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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SAT JAN 11 03:31:02 UTC 2025

NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SAT JAN 11 03:31:02 UTC 2025.

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SPC MD 34

MD 0034 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0034
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0927 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2025

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 110327Z - 110600Z

SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE HEAVIEST ICE
ACCRETION RATES WILL BE IN THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

DISCUSSION...03Z MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS STRONG 925-850 MB WAA
ADVECTION OVERSPREADING THE CAROLINAS, LIKELY SUPPORTING
ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THIS LAYER, WHILE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. THE AFOREMENTIONED
THERMODYNAMIC VERTICAL PROFILE SUPPORTS CONTINUED FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL, AS DEMONSTRATED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ON A WIDESPREAD
BASIS. THE PRIMARY BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION (AND ASSOCIATED
HIGHER ICE ACCRETION RATES) IS RAPIDLY SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS. AS SUCH, .06 IN/3 H ICE ACCRETION RATES ARE MOST
LIKELY CLOSER TO THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STILL, MRMS
MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED LIGHTER RAINFALL (LIKELY
FREEZING) STILL ONGOING AS FAR WEST AS THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. AS SUCH, AT LEAST LIGHT FREEZING RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.

..SQUITIERI.. 01/11/2025

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 33967767 33837903 33878082 34378200 35048216 35508176
36107965 36277778 36167691 35617616 35157631 34547688
33967767

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SPC JAN 11, 2025 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0652 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2025

VALID 110100Z - 111200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THE U.S.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

LITTLE TO NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CONUS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN FL AND SOUTHERN
GA THIS EVENING, SUPPORTING LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION. MINIMAL SBCAPE
WILL EXIST OVER PARTS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND
A FEW LIGHTNING FLASHES CANNOT BE RULED OUT THERE. OVER LAND, LITTLE
TO NO ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS FORECAST, AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
APPEAR MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

..JEWELL.. 01/11/2025

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