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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2024 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO +----------------------------------------------------------------------------+

SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF MON NOV 18 18:04:01 UTC 2024

NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF MON NOV 18 18:04:01 UTC 2024.

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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF MON NOV 18 18:04:01 UTC 2024

NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF MON NOV 18 18:04:01 UTC 2024.

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SPC NOV 18, 2024 1630 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

SPC 1630Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024

VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS
INTO LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
A RISK FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS IS FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND
VICINITY.

...EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS A NEGATIVELY TILTED
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS RAPIDLY MOVING
NORTHEAST, AND THIS FEATURE WILL REACH THE UPPER MIDWEST BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF AN ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE
MAY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ACROSS EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN TX THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A RISK FOR PRE-SQUALL
LINE UPDRAFTS DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON FROM EAST
TX INTO LA WHERE MLCAPE MAY REACH UP TO 500-1000 J/KG WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN POOR AND THE STRONGER
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME DISPLACED BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER, STRONG FLOW FIELDS WILL SUPPORT A RISK
FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS THAT DEVELOP. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS REGARDING THE OVERALL COVERAGE (ISOLATED) OF POTENTIAL
SUPERCELLS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED SEVERE RISK. HAVE LEFT THIS PORTION
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA UNCHANGED.

...CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW OVER NORTHWEST OK WITH THE
ZONE OF STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST
KS WHERE THE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK LATER TODAY. A MID-LEVEL
DRYSLOT OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO KS THIS AFTERNOON AND AID IN SOME WEAK
SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION.

IN WAKE OF MORNING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER KS, IT REMAINS
POSSIBLE SUFFICIENT WEAK DESTABILIZATION OCCURS BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE LOW FROM CENTRAL KS AND QUICKLY
SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MO VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS RESERVED
REGARDING OVERALL COVERAGE OF ROBUST STORM DEVELOPMENT DUE IN PART
TO EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER INHIBITING DESTABILIZATION, BUT IT
SEEMS POSSIBLE A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AND YIELD AN ISOLATED RISK FOR GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO.

..SMITH/THORNTON.. 11/18/2024

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SPC NOV 18, 2024 1730 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

SPC 1730Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1102 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF STATES ON
TUESDAY.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST...
THE POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MIDWEST ON D1/MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND WEAKEN ON
D2/TUESDAY. A SLOW ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL BE LEFT IN ITS WAKE
FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. AN
ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH ALL TIME DAILY
MAXIMUM PWAT VALUES LIKELY FROM SLIDELL, LA TO WILMINGTON, OH WITH
LIKELY TOP 5 MONTHLY ALL TIME MAXIMUM VALUES. AS A RESULT, EXTENSIVE
CLOUDCOVER AND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
WHICH WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION, FORCING WILL BE WEAKENING
THROUGH THE DAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE MEAGER INSTABILITY AND LACK
OF FORCING WILL LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL EXCEPT FOR WHERE
UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST, WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME INSTABILITY AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
LA, FAR SOUTHERN MS/AL, AND THE FL PANHANDLE, WHERE LOW 70S
DEWPOINTS WILL SUPPORT AROUND 250-500 J/KG MLCAPE. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT WITH 40
KNOTS OF FLOW AT 1KM AND LOW-LEVEL VEERING WINDS. THEREFORE, SOME
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STRONGER STORMS WHICH CAN DEVELOP IN THIS REGION DURING THE DAY.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
CELLULAR CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
AFTER 06Z WED AS TEMPERATURES COOL ALOFT AND 200-400 J/KG MLCAPE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD HAVE SOME GUSTY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM GIVEN AROUND 40 KNOTS OF SYNOPTIC FLOW
AROUND 500 METERS ABOVE THE SURFACE.

..BENTLEY.. 11/18/2024

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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK

SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0946 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024

VALID 181700Z - 191200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASING WINDS THROUGH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST AFTER 03 UTC, BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF MAINTAINING ELEVATED WIND/RH THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD REMAINS LIMITED. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

..MOORE.. 11/18/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024/

...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL GENERALLY BE MINIMAL TODAY, THERE
WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY ELEVATED CONDITIONS ALONG THE
SANTA BARBARA COAST. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD. AT LEAST FOR SOME PORTION
OF THE DAY THIS WILL PLACE STRONGER MID-LEVEL WINDS WITH SOME
COMPONENT ACROSS THE WESTERN TRANSVERSE RANGES. COUPLED WITH
LOW-LEVEL SURFACE RIDGING NORTH OF THE TERRAIN, DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING PART OF THE AFTERNOON. RH REDUCTIONS TO SUFFICIENTLY
DRY LEVELS ARE THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY. VALUES NEAR 20-25% APPEAR
POSSIBLE AT LEAST BRIEFLY IN THE LEE OF THE TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE IN
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INTENSIFY TOWARDS TUESDAY
MORNING, THOUGH RH WILL REMAIN TOO HIGH FOR ANY APPRECIABLE FIRE
WEATHER THREAT.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

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