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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF MON DEC 9 03:01:01 UTC 2024

NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF MON DEC 9 03:01:01 UTC 2024.

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SPC MD 2252

MD 2252 CONCERNING BLIZZARD FOR EASTERN MONTANA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2252
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0859 PM CST SUN DEC 08 2024

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN MONTANA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA

CONCERNING...BLIZZARD

VALID 090259Z - 090900Z

SUMMARY...SPORADIC BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE STEADILY BETWEEN
06-12 UTC AS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FALL RATES COINCIDE WITH 30-35
MPH WINDS.

DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN MT HAVE BEEN STEADILY
FALLING TO BELOW FREEZING AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS HAS BEEN PROMOTING A CHANGE OVER FROM A
WINTRY MIX TO PREDOMINANTLY SNOW, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE LOW
TRANSLATES EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SUSTAINED GRADIENT
WINDS BETWEEN 30-35 MPH ARE BEING OBSERVED WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF
40-45 MPH. BLOWING SNOW MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW FALL RATES (0.25-0.5 IN/HOUR) AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW 30S, THESE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL RESULT IN SPORADIC/TRANSIENT
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS LIKELY WHERE GUSTS EXCEED 40 MPH. EARLY INDICATIONS OF
THIS TREND HAVE ALREADY BEEN NOTED ACROSS NORTHEAST MT WHERE
PERIODIC VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DOWN TO 1/2 MILE HAVE BEEN COINCIDENT
WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. SUCH CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE COMMON
ACROSS EASTERN MT/FAR WESTERN ND AS THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE PUSHES
SOUTH AND SUPPORTS SNOW AS THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE. RECENT
HRRR SOLUTIONS SUGGEST SPORADIC BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE I-94 CORRIDOR AS EARLY AS 05-06 UTC.

..MOORE.. 12/09/2024

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON 48760638 48770564 48700492 48540444 47410350 46950331
46500343 46100377 45860421 45840482 45930550 46150620
46550671 46950713 47420737 47950743 48230730 48590696
48760638

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SPC DEC 9, 2024 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 PM CST SUN DEC 08 2024

VALID 090100Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID TO
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY, SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. 00 UTC
SOUNDINGS FROM THE REGION SHOW MINIMAL BUOYANCY, BUT LOW TO
MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION, COUPLED WITH WEAK DEEP ASCENT/MID-LEVEL
COOLING, WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR SPORADIC
LIGHTNING FLASHES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. WEAK
CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KS AND INTO MO IN
THE VICINITY OF THE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM WHERE TEMPERATURES
ALOFT ARE RELATIVELY COOLER AND ASCENT IS SOMEWHAT STRONGER.
ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE OVERZEALOUS IN DEPICTING
MUCAPE BASED ON THE OBSERVED 00 UTC SGF SOUNDING, WEAK CONVECTIVE
TOWERS NOTED IN IR IMAGERY IN PROXIMITY TO THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM,
ALONG WITH A WEAK SIGNAL FOR CI ACROSS EASTERN MO/WESTERN IL,
PROMPTED A NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE THUNDER AREA (THOUGH THE
PROBABILITY OF LIGHTNING REMAINS FAIRLY LOW AT AROUND 10%).

..MOORE.. 12/09/2024

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