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PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2024 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO +----------------------------------------------------------------------------+

SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 712

WW 712 SEVERE TSTM TX 250015Z - 250600Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 712
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
615 PM CST TUE DEC 24 2024

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INTO EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT FROM 615 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...SUPERCELLS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AROUND 1-1.75
INCHES IN DIAMETER THIS EVENING. EVENTUAL UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A LINE
MAY RESULT IN SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS. A TORNADO OR
TWO ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELL.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST
OF LUFKIN TX TO 45 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF COLLEGE STATION TX. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.

&&

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
27020.

...GLEASON

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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 712 STATUS REPORTS

WW 0712 STATUS UPDATES


STATUS REPORT ON WW 712

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE AUS
TO 40 NW LFK TO 50 SSW SHV.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2278

..WEINMAN..12/25/24

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...HGX...EWX...

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 712

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

TXC005-015-021-041-051-055-089-123-149-177-185-201-225-285-287- 291-313-339-347-373-407-455-471-473-477-250440-

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANGELINA AUSTIN BASTROP
BRAZOS BURLESON CALDWELL
COLORADO DEWITT FAYETTE
GONZALES GRIMES HARRIS
HOUSTON LAVACA LEE
LIBERTY MADISON MONTGOMERY
NACOGDOCHES POLK SAN JACINTO
TRINITY WALKER WALLER
WASHINGTON

THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

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SPC MD 2278

MD 2278 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 712... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2278
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0849 PM CST TUE DEC 24 2024

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 712...

VALID 250249Z - 250415Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 712
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 712 THROUGH AT LEAST 04Z.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR DATA SHOWS ONGOING SEMI-DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS TRACKING SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL
CONFLUENCE ZONE IN CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX. THE EWX VWP CONTINUES TO
SAMPLE AROUND 35-40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR ORIENTED MOSTLY PERPENDICULAR
TO THE LOW-LEVEL ZONE OF ASCENT. THIS, COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE
BUOYANCY/STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES (SEE CRP 00Z SOUNDING), WILL
SUPPORT THE MAINTENANCE OF THESE SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. THE
PRIMARY RISK WITH THESE STORMS CONTINUES TO BE LARGE HAIL (GENERALLY
UP TO 1.75 INCHES), THOUGH AN ISOLATED 2 INCH HAILSTONE CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. AS MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/LARGE-SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES
OVERSPREADING THIS ACTIVITY AHEAD OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH,
STORMS MAY TEND TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A LINE, GENERALLY REDUCING THE
HAIL THREAT. LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE, THOUGH
INCREASING NOCTURNAL STATIC STABILITY MAY LESSEN THE THREAT TO SOME
EXTENT.

..WEINMAN.. 12/25/2024

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...EWX...

LAT...LON 29219800 30499682 30539654 30259628 29749651 28949730
28939763 29029791 29219800

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SPC DEC 25, 2024 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 PM CST TUE DEC 24 2024

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE GUSTS, WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TONIGHT.

...01Z UPDATE...

SOUTHERN-STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG TOWARD THE LOWER SABINE
RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL ENSURE AT LEAST A
MODEST LLJ ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST INTO SOUTHERN AR, AHEAD OF A
SURFACE FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE SLOWLY ACROSS EAST TX.
WHILE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY NOTEWORTHY ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR, A CORRIDOR OF 1000+ MLCAPE DOES EXTEND INTO EAST TX
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN THE ABSENCE OF APPRECIABLE INHIBITION, SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS-THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EVOLVED ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM WEST OF KILLEEN INTO THE ARKLATEX. THIS
CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE AS LARGE-SCALE
FORCING OVERSPREADS THIS MORE BUOYANT AIR MASS, WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S-MID 70S. CURRENT THINKING IS
FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ACTIVE, AND PRONOUNCED, AS THE
BOUNDARY SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTH TOWARD THE UPPER TX COAST. DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUSTAINED, MULTI-FACETED UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
GENERATING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

..DARROW.. 12/25/2024

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