STORM PREDICTION CENTER 27-DEC24
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COPYRIGHT 2024 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO +----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
SPC TORNADO WATCH 716
WW 716 TORNADO LA TX CW 270010Z - 270800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 716
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
610 PM CST THU DEC 26 2024
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA
FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 610 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CST.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR A FEW
TORNADOES THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THEY
SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60-65 MPH AND ISOLATED HAIL MAY ALSO
OCCUR.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE MILES
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF NATCHITOCHES LA
TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF LAKE CHARLES LA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 714...WW 715...
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN
STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...GLEASON
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 716 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0716 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 716
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE GLS
TO 20 ESE BPT TO 30 S POE TO 40 WSW MLU.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2288
..THORNTON..12/27/24
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 716
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC001-003-019-021-023-039-053-059-079-127-270440-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ACADIA ALLEN CALCASIEU
CALDWELL CAMERON EVANGELINE
JEFFERSON DAVIS LA SALLE RAPIDES
WINN
GMZ432-270440-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
CALCASIEU LAKE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 715 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0715 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 715
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW LBX
TO 25 NNW BPT TO 50 ENE LFK TO 25 N IER.
..THORNTON..12/27/24
ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...HGX...LCH...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 715
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC039-071-167-270140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRAZORIA CHAMBERS GALVESTON
GMZ335-270140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GALVESTON BAY
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 714 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0714 STATUS UPDATES
READ MORE
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SPC MD 2288
MD 2288 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 716... FOR LOUISIANA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2288
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0853 PM CST THU DEC 26 2024
AREAS AFFECTED...LOUISIANA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 716...
VALID 270253Z - 270430Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 716 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SOME TORNADO RISK CONTINUES ACROSS LOUISIANA THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION...STRONGLY DYNAMIC SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EJECTING ACROSS
THE ARKLATEX THIS EVENING. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE, LLJ IS
STRENGTHENING ACROSS NORTHERN LA. STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR A CORRIDOR OF STRONG-SEVERE
CONVECTION THAT IS PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS WW716. WITHIN THIS
CORRIDOR, A FEW LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELLS ARE EMBEDDED. ONE,
POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELL, IS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS RAPIDES
PARISH. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGESTS THIS IS NEAR THE NORTHERN
LIMITS OF SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY, BUT VERY STRONG SHEAR MAY ALLOW
THIS UPDRAFT TO PERSIST A BIT FARTHER DOWNSTREAM BEFORE IT WEAKENS
APPRECIABLY.
WHILE A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY SPREAD JUST EAST OF THE WATCH INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF JAN/LIX CWA, LATEST THINKING IS UPDRAFTS SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE MS DELTA REGION.
..DARROW.. 12/27/2024
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 29729416 32159338 32159185 29739266 29729416
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SPC DEC 27, 2024 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 PM CST THU DEC 26 2024
VALID 270100Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS,
HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES, WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS, LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING.
...SOUTHEAST TEXAS/LOUISIANA/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW IS IN NORTHEAST
TEXAS WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH EAST AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FROM FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO FAR WESTERN LOUISIANA. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 50S F IN SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS TO THE UPPER 60S F IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE MOIST CORRIDOR, THE RAP HAS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 5 TO 6 C/KM, WITH MLCAPE IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE,
EXCEPT IN THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON AREA WHERE MLCAPE IS NEAR 1500 J/KG.
IN SPITE OF THE RELATIVELY POOR THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT, STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE MOIST SECTOR. THE
FORT POLK WSR-88D VWP APPEARS TO BE SAMPLING THE STRONGEST
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 70 KNOTS. THE STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH
CELLS THAT REMAIN SEMI-DISCRETE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SUPERCELLS AND
ORGANIZED MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. IN ADDITION, A NARROW 40 TO 50 KNOT
LOW-LEVEL JET IS ANALYZED BY THE RAP FROM FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR, ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE,
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A TORNADO THREAT FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS THIS EVENING. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE THE GREATEST
WITH SUPERCELLS AND QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS.
..BROYLES.. 12/27/2024
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