• STORM PREDICTION CENTER 27-DEC24

    From LU9DCE@4:902/6 to WW on Fri Jan 3 21:00:35 2025

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    SPC TORNADO WATCH 716

    WW 716 TORNADO LA TX CW 270010Z - 270800Z


    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
    TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 716
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    610 PM CST THU DEC 26 2024

    THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

    * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
    WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA
    FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
    COASTAL WATERS

    * EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 610 PM
    UNTIL 200 AM CST.

    * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
    A FEW TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
    SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE
    ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

    SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR A FEW
    TORNADOES THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THEY
    SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
    LOUISIANA. DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60-65 MPH AND ISOLATED HAIL MAY ALSO
    OCCUR.

    THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE MILES
    EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF NATCHITOCHES LA
    TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF LAKE CHARLES LA. FOR A COMPLETE
    DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
    (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

    REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
    TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
    AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
    THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
    AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

    &&

    OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 714...WW 715...

    AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
    SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
    GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN
    STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

    ...GLEASON

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    SPC TORNADO WATCH 716 STATUS REPORTS

    WW 0716 STATUS UPDATES


    STATUS REPORT ON WW 716

    SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE GLS
    TO 20 ESE BPT TO 30 S POE TO 40 WSW MLU.

    FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2288

    ..THORNTON..12/27/24

    ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...

    STATUS REPORT FOR WT 716

    SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

    LAC001-003-019-021-023-039-053-059-079-127-270440-

    LA
    . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

    ACADIA ALLEN CALCASIEU
    CALDWELL CAMERON EVANGELINE
    JEFFERSON DAVIS LA SALLE RAPIDES
    WINN

    GMZ432-270440-

    CW

    . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

    CALCASIEU LAKE

    THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
    REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
    INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
    CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

    READ MORE



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    SPC TORNADO WATCH 715 STATUS REPORTS

    WW 0715 STATUS UPDATES


    STATUS REPORT ON WW 715

    SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW LBX
    TO 25 NNW BPT TO 50 ENE LFK TO 25 N IER.

    ..THORNTON..12/27/24

    ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...HGX...LCH...

    STATUS REPORT FOR WT 715

    SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

    TXC039-071-167-270140-

    TX
    . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

    BRAZORIA CHAMBERS GALVESTON

    GMZ335-270140-

    CW

    . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

    GALVESTON BAY

    THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
    REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
    INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
    CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

    READ MORE



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    SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 714 STATUS REPORTS

    WW 0714 STATUS UPDATES


    READ MORE



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    SPC MD 2288

    MD 2288 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 716... FOR LOUISIANA


    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2288
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    0853 PM CST THU DEC 26 2024

    AREAS AFFECTED...LOUISIANA

    CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 716...

    VALID 270253Z - 270430Z

    THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 716 CONTINUES.

    SUMMARY...SOME TORNADO RISK CONTINUES ACROSS LOUISIANA THIS EVENING.

    DISCUSSION...STRONGLY DYNAMIC SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EJECTING ACROSS
    THE ARKLATEX THIS EVENING. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE, LLJ IS
    STRENGTHENING ACROSS NORTHERN LA. STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
    APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR A CORRIDOR OF STRONG-SEVERE
    CONVECTION THAT IS PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS WW716. WITHIN THIS
    CORRIDOR, A FEW LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELLS ARE EMBEDDED. ONE,
    POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELL, IS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS RAPIDES
    PARISH. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGESTS THIS IS NEAR THE NORTHERN
    LIMITS OF SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY, BUT VERY STRONG SHEAR MAY ALLOW
    THIS UPDRAFT TO PERSIST A BIT FARTHER DOWNSTREAM BEFORE IT WEAKENS
    APPRECIABLY.

    WHILE A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY SPREAD JUST EAST OF THE WATCH INTO
    WESTERN PORTIONS OF JAN/LIX CWA, LATEST THINKING IS UPDRAFTS SHOULD
    GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE MS DELTA REGION.

    ..DARROW.. 12/27/2024

    ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...

    LAT...LON 29729416 32159338 32159185 29739266 29729416

    READ MORE



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    SPC DEC 27, 2024 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

    SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK

    DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    0651 PM CST THU DEC 26 2024

    VALID 270100Z - 271200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
    THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...

    ...SUMMARY...
    STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS,
    HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES, WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
    TEXAS, LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING.

    ...SOUTHEAST TEXAS/LOUISIANA/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...
    THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
    ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW IS IN NORTHEAST
    TEXAS WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH EAST AND SOUTHEAST
    TEXAS. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE
    FRONT FROM FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO FAR WESTERN LOUISIANA. AHEAD OF
    THE FRONT, SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 50S F IN SOUTHERN
    ARKANSAS TO THE UPPER 60S F IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. ALONG THE
    WESTERN EDGE OF THE MOIST CORRIDOR, THE RAP HAS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
    RATES OF 5 TO 6 C/KM, WITH MLCAPE IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE,
    EXCEPT IN THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON AREA WHERE MLCAPE IS NEAR 1500 J/KG.
    IN SPITE OF THE RELATIVELY POOR THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT, STRONG
    DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE MOIST SECTOR. THE
    FORT POLK WSR-88D VWP APPEARS TO BE SAMPLING THE STRONGEST
    DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 70 KNOTS. THE STRONG
    DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH
    CELLS THAT REMAIN SEMI-DISCRETE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SUPERCELLS AND
    ORGANIZED MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
    SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. IN ADDITION, A NARROW 40 TO 50 KNOT
    LOW-LEVEL JET IS ANALYZED BY THE RAP FROM FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO
    NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR, ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE,
    SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A TORNADO THREAT FOR SEVERAL
    MORE HOURS THIS EVENING. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE THE GREATEST
    WITH SUPERCELLS AND QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS.

    ..BROYLES.. 12/27/2024

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