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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SUN JAN 5 02:40:02 UTC 2025

NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SUN JAN 5 02:40:02 UTC 2025.

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SPC MD 2

MD 0002 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR WESTERN MISSOURI


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0002
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0838 PM CST SAT JAN 04 2025

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR WESTERN MISSOURI

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 050238Z - 050845Z

SUMMARY...AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY INTENSIFY LATER THIS
EVENING, SPREADING OUT OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR WESTERN
MISSOURI. SMALL HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR FROM FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO
SOUTHERN KANSAS.

DISCUSSION...LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN PERSISTS THIS EVENING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL KS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN OK. VWPS
INDICATE INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW JUST ABOVE THE STABLE/COLD
BOUNDARY LAYER, WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION
AND LIFT ATOP THE COLD AIR MASS.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS/ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER FAR NORTHERN OK INTO SOUTHERN KS BETWEEN
03-06Z. AS THIS ACTIVITY EXPANDS NORTHEAST AND NORTH OF THE FREEZING
LINE, MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG MUCAPE WILL DEVELOP BY 06Z,
AND VERY SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..JEWELL.. 01/05/2025

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 37939408 37899458 37839508 37749580 37689647 37599709
37539764 37499813 37579841 37899841 38419798 38689652
38829442 38659376 38389367 38119374 37939408

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SPC JAN 5, 2025 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0629 PM CST SAT JAN 04 2025

VALID 050100Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD TO
THE MID-SOUTH. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

...01Z UPDATE...

NO CHANGES ARE WARRANTED FROM THE 20Z OUTLOOK.

STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS ADVANCING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH-LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS NOW
EVIDENT ACROSS THE PLAINS. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND ELEVATED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THIS REGION EXHIBIT
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, BUT POOR MOISTURE QUALITY. EVEN SO,
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARM
ADVECTION CORRIDOR, FROM KANSAS INTO THE MID-SOUTH.

..DARROW.. 01/05/2025

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