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SPC TORNADO WATCH 2

WW 2 TORNADO AR LA MS 051935Z - 060300Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 2
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
135 PM CST SUN JAN 5 2025

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR EASTERN ARKANSAS
EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 135 PM UNTIL
900 PM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AHEAD A SQUALL LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MORE
INTENSE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLULAR AND POSE A RISK FOR
TORNADOES, A COUPLE OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG. SCATTERED DAMAGING
GUSTS AND A RISK FOR A TORNADO WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE SQUALL LINE
AS IT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE MILES
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF OXFORD MS TO
75 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF ALEXANDRIA LA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION
OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 1...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN
STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.

...SMITH

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SPC TORNADO WATCH 2 STATUS REPORTS

WW 0002 STATUS UPDATES


STATUS REPORT ON WW 2

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW LFT
TO 50 NNE LFT TO 20 SE HEZ TO 50 ENE HEZ TO 55 S GWO TO 20 WNW
CBM TO 15 SE TUP TO 30 NE TUP.

..JEWELL..01/06/25

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LCH...JAN...LIX...

STATUS REPORT FOR WT 2

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

LAC033-037-077-091-097-121-125-060240-

LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA POINTE COUPEE
ST. HELENA ST. LANDRY WEST BATON ROUGE
WEST FELICIANA

MSC005-007-019-023-025-029-037-049-061-063-065-069-075-077-079- 085-087-089-099-101-103-105-113-121-123-127-129-147-157-159-
060240-

MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

AMITE ATTALA CHOCTAW
CLARKE CLAY COPIAH
FRANKLIN HINDS JASPER
JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS KEMPER
LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LEAKE
LINCOLN LOWNDES MADISON
NESHOBA NEWTON NOXUBEE

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SPC TORNADO WATCH 1 STATUS REPORTS

WW 0001 STATUS UPDATES


STATUS REPORT ON WW 1

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW BPT
TO 30 SW POE TO 25 W ESF TO 25 NNW ESF TO 25 SSW MLU TO 15 E MLU.

..JEWELL..01/05/25

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...LCH...HGX...

STATUS REPORT FOR WT 1

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

LAC003-011-021-043-059-079-115-052340-

LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEN BEAUREGARD CALDWELL
GRANT LA SALLE RAPIDES
VERNON

THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

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SPC MD 17

MD 0017 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN OHIO INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0017
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0939 PM CST SUN JAN 05 2025

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHERN OHIO INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 060339Z - 060745Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW IN THE VICINITY OF WILMINGTON, OH WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO WEST VIRGINIA TONIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH
PER HOUR POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...STRONG ASCENT FROM A POTENT 850 MB JET AS WELL AS AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT DENDRITIC GROWTH
AND SNOWFALL RATES OF AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR TONIGHT. RECENT
OBSERVATION FROM LEBANON, OH IN CONJUNCTION WITH KILN RADAR DATA
SUGGEST MODERATE SNOW WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER POCKETS IS OCCURRING.
SNOWFALL IS PRIMARILY FOCUSED NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER (PER KILN
DUAL-POL DATA) AND THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THAT TO CONTINUE. THESE
HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO WEST
VIRGINIA.

..WENDT.. 01/06/2025

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LWX...PBZ...RLX...ILN...

LAT...LON 39468449 39698441 39988331 39788046 39687918 39257873
38737907 38508019 38618173 38888324 39268445 39308458
39468449

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SPC MD 15

MD 0015 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0015
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0512 PM CST SUN JAN 05 2025

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 052312Z - 060415Z

SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL FREEZING RAIN, MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES, IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM EST.

DISCUSSION...FREEZING RAIN CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. CONTINUED ASCENT FROM
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND THE APPROACH OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH
WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED PRECIPITATION INTO THIS EVENING. REGIONAL
RADAR SHOWS SOME HEAVIER POCKETS OF PRECIPITATION MOVING EASTWARD
FROM WESTERN KENTUCKY/SOUTHERN INDIANA. DUAL-POL RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TRANSITION TO SNOW IS ROUGHLY ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER AND SHOULD REMAIN IN THAT GENERAL VICINITY. BY MIDNIGHT
TO 1 AM EST, WEAKENING ASCENT AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO LIMIT OVERALL PRECIPITATION RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR
ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

..WENDT.. 01/05/2025

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON 38158726 38648664 38558409 38218279 37848256 37628298
37548379 37548469 37768671 37938710 38158726

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SPC JAN 6, 2025 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0634 PM CST SUN JAN 05 2025

VALID 060100Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. SCATTERED
DAMAGING GUSTS, AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES, REMAIN THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

...01Z UPDATE...

WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF KANSAS
CITY, ADVANCING EAST IN LINE WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS
FEATURE WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN IL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A
SECONDARY MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX TRANSLATES ACROSS EAST TX INTO CENTRAL
MS BY 12Z. AN ELONGATED CORRIDOR OF STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION,
ROUGHLY 600 MI LONG, EXTENDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM NORTHEAST
MS-SOUTHERN LA-OFF THE UPPER TX COAST. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
ARE NOTED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR, BUT THIS ACTIVITY MORE RESEMBLES A
SQUALL LINE WITH QLCS CHARACTERISTICS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS STRUGGLED
TO PRODUCE SEVERE AT TIMES, BUT LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN LIKELY
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE. EVEN SO, STRONG 0-3SRH DOES WARRANT CONCERN,
AND DESPITE THE MARGINAL BUOYANCY, TORNADO RISK CONTINUES,
ESPECIALLY WITH SUPERCELLS.

..DARROW.. 01/06/2025

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