SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP004
ARLP004 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP04
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 4 ARLP004
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA January 28, 2022
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP004
ARLP004 Propagation de K7RA

A new sunspot group appeared on January 20 and another on January
24, two more on January 25 and one more on January 26. But overall
solar activity declined from the previous week, January 13-19.
Average daily sunspot number declined from 94.4 to 39.6, and average
daily solar flux went from 112 to 97.6.

On January 27 the daily sunspot number was 85, much higher than the
average of 39.6 of the previous seven days, always a good signal for
increasing activity.

Predicted solar flux is 105 on January 28 through February 4, 108 on
February 5-6, 110 on February 7-8, 108 on February 9-10, then 106,
105, 103, 101, 100 and 95 on February 11-16, 92 on February 17-18,
90 on February 19-21, then 88, 87, 92 and 94 on February 22-25, 96
on February 26-28, 98 and 100 on March 1-2, 105 on March 3-4, then
110 on March 5, and 108 on March 6-7.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 12 and 10 on January 28-30, 5 on
January 31 through February 3, then 15 and 10 on February 4-5, 5 on
February 6-9, then 12, 15 and 12 on February 10-12, 5 on February
13-19, 8 on February 20-23, then 5, 12 and 10 on February 24-26, 5
on February 27 through March 2, then 15 and 10 on March 3-4, and 5
on March 5-8.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

"Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - January 27, 2022 (Free continuation of my Earth's
magnetic field activity predictions, published between 1978 - 2021.)

"Since the end of last November, fluctuations in the level of solar
activity within the twenty-seven-day periodicity have been more
regular, which contributes to the success of the forecasts. This
also applies to the occurrence of coronal holes, so predictions of
the Earth's magnetic field activity are also more accurate
(including the next recurrent geomagnetic disturbance, which we
expect on/about February 4). The overall level of solar activity is
rising faster than long-term forecasts suggest, so it can be assumed
that the maximum of the current 11-year cycle will be higher than
the previous one."

"Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 28 to February
03, 2022:

"Quiet: Jan 28, Jan 31-Feb 3
Unsettled: Jan 29-31
Active: Jan 28-29, Feb 3-4
Minor storm: Feb 4
Major storm: 0
Severe storm: 0

"Geomagnetic activity summary:

"Friday, January 28, we expect quiet conditions. Then, starting
Saturday, January 29, we expect an unsettled to active period ending
by January 31. At the start of February, we expect quiet conditions
to Thursday, February 3. About February 3-4, we expect a new active
episode which can reach a minor storm level.

"Tomas Bayer, RWC Prague Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism Budkov observatory (BDV)."

On January 16 a local Seattle ham reported:

"Amazing Aurora opening on 10m Friday at 2100-2230 UTC, CW and SSB.
Northern Europe only, GM, DL, SP, UA1, EW, OZ, LA, SM, and best
signals were from OH. VERY unusual and first time Western Washington
big opening to EU in years, and it was worked by several W7s. DX
Maps showed lots of lines over the North Pole, very late night in
Scandinavia."

I often ignore stories from British tabloids, but this one seems to
be not overly alarmist:

https://bit.ly/3s0kThs

WB8VLC, from Salem Oregon reported:

"At 2353 UTC on Jan 22 on 10 meter CW at 28.066 MHz I was hearing
KFS, a non-ham which was at once a Maritime station in California
calling CQ CQ for the past 10 minutes, then he faded away or he shut
down at 2400 UTC.

"I was just in QSO with FK8IK in New Caledonia on 10 meter CW after
which I saw another fast but weak CW station above us and it was KFS
calling CQ, very weak at first until I moved my beam south and then
he was strong 569 with some QSB sending about 25 WPM on 28.066 MHz.

"Aside from typical South America on 10 SSB not much today except
for FK8IK on both 12 and 10 CW but he was 599 on both bands.

"2022-01-22 2314 UTC 24.902 MHz CW FK8IK 599 both ways
2022-01-22 2337 UTC 28.010 MHz CW FK8IK 599
2022-01-22 2353 UTC 28.066 MHz CW KFS

"The KFS activity was legitimate."

Regarding rising activity versus forecasts, back in Propagation
Forecast Bulletin ARLP002 we included this link:

https://bit.ly/3GsbuFI .

WA7AA responded (edited):

"They went on to say sunspot counts exceeded predicted values for 15
straight months, and the monthly value at the end of December 2021
was the highest in 5 years and more than twice the value forecast by
the NOAA/NASA prediction panel.

"This isn't the first place I've seen this claim from the NOAA/NASA
prediction panel and I am wondering if you have any contacts in that
group to ask them for some clarification and explanation. There are
several problems with this 'over-performance' claim they excitedly
show in the link above. The first is that the graph on that link
places the last solar minimum several months after the actual
minimum that occurred in November 2019. That alone can skew any
subsequent analysis and make it prone to a misinterpretation.

"The next thing is the graph shows the length of their predicted
Solar Cycle 25 as 14 years long! This is nowhere near any cycle
length in recorded history that, as we all know, averages to around
11 years. No one can even predict a cycle length, so where did they
get this from?

"And finally, their predicted cycle graph is a smooth one peak cycle
(slow rising slopes as a result), while most cycles so far have been
dual peak cycles (steeper slopes and a sort of a plateau as a
result).

"Once you add all three of these errors into the observation, it is
easy to make a claim that Solar Cycle 25 is over-performing the
predictions ('twice the value') made before it started, that
generally placed it in the same strength as Solar Cycle 24 within
the 5-10% margin.

"However, when the curve is adjusted to start in November 2019, when
it's compressed to the average 11 years length and tweaked to a
double peak graph (in other words, more or less carbon-copied the
Solar Cycle 24 graph), it quickly becomes obvious that Solar Cycle
25 is so far following the last cycle curve almost exactly,
insignificantly higher at 3-4 spots per month.

"A recent cycle comparison at, http://www.solen.info/solar/images/comparison_recent_cycles.png
confirms this observation.

"I am by no means an expert in propagation predictions in any way,
but it just seems weird that anyone connected to NOAA and/or NASA
would make such an error and proceed to stick to it for so long. Am
I missing something here? Was this a bad case of wishful thinking on
their part? I would like to know what their explanation is."

N0JK reported:

"A major sporadic-E opening on 6 Meters took place in the 2022 ARRL
January VHF Contest on Saturday afternoon January 15. Starting
around 2100 UTC, stations in Florida appeared in Kansas. The opening
grew and spread and by 2300 UTC 6 Meters was open to the entire
southeast part of the country.

"I received a PSK flag from ZF1EJ and logged XE2X (EL06). The
opening then spread east to Ohio and north to Minnesota (N0JCF
EN35). KF0M (EM17) worked Cuba and almost completed with HI3AA. The
opening faded at 0046 UTC with K3VN (EL98) last in my log. I was
operating single operator portable 10 watts with MFJ-9406 and a 2 el
Yagi. Cold and windy! The next morning a short 6 Meter Es opening
to Mexico with XE2YWH (DL92) worked at 1435 UTC. All contacts FT8.

"The sporadic-E was a real treat for the January VHF Contest."

Here is a report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

https://youtu.be/vsLIY2Y0xQs

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for January 20 through 26, 2022 were 60, 23, 22, 22,
26, 53, and 71, with a mean of 39.6. 10.7 cm flux was 99.3, 97.3,
95.2, 93.5, 95.2, 100.9, and 101.8, with a mean of 97.6. Estimated
planetary A indices were 5, 8, 10, 8, 4, 13, and 10, with a mean of
8.3. Middle latitude A index was 5, 5, 7, 7, 3, 10, and 8, with a
mean of 6.4.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (954:895/7)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP005
ARLP005 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP05
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 5 ARLP005
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA February 7, 2022
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP005
ARLP005 Propagation de K7RA

Our Sun was much more active over the past week, with average daily
sunspot number more than doubling from 39.6 in the previous week to
81.3 in the current reporting week, January 27 to February 2.

Geomagnetic indicator average daily Planetary A index changed from
8.3 to 10.1, while average middle latitude A index was unchanged at
6.4.

Predicted solar flux for the near term is 126, 130 and 125 on
February 4-6, 120 on February 7-10, 128 on February 11-12, 125 on
February 13-14, 120 on February 15-17, 128 on February 18-21, 125 on
February 22-25, 128 on February 26, 132 on February 27-28, 135 on
March 1-3, 125 on March 4-7, 128 on March 8-11 and 125 on March
12-13.

Predicted planetary A index is 12, 20, 18 and 10 February 4-7, 5 on
February 8-10, 8 on February 11, 5 on February 12-16, then 10, 12, 8
and 5 on February 17-20, then 10, 8, 5 and 8 on February 21-24, then
12, 8, 5 and 8 on February 25-28, then 10, 5 and 5 on March 1-3, 20
and 12 on March 4-5, 5 on March 6-8, then 12 and 8 on March 9-10,
then 5 on March 11-15, then 10, 12 and 8 on March 16-18.

From F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

"Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere, February 3, 2022

"The solar radio flux of 130 and the daily sunspot number up to SSN
of 100 at the end of January, compared to the equal heliographic
length in past solar rotations, showed how unreliable the
twenty-seven-day quasi-periodicity as the guideline for the
predictions can be.

"The M1 solar flare in AR2936 on January 29th was also a surprise,
which because of the magnetic configuration we did not expect. On
the contrary, it was no surprise that the accompanied LDE, which
triggered halo CME, was followed by an intensification of the solar
wind and an increase in the Earth's geomagnetic field activity. A
major storm was expected on February 2nd. However, it arrived a day
later, on 3rd, including major changes in the parameters of the
Earth's ionosphere in the form of its positive phase around noon
UTC."

Interesting new Solar Cycle 25 update, thanks to K9LA and K1HTV:

https://helioforecast.space/solarcycle

Also, a comment from Dr. Ron Turner of ANSER Research Institute in
Virginia, via Spaceweather.com. He thinks it may be too early to
expect a strong Solar Cycle 25.

This graph shows why Turner is skeptical:

https://www.spaceweather.com/images2022/03feb22/sunspotcounts.png

"Solar Cycle 25 is doing something interesting. It is mimicking old
Solar Cycle 24 (SC24).

"I took sunspot numbers from the early years of SC24 (the red dashed
line) and overlaid them on SC25," says Turner. "They're an almost
perfect match."

"This is significant because Solar Cycle 24 went on to become the
weakest solar cycle in a century. Its hot start did not lead to a
strong maximum. Turner isn't saying that Solar Cycle 25 will
likewise be a dud. But, rather, "these early sunspot numbers are not
enough to guarantee a strong cycle."

David Moore shared this article about a big solar event over 9,000
years ago discovered via ice core analysis:

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/01/220126144204.htm

Update from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/QgJEkh1rNZg

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for January 27 through February 2, 2022 were 85, 77,
74, 70, 100, 88, and 75, with a mean of 81.3. 10.7 cm flux was
107.1, 113.4, 125.3, 129.6, 129.5, 128.6, and 128.2, with a mean of
123.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 8, 17, 10, 10, 7, and
12, with a mean of 10.1. Middle latitude A index was 5, 5, 7, 7, 3,
10, and 8, with a mean of 6.4.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (954:895/7)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP006
ARLP006 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP06
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 6 ARLP006
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA February 11, 2022
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP006
ARLP006 Propagation de K7RA

Three new sunspot groups appeared this week, on February 3, 6 and 8.
Average daily sunspot number rose slightly from 81.3 last week to
83.9 in this reporting week, February 3-9.

Average daily solar flux increased from 123.1 to 126, also a modest
change.

Solar flares and geomagnetic storms through the week raised the
average daily planetary A index from 10.1 to 14.4, and the middle
latitude A index, measured at one location in Virginia, went from
6.4 to 9.6.

At 0523 UTC on February 11 the Australian Space Forecast Centre
issued a Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning: "A recurrent coronal hole
is expected to cause unsettled to active conditions with possible
minor storm periods on 12 to 13 February."

A geomagnetic storm on February 4 brought down 40 of the low earth
orbit Starlink satellites, even though the storm was not especially
robust. But from February 3-4, the high latitude college A index
measured near Fairbanks, Alaska was 48 and 61, respectively, a level
that assures the appearance of aurora borealis.

NN4X sent this on the LEO satellites loss:

https://bit.ly/3GCIQkd

Normally we think of geo-storms as a negative event regarding HF
propagation, but not always, as sometimes there is propagation via
bouncing signals off the aurora.

K7SS commented at 2030 UTC on February 10 in an email posting
titled, "EU aurora on 10 meter CW.

"Weak OH, SM, UA, opening now. All aurora sounding. Point 'em North
boys."

"All aurora sounding" refers to the unusual garbled fluttery sounds
of auroral propagation, and then advice to point your antenna north
to propagate signals via the aurora.

W7YED responded:

"Yeah, I saw 2 SM3s at around 2100 UTC calling CQ on 10m FT8. One
worked an XE, lasted about 5 minutes then went away. And now back to
the regularly scheduled Caribbean and SA stations. Things are
looking up on 10!"

So far in the year 2022 sunspots were visible on every day. Last
year 64 days had no sunspots, and in 2020, 208 days were spotless,
according to spaceweather.com.

Predicted solar flux values for the near term are 118 and 116 on
February 11-12, 112 on February 13-14, 110 on February 15-16, 112 on
February 17, 115 on February 18-19, 118 on February 20, 120 on
February 21-23, 125 on February 24-25, 120 on February 26 through
March 4, then 115 and 122 on March 5-6, 120 on March 7-9, 110 on
March 10-11, 115 on March 12-18, 118 on March 19, and 120 on March
20-22.

Predicted planetary A index is 20, 12, 22 and 25 on February 11-14,
then 20, 12, 8, 10 and 8 on February 15-19, then 5, 10, 8, 5, 8 and
12 on February 20-25, then 8 on February 26-27, 5 on February 28 to
March 2, then 12, 10, 15 and 10 on March 3-6, 5 on March 7-11, then
25 and 20 on March 12-13, 5 on March 14-15, then 10, 12 and 8 on
March 16-18.

From F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

"I would like to return once again to the solar flare M1 in AR2936
on January 29, accompanied by LDE (long-running event) see: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/space-weather-glossary, which
caused the halo CME. The CME was met near Earth by 49 Starlink
satellites launched into low Earth orbit from the Kennedy Space
Center in Florida on February 3.

"As a result, 40 of them did not get into the planned orbit and then
burned in the atmosphere in a controlled manner. The cost to launch
the Falcon 9 is $30 million dollars, one satellite is half a million
dollars, total damage to Elon Musk costs $50 million dollars.

"Solar activity in Solar Cycle 25 is rising faster than most models
expected. More accurate predictions of further developments are
complicated by the fact that there are several irregularly evolving
active areas on the Sun at the same time. For this reason, too, we
cannot rely on the twenty-seven-day periodicity, which is otherwise
a good tool for compiling forecasts.

"If we take advantage of it, we can expect the next major
disturbance on 13-14 February. The beginning of calm can be expected
since February 16 and quiet days since February 19. Solar flux
should not fall below 100 or rise too high above 130."

Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, with a great update, all 93 minutes:

https://youtu.be/uY3TMaExHkg

N8II reported from West Virginia on February 7:

"I was active in the VT, MN, and BC QSO Parties this past weekend.
Conditions were excellent to MN on 20M with loud signals from 1500
UTC until about 2230 UTC (our sunset was 2237 UTC). Even the mobiles
were very good copy, many quite loud on 20M. 40M suffered from D/E
layer absorption with almost all MN signals below my noise level
from 1700-2030 UTC. 80M was open well before MN sunset with workable
signals at 2300 UTC and some very good signals by 2330 UTC.

"15 and even 10 M were open to British Columbia both weekend days.
The peak of 10M propagation was in the 1900 UTC hour both days with
Saturday being better on both 20 and 15M. Several BC 10M signals
were over S9 on Saturday. There were many USA Rocky Mountain area
and west coast signals on the band as well. 20M conditions were
excellent Saturday from 1600-2400 UTC. 15/10 were slow to open
Sunday finally opening around 1830 UTC.

"Propagation to VT was about as expected, some loud signals
0000-0030 UTC on 40M, VT stations on 75/80M were mostly loud. 160M
signals were fairly weak Friday PM. There was no miracle Es opening
like last year, 20M was open on backscatter only and W1JXN was
worked on 15M CW backscatter just above the noise.

"Sunday morning, the 6th there was a good opening to southern Europe
on 10M. I had a SSB run from 1515-1550 UTC working Croatia,
Switzerland, Spain, and many French and Italian stations. Many
signals were over S9. 12M in the past few days has been open to at
least southern EU daily.

"Last Friday, February 4, 10M was wide open to New Caledonia from
2130-2245 UTC. I easily logged FK8IK on both CW and SSB, and FK4QX
on SSB. This followed loud signals from the western USA."

Images of recent sunspot regions:

http://www.hkastroforum.net/viewtopic.php?f=28&p=321591

Study offers explanation for unusual motions in solar flares, oddly
referred to as "Solar Flames":

https://bit.ly/3uHX5SI

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for February 3 through 9, 2022 were 84, 87, 91, 83,
78, 86, and 78, with a mean of 83.9. 10.7 cm flux was 126.5, 129.6,
125.9, 123.6, 127.2, 123.1, and 125.9, with a mean of 126. Estimated
planetary A indices were 27, 32, 12, 15, 7, 5, and 3, with a mean of
14.4. Middle latitude A index was 18, 18, 10, 12, 4, 3, and 2, with
a mean of 9.6.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (954:895/7)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP007
ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP07
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 7 ARLP007
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA February 18, 2022
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP007
ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA

Although solar activity was generally lower this week, new sunspots
appeared. A sunspot group emerged on February 10, two more on
February 11, two more on February 14 and three more on February 16,
when the daily sunspot number rose to 111, the highest value for
this reporting week and well above the weekly average, which was
75.3. The average for the previous week was 83.9. On February 17
another new sunspot region emerged, but the daily sunspot number
declined from 111 to 103.

The 111 sunspot number was the highest since the end of 2021, when
sunspot numbers went as high as 147 following a few days of no
sunspots at all.

On Thursday night (February 17) the Daily Sun image on
Spaceweather.com showed seven sunspot groups, the whole Earth facing
side of the Sun peppered with spots.

Average daily solar flux declined from 126 to 110.1. Average daily
planetary A index went from 14.4 to 13, and average daily middle
latitude A index declined just 1.3 points to 8.3.

Why do we care about sunspot numbers? Because high values correlate
with greater density in the ionosphere, which gives us better
propagation at higher frequencies. 64 years ago, sunspot numbers
were so high that hams saw worldwide around the clock propagation on
the 10 meter band. Sunspot numbers were never so high before or
since. That was the peak of Solar Cycle 19. Newly licensed hams
thought it would always be like that. It never was.

Predicted solar flux over the next month was downgraded from
February 16-17 forecasts, and is 95 on February 18-19, 98 on
February 20, 102 on February 21-23, 105 on February 24, 108 on
February 25-27, 110 on February 28, 115 on March 1-2, 112 and 110 on
March 3-4, 108 on March 5-8, 105 on March 9-11, 103 on March 12-13,
100 on March 14, 98 on March 15-16, 102 on March 17-19, 104 on March
20-22, 108 on March 23-26 and 110 on March 27.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on February 18-19, then 18, 15 and
12 on February 20-22, then 10, 8 and 10 on February 23-25, 15 and 10
on February 24-25, 5 on February 26 to March 2, then 12, 15, 10 and
8 on March 3-6, 5 on March 7-10, then 15, 12 and 10 on March 11-13,
5 on March 14-18, then 8, 5, 12, 15, 18 and 10 on March 19-24, and 5
on March 25-29.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere, February 10, 2022, from OK1HH:

"Solar activity has reached a moderate level, including occurrence
of M-class flares. The activity on the far side of the Sun was
greater, as evidenced by CME observations beyond the eastern limb of
the solar disk, which do not affect the Earth's ionosphere.

"We observed exceptionally bad conditions of ionospheric propagation
in the bands of 80 meters and especially 160 meters on the night of
February 14-15, UTC. The cause was a several-day decrease in solar
radiation (X-ray level), accompanied by a decrease in the speed of
the solar wind, as a source of ionization by particles. The
improvement started in the morning of February 15, beginning from
the eastern direction when the ionosphere was irradiated by the Sun
again.

"Solar activity is expected to rise only slowly in the coming days,
reaching a flat quasi-peak maximum in early March. The activity of
the Earth's magnetic field should increase irregularly and only
slightly again on 20-21 and 24-25 February (according to other
sources on February 22-24), causing only the usual fluctuations in
the level of propagation conditions."

NN4X reported on February 16:

"I was a little late to the party on 10m, having started checking
propagation on 12m first.

"Conditions were excellent this morning, easily the best 10m Long
Path opening I've ever seen.

"I was fortunate to have FT8 QSOs with these stations this morning:

"BF7IEJ (1304 UTC)
YC9AUB (1306 UTC)
YC1THS (1319 UTC)
YC7UDD (1346 UTC)
VK3EW (1419 UTC)
JK1OZS (1344 UTC)
VR2CH (1307 UTC)
VR2XYL (1305 UTC)
VR2VAZ (1339 UTC)

"I also worked VR2CH on 10m LP on Tuesday, 02/15/2022. Great fun!

"I wanted to pass this along because I found it so interesting.
While monitoring 12m FT8 around 1905 UTC this afternoon, with the
antenna pointed 90 degrees, looking for African stations, I noticed
YB0DJ decode.

"I proceeded to work him, and he was gone shortly thereafter. I've
never seen a long path opening so far away from sunrise to sunset.
Using PSKR, we can see at least some of the extent of that opening
(note that the daylight/nighttime shading is for the time I ran the
search).

"From K7RA, he sent an image of the map, which I have no way of
presenting here.

"YB0DJ 2/16/2022 1905 UTC 24.915 MHz"

N0JK reported on February 17:

"A sporadic-E opening occurred on February 13 UTC.

"I logged W4IMD (EM84) on 50.313 MHz at 0141 UTC. The only Es
station worked on 6 Meters. Then on 17 Meters worked KC5LT (EM86) at
0228 UTC on FT8 on Es. Sporadic-E openings are rare in the month of
February. 73, Jon, N0JK, EM28, Kansas."

Check out this video about a ViewProp, a promising new propagation
analysis tool: https://youtu.be/McUB2eY5atk .

There is also an email list for it: https://groups.io/g/viewprop .
Thanks to ARRL Contest Update for the information.

A reader named Neil J. shared this:

https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/aiahmi/

A new robotic system at Sunspot, New Mexico observatory:

https://bit.ly/33v3x4i

This weekend is the CW portion of the ARRL International DX Contest.
Details can be found here:

http://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for February 10 through 16, 2022 were 78, 86, 54,
53, 72, 73, and 111, with a mean of 75.3. 10.7 cm flux was 118,
113.1, 110.5, 105.4, 106.5, 114.3, and 102.9, with a mean of 110.1.
Estimated planetary A indices were 21, 20, 13, 15, 8, 5, and 9, with
a mean of 13. Middle latitude A index was 12, 12, 10, 9, 6, 3, and
6, with a mean of 8.3.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (954:895/7)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP008
ARLP008 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP08
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 8 ARLP008
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA February 28, 2022
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP008
ARLP008 Propagation de K7RA

New sunspot groups appeared on February 17, 19, 20 and 21, but solar
activity declined, even though sunspots were seen covering the sun
every day.

Average daily sunspot number declined 21 points from 75.3 last week
to 54.3 in the current reporting week, February 17-23. Average daily
solar flux was down nearly 15 points from 110.1 to 95.4. On
Thursday, February 24 the decline in sunspot numbers continued to
23, 31.3 points below the average in the previous seven days.

Average daily planetary A index went from 13 to 9.6, and average
daily middle latitude A index was off by one point to 7.3.

Predicted solar flux is 95 on February 25, 100 on February 26-27,
105 on February 28 through March 2, 110 on March 3-4, 108 on March
5-8, 105 on March 9-11, 103 on March 12-13, 100 on March 14, 98 on
March 15-16, 102 on March 17-19, 104 on March 20-22, 108 on March
23-26, 110 on March 27, 115 on March 28-29, then 112 and 110 on
March 30-31, then 108 on April 1-4.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 and 10 on February 25-26, 8 on
February 27 through March 3, 10 on March 4-5, 8 on March 6, 5 on
March 7-10, then 15, 12 and 10 on March 11-13, 5 on March 14-18,
then 8, 5, 12, 18, 15 and 10 on March 19-24, 5 on March 25-29, then
12, 15, 10 and 8 on March 30 through April 2, and 5 on April 3-6.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere, February 24, 2022 from OK1HH.

"Solar activity gradually declined to very low levels with a slight
chance of Class C flares. The solar wind speed and particle density
fluctuate irregularly. The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor
storm levels. Total solar radiation, accompanied by an irregular
occurrence of enhanced geomagnetic activity caused a subsequent
gradual decrease to overall below-average shortwave propagation
conditions. A slight improvement can be expected in connection with
seasonal changes with the approaching Spring Equinox."

I regularly check propagation on 10-meters using FT8, low power, and
a modest full wave end fed wire antenna that is mostly indoors on
the second floor of my home.

Sometimes I will see my coverage on pskreporter.info/pskmap.html
concentrated in an area 2000-2300 miles away in Georgia and South
Carolina, which is what I saw on February 24 around 1830 UTC. 24
hours earlier I saw only two reception reports, none in the USA,
with one station down in central Mexico and the other way down in
Southern Argentina around 53 degrees south latitude. Very odd, but
this being 10-meters, soon the coverage changed and I saw coverage
across the East Coast.

Using this same modest antenna on 40 meters, where it is one quarter
wave long, at 0330 UTC on February 25 I see coverage all over the
United States, but only one station reporting my signal in Europe,
at -17 dB from IZ1CRR in JN35td.

On IZ1CRR's QRZ.com page he says he is a shortwave listener, and not
to call him on FT8 as he is listening only.

Even if you are not an FT8 operator, you could use pskreporter.info
to discover propagation paths on different bands from your local
area by searching for signals received from your grid square over
the previous 15 minutes. This assumes there are other stations in
your grid square active at the time.

In grid square CN87 in my area, there seem to be active local
stations on at all times on every band. You should probably look for
stronger signals with positive signal levels if you plan to use CW
or SSB.

Solar eruption in the news:

https://abc7.com/solar-eruption-sun-image-sunspot/11589207/

Here is an article about instability of sunspots:

https://bit.ly/3LXYEC4

Here is a blog post about recent solar events:

https://bit.ly/3t9ERHa

Details on the new Maui solar telescope:

https://bit.ly/3ImQxNb

Here is the February 21 update from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/wJaV5RnIEFE

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for February 17 through 23, 2022 were 103, 53, 51,
49, 48, 38, and 38, with a mean of 54.3. 10.7 cm flux was 96.7,
93.3, 95.7, 93.3, 97.8, 95.3, and 95.5, with a mean of 95.4.
Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 6, 9, 13, 12, 16, and 6, with
a mean of 9.6. Middle latitude A index was 4, 5, 6, 8, 11, 13, and
4, with a mean of 7.3.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (954:895/7)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP009
ARLP009 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP09
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 9 ARLP009
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA March 4, 2022
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP009
ARLP009 Propagation de K7RA

Solar activity was weaker this reporting week (February 24 through
March 2) with average daily sunspot numbers weakening from 54.3 to
44, but average daily solar flux rising slightly from 95.4 to 98.5.

Geomagnetic numbers were moderate. Average daily planetary A index
declined from 9.6 to 7.3, and middle latitude index from 7.3 to 5.6.

Predicted solar flux is 110 on March 4, 108 on March 5-7, then 106,
104 and 100 on March 8-10, 99 on March 11-13, 98 on March 14, 95 on
March 15-16, then 96, 97, 98 and 99 on March 17-20, 100 on March
21-22, then 101 and 100 on March 23-24, 102 on March 25-26, then 99
and 102 on March 27-28, 105 on March 29-31, 102 on April 1-2, 101 on
April 3-4, then 100 on April 5-6, and 99 on April 7-9.

Predicted planetary A index is 12 on March 4-6, 10 on March 7, 5 on
March 8-10, then 10, 12, 8, 5 and 8 on March 11-15, 5 on March
16-17, 10 on March 18, 15 on March 19-21, 7 on March 22-24, then 5
and 10 on March 25-26, 12 on March 27-28, 8 on March 29-30, 12 on
March 31, 15 on April 1-2, then 5 on April 3-6, then 18, 15 and 8 on
April 7-9.

Here is the weekly commentary from OK1HH:

"The decline in solar activity in the second half of February might
have surprised us if it were not for the information about the
increased eruptive activity on the far side of the Sun. The farside
sunspots images were taken mainly by the STEREO-A spacecraft,
starting with the huge farside explosion, when the spacecraft
recorded a spectacular coronal mass ejection (CME) appearing in the
late hours of 15 February.

"One day later Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) gave us a
better view of the explosion on the far side. SOHO coronagraphs have
recorded the most dramatic CME in recent years. The activity
observed beyond the eastern edge of the solar disk looked promising
several times, but after the spot groups actually came out, we
experienced only occasional eruptions of class C.

"The Earth's magnetic field activity fluctuated irregularly and
attempts to predict further developments failed. Conditions for
shortwave propagation began to improve in early March, but this was
mainly due to seasonal changes."

Here is a link to see a new telescope:

https://bit.ly/3ICJ5O6

Check out the Solar Orbiter from European Space Agency:

https://www.esa.int/Science_Exploration/Space_Science/Solar_Orbiter

Jeff, WA2BOT, in Connecticut wrote on March 2:

"Wow!

"10 Meters Long Path from East Coast USA to the Far East was amazing
today!

"I noticed 10 meters was open to Europe at 1143Z when I first
checked band conditions.

"Operating on FT8 from Grid FN32, between 1310 GMT to 1348 GMT using
FT8. During the opening I worked: BD7MXA, VR2XYL, VR2ZXP, VR2UBC,
VR2XRW, VR2CH, JA7QVI, and 12 other stations in Japan.

"Solar Cycle 25 is just getting started and 10 meters is again,
WOW!"

See stunning loops of plasma:

https://bit.ly/35OpX0V

Here is information about the termination event:

https://bit.ly/3KgQrqU

This is from a 2020 paper on "Overlapping Magnetic Activity Cycles
and the Sunspot Number," and now the paper's authors have announced
the termination event between Solar Cycles 24 and 25 has arrived:

https://bit.ly/35KqfpJ

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for February 24 through March 2, 2022 were 23, 22,
22, 48, 65, 62, and 66, with a mean of 44. 10.7 cm flux was 92.3,
96.2, 96.5, 96.9, 99, 99.3, and 109.5, with a mean of 98.5.
Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 8, 3, 13, 8, 8, and 4, with a
mean of 7.3. Middle latitude A index was 6, 7, 1, 11, 5, 6, and 3,
with a mean of 5.6.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (954:895/7)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP010
ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP10
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 10 ARLP010
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA March 11, 2022
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP010
ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA

On March 11 at 0431 UTC Australia's Space Forecast Centre issued
this warning:

"A slow coronal mass ejection has been observed late on 10 march,
and event modeling suggests arrival at the Earth late on 13 March.
Increased geomagnetic activity is expected for 14 March 2022."

We observed an active Sun this week. Geomagnetic indicators peaked
on Saturday, March 5 when Alaska's high latitude college A index
reached 42.

Again this week, sunspots covered the Sun every day. Average daily
sunspot numbers rose from 44 to 87.4, and average daily solar flux
went from 98.5 to 115.5. Geomagnetic indicators were also higher.
Average daily planetary A index increased from 7.3 to 11.4.

Predicted solar flux is 120 on March 11-12, 115 on March 13, 110 on
March 14-16, 105 on March 17, 100 on March 18-21, then 101 and 103
on March 22-23, 104 on March 24-27, then 110, 115 and 116 on March
28-30, 118 on March 31 through April 1, 120 on April 2, 116 on April
3-4, then 115 and 112 on April 5-6, 110 on April 7-9, then 108, 102,
98 and 99 on April 10-13 then 100 on April 14-17.

Predicted planetary A index is 12 on March 11, 5 on March 12-13,
then 10, 18, 15, 5 and 8 on March 14-18, then 12 on March 19-20, 15
on March 21, 7 on March 22-24, then 5, 10 and 8 on March 25-27, 5 on
March 28-29, then 10, 12, 25, 20 and 10 on March 30 through April 3,
5 on April 4-6, then 15, 20 and 12 on April 7-9, and 5 on April
10-13, then 8 on April 14, and 10 on April 15-16.

OK1HH wrote, "The power density of solar radio noise at a wavelength
of 10.7 cm, more briefly referred to as 'solar flux,' remains above
110 for a week. Because we see two more active areas beyond the
eastern limb of the solar disk (thanks to the STEREO Ahead
satellite), solar flux should stay that way for another week.

"The concurrence of increased solar activity with seasonal changes
during the approaching equinox results in improved conditions for
short-wave ionospheric propagation.

"Occasional irregular occurrences of a slight increase in
geomagnetic activity (as was the case on March 5-6) cause only a
slight deterioration. Possible recurrent disturbance is expected
until the beginning of April, probably already in its first days."

Russ Hunt, WQ3X wrote on March 4, "Yesterday I heard WA2BOT on 10m
FT8 working DX on the long path and aimed my beam due south. In just
over a half hour's time I worked 33 JAs, 2 DUs and VR2XYL. I had a
pileup 6 deep at times using 250w and 5 element Yagi at 50'. It was
probably the most exciting time I've had in the last 20 yrs. Today I
worked two more VR2s and 3 JAs also LP just after sunrise. Love them
'spots.'"

A few hours later he wrote, "During the middle of the day we get
some VK/ZLs starting around 3 PM local time. But try sunrise and
sunset and you will find a lot of DX.

"I hear the 6s and 7s working a lot of Asia in the evening. Here we
get EU, Africa, and the middle east in the mornings. I've done WAC
about 4 or 5 times a week, but now running out of new stations to
work."

Robert Strickland, KE2WY asked about a good source for the latest
daily sunspot numbers, and I sent him to this site:

https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/daily-solar-indices.txt

On March 10, N9II sent some observations of last week's DX contest,
only a small portion presented here.

"I operated single band 15M in the ARRL DX contest but made a few
QSOs on other bands. 20M was open well to Africa and south in the
0100 UTC hour Saturday, some very loud Caribbean signals. 10M was
open for many hours to the south some booming signals even from LP
stations in Puerto Rico and Turks and Caicos and many HP stations
like J68HZ, St Lucia, PJ4G on Bonaire, and PJ2T, Curacao.

"On 15M, a disturbance and slightly low solar flux made for some
challenging conditions to Asia and northern Europe.

"Saturday evening the disturbance rendered Japan nearly completely
closed, with Sunday evening conditions fair with most signals less
than S9.

"I made 600 15M QSOs working 86 countries.

"On 10M CW starting 1414 UTC on March 8 I worked 3 new ones in a
row: 7Q6M, Malawi, 5X1NA, Uganda, and JY5HX, Jordan.

"Then on 10 SSB, Dov, 4Z4DX, Israel, on 10 CW V26K, Antigua, and
OA1F in Peru.

"Later on 17 CW V4/G0TLE, St. Kitts, then topping off with E51BQ on
South Cook Islands on 10 SSB at 2325 UTC.

"On 12m CW on the 9th at 1550 UTC I worked V26K. I called CQ on 10
SSB at 1557 UTC and was called by Spain, then Francisco, TT8FC in
Chad, ZS1PPY, South Africa, then 3B8HE in Mauritius. Today, the 10th
featured excellent high band propagation with today's solar flux
climbing to 127. I heard Indonesia peaking S8 on 15M SSB at 1340
UTC, then worked 4L1AN in Georgia at 1344 UTC (new), VU2DSI, India,
at 1353 UTC.

"Turning to 10M SSB, I found Selki, S01WS, Southern Sahara, and
CU1EZ, Azores for #100 on 10 SSB. Then at 1551 UTC for the next hour
10M blew wide open to Europe starting with Bulgaria, Italy, and
Hungary.

"Several stations with simple end fed wires were S9 and the loudest
signals were S9+20 dB or a bit stronger. This was one of the best
openings all Winter, but others were more widespread farther north."

Here is an email list for operators of, or anyone interested in, HF
beacons:

https://www.freelists.org/webpage/hfbeacons

The Vernal Equinox is in a little over a week, 1533 UTC on Sunday,
March 20, when Earth will be bathed in an equal amount of solar
radiation over both southern and northern hemispheres, good for HF
propagation. It is the first day of Spring in the northern
hemisphere and Fall in the southern.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for March 3 through 9, 2022 were 92, 77, 95, 82, 84,
93, and 89, with a mean of 87.4. 10.7 cm flux was 110.9, 113.1,
120.1, 115.7, 118.3, 115.3, and 114.8, with a mean of 115.5.
Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 10, 27, 18, 9, 6, and 5, with
a mean of 11.4. Middle latitude A index was 3, 7, 19, 13, 7, 5, and
4, with a mean of 8.3.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (954:895/7)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP014
ARLP014 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP14
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 14 ARLP014
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA April 8, 2022
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP014
ARLP014 Propagation de K7RA

Lots of solar activity livened up HF conditions over the past
reporting week, March 31 to April 6. Average daily sunspot number
rose from 90.1 to 94.6, and daily solar flux from 132.7 to 135.3.

It looks like solar flux may peak this month at 140 on April 24-28.

Since March 18 we were unable to get daily solar flux from the
observatory in Penticton, British Columbia, so for a couple of weeks
we relied on secondary sources which were all in whole numbers,
instead of resolving to 0.1. Multiple inquiries to the observatory
led nowhere, but now the data is back online at,
https://bit.ly/3LDlgqC .

I had to fudge the flux value for March 31, because the value of
239.5 was obviously an error, probably due to a CME overwhelming the
10.7 cm receiver at the observatory, so I averaged the morning and
afternoon readings to 149.3. The official daily flux value is always
from the 2000 UTC local noon reading.

Geomagnetic conditions were quite active on March 31 through April
2. Average daily planetary A index for the week increased from 10 to
14.4, and middle latitude A index from 8.1 to 10.9.

Spaceweather.com reported 146 solar flares over the month of March
and predicts even more for April. They also report that Solar Cycle
25 is progressing faster and stronger than earlier predictions.

A new sunspot group appeared on March 31, two more on April 1,
another on April 2 and one more on April 3, and one more on April 5.

Predicted solar flux is 108 on April 8-9, 105 on April 10-11, 100 on
April 12-14, then 110, 115 and 120 on April 15-17, 125 on April
18-19, 130 on April 20-23, 140 on April 24-28, 135 on April 29-30,
130 on May 1, 120 on May 2-3, 125 on May 4-5, 120 on May 6, 115 on
May 7-8, 110 on May 8-9, 115 on May 11, and 120 on May 12-14.

Predicted planetary A index is 12, 15, 10 and 8 on April 8-11, 5 on
April 12-19, 10 on April 20-21, then 5, 15, 10 and 8 on April 22-25,
5 on April 26-28, then 18, 12, 10 and 8 on April 29 through May 2, 5
on May 3-7, then 12 and 10 on May 8-9, and 5 on May 10-16.

Solar wind in the news:

https://bit.ly/3rdXycD

F.K. Janda, OK1HH reports:

"Total solar activity has been declining. Recent CMEs generated by
solar flares have usually not been headed to Earth. In particular,
on April 6, the solar wind was expected to intensify from a CME
generated by a filament eruption on April 3rd, but only a small
portion of the solar plasma cloud reached Earth.

"The Earth's magnetic field was unsettled to active until April 2
and partly on April 4 and 7. The increased geomagnetic activity on
the night of April 3 to 4 worsened diurnal short wave propagation
conditions on April 4. Thereafter, despite the continuing decline in
solar activity, shortwave propagation conditions improved.

"In further development, we first expect a decline in solar
activity. Its growth in the second half of the month will again
cause an improvement of shortwave propagation. However, the
development will be slightly irregular."

Another great video forecast from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, the
Space Weather Woman:

https://youtu.be/SxU6Lv30DuQ

WB8VLC reports from Oregon:

"Another great week on 10 meters but only SSB/CW and not much FM
activity, but the activity was very strong with signals to South
Africa, Taiwan, Philippines, Norfolk Island, and Australia.

"Interesting that I have not heard any European stations during any
morning or afternoon openings to the east, just South Africa."

A small portion of his log:

"April 3 it was ZS in the morning and VK at night then China and
Philippines:

"2344 UTC N7ET/DU7 28.014 CW 599 Philippines
2340 UTC BV1EL 28.010 CW 599 Taiwan
2311 UTC VK3NX 28.015 CW 599 Australia
1900 UTC ZS3Y 28.373 SSB 55 South Africa"

K5JRN reports on 6 meters from Austin, Texas:

"Interesting conditions observed here on April 4 and 6. On 6 meters
on 4/4/22, I worked HK3X (FJ24) in Columbia and HC1MD/2 (EI97) in
Ecuador while running 30 watts to an indoor dipole wrapped around a
couple of bamboo tomato stakes glued end to end. [I will assume FT8
was the mode. - K7RA]

"That same combo helped me snag HC2DR (FI07) in Ecuador today (4/6).
My signals were not strong, ranging from -13 to -24 in Colombia and
Ecuador. I've also been heard in Argentina and have copied several
Argentinian hams, including LU9AEA (GF05), but have not yet worked
an LU on 6.

"Today, I've also been heard in Uruguay by CX7CO (GF15) but have not
heard any CX stations yet. Indeed, I'm not receiving anyone else on
6 meters except a few locals and those South American stations. The
north-south paths seem like narrow pipelines."

Speaking of "narrow pipelines," I often see this on 10 and 12 meters
using FT8. Monitoring pskreporter.info, on April 7 at 1630 UTC on 12
meters my signal was only reported by stations on the East Coast
over a narrow band, all from 2296-2359 miles from me, at first only
by many stations in Virginia and North Carolina, but not South
Carolina.

Later at 1645 UTC coverage expanded to Florida and Georgia, but
still within that narrow mileage limit. Later by 1720 UTC reports
had spread to New York, Georgia and Florida, and the mileage range
expanded slightly to 2119-2489 miles. But there was one major
exception, HK3A in Bogota, Colombia at 4091 miles.

The night before (local time) at 0220 UTC on 17 meters I was copied
only into a specific area about 2300 miles away in Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Maryland, then suddenly at 0232 UTC the coverage
expanded to California, Oregon, Texas, Alabama, and Florida. All of
this with low power and a crude end-fed indoor antenna, fed with an
UnUn and autotuner.

Thanks to KA7F for the following:

https://bit.ly/3rbkUj8

Information on Solar Cycle 25 increasing:

https://bit.ly/3x9cv3p

And more from the Southgate Amateur Radio Club:

https://bit.ly/38BbEOW

More solar phenomena:

https://bit.ly/3ra65NV

And more:

https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-activity-week-of-march-28-to-april-3/

N0JK reports:

"On Saturday April 2, 2022 N0LL (EM09) copied LU5VV, CE2SV, LU1WFU
and PV8DX on 50.313 MHz FT8 TEP. I copied CE2SV on TEP and K0SIX
(EN35) calling PY5CC on 50.313 MHz Es at 2109 UTC."

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for March 31 through April 6, 2022 were 84, 109,
118, 129, 86, 75, and 61, with a mean of 94.6. 10.7 cm flux was
149,3, 146.6, 143.3, 140.2, 128, 122.4, and 117, with a mean of
135.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 27, 17, 22, 10, 11, 6, and
8, with a mean of 14.4. Middle latitude A index was 18, 12, 19, 7,
8, 6, and 6, with a mean of 10.9.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (954:895/7)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP015
ARLP015 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP15
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 15 ARLP015
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA April 15, 2022
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP015
ARLP015 Propagation de K7RA

At 2335 UTC on April 14, the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued
this Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning:

"INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH
SPEED WIND STREAM FROM 16 to 17 APRIL 2022."

Sunspot numbers and solar flux declined this reporting week (April
7 to 13) although solar activity wasn't really down. Instead, we saw
solar flares and CMEs every day, causing disruptions to HF radio
communication.

There was a new sunspot appearance on April 7, and another on each
day from April 11 to 14. Yet average daily sunspot numbers declined
from 94.6 to 34.4, and average daily solar flux from 135.3 to 103.1.

Average daily planetary A index increased from 14.4 to 15.9, and
average middle latitude A index (measured at a single magnetometer
in Virginia) went from 10.9 last week to 12.6 this week.

The latest solar flux prediction from the USAF Space Weather
Squadron, via NOAA, shows modest activity for the next month with
flux values of 105 and 110 on April 15 and 16, 115 on April 17 to
20, 118 on April 21, 110 on April 22 and 23, 115 on April 24, 118 on
April 25 to 28, 116 on April 29 through May 6, 112 and 98 on May 7
and 8, 95 on May 9 to 11, 98 and 102 on May 12 and 13, 106 on May 14
to 18, and 110 on May 19 and 20.

Predicted planetary A index is 22, 15, 10, 12 and 10 on April 15 to
19, 5 on April 20 to 22, then 15, 10 and 8 on April 23 to 25, 5 on
April 26 to 28, then 18, 12 and 8 on April 29 through May 1, 5 on
May 2 to 5, then 8, 15 and 12 on May 6 to 8, then 5 on May 9 to 11,
then 12 and 8 on May 12 and 13, 5 on May 14 to 16, then 10 on May 17
and 18, then 5, 15, 10 and 8 on May 19 to 22.

I've noticed odd 10 meter propagation lately, possibly affected by
the heightened geomagnetic activity. On April 14 in the local
Seattle morning around 1530 UTC using FT8 and pskreporter.info it
seemed that my low power signal was only being heard along a narrow
band across the Gulf Coast, from Texas to South Caroline. Later I
was only being heard in Florida.

Then all reports disappeared, then suddenly reports extended to two
stations in Columbia and Chile, and by 2000 UTC I was heard by W5SRO
in Oklahoma, KX4WB in Tennessee, N4HER in North Carolina, and KB2AHZ
in Virginia, plus everything in between, and then as far south as
KN5X in Texas across to KD7NFR in Georgia, plus most of Central
Florida.

By 2300 to 0100 UTC, other than local stations and W7MTL, 250 miles
away in Oregon, I was only being heard in Mexico, by five stations
1700 to 2300 miles away.

On the same afternoon, Jon Jones, N0JK reported on six meters, "Due
to a CME impact, the geomagnetic field went to storm levels the
afternoon of April 14.

6 Meters opened to Ecuador around 1930 UTC. Here in eastern Kansas,
HC2DR and HC2FG were loud on 50.313 MHz FT8. They were in about an
hour with big pileup. I received a psk flag from HC2FG at 2003 UTC.
AA0MZ EM29 worked HC2DR and HC2FG."

Earlier Jon reported:

"I copied on 50.313 MHz FT8 April 9:

CE0YHF/CE3
CE3SOC
CE2SV

CE3SOC peaked to '-9 dB.'

No contacts."

On April 14, Dick, K7BTW reported to the Western Washington DX Club
list:

"A bit of an opening to SA on 6 FT8 this afternoon. I worked CE2SV
(VE7SV) Dale Green down there in Chile.

I have copied several stations from down in Chile the past few days
about 2000 to 2130z."

Jay, K7TTZ forwarded this piece from Newsweek on solar cycle
progress:

https://bit.ly/3rt7u1X

OK1HH says:

"Solar activity has been declining over the last week. We now
observe only two active areas in the northeast quadrant of the solar
disk. However, we experienced two coronal mass ejections (CME). The
one first originated from the filament eruption on April 11, while
the arrival of coronal mass to the surroundings of the Earth with a
significant increase in geomagnetic activity is expected during
April 14. The second CME on April 13 took place on the far side of
the Sun and is heading for the planet Mercury.

The STEREO A probe observes three other active areas behind the
eastern edge of the solar disk. Solar activity is starting to rise.
It can be assumed that it will be increased throughout the second
half of April. A more significant decline is not expected at the
beginning of May either."

Solar cycle progress and aurora:

https://bit.ly/37TGSAw

Flares!

https://www.space.com/solar-storm-northern-lights-april-2022

Interesting info on helioseismology

http://jsoc.stanford.edu/data/timed/

Another wonderful video from WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/QZHnWE_19K0

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for April 7 through 13, 2022 were 52, 55, 37, 13,
24, 23, and 37, with a mean of 34.4. 10.7 cm flux was 111.1, 108.9,
107.1, 101.1, 98.7, 96.2, and 98.7, with a mean of 103.1. Estimated
planetary A indices were 15, 9, 19, 34, 13, 12, and 9, with a mean
of 15.9. Middle latitude A index was 12, 9, 17, 18, 13, 10, and 9 ,
with a mean of 12.6.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (954:895/7)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP016
ARLP016 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP16
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 16 ARLP016
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA April 22, 2022
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP016
ARLP016 Propagation de K7RA

Solar flares emerged daily over the last reporting week (April
14-20). On April 20 Spaceweather.com reported "Solar Activity is
Intensifying," and that over the past 24 hours there were 19 solar
flares, including six M-class events, and a powerful X2.2 class
flare.

Daily sunspot numbers averaged 64.4, 30 points higher than last
week, and average daily solar flux also rose 30 points from 103.1 to
133.9.

Yesterday, April 21, the huge array of active Earth facing sunspots
pushed the daily sunspot number clear up to 119, high above the
average for the week of 64.4.

Even with all the flares and CMEs, geomagnetic indicators were
lower, with the average planetary A index going from 16.9 to 14.6,
and middle latitude numbers from 12.6 to 10.9.

Predicted solar flux looked moderate, but the outlook improved
between April 20 and the following day, with flux values at 160 on
April 22-29, 125 on April 30, 130 on May 1-4, 125 on May 5, 130 on
May 6-7, 128 on May 8, 130 on May 9-10, 135 on May 11-12, 140 on May
13-14, 135 on May 15, 130 on May 16-18, 135 on May 19, 130 on May
20-21, 135 on May 22, 132 on May 23-25, 125 on May 26-27, and 130 on
May 28-31.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 and 12 on April 22-23, 12 on April
23, 8 on April 24-25, 5 on April 26-28, then 18, 12 and 8 on April
29 through May 1, 5 on May 2-5, then 8, 15, 12 and 8 on May 6-9, 5
on May 10-12, then 8, 10 and 12 on May 13-15, 10 on May 16-17, 8 on
May 18-19, then 12 and 8 on May 20-21, 5 on May 22-25, then 18, 12
and 8 on May 26-28.

This report from OK1HH:

"A week ago, we knew solar activity would rise, but the reality
exceeded expectations. As predicted, a CME hit Earth's magnetic
field on April 14th. Its impact sparked a moderately strong G2-class geomagnetic storm, which peaked around 1800 UTC. Apparently due to
the further increasing solar radiation, the disturbance was mainly
accompanied by an improvement in the ionospheric propagation of
decameter waves (10 meters!), which also applied to the following
development.

"Activity prevailed in growing hotspots in the northeast quadrant of
the solar disk. In the following days, the activity of the
southwestern areas increased, including the X2.2-class flare on
April 20th at 0357 UTC, when it came from a far side sunspot. And
finally, on April 21st at 0157 UTC a strong M9.6-class solar flare
was detected. The source was the sunspot complex AR2993-94, which is
almost directly facing Earth, so I expect the intensified solar wind
in the coming days to affect the Earth's magnetosphere and
ionosphere."

Solar flares in the news:

https://www.space.com/sun-unleashes-major-easter-solar-flare

Here is an impressive image:

https://skyandtelescope.org/online-gallery/sun-erupting/

Here are more and more solar flares:

https://www.space.com/solar-x-class-flare-april-2022

https://www.space.com/sdo-image-april-20-moderate-flare

Funny thing is, even with all this activity, I am not seeing much of
an effect on geomagnetic indicators:

https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/daily-geomagnetic-indices.txt

More solar news can be found here:

https://bit.ly/3jZtEVF

https://interestingengineering.com/sun-flare-five-years

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for April 14 through 20, 2022 were 37, 35, 78, 74,
79, 68, and 80, with a mean of 64.4. 10.7 cm flux was 103.4, 110.3,
122.4, 134.9, 140.5, 160.1, and 165.5, with a mean of 133.9.
Estimated planetary A indices were 38, 21, 8, 11, 8, 7, and 9, with
a mean of 14.6. Middle latitude A index was 22, 14, 7, 9, 7, 8, and
9, with a mean of 10.9.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (954:895/7)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP017
ARLP017 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP17
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 17 ARLP017
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA April 29, 2022
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP017
ARLP017 Propagation de K7RA

At 0206 UTC on April 28 the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued
a Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning: "The Earth is currently under the
influence of moderately elevated solar wind speed associated with a
southern coronal hole. On late UT day April 29, solar wind
conditions are expected to enhance further due to possible arrival
of the 27 April CMEs. G0-G1 conditions are likely for next three
days with a chance of G2 on April 29 due to both coronal hole
effects and impending impact of the CMEs. Aurora may be visible from
Tasmania, southern coastline Victoria and southwest Western
Australia."

On Wednesday and Thursday, I am seeing sunspot groups threaded
across the Sun from southeast to northwest. Daily sunspot number
peaked at 126 on Tuesday, and average daily sunspot number for the
week was 109.3, up from 64.4 last week. Daily solar flux peaked at
164.4 on Thursday, April 21 and the average for the week was 156, up
from 133.9 in the previous week.

Predicted solar flux is 125, 115 and 110 on April 29 through May 1,
105 on May 2-4, 102 on May 5-6, then 130 and 128 on May 7-8, 130 on
May 9-10, 135 on May 11-12, 140 on May 13-15, 160 on May 16-21, 135
on May 22, 132 on May 23-25, 125 on May 26-27, 130 on May 28-31, 125
on June 1, and 130 on June 2-3.

Predicted planetary A index is 18, 10 and 8 on April 29 through May
1, 5 on May 2-5, then 8, 15, 12 and 8 on May 6-9, 5 on May 10-12,
then 8, 10, 8 and 8 on May 13-16, 5 on May 17-19, then 10 and 8 on
May 20-21, 5 on May 22-25, then 18, 12 and 8 on May 26-28, then 5 on
May 29 through June 1, and 8, 15, 12 and 8 on June 2-5.

OK1HH says:

"Last week we witnessed higher solar activity. Large active areas
passed through the central meridian and produced medium-sized
eruptions (class M) and occasionally large eruptions (class X).
While at the end of the period these areas in the northwest were
sinking, other and slightly smaller areas in the southeast of the
disk emerged.

"There have been two increases in geomagnetic activity - one was
expected on the night of April 20-21, second one, rather unexpected,
by afternoon of April 27. The gradual increase in solar radiation
has significantly improved the propagation conditions of decameter
waves. Its improvement was supported by the positive storm phase
during the afternoon of April 27, when the critical frequencies of
the F2 ionospheric layer in mid-latitudes exceeded 10 MHz and MUF on transatlantic routes rose above 30 MHz. The negative storm phase
followed on April 28."

Decameter waves is another term for HF radio, at 3-30 MHz.

Watching sunspots on the sidewalk in New York City:

https://evgrieve.com/2022/04/seeing-sun-spots-today.html

A story on how to watch sunspots (safely, of course) without a
telescope:

https://bit.ly/39qJnuQ

Bill, KD9KCK wrote:

"On Wednesday, April 27 around 2100 UTC 10m was having some
propagation I have never dreamed of. I was tuning around looking for
a spot to call CQ for Parks On The Air and came across EA2K and
another station in Spain talking to ZL1ACE in New Zealand. And I was
able to hear both sides here near Chicago with just a short 36 inch
10m hamstick on the roof of my car with my IC-718. I didn't try to
contact the EA stations once they called QRZ though because they
were looking for just Pacific Stations at the time."

Here is a story of a "Tornado of Fire" on the surface of the Sun:

https://cnet.co/3Krc9Iy

K4ZOT wrote on Tuesday, April 26:

"Just wanted to drop you a quick line about today's unusual
propagation on 17M to Eastern Europe - Kosovo and Croatia, Central
Asia - Kyrgyzstan, Japan, far NT in Canada, SA - Brazil, North
Atlantic - Faroe Island, etc. - well really all over the world.
This was quite unusual in my book and unexpected. Worked two ATNO -
Republic of Kosovo and Faroe Island. I am running a TS-590SG into a
mini-beam at only 20 feet with an amp at 300 watts. All contacts
were on FT8. It was quite an experience!"

NN4X reported from Florida on April 26:

"I experienced some amazing conditions on 10m
over-the-north-pole-or-darn close propagation today, all using FT8.

"9N7AA 1220 UTC (20 degree heading; the others were within a few
degrees of 0)

"YC1KQV 1222 UTC
9M2TO 1613 UTC
9W2TED 1633 UTC
9V1ZV 1714 UTC
E20EHQ 1818 UTC

"There was at least one other 9W2 that I missed, and other YBs which
I did not call.

"Also, in there was BD9BI/0 (Zone 23). I'd worked him previously,
so did not pursue him.

"I am not sure I've ever seen such an extended period of this kind
of propagation on 10m."

Here is some information on flares and radio blackouts:

https://bit.ly/3EWuPij

I (K7RA) noticed plenty of odd propagation this week, possibly due
to flare activity. I use FT8 mainly as a tool for observing
propagation on various bands, and on Tuesday April 26 at 1652 UTC
K7HAM in Arizona answered my CQ on 17 meters. But we did not
complete the contact. Pskreporter.info showed broad coverage of my
signal, from Southern California to Florida at the south, and South
Dakota to Maine at the north. But at 1700 UTC coverage began to
fade.

By 1720 UTC my coverage on the map was all gone, with a couple of
odd exceptions.

WZ7I in Pennsylvania and AF7KR in Arizona were the only stations
reporting my signal. Then suddenly NH6V on Hawaii's Big Island
reported. That was it, but then I observed F1EYG and DL0PF on my
screen.

After 1721 UTC my coverage began coming back. I stopped calling
K7HAM at 1730 UTC, 38 minutes after he responded to my CQ, and by
1735 UTC my signal was being received again all over North America.

On Wednesday, April 27 at 1730 UTC checking for any FT8 signals on
10 meters from my grid square (CN87), they were only being received
in Florida! Nowhere else, anywhere, and the cluster of Florida
stations reporting was quite thick, stretching all over the state.
But nowhere else was reporting signals from my area.

More on radio blackouts:

https://bit.ly/38z8c7b

Don't know what they mean by "sunspot activity score of 80," the
average of daily sunspot numbers for the past four weeks is 68.2:

https://bit.ly/3km9AwX

Here is the latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/kYv8CsSot-U

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for April 21 through 27, 2022 were 119, 101, 118,
112, 94, 126, and 95, with a mean of 109.3. 10.7 cm flux was 164.4,
162.5, 159.8, 158.5, 156.6, 148.9, and 141.5, with a mean of 156.
Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 7, 13, 5, 5, 3, and 21, with
a mean of 9.1. Middle latitude A index was 9, 7, 12, 5, 4, 3, and
16, with a mean of 8.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (954:895/7)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP021
ARLP021 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP21
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 21 ARLP021
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA May 27, 2022
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP021
ARLP021 Propagation de K7RA

Although our Sun is currently peppered with spots, average daily
sunspot number slipped from 134.1 the previous week to 124.7 during
this reporting week, May 19 to 25.

Average daily solar flux was actually a tiny bit higher, rising
hardly at all from 157.3 to 158.8. Solar flux has been in a slow,
steady decline from a peak of 179.9 on May 18.

A new sunspot group emerged on May 19, two more on May 22, another
on May 24 and two more on May 25. But a look at the total sunspot
area, expressed in millionths of a full solar disc, shows it
declining steadily through the week, from 1500 on May 19 down to 870
on May 25.

AR3014 is the biggest sunspot group of the current solar cycle:

https://bit.ly/39UwBVA

There were plenty of solar flares this week, although no significant disturbances to note.

Here is a movie of a flare appearing on May 20:

https://bit.ly/3GlNtAX

Another flare on May 25 at 1824 UTC, emerging from an old dead
sunspot group:

https://bit.ly/3PIoRXd

The Thursday prediction from USAF shows average daily solar flux
dropping from 158.8 over the recent week to 114.5 for the following
reporting week, May 26 through June 1. Also, the Thursday projection
for solar flux in the next week was lower than the Wednesday
prediction.

Predicted solar flux is 120, 115 and 110 on May 27 to 29, 112 on May
30 to June 1, 115 on June 2, 120 on June 3 and 4, 115 on June 5 and
6, then 130, 140 and 150 on June 7 to 9, 155 on June 10 and 11, then
160 and 165 on June 12 and 13, 175 on June 14 and 15, 165 on June 16
to 19, then 163, 132, and 158 on June 20 to 22, 150, 142 and 138 on
June 23 to 25, then 135, 130, 125 and 120 on June 26 to 29, 120 on
June 30 through July 1, and 115 on July 2 and 3.

Predicted planetary A index is 15, 18, 15, 12 and 10 on May 27 to
31, 5 on June 1 to 9, then 8, 14, 12, 14 and 8 on June 10 to 14,
then 12, 14, 12, 14 and 8 on June 15 to 19, 5 on June 20 to 22, then
10, 10 and 8 on June 23 to 25, and 5 on June 26 through July 6.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - May 26, 2022 from OK1HH.

"The current accelerating growth of solar activity is leading to
predictions that the maximum of the current cycle 25 should be
comparable to cycle 19. Solar cycle 19 was the nineteenth solar
cycle since 1755, when extensive recording of sunspot activity
began. Solar cycle 19 lasted 10.5 years, beginning in April 1954 and
ending in October 1964. The maximum smoothed sunspot number observed
during the peak of cycle 19 was 285, in March 1958.

In the last 14 days, the solar flux has not fallen below 130. A
total of 13 M-class solar flares were registered.

The critical frequencies of the ionospheric layer F2 in the same
interval corresponded to the effective sunspot number 72 to 116,
while drops below 100 occurred exclusively after days with slightly
increased geomagnetic activity.

It's already summer in the ionosphere of the Earth's Northern
Hemisphere. This corresponds to lower values of the highest usable
frequencies with the daily occurrence of sporadic layer E. The
optimal frequencies for DX QSOs therefore fell below 20 MHz. With
the exception of routes leading above lower latitudes, where they
tend to be several MHz higher during the day.

In the coming weeks, the activity of the sporadic layer E in the
ionosphere of the northern hemisphere will intensify. Although solar
activity should increase again after June 10, the activity of the
sporadic layer E will have an even more significant effect on the
opening of the shortest shortwave bands."

Recent flare news:

https://bit.ly/3wQWxtc

NN4X wrote:

"There was some amazing propagation on Thursday, 5/26 on 12m to Asia
over the north pole. I was called, and worked, in succession:

EX8MLE 1618 UTC 9V1XX 1619 UTC DS4FWI 1620 UTC VU2CPL 1627 UTC

Sadly, 6m never opened, but the fun didn't stop with 12m in the
morning.

15m was spectacularly open around 0200 UTC on Thursday evening.

The band was literally open ALL OVER THE WORLD."

Steve included a pskreporter map showing spectacular worldwide FT8
coverage for his signal.

From Max White, M0VNG, concerning latitudinal asymmetry in sunspot
regions:

https://bit.ly/3MVCi4d

Posted to an email list devoted to propagation beacons on Thursday
night:

"Late evening. Only heard one beacon around 0345 UTC:

ZL3TEN, 28.2279 MHz, 579 Path: 7,827 miles

Unbelievable so late at night and signal so strong.

73, Lou WD5GLO-EM15AH Oklahoma"

On May 24 I sent this to propagation expert K9LA:

"Over and over recently I do an FT8 test using pskreporter on 10
meters and if no response there, I check 12 meters, usually around
1600 to 1800 UTC.

Every day shows my signals ONLY being received in Florida, the path
about 2500 miles. Often there will be an XE station or two, also at
2500 miles.

But that's it, nothing else. But later in the day there will be a
few stations elsewhere.

The bearing is 103 to 105 deg.

This is consistent, day after day. I am sure Florida has a large ham population, but cannot for the life of me figure this out.

On 10 meters a half hour ago AG0N in Nebraska reported, 999 miles
away and also a 106 degree bearing, but otherwise see a huge
concentration of Florida stations.

Any idea why this is happening, other than perhaps a large and
enthusiastic concentration of FT8 stations monitoring in Florida?"

Carl replied:

"Tad, your observations remind me of when I've operated on 10m
around solar minimum from the Cayman Islands. Most of the QSOs are
in the vicinity of MN - which is about 2500 miles (4000 km) from ZF.
The openings are very selective in location when there aren't enough
sunspots for shorter distances.

The 2500 mile distance (4000 km) is right at the maximum F2 region
hop length for 12m and 10m. That means the F2 region MUF is the
highest for paths of that length. Thus your FL and XE paths could
be one F2 region hop. Any shorter paths would need more ionization
to refract the higher elevation angles for those shorter distances.

As for New England, the midpoint of the path would be farther north,
which means a lower MUF.

The Nebraska path might be via sporadic E, as 2000 km is the maximum
hop length for the E region. Could the FL and XE paths be 2 hops via
sporadic E? Perhaps - it'd be nice to have some data, but there
aren't any ionosondes near those paths.

If I had to bet, I'd go with one F2 region hop for FL and XE, and
one Es hop for Nebraska."

On May 25th I replied:

"Attached is an image from pskreporter from this morning on 12
meters, with Florida represented by better conditions with coverage
up the east coast."

Carl responded:

"That PSKreporter image with the densest reports from along the East
Coast suggests that it was one F2 hop, and that the F2 region was
better on May 25 at 1942 UTC than the previous days. The day-to-day
variation of the F2 region certainly explains it well.

It would be interesting to collect data for the entire day - maybe
in 2-hour increments to see the patterns versus time. That may be a
way to distinguish between F2 and Es."

I received a link from IL4LZH for a page showing interesting
analysis of signals received at his station over the past few years:

"Here at https://ft8.chaos.cc

You can find some data plots that I have collected in recent years.

They are analyzed by ITU zone and hours of days. Horizontally 40 ITU
zone inside ITU zone hours from 00 to 23 vertically day of the month
green intensity linked to intensity of signal."

Carrington event, https://bit.ly/3LTeCfm

Dr. Tamitha Skov on May 22, https://youtu.be/g8t2U4QKABA

This weekend is the CQ World Wide CW WPX contest. You may be sought
after if you have a 2x1 call sign (like my former call, KT7H)
because the first few characters of your call may be unique. See https://www.cqwpx.com .

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for May 19 through 25, 2022 were 154, 109, 110, 138,
132, 137, and 93, with a mean of 124.7. 10.7 cm flux was 173.2,
165.5, 166.7, 164.7, 158.2, 146.9, and 136.5, with a mean of 158.8.
Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 12, 10, 11, 5, 4, and 6, with
a mean of 8.3. Middle latitude A index was 10, 12, 9, 11, 6, 3, and
7, with a mean of 8.3.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (954:895/7)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP024
ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP24
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 24 ARLP024
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA June 17, 2022
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP024
ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA

Solar activity increased this week, which we were happy to see, with
average daily sunspot number rising from 44.4 last week to 74.3
during this reporting week, June 9-15. Sunspot numbers rose all
week, starting at 17 on Thursday, June 9 to 149 on Wednesday, June
15.

Average daily 10.7 cm solar flux increased from 99.4 to 123.9. Solar
flux peaked at 145.5 on Tuesday, June 14, but then on Thursday the
noon daily reading at the Penticton observatory was 146.7, an
increase from 140 the day before. Also on Thursday, daily sunspot
number increased from 149 on Wednesday to 159.

The Penticton observatory does three daily readings of solar flux,
but it is the local noon reading that is the official solar flux
reading of the day, and the one we report here.

You can see the readings at https://bit.ly/3b5OBNk .

The solar flux outlook appears promising for the next few days. The
June 16, 2022 forecast from the USAF Space Weather Squadron shows
solar flux at 146 on June 17-18, then 144, 140, and 138 on June
19-21, 136 on June 22-24, 100 on June 25 through July 5, then 105,
110 and 115 on July 6-8, 120 on July 9-11, 125 on July 12-16, 120 on
July 17-18, 110 on July 19 and 100 on July 20-31.

Predicted planetary A index, a measure of geomagnetic stability, is
8 on June 17-18, 5 on June 19-24, then 10, and 8 on June 25-26, 5 on
June 27 through July 7, 8 on July 8-10, then 5, 8, 12, 10 and 8 on
July 11-15, then 5 on July 16-19, then 12, 18, 10 and 8 on July
20-23, and 5 through the end of the month.

You can find daily updates for predicted solar flux and A index at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/45-day-ap-forecast.txt . Updates
are posted every afternoon, North America time.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

"Solar activity grew. The most significant phenomenon was observed
in the southeast quadrant of the solar disk - a long-duration (LDE)
M3/1n solar flare, observed at 0407 UTC on June 13, accompanied by
type-II and IV radio emissions and radio bursts.

"The associated CME was visible off the east. The arrival of the
ejected cloud of particles on Earth was calculated to the afternoon
of June 15.

"Interplanetary magnetic field strength increased at 0400 UTC on
June 15. Solar wind speed was about 500 km/s until shock arrival,
when it escalated to 550 km/s and eventually peaked at 624 km/s at
0556 UTC. The geomagnetic field was quiet to active, with an
escalation to G1 (Minor) storm levels during the 1200-1500 UTC in
reaction to CME effects.

"The MUF increase caused by the storm was registered on June 15 at
two intervals, first after 0600 UTC and second before 1200 UTC. In
the afternoon to evening a decrease in MUF followed, an increase in
the decline and an overall worsening.

"Solar activity will remain elevated for several days, which will
help conditions return to above average levels. However, in the
Earth's northern hemisphere, sporadic-E layer will cause very
irregular development, from increased attenuation to more frequent
opening of the shortest shortwave bands."

Here are some solar flare updates:

https://bit.ly/3xvycJO

https://bit.ly/3O0re6B

Thanks to K5EM of the Western Washington DX Club for this study of
sporadic-E:

https://bit.ly/39zqIxk

Here is some information about the Maunder Minimum:

https://bit.ly/3QubESn

Go to https://www.spaceweather.com and look for an article that
appeared June 15-16 titled "Mapping a Magnetic Superstorm."

Look for this fascinating map: https://www.spaceweather.com/images2022/12jun22/resistivity.jpg .

It purports to show which areas are more vulnerable to effects from
geomagnetic storms due to variations in ground and infrastructure
conductivity.

Next weekend is ARRL Field Day, a favorite operating activity for
many of us. The current outlook shows modest solar flux and perhaps
slightly elevated geomagnetic activity. Predicted solar flux for
June 24-26 is 136, 100 and 100, with planetary A index at 5, 10 and
8. Field Day starts on Saturday, but it is worth looking at
predictions for Friday.

Look for an update in next week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin
ARLP025. Field Day rules are at, http://www.arrl.org/field-day .

A few days ago, Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, posted this:

https://youtu.be/pv4QmVfz95A

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for June 9 through 15, 2022 were 17, 33, 41, 63, 96,
121, and 149, with a mean of 74.3. 10.7 cm flux was 106.4, 110.5,
112.1, 121.3, 131.5, 145.5, and 140, with a mean of 123.9. Estimated
planetary A indices were 5, 5, 8, 9, 13, 8, and 20, with a mean of
9.7. Middle latitude A index was 6, 6, 10, 12, 14, 10, and 18, with
a mean of 10.9.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (954:895/7)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP025
ARLP025 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP25
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 25 ARLP025
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA June 24, 2022
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP025
ARLP025 Propagation de K7RA

This past reporting week (June 16-22) began with a bang, when the
daily sunspot number was 159. But sunspot numbers declined every day
to finally reach 80 on June 22.

One new sunspot group emerged on June 15, another on June 16, one
more on June 18, and another on June 21.

Average daily sunspot number over the week was 124.6, up
substantially from 74.3 the previous seven days.

Average daily solar flux rose from 123.9 to 140.5.

Average daily planetary A index rose from 9.7 to 11.4, and the
middle latitude numbers increased one point to 11.9

It was great to see the Sun covered with spots on Spaceweather.com.
Use the Archives feature toward the upper right, and you can see the
daily solar images on the left side of the page for any date in the
past. I particularly appreciated the image of June 17, our Sun
blanketed with sunspots!

Unfortunately, a California wildfire cut off power to the Solar
Dynamics Observatory Data Center at Stanford University, so solar
images are not being provided, according to Spaceweather.com.

ARRL Field Day is this weekend. What is the outlook?

The latest from US Air Force forecasters Housseal and King at the
USAF 557th Weather Wing shows predicted solar flux at 120, 115 and
110 on June 24-26, and Planetary A index of 8, 12 and 15. Field Day
is actually on June 25-26, but it is useful to see the prediction
for Friday. The planetary A index shoes a moderate but increasing
geomagnetic instability.

Newsweek reported a recent sunspot:

https://bit.ly/3xNdZiB

The latest (Thursday night) forecast from USAF shows solar flux at
120 and 115 on June 24-25, 110 on June 26-27, 100 on June 28-29, 105
on June 30, 100 on July 1-2, then 105, 110, 115, 120 and 125 on July
3-7, 130 on July 8-9, 135 on July 10, 140 on July 11-16, then 138,
134, 125 and 121 on July 17-20, then 114, 118 and 105 on July 21-23,
100 on July 24-29, then 105, 110, 115 and 120 on July 30 through
August 2.

The planetary A index prediction is 8, 12, and 15 on June 24-26, 5
on June 27 to July 7, then 8, 8, 12 and 8 on July 8-11, 5 on July 12-13,
12 on July 14-16, 10 on July 17, 5 on July 18-19, then 12, 18, 12 and 10
on July 20-23, then 5 on July 24 through August 3, and 8 on August 4-5.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

"The distribution of active areas on the Sun according to
heliographic latitudes has changed relatively little during the last
three solar rotations, therefore the predictions of the overall
solar activity level were quite reliable.

"The parameters of the solar wind, measured around the Earth, and
the activity of the geomagnetic field had a similar course.

"The highest usable frequencies of the ionospheric layer F2 (MUF)
were increased on June 19-20. The sporadic E layer played the most
important role in the shortwave propagation on June 16-19."

The latest space weather video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/whjz9b0kLhY

A story about how "We can't reliably predict solar cycles" can be
found at:

https://bit.ly/3NiMbbx

I have no idea what prompted an incredible series of news stories
late Thursday. Was it a slow news day? Perhaps an indication of a
respite from national tragedies?

The following websites contain stories about our Sun, and the
emergence of a big spot. Interesting because on Thursday the sunspot
number declined to 69 from 80 the day before, and much lower
compared to the 124.6 average for the previous seven days:

https://bit.ly/3zZ30VU

https://bit.ly/3ODJiTP

https://bit.ly/3OEDgCA

https://bit.ly/3bdRWtI

https://bit.ly/39R3SBu

https://bit.ly/3nf1B6c

https://bit.ly/3NieXsZ

https://bit.ly/3nf1QhC

https://youtu.be/EJj_zseYqQs

https://bit.ly/3HOJOMC

https://bit.ly/3yfrIA8

https://bit.ly/3Ngyiun

https://bit.ly/3QMSw1O

https://bit.ly/3OjuY38

https://bit.ly/3yiUY9q

https://bit.ly/3HNMMAO

https://bit.ly/3tXVlDo

https://bit.ly/3HOhvhe

https://inhabitat.com/massive-sunspot-glares-at-the-earth/

https://bit.ly/3Ngzyh5

https://bit.ly/3yhj2cH

https://bit.ly/3QKwcGb

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
please email the author at, k7ra (at) arrl.net .

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for June 16 through 22, 2022 were 159, 152, 145,
120, 112, 104, and 80, with a mean of 124.6. 10.7 cm flux was 146.7,
148.9, 140.2, 143.6, 136.5, 138.8, and 128.7, with a mean of 140.5.
Estimated planetary A indices were 12, 13, 14, 12, 10, 8, and 11,
with a mean of 11.4. Middle latitude A index was 14, 14, 15, 10, 10,
10, and 10, with a mean of 11.9.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (954:895/7)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP026
ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP26
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 26 ARLP026
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA July 1, 2022
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP026
ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

Solar activity took a dramatic plunge over the recent reporting week
(June 23 to 29) but geomagnetic activity stayed exactly the same.
Field Day weekend saw rising geomagnetic numbers, with planetary A
index at 8, 16 and 23, Friday through Sunday.

On Sunday the geomagnetic activity was a problem, although not
severe, with many stations in Field Day reporting increased
absorption. The planetary K index peaked at 5 (a big number) at the
end of the UTC day on Saturday and continued into the early hours of
Sunday, which was early Saturday evening here on the West Coast.

This happened because of a crack in Earth's magnetosphere, detailed
here:

https://bit.ly/3ONZdQ9

Compared to the previous seven days, average daily sunspot numbers
declined from 124.6 to 49.1, while average daily solar flux dropped
from 140.5 to 105.3.

Planetary and middle latitude A-index averages were both the same as
the previous week, all numbers around 11.

The prediction from the USAF 557th Weather Wing is not very
optimistic, with solar flux peaking at 140 on July 11 to 16.

The prediction shows 10.7 cm solar flux at 90 on July 1, 95 on July
2, 105 on July 3 to 5, then 110, 120, 130 and 135 on July 7 to 10,
140 on July 11 to 16, then 135, 130, 125 and 120 on July 17 to 20,
and 115, 110, 105 and 100 on July 21 to 24, 95 on July 25 and 26,
100 on July 27 to 29, then 105, 110, 115, 120 and 125 on July 30
through August 3, then 130 on August 4 and 5, and back to 140 again
on August 7 to 12.

Predicted planetary A-index is 5 on July 1 to 7, then 8, 8, 12 and 8
on July 8 to 11, 5 on July 12 and 13, 12 on July 14 to 16, 10 on
July 17, 8 on July 18 to 21, then 12, 15, 15 and 10 on July 22 to
25, and 5 on July 26 through August 4, then 8, 12 and 8 on August 5
to 7.

F. K. Janda, OK1HH writes, "Solar activity has declined over the
last seven days. Geomagnetic activity was highest on June 26
(G1-class geomagnetic storm broke out around midnight UT on June 25
and 26) and was lower on June 28 and 29. On June 26, a big, bright
CME billowed away from the sun's southern hemisphere. A slow-moving
CME that left the sun could pass close to Earth on June 30. The
near miss, if it occurs, could disturb our planet's magnetic field.

A dark filament of magnetism erupted in the sun's northern
hemisphere on June 28, but no CME was observed after the explosion.
Shortwave propagation conditions were relatively worse on June 26
and 27. After that, they began to improve, but only very slowly due
to the declining solar activity."

A new space weather report and forecast from Dr. Tamitha Skov,
WX6SWW, our Space Weather Woman.

https://youtu.be/0yAS_FpLTsk

Tomas Bayer of the Department of Geomagnetism, RWC Prague, at the
Budkov Observatory wrote this geomagnetic activity summary:

"After the last active events on June 24 to 26, which without a
storm event did not exceed the active level (local K-index = 4), we
expect a geomagnetic activity decrease to quiet to unsettled level
during the coming seven days.

More unsettled geomagnetic activity can be expected about July 3 and
4, and also at the end of the currently forecast period on July 7.
Then we expect geomagnetic activity at a quiet to unsettled level."

Here are pictures of the Budkov Observatory:

https://bit.ly/3ugnUfv

https://bit.ly/3bH9Pl4

How big is our nearest star?

https://bit.ly/3yb6cv6

Cycle forecasts, wrong or right?

https://bit.ly/3R3HQfF

Storm watch, from the popular press:

https://bit.ly/3bGvXfs

Reader David Moore, a frequent contributor, sent this:

https://bit.ly/3Agoo9g

It hasn't been updated recently, but here is a blog devoted to
propagation:

http://ka5dwipropagation.blogspot.com

Send your tips, questions or comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for June 23 through 29, 2022 were 69, 60, 31, 33,
32, 71, and 48, with a mean of 49.1. 10.7 cm flux was 121.4, 115.4,
108.1, 102, 98.2, 96.1, and 96.2, with a mean of 105.3. Estimated
planetary A indices were 10, 8, 16, 23, 12, 8, and 6, with a mean of
11.9. Middle latitude A index was 12, 8, 14, 15, 15, 11, and 7, with
a mean of 11.7.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (954:895/7)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP032
ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP32
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 32 ARLP032
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA August 12, 2022
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP032
ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA

Solar activity did a rebound this week, back to more active levels.

Average daily sunspot number increased from 36.6 to 65.4.

Average daily 10.7 cm solar flux rose from 95.7 to 111.9.

Solar wind caused geomagnetic numbers to rise, with average
planetary A index going from 7.7 to 14.4, and middle latitude
numbers from 8.6 to 12.1.

An improved outlook shows solar flux over the next month peaking at
116 on September 2 to 4. The forecast from USAF/NOAA on Thursday
evening was improved from Wednesday.

A look at ARLP032 from 2021 gives a perspective on solar cycle
progress. A year ago, average sunspot number was 6 and average
solar flux was just 74.8. Quite a difference from 65.4 and 111.9
during the past week.

Predicted flux values are 115 on August 12 to 14, 110 on August 15
to 18, 108 on August 19, 104 on August 20 and 21, then 98, 100, 102,
100, 102, and 100 on August 22 to 27, then 102 on August 28 to 30,
then 108 and 114 on August 31 and September 1, 116 on September 2 to
4, 112 on September 5 to 7. 110 on September 8 and 9, then 108 on
September 10 to 12, 106 on September 13, then 104 on September 14 to
16, 102 on September 17 and 98 on September 18.

Predicted planetary A index is 12 on August 12, 5 on August 13 to 16
then 10, 12 and 15 on August 17 to 19, 8 on August 20 and 21, 5 on
August 22 to 26, 12 on August 27, 8 on August 28 to 30, 5 on August
31 through September 2, then 14, 18, 14, 10 and 8 on September 3 to
7, and 5 on September 8 to 12, then 22 on September 13, 15 on
September 14 and 15, 8 on September 16, and 5 on September 17 to 22.

OK1HH commented:

"A geomagnetic disturbance rarely comes completely unexpectedly.
And even more so in a situation where its source cannot be located
(or selected from several locations). Moreover, lasting five days.
All this happened between August 7th and 11th.

At higher latitudes, the 'STEVE' phenomenon was sighted on August 7
(Strong Thermal Emission Velocity Enhancement). STEVE is a recent
discovery. It looks like an aurora, but it's not.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STEVE

It all started with a positive phase of disturbance in the
ionosphere, when shortwave propagation improved. The development
continued with a deterioration of propagation in the negative phase
on August 8, followed by generally below average conditions in the
following days. With a strong influence of sporadic layer E, whose
activity usually increases as the Perseids meteor shower approaches
maximum (expected on 12 and 13 August). They are also called the
'Tears of St. Lawrence'.

Starting August 12 onward, we expect a longer mostly quiet period."

NASA expects increasing activity:

https://bit.ly/3QjOLk5

Always appreciate The Sun Now page from the Solar Dynamics
Observatory:

https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/

Yet another cycle prediction method:

https://bit.ly/3SKm29J

Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW has a 200 minute part 2 of a course on ground
effects:

https://youtu.be/cOom5LQ_LBY

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for August 4 through 10, 2022 were 52, 69, 69, 87,
63, 58, and 60, with a mean of 65.4. 10.7 cm flux was 108.8, 112.2,
116.3, 116.1, 113, 109.4, and 107.6, with a mean of 111.9.
Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 6, 4, 24, 31, 19, and 11, with
a mean of 14.4. Middle latitude A index was 7, 7, 5, 20, 21, 15,
and 10, with a mean of 12.1.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (954:895/7)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP033
ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP33
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 33 ARLP033
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA August 19, 2022
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP033
ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA

At 2334 UTC on August 17, the Australian Space Weather Forecast
Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning.

"Periods of G1 conditions expected during 19 and 20 Aug due to the
combination of coronal hole high speed wind stream and several
coronal mass ejections observed in the last few days. There is a
chance of isolated periods of G2 over 19 and 20 Aug."

Local TV newscasts here in Seattle noted the possibility of aurora
Thursday night, although observers would need to travel to dark
areas away from the city for any chance of successful viewing. They recommended using a tripod mounted camera pointed north with a long
exposure time. This is good advice, as often the dramatic aurora
photos are done this way, and viewing with the naked eye you see a
much less dramatic image.

Last week we noted increasing solar activity, and it continued.
Average daily sunspot numbers increased from 36.6 to 65.4 last week,
to 95.6 in the current reporting period, August 11 to 17. Average
daily solar flux went from 95.7 to 111.9 last week, and 123.7 this
week.

But solar flux values have pulled back in recent days, with a peak
of 134.3 at 1700 UTC on August 15, followed by the standard 2000 UTC
local noon readings of 128.5, 122.7, and 116.5 on August 16 to 18.

Predicted solar flux is 125 and 120 August 19 and 20, 115 on August
21 to 23, then 110 on August 24 and 25, then 100, 94, 96 and 98 on
August 26 to 29, then 100, 108 and 114 on August 30 through
September 1, then 116 on September 2 and 3, 112 on September 4, 108
on September 5 and 6, then 115, 120, 124 and 126 on September 7 to
10, 124 on September 11 and 12, then 122, 118, 112, 108 and 102 on
September 13 to 17, then 100 on September 18 and 19, and 94 on
September 20 to 23, then climbing to 116 at the end of the month.

Predicted planetary A index is 30, 25 and 8 on August 19 to 21, 5 on
August 22 to 26, 12 on August 27, 8 on August 28 to 30, 5 on August
31 through September 2, then 24, 28, 18 and 10 on September 3 to 6,
and 14, 8, 10 and 8 on September 7 to 10, then 5, 5, 20 and 15 on
September 11 to 14, then 12, 12 and 8 on September 15 to 17, and 5
on September 18 to 22, then 12 on September 23, and 8 on September
24 to 26.

OK1HH writes:

"A week ago (since August 12) solar activity started to increase
very slowly. Since August 13, the eruptive activity in the active
sunspot AR3079 in the southwest of the solar disk has increased. On
August 14 it was already possible to predict massive geomagnetic
disturbances for August 17 and 18 based on the observed CMEs. The
solar wind speed slowly decreased until August 16. In the meantime,
eruptive activity increased in AR3078, where moderate strength
eruptions were observed daily since 15 August.

The sunspot group AR3078 developed a delta-class magnetic field,
continued to grow, and continued to produce medium-sized flares that
caused minor shortwave radio blackouts. The strongest eruption to
date, an M5 category burst on August 16 at 0758 UTC caused a
shortwave radio blackout over the Indian Ocean.

A series of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) added their effect to a
possible 'cannibal CME event' (if a second CME could overtake and
engulf the first, creating a mishmash of the two). The forecast for
a massive geomagnetic disturbance has been extended to August 17 to
19.

Active sunspot AR3078 is producing strong solar flares of class M
for the third consecutive day. The most recent, an M2 explosion on
17 August (1345 UT), hurled a plume of cool dark plasma into space.
But like the other CMEs produced by AR3078 this week, this one will
pass through the southern edge of Earth's impact zone. So the
disturbance won't be as widespread as if the CME had hit Earth
directly.

The increased activity on 15 to 17 August caused improved shortwave
propagation conditions and a noticeable increase in MUF. The best
day was August 17. A significant deterioration and decrease in MUF
occurred on 18 August. In the following days, the solar flare
activity and the intensity of geomagnetic disturbances start to
decrease. A calming trend can be expected after about 22 August."

Tamitha Skov says "Don't worry, this is not a Carrington Event", in
an 84 minute video titled "Incoming Solar Storm Crush":

https://youtu.be/TCypTeodMYo

Even Newsweek is reporting it:

https://bit.ly/3K0S5hw

https://bit.ly/3PzcTOg

And of course, British tabloids:

https://bit.ly/3wb0zgc

And NOAA:

https://bit.ly/3A537Ob

Violent solar activity:

https://bit.ly/3K3uQDw

Strong storm:

https://bit.ly/3c998kT

Aurora in Montana:

https://bit.ly/3QCbzeK

Radiation storm!

https://bit.ly/3AwWuFR

John Kludt, K7SYS asked, "I recently moved from the Atlanta,
Georgia, area to Sandpoint, Idaho.

My question is that in geomagnetic forecasts they make a distinction
between 'mid-latitudes' and 'high-latitudes.' Where do
'mid-latitudes' stop and 'high-latitudes' begin?

The other mystery to me is looking at my logbook since moving here
two years ago, it would seem I was working more Dx at solar cycle
minimum than I am now. The station is the same for the entire
period and all of the numbers I track on my antennas are stable.

One of the conclusions I have come to, maybe incorrectly, is 'The
good news is the sun is more active and the bad news is the sun is
more active.' As with so many things, there is no free lunch."

My response: I don't know of any standards specifying what defines
high latitude or low latitude, except for North America, Atlanta at
33.8 degrees north would be low latitude, Sandpoint at 48.3 degrees
would be moderately high for North America, and Fairbanks, Alaska at
64.8 degrees would be high.

I remember years ago K7VV was living in Alaska and reported to me
that during a particularly long period of high geomagnetic activity,
there just was no HF propagation, due to the concentration of the
disturbance closer to the poles.

You might notice better propagation from Atlanta. I've noticed
using PSKreporter.info on 10 meters FT8, looking at the "country of
callsign" setting, often it shows lots of propagation from the SE
states and nothing here in the northwest. Don't know why that is,
but gradually the propagation will drift out this way. So Atlanta
being 3 hours earlier will show 10 meter propagation before we get
it here. It seems to me that often HF propagation from southern
states is better than it is here for us in the Pacific Northwest,
what Jack Bock, K7ZR (SK) referred to as the "sufferin' sevens".

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for August 11 through 17, 2022 were 58, 97, 116,
104, 92, 119, and 83, with a mean of 95.6. 10.7 cm flux was 114.8,
119.5, 124.2, 125.5, 130.6, 128.5, and 122.7, with a mean of 123.7.
Estimated planetary A indices were 16, 7, 10, 7, 6, 5, and 31, with
a mean of 11.7. Middle latitude A index was 12, 6, 10, 9, 6, 5, and
22, with a mean of 10.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (954:895/7)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP005
ARLP005 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP05
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 5 ARLP005
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA February 3, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP005
ARLP005 Propagation de K7RA

Solar activity softened again this week, with average daily sunspot
numbers changing from 162 to 80.7, and solar flux from 198.9 to
139.5.

This is quite a dramatic shift from the excitement of a couple of
weeks ago. To review, average weekly sunspot numbers from the first
Propagation Forecast bulletin of 2023 went from 97 to 135.9, 173.4
and 162. Average weekly solar flux from 157.8 to 181.2, 221.8 and
198.9.

This variability is expected. Soon, perhaps in the next solar
rotation, activity will rise again. The graphs we see of smoothed
sunspot numbers are smooth because the numbers are averaged over a
whole year.

Geomagnetic numbers barely changed at all, with planetary A index
shifting only from 8.1 to 7.9 and the middle latitude numbers did
not change at all, 5.9 last week and 5.9 this week.

Predicted solar flux is 135 on February 3, 140 on February 4-5, 145
on February 6, 150 on February 7-9, 155 on February 10-13, 150 on
February 14-16, 145 on February 17, 140 on February 18-19, 135 on
February 20, 130 on February 21-23, 125 on February 24-25, 140 on
February 26-27, 135 on February 28 through March 4, then 140 and 145
on March 5-6, 150 on March 7-8. and 155 on March 9-12.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5 and 5 on February 3-5, 10 on
February 6-7, 8 on February 8-9, then 12, 5, 8 and 8 on February
10-13, 5 on February 14-17, then 8, 7, 5 and 5 on February 18-21, 10
on February 22-24, 5 on February 25-27, then 15, 10 and 8 on
February 28 to March 2, and 5 on March 3-5, then 15 on March 6-8,
then 12, 8 and 7 on March 9-11 and 5 on March 12-16.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere February 3-9, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

"January this year was another surprise in the development of Solar
Cycle 25, although we are still about two years away from its peak.
Sunspots have grown larger, while the configuration of the magnetic
fields that make them up has become increasingly complex, leading to
an increase in the number and intensity of eruptions, so far only
moderately powerful.

"Solar flux between 12 and 21 January was above 200, while the solar
wind increased.

"In the last week, after the large sunspot groups AR3190 and AR3192
fell behind the western limb of the solar disk, solar activity
decreased. Between January 27-29 and February 1, solar wind
intensified, apparently still blowing from the active regions that
had already set.

"Further, we expect an irregular evolution without major
fluctuations. Helioseismological observations show that the activity
of AR3190 and AR3192 continue on the Sun's far side. We'll have to
wait another week for their reappearance on the eastern limb."

Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW in Easton, Pennsylvania reports again on his
10 meter FM activity. He notes the daily solar flux dropped about
100 points from mid-January, but good 10 meter propagation
continues.

Daily from 1300-1600 UTC he has good propagation to Europe, and is
recently hearing Israel on 10 meter FM, about 5,700 miles away via
F2 propagation.

Mike notes, "Remember, 29.6 MHz is the national FM calling
frequency, after making the initial contact you should QSY to a
lower frequency, such as 29.5 or 29.49 MHz, to continue the QSO."

Jim Hadlock, posting to the email list for the Western Washington DX
Club noted that sunspot numbers recently hit a 9-year high.

Jim posted this from Spaceweather.com:

https://bit.ly/40DEzsj

Scott Avery, WA6LIE wrote:

"Today was a fluke on 10 meters FT8. I worked LA7HJA on FT8 on
Thursday February 2nd at 0041 UTC. He gave me a +04 and I gave him
a -13 dB report. Great reports and tried calling one other LA, but
no luck. I confirmed the QSO with his ClubLog.

"For the past month or so, European openings are from about
1500-1730 UTC here in California.

"Have no clue to the method of propagation on this late afternoon's
QSO. LP?

"I was just using a wire Delta Loop at 30' feedpoint, part of my
inverted Vees all common feedpoint.

"You know in this hobby you just got to be in the right place at the
right time!"

Toivo Mykkanen, W8TJM in Liberty Lake, Washington wrote:

"Just had the best Aurora Path into Scandinavia since we last spoke
last year. Today, 1 Feb, I was able to work 4 stations on SSB in
Finland from Eastern Washington and all of them were 10-15 dB over
S9 with a slight bit of flutter. It was 10 PM in Finland, well after
15 meters usually shuts down there. Was great to connect with my
heritage as my parents are from Finland. The Finnish stations were
working stations all across the USA and Canada."

Bil Paul, KD8JUI, recalling television reception at the peak of
Solar Cycle 19, wrote:

"We were in Wisconsin, around '58 or '59, and we could usually only
pick up with good reception two TV stations. One Sunday morning I
got up and switched on the TV. I started getting good reception from
the SE U.S., Georgia and Florida.

"As time went on, the skip gradually changed to receiving Alabama
and Mississippi, and finally ended with Texas. I'm not sure what
frequencies were being used for those channels (2 through 13) back
then."

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers January 26 through February 1, 2023 were 104, 84,
76, 80, 67, 65, and 89, with a mean of 80.7. 10.7 cm flux was 150.6,
144.9, 137.6, 137, 135.9, 137, and 133.5, with a mean of 139.5.
Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 9, 10, 5, 5, 9, and 6, with a
mean of 7.9. Middle latitude A index was 9, 6, 8, 5, 4, 6, and 3,
with a mean of 5.9.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (954:895/7)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP006
ARLP006 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP06
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 6 ARLP006
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA February 10, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP006
ARLP006 Propagation de K7RA

A period of rising solar activity returned this week.

Ten new sunspot groups appeared this reporting week (February 2-8),
two on February 3, one each on February 4-5, four more on February
6, and two more on February 8.

On February 9, three more sunspot groups emerged.

Early on February 9 Spaceweather.com reported a large emerging
sunspot over our Sun's southeast horizon.

Average daily sunspot number this week rose from 80.7 to 95.1, and
average daily solar flux from 139.5 to 155.9.

On Thursday, February 9 both the sunspot number and solar flux were
above the average for the previous seven days. Sunspot number at 150
compared to the average 95.1 and solar flux at 214.9 compared to the
average of 155.9. Both indicate an upward trend.

Geomagnetic indicators rose, planetary A index from 7.9 to 11.7,
middle latitude numbers from 5.9 to 7.6.

The rise in geomagnetic activity was related to solar wind late in
the reporting week.

The solar flux prediction on Wednesday was 192 for February 9 (the
actual noon solar flux was 214.9), then 195 on February 10-13. As
you can see below, the Thursday prediction is more optimistic for
the next few days.

Predicted solar flux is 214 on February 10, 212 on February 11-13,
then 208, 205 and 202 on February 14-16, 150 on February 17-18, then
145, 140, 135, 130 and 135 on February 19-23, 130 on February 24-26,
125 on February 27, 130 on February 28 through March 3, then 135,
150 and 160 on March 4-6, 155 on March 7-8, 160 on March 9, and 155
on March 10-12, then 150 on March 13-17.

Predicted planetary A index is 12 and 8 on February 10-11, then 5
on February 12-17, 8 on February 18-19, 5 on February 20-21, 10 on
February 22-24, then 5, 5 and 8 on February 25-27, and 5, 5, and 8
on February 28 through March 2, then 5, 5, and 10 on March 3-5, then
15, 15, 12 and 8 on March 6-9, then 5 on March 10-16, 8 on March
17-18, 5 on March 19-20 and 10 on March 21-23.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

"Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - February 9, 2023.

"Solar activity was lower between 26 January and 6 February, as
expected. Two weeks ago, large sunspot groups AR3190 and AR3192,
fell behind the Sun's western limb. They have now appeared near the
eastern limb as AR3217 and AR3218. In particular, the region of
AR3217 was already letting us know of its activity with plasma
bursts before we could observe it.

"Thereafter we observed moderate flares in it. AR3217 and AR3218
will now move through the solar disk, and the increase in solar
activity will continue.

"On February 7, rapidly developing sunspot group AR3213 suddenly
appeared, where at most only two small spots could be observed
shortly before. Medium-sized flares were observed in AR3213 in the
following days.

"Another new activity was the increase in the Earth's magnetic field
activity starting on February 6.

"The subsequent increase in the MUF (highest usable frequencies of
the ionospheric F2 layer) has been slow and irregular so far. We
will have to wait a few more days for its higher values."

Check out Scott Craig, WA4TTK and his Solar Data Plotting Utility.
He wrote it several decades ago back in the days of MS-DOS, and the
Windows version still works today. It displays sunspot numbers and
solar flux all the way back to January 1, 1989:

http://www.craigcentral.com/sol.asp

Click the "Download SOL313W.ZIP" file to install the program, then
download the updated GRAPH.dat file for the latest data. It is
updated to last week, so you can try out the data insertion on this
bulletin.

He posted a new copy of the data file, provided by N1API.

The utility will update the data every week by pointing it toward a
copy of our bulletin in .txt format.

The GRAPH.dat file is in text format and can be imported into a
spreadsheet program to display the data any way you want.

Tech Times and Weather.com articles on a Radio Blackout:

https://bit.ly/40J3g6m

https://bit.ly/3lojTnY

KB1DK sent this article about something occurring on our Sun:

https://bit.ly/3Xju0r9

Larry, W0OGH in Cochise County, Arizona wrote:

"Who says you can't have fun running QRP?

"I started playing with QRP on CW, my KX3 at 10W and 10M 4 element
Yagi just after February 1.

"Why so late in the game? I don't know but maybe it was because the
signals took such an upturn in strength.

"Have been working some POTA stations QRP but no DX until February 1
when I worked E77DX, OK9PEP, PA1CC, DS2HWS, UA1CE, YL3FT, UY2VM,
HB0/HB9LCW, OT4A, ON4KHG, S01WS, ZX89L, CX5FK, 9A/UW1GZ, LZ1ND,
PA3EVY, YU1JW, F6IQA, EA6ACA, ON5ZZ, GM4ATA, OP4F, EI0CZ and many
more, all on 10 meters.

"But the kicker and best of all was working EP2ABS on the morning of
2/6/23 at 1654 UTC on 28.0258 MHz.

"First time ever in 65 years that I have ever worked an Iran station
much less heard one. He was really strong and calling CQ getting no
answers. At the same time I called him, another station called as
well but he came back to me.

"Thereafter he had a pileup, but his signal started dropping off, so
I caught him at the right time. Maybe a duct? Yep, the DX is out
there on 10M and when the band is hot, you gotta be there.

"I have even worked some AM stations on and above 29.000 MHz with
QRP. Lots more fun than high power which in my case is 100W from my
K3."

A friend here in Seattle worked him on the same day, was very
surprised, and mentioned a friend in California who worked EP2ABS
with 100 watts and an 18 foot wire.

Another "news" source reporting rising solar activity as some sort
of existential threat:

https://bit.ly/3YiRcXP

https://bit.ly/3RQ8CZz

A more reliable source:

https://bit.ly/3YAAIu4

Dr. Tamitha Skov's, WX6SWW, latest report from February 5:

https://youtu.be/1Bcmzj7h_mY

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net . When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for February 2 through 8, 2023 were 56, 74, 66, 79,
139, 110, and 142, with a mean of 95.1. 10.7 cm flux was 134.9,
134.5, 139, 144, 156.7, 184.7, and 197.6, with a mean of 155.9.
Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 9, 6, 5, 18, 20, and 18, with
a mean of 11.7. Middle latitude A index was 2, 6, 5, 3, 13, 12, and
12, with a mean of 7.6.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (954:895/7)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP007
ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP07
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 7 ARLP007
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA February 17, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP007
ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA

At 0725 UTC on February 15 the Australian Space Weather Forecasting
Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning: "A CME impact
occurred around 2200 UTC on February 14. Bz has been southward for
the majority of time since impact and there is a chance of G1
geomagnetic conditions."

Bz is the north-south direction of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
(IMF).

They predicted a disturbance for February 15-16.

They issued a new warning on February 17 at 0206 UTC:

"A partial halo CME observed on 15-Feb is due to impact Earth's
magnetosphere late on 17-Feb or early 18-Feb UTC. G1 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 18-Feb, with a slight chance of G2.

"INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS
EJECTION FROM 17-19 FEBRUARY 2023."

For the latest geomagnetic conditions, I prefer this source:

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index

More on the IMF:

https://bit.ly/3E6IZ15

Many sunspots appeared over this reporting week (February 9-15) with
three new sunspot groups on February 9, one more on February 10, two
more on February 11, another on February 12 and three more on
February 13. Finally, there was one more yesterday, Thursday,
February 16.

Recent sunspot images:

https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/12feb23/hmi1898.gif

That one is for February 12. To see February 13, just change the
12feb23 string to 13feb23, and so on, for any other date.

Average daily sunspot numbers increased from 95.1 to 182.4, and
average daily solar flux from 155.9 to 196.4.

Geomagnetic activity also rose, with average daily planetary A index
going from 11.7 to 13.7, and middle latitude numbers from 7.6 to
10.7.

The most active days were at the beginning and end of the week, with
planetary A index at 21 on February 9 and 29 on February 15. On
those two days the college A index at Fairbanks, Alaska was 33 and
46. The quietest day was Monday, February 13 when the planetary A
index was 4.

The outlook for the next month seems modest, with predicted solar
flux at 155, 160, 155, 145 and 135 on February 17-21, 125 on
February 22-23, 130 on February 24-26, 140 on February 27 to March
1, 145 on March 2-3, then 150, 155 and 165 on March 4-6, 180 on
March 7-13, 170 on March 14-15, 160 on March 16-18, and 150 on March
19, 140 on March 20-21, and 135 on March 22-25.

Predicted planetary A index is 22, 30, 12, 8 and 12 on February
17-21, 10 on February 22-24, then 5, 5 and 8 on February 25-27,
another 5, 5, and 8 on February 28 through March 2, then 5, 5 and 16
on March 3-5, then 18, 15 and 8 on March 6-8, and 5 on March 9-20,
then 10 on March 21-23, and 5, 5 and 8 on March 24-26, and another
5, 5 and 8 on March 27-29.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - February 16, 2023, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

"On February 11, we observed a seemingly dangerous sunspot group
AR3217, whose magnetic field had a beta-gamma-delta configuration,
in which large flares are often observed, up to X-class flares
accompanied by CMEs. This is what we saw at 1548 UTC, while extreme
UV radiation ionized the upper part of the Earth's atmosphere.
Direct result was the Dellinger effect, which disrupted shortwave communications over all of South America.

"But this particular eruption did not create a CME. Another
explosion did. Five hours before the X eruption, a magnetic filament
appeared in the northern hemisphere of the Sun, which spewed a CME
into space. Thereafter we were expecting an Earth impact on
Valentine's Day, February 14. This was a fairly accurate prediction
because the Earth's intervention occurred just one day later, on
February 15. It was not a direct hit, only a weak G1 class
geomagnetic storm developed.

"On February 15 a magnetic filament eruption near the solar equator
and another CME heading towards Earth was observed. We can expect an
arrival on February 17-18, again as a weak G1 class geomagnetic
storm, perhaps intensifying to a mild G2 class storm on February 18.
Further we can expect to see more M-class solar flares in the next
few days. Also, an X-class flare is not out of the question. In
addition, the AR3226 sunspot group with an unstable magnetic field,
is directly facing the Earth."

Impossible but dramatic solar image:

https://bit.ly/3Ib3eMp

Spaceweather.com warns:

"GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: Photographers, warm up your cameras. A CME
is heading for Earth, and it could spark an unusually good display
of Northern Lights when it arrives on Feb. 17-18. NOAA forecasters
say that moderate G2-class geomagnetic storms are possible. During
such storms, auroras have been seen in the USA as far south as,
e.g., New York and Idaho."

From the Western Washington DX Club email list:

WT8P posted at 1855 UTC on February 16:

"6M FT8 open to central and SA At 1845 UTC, LU9AEA (Argentina) and
TG9AJR (Guatemala) on FT8, 50.313 MHz."

W7YED posted at 1939 UTC, February 16:

"I was able to pick up 5 new ones on 6m in the space of about 20
minutes. Nice opening!

"TI, CX, CE, LU, TG were all between +3 and -18."

A story about "vicious solar storms":

https://bit.ly/3S8g7uV

Aurora on Valentine's Day:

https://bit.ly/3YUvsSb

A video last week from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/Igfp_EK73Xk

This weekend is the CW portion of the ARRL International DX Contest.
For details see: https://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx .

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for February 9 through 15, 2023 were 150, 190, 209,
197, 185, 206, and 140, with a mean of 182.4. 10.7 cm flux was
214.9, 207.8, 209.5, 199.7, 189.2, 179.7, and 173.7, with a mean of
196.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 21, 16, 11, 7, 4, 8, and
29, with a mean of 13.7. Middle latitude A index was 16, 12, 10, 5,
3, 6, and 23, with a mean of 10.7.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (954:895/7)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP013
ARLP013 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP13
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 13 ARLP013
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA March 31, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP013
ARLP013 Propagation de K7RA

Solar activity increased this week. Average daily sunspot number
rose from 68 to 112.6, and average daily solar flux changed from
145.6 to 156.1.

A new sunspot group emerged on March 24, two more on March 26 and
27, and three on March 29.

Due to solar wind and a geomagnetic disturbance at the beginning of
the reporting week, average daily planetary A index increased from
10.6 to 23.3, while average middle latitude A index went from 8.4 to
13.7. Many reports of aurora came in this week, some down to lower
latitudes in North America.

Predicted solar flux is 135 on March 31, 130 on April 1-6, 132 on
April 7-8, then 130, 132, 135 and 135 on April 9-12, then 140, 145
and 148 on April 13-15, then 150, 150, 155, 155 and 158 on April
16-20, 160 on April 21-23, then 155, 145 and 145 on April 24-26, and
135 on April 27 through May 1, then 132 on May 2-5, then 130, 132,
135 and 135 on May 6-9.

Predicted planetary A index is 18, 16, 12, 10 and 8 on March 31
through April 4, then 5 on April 5-9, then 15, 12, 8 and 5 on April
10-13, 8 on April 14-15, then 12, 20, 15 and 5 on April 16-19, then
20, 15 and 10 on April 20-22, 8 on April 23-24, 5 on April 25-26,
then 12, 15, 10 and 8 on April 27-30, and 5 on May 1-6, then 15, 12
and 8 on May 7-9.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - March 30, 2023 from OK1HH.

"The strong geomagnetic storm on 23-24 March was not expected.
Moreover, it was classified as a G4, making it the most intense in
almost 6 years. The source of the solar wind was not identified with
certainty, but a large coronal hole in the south, near the central
meridian, could not be missed.

"As a consequence of the disturbance, the ionosphere first
experienced a rise in the critical frequencies of the F2 layer on 23
March, followed by a significant drop on 24-25 March. Their normal
values started to be registered again only after 26 March.

"Energetic flares are a reliable indicator of the increase in solar
activity. On March 29, the seventh X-class flare of the year was
registered. Yet a total of seven were registered in 2022 and only
two in 2021.

"Most of the sunspots are now on the western half of the solar disk.
As they gradually set, total solar activity will first decrease over
the next week before rising again."

Here are articles about solar activity as an existential threat:

https://bit.ly/3M28RQv

https://bit.ly/42W7xo4

https://bit.ly/40Qf6Lc

Nice sunspot video, before the aurora:

https://bit.ly/3K2alHX

AA7FV wrote on March 25:

"There was a 6-meter opening from Arizona to VK on March 24. I
received VK7HH in Tasmania at 2028 UTC on WSPR; he was using just
0.2 watts (200 mW)."

VK7HH responded:

"Yes, that WSPR spot was from my remote station running 200 mW from
a Zacktek WSPR TX into a 1/2 wave vertical antenna. HASL 931m."

AA7FV wrote:

"For reference, my 50 MHz antenna is a Cushcraft 1/2-wave vertical,
the Ringo AR6, with its base at about 10 feet above ground. The
location here is 870m asl but I'm in the valley, just outside
Tucson. The receiver is an ancient Icom PCR1000, but with a preamp.
I monitor 6m 24/7, but rarely hear any signals at all, and when I do
hear something it's usually from someone else in Arizona."

On March 25, Jon, N0JK wrote:

"Worked VP8NO in GD18 today on 6 Meter FT8 at 1905 UTC. de N0JK
EM28 in Kansas."

Jon was using a portable 2 element Yagi and running 50 watts.

Here is an article about a "Hole" in the Sun:

https://www.space.com/solar-flare-coronal-hole-space-weather

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for March 23 through 29, 2023 were 73, 108, 105,
125, 128, 114, and 135, with a mean of 112.6. 10.7 cm flux was 151,
157.5, 160.3, 159.4, 158.2, 158.7, and 147.8, with a mean of 156.1.
Estimated planetary A indices were 60, 66, 15, 8, 3, 5, and 6, with
a mean of 23.3. Middle latitude A index was 28, 40, 12, 6, 2, 4, and
4, with a mean of 13.7.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (954:895/7)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP014
ARLP014 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP14
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 14 ARLP014
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA April 7, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP014
ARLP014 Propagation de K7RA

Average solar flux and sunspot numbers were way down this week.
Sunspot numbers were down by half, from 112.6 last week to 53.4.
Average daily solar flux declined from 156.1 to 132.5.

Geomagnetic indicators were lower too. Average daily planetary A
index from 23.3 last week to 15 in this bulletin, and average daily
middle latitude A index from 13.7 to 11.7.

The April 1 middle latitude A index of 11 is my guess. The middle
latitude A index for April 1 was not available.

Predicted solar flux is 140 on April 7 and 8, 135 on April 9 to 11,
140, 145 and 130 on on April 12 to 14, 130 on April 14, 135 on April
15 to 17, 140 on April 18 to 20, 135 on April 21 to 23, then 130,
125 and 120 on April 24 to 26, 115 on April 27 to 29, 125 on April
30, 120 on May 1 and 2, 115 on May 3 and 4, then 110 on May 5 to 7,
and 115, 120, 125 and 130 on May 8 to 11, then 135 on May 12 to 14,
and 140 on May 15 to 17.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on April 7 to 10, then 8, 8 and 5
on April 11 to 13, 8 on April 14 and 15, then 12, 10 and 15 on April
16 to 18, then 5, 20, 15 and 10 on April 19 to 22, 5 on April 23 to
25, then 15 and 18 on April 26 and 27, 15 on April 28 and 29, 8 on
April 30, 10 on May 1 and 2, 8 on May 3, then 5 on May 4 to 6, then
12, 10, 8 and 5 on May 7 to 10, 8 on May 11 and 12, then 10, 12, 15,
5 and 20 on May 13 to 17.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere -- April 6, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

"On March 29, another solar flare of category X1.2 was observed. It
came from the AR3256 sunspot group near the southwestern limb of the
Sun.

This year, in just three months, we've already seen seven X-class
flares, the same as all of last year. There are still about two
years to go before the cycle peak.

On the morning of March 31, a solar wind stream hit Earth,
triggering a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm. A relatively quiet
weekend followed.

Then new sunspot group AR3270 emerged in the southern part of the
solar disk. It grew rapidly, its two dark cores, larger than Earth,
indicating an unstable magnetic field. If they merge an eruption
would likely follow. It would probably be a geoeffective eruption
because the sunspot was directly opposite the Earth.

After the AR3270 sunspot group dips behind the southwestern limb of
the solar disk this weekend, there should be a temporary drop in
overall solar activity, accompanied by a string of geomagnetically
quieter days.

As the irregular occurrence of higher geomagnetic activity results
in irregular changes in shortwave propagation conditions, the
subsequent evolution should be more regular and predictable."

This video from Tamitha Skov came out right after last week's
bulletin:

https://youtu.be/F8ERhLiOK88

More sun fun:

https://youtu.be/VWhhSWjDJtw

https://bit.ly/41aolq2

Don't worry:

https://bit.ly/3zCtg74

On April 5 from 1723 to 1746 UTC, Tom, WA1LBK in Fall River,
Massachusetts copied HC1MD/2 in Ecuador on 6 meter FT8. Check HC1MD
on QRZ.com for some beautiful photos by Rick, NE8Z.

https://bit.ly/3zBm5wa

This weekend is the CW portion of the Japan International DX
Contest.

See http://jidx.org/

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for March 30 through April 5, 2023 were 99, 61, 23,
54, 56, 44, and 37, with a mean of 53.4. 10.7 cm flux was 140.3,
129.3, 125.3, 126.9, 133.6, 135.7, and 136.6, with a mean of 132.5.
Estimated planetary A indices were 17, 21, 13, 15, 15, 13, and 11,
with a mean of 15. Middle latitude A index was 11, 17, 11, 13, 11,
10, and 9, with a mean of 11.7.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (954:895/7)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP016
ARLP016 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP16
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 16 ARLP016
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA April 21, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP016
ARLP016 Propagation de K7RA

Again this week sunspot numbers and solar flux were higher than the
week before.

Average daily sunspot numbers more than doubled, from 70.6 to 146.9,
and average daily solar flux increased from 141 to 164.5. Both
figures represent a substantial increase in solar activity.

Planetary A index averages went from 7.6 to 8.1, while middle
latitude A index advanced from 6.4 to 7.3.

Three new sunspot groups emerged on April 13, one more on April 16,
and another on April 17.

Predicted solar flux over the next few weeks is 145, 140 and 135 on
April 21-23, 130 on April 24-25, 125 on April 26-27, 160 on April
28-29, 165 on April 30, 172 on May 1-3, 170 on May 4, 172 on May
5-7, 178 on May 8, 182 on May 9-12, then 175, 178 and 170 on May
13-15, 168 on May 16-17, 175 on May 18, then 172 on May 19-21, then
168 and 162 on May 22-23, 160 on May 24-26, 165 on May 27, and 172
on May 28-30.

Predicted planetary A index is 20, 16, 12 and 8 on April 21-24, 5 on
April 25-27, 15 on April 28-30, then 12 and 10 on May 1-2, 8 on May
3-4, 5 on May 5-6, 12 on May 7, 5 on May 8-10, then 8 on May 11-12,
5 on May 13-18, then 10, 8, 5 and 5 on May 19-22, 15 and 18 on May
23-24, 15 on May 25-27, then 12 and 10 on May 28-29.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - April 20, 2023 from OK1HH.

"Of the fifteen sunspot groups observed over the past week, AR3272
and AR3282 were the source of most of the flares. Both had a
beta-gamma magnitude configuration. 61 C-class flares and 4 M-class
flares were observed.

"The partial halo CMEs on 15 and 16 April were the source of
particles that reached Earth on 18 April, when the solar wind speed
increased abruptly at 1308 UTC and a geomagnetic disturbance
developed.

"A positive phase of the ionospheric disturbance was recorded on the
afternoon of 18 April, followed by a negative phase on 19 April.
This was followed on 20 April with a significant increase in f0F2
and improved shortwave propagation conditions before noon UTC.

"The outlook looks promising for the first half of May, when solar
activity should increase further."

Dan Handa, W7WA commented on the news last week about the current
solar cycle reaching a peak earlier than predicted, perhaps by the
end of this year.

I told him I hoped it would not peak early, because I wanted to see
several more years of increasing activity.

Dan sent a very detailed graph of Solar Cycle 19 from 1954 to 1966,
and wrote: "I have read, and more than once, a slow rise means a low
sunspot max. The previous Solar Cycle 24 took five years to reach a
relatively low maximum. A rapid increase can mean a high sunspot
maximum. The granddaddy of our lifetime, Solar Cycle 19 peaked in
three years!"

I did not know this.

In a subsequent message, Dan further commented:

"There was a lot of short term variation in the Solar Cycle 19
sunspot number, just like we're seeing now. From the graph the
timing of the Solar Cycle 19 peak can be defined three different
ways: the daily peak, the smoothed monthly peak or the smoothed
yearly peak, take your pick."

Another Solar Cycle 19? Many hams have dreamed of this for the past
six decades.

Dale, WB6MMQ reported that the solar images in the ARRL Letter with
a preview of our Friday bulletin show a blank Sun. I wasn't sure
what he was talking about, but now I realize this must be a stock
image (not from me!) used in the Letter.

I sent Dale links to some recent images from Spaceweather.com:

https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/20apr23/hmi1898.gif

https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/19apr23/hmi1898.gif

https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/18apr23/hmi1898.gif

https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/17apr23/hmi1898.gif

I hope this clears up the confusion.

An odd correlation between an ancient epidemic and solar activity:

https://bit.ly/3Lsqfxf

A story about a possible early Solar peak:

https://www.space.com/sun-solar-maximum-may-arrive-early

A story about possible M-class solar flares:

https://bit.ly/3KVc1n1

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for April 13 through 19, 2023 were 154, 153, 151,
155, 162, 140, and 113, with a mean of 146.9. 10.7 cm flux was
159.5, 171.3, 175.8, 177.8, 166.6, 153.2, and 147, with a mean of
164.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 7, 9, 4, 6, 13, and 12,
with a mean of 8.1. Middle latitude A index was 5, 10, 8, 4, 6, 9,
and 9, with a mean of 7.3.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (954:895/7)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP017
ARLP017 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP17
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 17 ARLP017
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA April 28, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP017
ARLP017 Propagation de K7RA

At 0134 UTC on April 27, The Australian Space Weather Forecasting
Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning:

"An equatorial coronal hole is currently elevating solar wind
speeds. Combined with the anticipated impact from a recent CME on
April 27, geomagnetic activity is expected to be at G0-G1 levels
over April 27-28, with a slight chance of an isolated period of G2."

Solar and geomagnetic indicators moved in opposite directions this
week. Average daily sunspot numbers over April 20-26 made a dramatic
drop from 146.9 to 91.4, and average daily solar flux from 164.5 to
139.4.

Average daily planetary A index more than tripled from 8.1 to 26.9,
while average middle latitude A index more than doubled from 7.3 to
15.6.

Solar wind and explosions caused all this grief.

Spaceweather.com reported that on April 21, a large magnetic
filament on the Sun exploded, hurling debris toward Earth.

Later they reported that on April 23 at 1737 UTC a CME hit Earth,
sparking a severe G4-class geomagnetic storm. Aurora was visible as
far south as southern New Mexico and Texas.

The planetary K index went as high as 8 over April 23-24.

Predicted solar flux over the next month is 135 on April 28-30, 140
on May 1-2, 135 on May 3-4, 140 on May 5-6, then 145, 150, 155, 160
and 165 on May 7-11, 170 on May 12-13, then 165, 160, 155, 150, 145
and 140 on May 14-19, 135 on May 20-21, 130 and 125 on May 22-23,
120 on May 24-25, then 125, 130 and 135 on May 26-28, 140 on May 29
through June 2, then 145, 150, 155, 160, and 165 on June 3-7.

Predicted planetary A index is 25, 16 and 12 on April 28-30, 8 on
May 1-5, 12 and 10 on May 6-7, 8 on May 8-9, then 5, 5 and 12 on May
10-12, 5 on May 13-15, 8 on May 16-17, 5 on May 18-22, then 15 and
18 on May 23-34, and 15 on May 25-27, then 12 and 10 on May 28-29, 8
on May 30-31, then 5, 5 and 12 on June 1-3, and 5 on June 4-6.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - April 27, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

"The most important event of the last seven days was the solar flare
on 21 April with a maximum at 1812 UTC (1744 - 1857 UT). It was a
long duration event (LDE), accompanied by the ejection of a cloud of
coronal plasma into space, at a location on the Sun where there is a
high probability of the cloud hitting the Earth. It is therefore not
surprising that all forecast centres agreed in predicting the
impending disturbance.

"The speed of the solar wind jumped up on 23 April at 1703 UTC,
after which a geomagnetic disturbance began to develop. It was much
stronger than expected (max K=8 and G4 instead of the expected K=6
and G1-2). Auroras were observed with two maxima - in Europe on 23
April mainly between 1900-2100 UTC and in North America on 24 April
between 0300-0400 UTC.

"Thereafter, propagation conditions deteriorated significantly,
especially on 24-25 April, with one interesting variation of the
evolution: the calming of the geomagnetic field on the morning of 25
April UTC was followed by a further development of the disturbance
with an albeit shorter but significant improvement. The return of
the critical frequencies of the F2 layer and the improvement of
shortwave propagation conditions toward the mean continued only
slowly in the following days, as intervals of increased geomagnetic
activity occurred daily. The lowest f0F2 were observed on the night
of 23-24 April. The following night was slightly better."

Rocky Riggs, W6RJK in Truckee, California wrote:

"I was not very active until recently when I was introduced to POTA.
The park I frequent the most would typically give me 40-60 contacts
in a 2 hour period.

"On Monday, the 24th, I went to the same park, and in 30+ minutes
had no contacts and couldn't hear anyone either. I later found out
that the solar storm was causing most of our radio problems. Until
then, I had never considered much about solar flares, or how the Sun
influences radio propagation. Now, finally, I'm trying to learn as
much as I can. The K7RA Solar Update in the ARRL Newsletter is
FANTASTIC, and will be my source going forward to help me learn and
understand.

"Here's my question. Is there a 'real time' place where I can go to
determine if a particular band has good propagation (I typically use
20m and 40m)?

"You know, like before I go out and get all set up and it's a 'goose
egg.'"

I replied:

"I recommend pskreporter.info, and look on the map screen for FT8
signals from your grid square and where they are heard. You don't
have to use FT8 to use this.

"You can also check for the 'country of callsign' option with your
own or any callsign. When I do this for 10 meters, this week it has
been showing no propagation from my area, but lots of 10 meter
propagation in the south and across the east coast.

"I use FT8 a lot to study propagation."

Angel Santana, WP3GW in Trujillo Alto, Puerto Rico wrote:

"Been doing a lot of FT8 these months. More DXpeditions are
including its operation. Just last week on April 16th at 1939 UTC
worked VU7W and in WARD April 18th T30UN at 0721 on 40m and 0735 on
30m, the two ATNOs."

(I think WARD refers to World Amateur Radio Day, and of course ATNO
refers to All Time New One, something I did not know until a few
years ago. -K7RA)

"But on the 20th, at 0800 UTC, saw stations on 10 meters, normally
you do not hear them on any mode at that time. Then I began to call
them and a few from Europe contacted me. Then at about 0845 UTC,
'poof' they disappeared.

"These are the things that make me say that it is because of the
'crazy prop' (la propa loca)."

Tomas Hood, NW7US has a monthly propagation column in CQ Magazine,
which is a great resource. In the March issue he writes about the
promising progress of Solar Cycle 25.

Another great resource is Chapter 19, the "Propagation of Radio
Signals" in the 2023 100th edition of the ARRL Handbook. It contains
the most comprehensive treatment of radio propagation I have ever
seen and goes on for 38 pages.

Aurora observed in China:

https://bit.ly/41KyY3w

Aurora in Iowa:

https://bit.ly/3Nlvy2S

An article explaining aurora:

https://bit.ly/3n7ROm2

A Science & Tech article about Sun science:

https://bit.ly/429Sqq9

From 2017, a NASA sunspot video:

https://www.exploratorium.edu/video/nasa-life-sunspot

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to
tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-Earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for April 20 through 26, 2023 were 97, 114, 87, 86,
88, 87, and 81, with a mean of 91.4. 10.7 cm flux was 147, 151.2,
141.2, 135.2, 133.9, 130.7, and 136.5, with a mean of 139.4.
Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 9, 7, 66, 76, 10, and 15, with
a mean of 26.9. Middle latitude A index was 5, 8, 6, 32, 39, 7, and
12, with a mean of 15.6.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (954:895/7)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP018
ARLP018 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP18
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 18 ARLP018
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA May 5, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP018
ARLP018 Propagation de K7RA

Spaceweather.com posted the following report on May 4:

"REVERSED-POLARITY SUNSPOT EXPLODES: A rare reversed-polarity
sunspot exploded today, producing a long-lasting M-class solar flare
and a CME that might hit Earth. Geomagnetic storms are possible this
weekend if/when the CME arrives."

Sunspot activity and solar flux increased over the past reporting
week, April 27 through May 3.

Average daily sunspot numbers climbed from 91.4 to 114, while
average daily solar flux grew from 139.4 to 151.5.

Average daily planetary A index dropped from 26.9 to 13.6, and
average daily middle latitude A index declined from 15.6 to 11.9.

Predicted solar flux over the next month is 162 on May 5-6, 164 on
May 7, 162 on May 8-9, 164 on May 10-11, 170 on May 12-13, then 165,
160, 155, 150, 145 and 140 on May 14-19, 135 on May 20-21, then 130
and 125 on May 22-23, 120 on May 24-25, then 125, 130 and 135 on May
26-28, 140 on May 29 through June 2, then 145, 150 and 155, 160 and
165 on June 3-7, 170 on June 8-9, then 165, 160, 155, 150, and 145
on June 10-14. .

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on May 5, then 12, 8, 5 and 5 on
May 6-9, 5 on May 10-11, 8 on May 12, 5 on May 13-22, 12 and 20 on
May 23-24, 15 on May 25-26, 8 and 12 on May 27-28, 10 on May 29-30,
then 8, 5, 12 and 10 on May 31 through June 3, 5 on June 4-6, 8 on
June 7-8, and 5 on June 9 through mid-month and beyond.

On Wednesday, May 3 Spaceweather.com posted, "INTENSIFYING SOLAR
ACTIVITY: Sunspot complex AR3293-3296 is crackling with strong
M-class solar flares--six of them today so far."

It looks like we face continued favorable HF propagation.

Recently I wrote of my bafflement at 10 meter propagation I observed
using FT8 and pskreporter.info, in which my signals were only being
reported in Florida. I now have a better understanding of this.

On May 1 from 1930-2030 UTC I saw the same thing, with reports from
2,200-2,700 miles away, which suggests a 500 mile wide skip
distance. Mexican stations also reported me, over that same distance
in a 500 mile band. So, this suggests that it isn't just Florida,
and that the same signal is stretching out into the Gulf of Mexico
and the Atlantic Ocean, but I don't see it because there are no
stations there to receive my signal.

Later I saw multi-hop reports from ZL4KYH at 7,246 miles, 5W1SA at
5,230 miles, LU8EX at 6,893 miles and LU4FTA at 6,750 miles.

Jon N0JK wrote on April 29:

"I was able to work LU9DO, LU8EX and PY2XB that afternoon. The South
American signals popped up on what was otherwise a dead band. Later
some station in Florida came in. I was running 50 watts and a 3
element Yagi portable in EM28, northeast Kansas. May 1 - D2UY worked
stations in Florida and W3LPL in Maryland on was likely Es -- TEP.

"There will likely be more of these Es -- TEP openings in early
May."

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere May 05-11, 2023 from OK1HH:

"While long-term forecasters are beginning to come to terms with the possibility that the growth in solar activity could slow this year
and the current 25th cycle may not be one of the high ones, solar
activity has begun to increase. Already last week, sunspot group
AR3288 in the southwest with an unstable delta class magnetic field
was the source of an M7 class solar flare on May 1 at 1309 UTC. But
another M7 class eruption occurred on May 3 in the newly emerged
AR3293 in the northeastern part of the solar disk.

"Interestingly, a new group of spots, AR3296 in the northwest,
violates Hale's Law, as it has the opposite magnetic polarity that
is appropriate in the current 11-year cycle (polarity should be
negative on the left and positive on the right).

"The solar wind speed and Earth's magnetic field activity have
finally begun to decrease after a long active period, and the
conditions for shortwave propagation have finally improved, although
not to the extent we had hoped."

A story from Sky & Telescope about the Sun:

https://bit.ly/3NGlMbp

Two stories about massive solar flares, one from about 400 years
ago:

https://bit.ly/427oI5w

https://bit.ly/3ASEfu1

Some nonsense about flares:

https://bit.ly/3NGD5t3

More Aurora in our future:

https://bit.ly/3AZxDKl

A story about Radio Blackout:

https://bit.ly/41bVL74

More about Aurora Australis:

https://ab.co/44qDbet

This weekend is the 10-10 CW QSO Party, on 10 meters of course:

https://www.ten-ten.org/activity/2013-07-22-20-26-48/qso-party-rules

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for April 27 through May 3, 2023 were 136, 111, 82,
105, 87, 134, and 143, with a mean of 114. 10.7 cm flux was 140.8,
149.8, 155.8, 153.5, 147.9, 156.8, and 156.2, with a mean of 151.5.
Estimated planetary A indices were 23, 19, 20, 10, 10, 9, and 4,
with a mean of 13.6. Middle latitude A index was 20, 16, 18, 8, 8,
9, and 4, with a mean of 11.9.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (954:895/7)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP020
ARLP020 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP20
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 20 ARLP020
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA May 19, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP020
ARLP020 Propagation de K7RA

This reporting week, May 11-17, average daily sunspot number was
nearly the same as last week, 118.6 compared to 119.3, only
marginally lower.

But average daily solar flux dropped from 167.8 to 143.2.

Geomagnetic indicators were quieter, both planetary and middle
latitude A index at 9.6. Last week the two numbers were 15.1 and
11.9, respectively.

What is the outlook for the next few weeks?

10.7 cm solar flux is forecast to have a peak of 165 on June 8.

The predicted numbers are 145 on May 19, 140 on May 20-21, 135 on
May 22-24, 140 on May 25-26, 145 on May 27, 155 on May 28-30, 160 on
May 31 and June 1, 155 on June 2-3, 160 on June 4-7, then 165, 160,
150, 145, and 150 on June 8-12, then 155 on June 13-17, 150 on June
18, 145 on June 19-21, 140 and 145 on June 22-23, and 155 on June
24-26 then 160 on June 27-28.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 8, 12, 15 and 5 on May 19-23, 12
on May 24-25, 15 on May 26, 10 on May 27-28, 8 on May 29, 5 on May
30 through June 1, then 16, 12, 16 and 12 on June 2-5, 8 on June
6-8, then 5 on June 9-18, 12 and 20 on June 19-20, 15 on June 21-22,
10 on June 23-24, 8 on June 25, and 5 on June 26-28.

These numbers are updated daily here:

https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/45-day-ap-forecast.txt

Thanks to reader David Moore for this:

"How 1,000 undergraduates helped solve an enduring mystery about the
Sun:

"https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/05/230509122026.htm

"For three years at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, a group of
students spent an estimated 56,000 hours analyzing the behavior of
hundreds of solar flares. Their results could help astrophysicists
understand how the Sun's corona reaches temperatures of millions of
degrees Fahrenheit."

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - May 18, 2023, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

"On May 12, we expected a CME impact from the flare on the evening
of May 9. It was indeed registered - at 0635 UTC the geomagnetic
storm began. However, it was weaker than expected, of G1 class.

"On 13 May at 1915 UTC, an unexpected CME impact followed for a
change, which again triggered another G1 class geomagnetic storm.

"On 16 May, we expected another smaller CME. The particle cloud has
been slowly approaching Earth since the magnetic filament eruption
in the southern hemisphere of the Sun on 12 May.

"The next solar flare on May 16, with a maximum at 1643 UTC, was
M9.6 class. It came from a sunspot group still hiding behind the
southeastern limb of the Sun. In fact, it may have been an X flare,
partially obscured by the solar horizon. Yet it caused the strong
Dellinger effect (shortwave fade) over North America. After the
sunspot group came out on the solar disk, we could observe it as AR
3310. It's about three times wider than Earth, and its magnetic
configuration promises more flares.

"Not only was solar flare activity quite high, but the Sun was
hurling so many CMEs into space that hardly a day went by without
one hitting Earth. Therefore, the frequency of geomagnetic storms
was also higher, followed by frequent deterioration of shortwave
propagation conditions. In summary, the 25th solar cycle continues
to evolve nicely."

Frank, VO1HP sent this from St. Johns, Newfoundland:

"On May 12 1957-2113 UTC, there was a strong 6M Es opening into mid
South America. Logged 20 stations using FT8. No CW or SSB heard.
Stations worked at VO1HP remote station: LU3CQ, CE3SX, 2SV, LI7DUE,
9AEA, 9DO, 1FAM, 8EX, CX3VB, PP5BK, LU2DPW, CX1VH, PU3AMB, CX6VM,
LU3FAP, XQ3SK, XQ3MCC, CE3VRT, 3SOC, and LU5FF.

"Antenna 4el Yagi at 35ft overlooking ocean. K3 + PR6, KPA500
KAT500. Other VO1s seen: VO1CH, VO1SIX, and VO1AW."

On April 24, Rocky Riggs, W6RJK in Truckee, California wrote:

"I was not very active until recently when I was introduced to POTA.
The park I frequent the most would typically give me 40-60 contacts
in a 2 hour period.

"On Monday, April 24th, I went to the same park, and in 30+ minutes
had no contacts and couldn't hear anyone either. I later found out
that the solar storm was causing most of our radio problems. Until
then, I had never considered much about solar flares, or how the Sun
influences radio propagation. Now, finally, I'm trying to learn as
much as I can. The K7RA Solar Update in the ARRL Newsletter is
FANTASTIC and will be my source going forward to help me learn and
understand.

"Here's my question. Is there a 'real time' place where I can go to
determine if a particular band has good propagation (I typically use
20m and 40m)?

"You know, like before I go out and get all set up and it's a 'goose
egg.'"

As I first reported in Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP017, I told
him that a very useful tool (to use) is to check real time
geomagnetic indices with this:

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index

Nice quiet conditions show a planetary A index at 1 or 2, unsettled
conditions at 3, then above 3 conditions are disturbed. The scale is logarithmic, so each point in either direction is important.

Another approach is to use pskreporter at https://www.pskreporter.info/pskmap.html which is handy if you live
in a grid square that has many active hams, or a nearby grid that is
more populated.

You can check FT8 activity on any band. There is also a "Country of
Callsign" selection so you can check activity across your nation of
choice. Recently when I have raised nobody on 10 meter FT8 this
option showed no activity here in the Pacific Northwest but plenty
of 10 meter activity in the southeast United States.

Here is a new video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/xSQYjH6D_YA

NASA sunspot picture:

https://bit.ly/458DrPw

A video of a recent eruption:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rm7M5pqjCgY

Here are articles about Radio Blackout:

https://bit.ly/434c5bw

https://bit.ly/3pWId2e

https://bit.ly/45hXTxh

https://bit.ly/3MEkCwa

NASA warning of a Solar Storm threat:

https://bit.ly/3pSK4p2

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for May 11 through 17, 2023 were 152, 134, 120, 109,
103, 106, and 106, with a mean of 118.6. 10.7 cm flux was 163.4,
149.1, 143.8, 139.7, 134.5, 134.3, and 137.9, with a mean of 143.2.
Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 19, 13, 8, 6, 8, and 4, with a
mean of 9.6. Middle latitude A index was 10, 15, 12, 9, 6, 10, and
5, with a mean of 9.6.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (954:895/7)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP021
ARLP021 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP21
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 21 ARLP021
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA May 26, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP021
ARLP021 Propagation de K7RA

Both average daily sunspot numbers and solar flux increased this
week. Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 118.6 to 133.4, while
average solar flux went from 143.2 to 161.2.

Geomagnetic indicators were more active. Average daily planetary A
index went from 9.6 to 17.1, while average middle latitude A index
rose from 9.6 to 14.4.

Predicted solar flux is 150 on May 26, 155 on May 27 and 28, then
150, 145, 140 and 135 on May 29 through June 1, 155 on June 2 to 4,
then 160, 165, 160, 155, and 150 on June 5 to 9, 145 on June 10 and
11, 150 on June 12, 155 on June 13 and 14, 160 on June 15, 165 on
June 16 and 17, then 160, 155 and 150 on June 18 to 20, 155 on June
21 and 22, then 160, 165 and 160 on June 23 to 25, 155 on June 26
and 27, 150 on June 28, and 155 on June 29 to July 1, then 160, 165
and 160 on July 2 to 4.

Predicted planetary A index is 15, 8, 5, 12 and 10 on May 26 to 30,
5 on May 31 through June 1, then 16, 8, 10 and 8 on June 2 to 5, 5
on June 6 to 15, then 12, 10, 5, 18, 22, 15 and 10 on June 16 to 22,
5 on June 23 to 28, then 16, 8, 10 and 8 on June 29 through July 2,
and 5 through the first week of July.

"Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - May 25, 2023

We've seen another seven days of turbulent developments on the Sun
and around the Earth. The large, seen even without binoculars
(e.g., eclipse glasses) visible sunspot group AR3310 in the southern
hemisphere was the source of the strongest flare on May 16 with an
X-ray event maximum of M9.6.

Another group AR3311 in the north, due to its unstable magnetic
field configuration "beta-gamma-delta", produced almost all the
other flares. The stronger ones were the cause of Dellinger events
(SWF = Shortwave fadeout, in the case of M9.6 it was registered in
the whole shortwave range in the region where the Sun was high).
Moreover, the eruptions, combined with sporadic E layer, often
significantly affected the propagation in the lower shortwave bands
by deep and irregular fadeouts.

SOHO recorded a rare conjunction on May 21, when a filament near the
Sun's north pole was ejected as a CME in direction to the Pleiades,
Seven Sisters star cluster. Coronagraph on SOHO has been operating
since 1995 and was the first to operate in real time. No one had
ever seen anything like it before.

Since May 24, we observed a new and rapidly growing group of spots,
AR3315, in which we can expect more major solar flares as time goes
on. So the turbulent evolution with changing and often worsening
shortwave propagation conditions continues.

F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH"

K7EG wrote:

"I have been in the DX hobby since 1950 and seem to see an
increasing, alarming recent trend in solar and geomagnetic activity
impacting trends in radio disturbances. Tell me I am wrong and it's
just a 'blip' but solar activity seems beyond the norm and
worsening."

I replied that with greater solar activity we should expect more
flares, solar wind, and disturbances. I think the disturbances are
normal and expected with the rising solar cycle.

When I suspect conditions are disturbed, this is where I check to
see what is happening in real time:

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index

Beautiful aurora: https://tinyurl.com/2zxdmpu6

Sunspot images: https://tinyurl.com/muaakxn9

https://www.popsci.com/science/sun-images-powerful-solar-telescope/

https://bit.ly/3MCqAwm

Thanks to NO6ED for this story about an undersea volcano disrupting
the ionosphere. https://bit.ly/428OAwM

This weekend is the CQ World Wide WPX CW Contest. https://www.cqwpx.com/rules.htm

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for May 18 through 24, 2023 were 121, 155, 138, 140,
97, 130, and 153, with a mean of 133.4. 10.7 cm flux was 150.6,
164.6, 169.6, 163.4, 161.5, 154.9, and 164.1, with a mean of 161.2.
Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 9, 35, 28, 21, 12, and 12,
with a mean of 17.1. Middle latitude A index was 8, 10, 26, 19, 17,
11, and 10, with a mean of 14.4.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (954:895/7)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP022
ARLP022 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP22
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 22 ARLP022
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA June 2, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP022
ARLP022 Propagation de K7RA

Average daily solar flux values dropped over the past week, but
sunspot numbers were nearly the same, comparing May 25 to 31 to the
previous week.

Average daily solar flux declined from 161.2 to 155.3. Geomagnetic
indicators were quieter, with average daily planetary A index
declining from 17.1 to 7.3, and middle latitude numbers from 14.4 to
7.9.

Predicted solar flux is 160 on June 2, 155 on June 3-4, 150 on June
5-8, 130 on June 9-11, then 135, 140, 143, 145, and 150 on June
12-16, 155 on June 17-20, 150 on June 21-25, then 145, 140 and 135
on June 26-28 and 130 on June 29 to July 8.

Predicted planetary A index is 15, 12, 10 and 8 on June 2-5, 5 on
June 6-17, then 22, 15, 12 and 10 on June 18-21, 5 on June 22-24, 12
and 10 on June 25-26, then 5 on June 27-28, then 15, 12, 15, 10 and
8 on June 29 through July 3, then 5 on July 4 through the middle of
the month.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - June 1, 2023 from OK1HH.

"The Sun still surprises us, it has been in the habit for billions
of years, but we only observe it for a few hundred years. So, we
have a right to be surprised by what it is doing and what we can
observe with instruments on satellites and powerful solar telescopes
on Earth, including the largest four-metre one on the island of Maui
in Hawaii, which can see the very fine structures of sunspot nuclei.

"What's more, we're seeing spots on the far side of the Sun that are
so big, they affect the vibration of the whole Sun. But we can only
see their structure and predict possible flares after they appear on
the eastern limb of the solar disk, which was not at all the case
with the current most active AR3315, which did not appear there. It
emerged later, thereafter began to grow rapidly.

"Conversely, the source of the next big flare was hidden behind the southeastern limb, and we only saw the prominence above it.

"Meanwhile, the larger groups of sunspots have mostly moved to the
western half of the solar disk. A large coronal hole in the southern
hemisphere now crosses the central meridian. This increases the
likelihood of geomagnetic disturbances starting on June 2."

Mike, AK7ML wrote:

"I recall in a movie about Pearl Harbor that they could not reach
Hawaii from stateside on HF and then they sent the message by cable
telegraph in routine status, so Pearl was not informed of the attack
in time.

"For years I have been able to work Australia in the morning and now
it is Indonesia that is workable instead!"

A story about a big sunspot:

https://www.fox9.com/news/giant-sunspot-ar3310-visible-earth

I've added information from this resource to the text appearing at
the bottom of every propagation forecast bulletin (this resource
comes from September 2002 QST):

https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf

I was sad to learn that old friend Chip Margelli, K7JA became a
Silent Key on May 25. Chip was from the Seattle area, and first came
to my attention when he became proficient in the Japanese language
during high school, then specialized in running JA stations at the
old Rush Drake, W7RM contest station on Foulweather Bluff in Puget
Sound. At one time he may have been the most famous American ham in
Japan, or so I heard at the time.

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for May 25 through 31, 2023 were 121, 127, 125, 119,
153, 144, and 147, with a mean of 133.7. 10.7 cm flux was 152.1,
149, 156.9, 151.3, 154.4, 162, and 161.4, with a mean of 155.3.
Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 6, 4, 11, 4, 5, and 10, with
a mean of 7.3. Middle latitude A index was 11, 6, 5, 11, 5, 6, and
11, with a mean of 7.9.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (954:895/7)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP023
ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP23
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 23 ARLP023
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA June 9, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP023
ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA

Solar activity was up this week, with the average daily sunspot
number increasing from 133.7 to 139, and average daily solar flux
from 155.3 to 166.8.

Average daily planetary A index stayed the same at 7.3, and average
middle latitude A index went from 7.9 to 8.6.

Predicted solar flux doesn't show any improvement, with peaks at 170
on June 23-25 and July 20-21.

The forecast shows solar flux at 168, 163, 157, 160, 157, 153, 160
and 150 on June 9-16, 155 on June 17-20, then 160 and 165 on June
21-22, 170 on June 23-25, then 168, 165 and 162 on June 26-28, 160
on June 29 through July 4, then 155, 150 and 145 on July 5-7, then
140, 135, 140, 143, 145 and 150 on July 8-13, and 155 on July 14-17.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5, 10 and 8 on June 9-12, 5 on
June 13-17, then 22, 15, 12 and 10 on June 18-21, 5 on June 22-26,
then 10, 12, 5 and 5 on June 27-30, then 8, 12 and 8 on July 1-3,
and 5 on July 4-7, then 10, 12 and 8 on July 8-10, and 5 on July
11-14, then 22. 15. 12 and 10 on July 15-18.

In some previous bulletins I was reporting 10 meter propagation
observed with FT8 only into Florida from my QTH in Seattle, and also
into Mexico at a similar distance.

Recently on 10 meters I am seeing propagation into VK/ZL, and in
North America mostly into Southern California, Nevada, Utah and
Arizona. Some seasonal variation, I suppose.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - June 8, 2023 from OK1HH:

"In the last seven days, solar activity has remained at a slightly
elevated level, with daily C-class flares and a few M-class flares.
This, together with the decrease in geomagnetic activity, has
resulted in a gradual increase in the daily maximum of the highest
usable frequencies of the F2 ionospheric layer. At the same time,
however, the attenuation in the lower ionospheric layers grew, which
manifested as earlier morning closures and later evening openings of
the longer shortwave bands.

"Particle clouds from CMEs during solar flares mostly did not reach
Earth - with one exception: on 7 June at 2224 UTC, the solar wind
speed jumped from 340 to 380 km/s. For a short time, the Earth's
magnetic field activity increased, usually only to K=3.

"The situation was further complicated by the sporadic-E layer,
whose season is approaching its peak.

"Inhomogeneities (non-uniformities) in the sporadic-E layer appeared
quite frequently and extended reflections were observed in the
ionograms.

"As a consequence, the scattering of electromagnetic waves was as
well manifested as attenuation. We are talking about the ionosphere
of the northern hemisphere of the Earth. Here we will wait for the
improvement when Summer ends there - which fortunately will be much
earlier than Summer ends in the troposphere."

While searching for something else, I ran across this article from
the RSGB:

http://bit.ly/45TjWuA

Mike, W9NY wrote:

"Having lived through multiple sunspot cycles since I was first
licensed in 1955, I cannot believe that 10 meters is nearly dead,
and 15 meters is minimally open. Nothing on 6 meters either.

"I discussed this with my cousin who is an astrophysicist at Oxford
who basically said, 'there are a lot of factors.' I'm just wondering
what our ham radio gurus think. I would have expected phenomenal
propagation but there is very little. Might this be related to
atomic/chemical changes in the Earth's ionosphere?"

I offered the WA4TTK Solar Data Plotting Utility as a record of
sunspot and solar flux data going back to 1989.

It can be updated weekly with a plain text file of the latest
propagation bulletin.

The data file can then be imported to any spreadsheet program for
analysis and custom graphing.

http://www.craigcentral.com/sol.asp

A new video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/-ElKuld9xW8

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for June 1 through 7, 2023 were 143, 147, 112, 110,
151, 133, and 177, with a mean of 139. 10.7 cm flux was 163.9,
162.3, 164.6, 168.3, 169.2, 171.8, and 167.2, with a mean of 166.8.
Estimated planetary A indices were 13, 5, 5, 11, 5, 7, and 5, with a
mean of 7.3. Middle latitude A index was 14, 8, 5, 11, 6, 10, and 6,
with a mean of 8.6.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (954:895/7)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP024
ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP24
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 24 ARLP024
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA June 16, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP024
ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA

At 2256 UTC on June 16 the Australian Space Weather Forecast Centre
issued a geomagnetic warning: "The solar wind speed on UT day 15-Jun
has increased as the Earth entered a coronal hole wind stream after
15/0545UT. Increased geomagnetic activity is expected for 16-Jun
with isolated periods of G1-Minor level activity."

Earlier in the day I checked the NOAA planetary K index page, and it
showed a jump from K index of about 1.8 at 1200 UTC to about 4.1 at
1500 and again at 1800 UTC, then about 4.5 at 2100 UTC and 5.5 at
0000 UTC on June 16. At 0300 UTC it was down a bit to 5.

See, https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index .

Solar activity declined this week, with average daily sunspot
numbers dropping from 139 to 122, while average daily solar flux
decreased from 166.8 to 154.8. This compares the current reporting
week of June 8-14 against the previous seven days.

Average daily planetary A index decreased from 7.3 to 5.7, and
average daily middle latitude A index from 8.6 to 6.7.

On June 14 Spaceweather.com reported two new sunspot groups emerging
across the Sun's southeastern horizon.

Forecasters Cundiff and Trost of the U.S. Air Force 557th Weather
Wing predict solar flux at 155 on June 16-17, 160 on June 18-19,
then 155, 160 and 165 on June 20-22, 170 on June 23-25, then 168,
165 and 162 on June 26-28, 160 on June 29 through July 4, 165 on
July 5, 170 on July 6-8, then 155, 157, 153 and 160 on July 9-12,
150 on July 13-14, 155 on July 15-17, then 160 and 165 on July
18-19, and 170 on July 20-22.

Predicted planetary A index is 18, 12 and 8 on June 16-18, 5 on June
19-20, 8 on June 21-22, 5 on June 23-26, 12 on June 27-28, 5 on June
29-30, then 12 and 8 on July 1-2, 5 on July 3-7, 12 on July 8-10,
then 5, 5, and 12 on July 11-13, and 10 on July 14-15, and 5 on July
16-23.

These predictions look great for ARRL Field Day, which is June
24-25. Why? Solar flux peaks at 170 on June 23-25, and the predicted
planetary A index is a nice quiet 5 on June 22-26. Next week we will
present an updated forecast just prior to Field Day weekend.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere June 16 - June 22, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

"The first half of June was quieter than May, both on the Sun and in
the Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere.

"However, helioseismic maps of the far side of the Sun showed a
number of large active regions, probably sunspots. We therefore
expected an increase in activity. But that's not likely to happen
until a week from now.

"Even so, there were some rather unexpected eruptions of moderate
magnitude during the local midday, which triggered a SWF (Shortwave
Fading) that could have broken the QSO in the longer half of the
shortwave band.

"Meanwhile, we observed a coronal hole in the solar equator region
that crossed the central meridian on June 12.

"Associated with it is the co-rotating interaction region (CIR),
which are the transition zones between the slow and fast solar wind
streams. Since the accumulation of solar plasma in the solar wind
results in structures that are similar to the arrival of a CME, we
expected a geomagnetic storm on the evening of 15 June UTC. The
estimate was quite accurate - the disturbance began at 1500 UTC.

"We can expect the geomagnetic field to be active for a few more
days, including smaller storms."

K6LMN wrote:

"It was great on 6m last weekend. I was only on SSB on 6m, but I
understand it was open all over on FT8. I believe the openings were
caused by summer E-skip, not F2. I worked many, many stations in
your grid square. Roger K6LMN in DM04sb Los Angeles."

He sent this to N0JK:

"We on the West Coast were finally treated to some decent E-skip on
6 meters SSB and CW (do not know about FT8). The June VHF Contest
was just great Saturday and Sunday afternoons into early evening,
Pacific Daylight time. Before this contest the band out here has
been fairly quiet.

"So briefly, I was K6LMN/Limited Rover in DM03 DM04 all around LA.
I had a tight schedule with many social engagements plus two
funerals to attend. I could not get too serious with heavy artillery
or going to 5,000+ ft. mountaintops. For 6m I simply used my Larsen
5 ft. magmount on the car roof. The rig was my old IC-706IIG with
only 90 watts SSB. I was also on 2m, 1-1/4m, and 70 cm.

"Most DX contacts were on both days up to Oregon, Washington, Idaho,
Montana, BC, and Alberta. But the surprise was Sunday early evening.
Best 2 way DX was N9XG in EN60 (Indiana) and K9CT in EN50 (Illinois)
with 1 hour to go before contest close. They were like 5 by 5 on
peaks on SSB. I am sure all this big DX was double hop summer
E-skip.

"A surprise was VA6AN way up in Canada popping in/out on SSB with
peaks up to 5 by 5 Sunday eve about 6:30 pm local time. However, the
QRM was horrible (my whip is omnidirectional) so he did not work me.

"I worked K7YO up in CN85 (his alternate QTH) and he said he was
getting into Florida on SSB or CW or FT8 on 6M. Maybe triple hop
E-skip?

"I am unhappy that us West Coasters are not getting any F2 so far on
6m in Solar Cycle 25. I am 85 years old, licensed in 1955 and was
lucky to enjoy the all-time best F2 openings on 10m and 6m (AM) back
in the Golden Days in 1956-1958 in Solar Cycle 19. Incredible!"

N0JK sent a note on June 12 that he worked IK5YJY on 6 meter FT8. He
also wrote: "6M Es all weekend and 2M Es Sunday eve for the ARRL VHF
contest. By the way, you had a station (W9NY) comment about poor
conditions on 6M in last week's bulletin. Last weekend was awesome.
I made 3 JA contacts with 10w and a 3 el yagi from KS.

"Today A71VV (Qatar) was in to Northeast KS around 1400z."

Check out the images on the A71VV page on QRZ.com.

Scotty, W7PSK sent a note on June 12 listing countries worked on 6
meter FT8: Balearic Islands, France, Spain, England and Canada.

An image of the International Space Station over a sunspot:

https://bit.ly/3NgsByW

A video too:

https://bit.ly/43Em3B1

A study of the Sun's coldest region:

https://bit.ly/3X6ErQu

More sunspots.

https://bit.ly/3Nt5Ys6

Another breathless warning from South Asia about flares:

https://bit.ly/42Rt2FG

This weekend is the 64th annual CW weekend of the All Asian DX
Contest. See the JARL web site for rules:

https://bit.ly/43GPrXq

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins

Sunspot numbers for June 8 through 14, 2023 were 149, 152, 116, 116,
116, 98, and 107, with a mean of 122. 10.7 cm flux was 168.5, 164.3,
161.2, 153.8, 146.1, 146.3, and 143.5, with a mean of 154.8.
Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 4, 5, 9, 6, 6, and 5, with a
mean of 5.7. Middle latitude A index was 6, 6, 4, 10, 8, 8, and 5,
with a mean of 6.7.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (954:895/7)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP025
ARLP025 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP25
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 25 ARLP025
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA June 23, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP025
ARLP025 Propagation de K7RA

Sunspot numbers and solar flux rose this week. There were two new
sunspot groups on June 15, another on June 17 and one more on June
18, three more on June 19, two more on June 20 and another on June
21.

Average daily sunspot number increased from 122 to 143, and average
daily solar flux rose from 154.8 to 165.4.

Average daily planetary A index jumped from 5.7 to 15.4, while the
middle latitude numbers increased from 6.7 to 13.1.

Predicted solar flux is 180 on June 23-24, 185 on June 25-27, 180 on
June 28, 175 on June 29 through July 1, 180 on July 2-3, 175 on July
4-5, 170 on July 6-10, then 165 on July 11, 160 on July 12-13, 165
on July 14-15, 160 and 155 on July 16-17, 160 on July 18-19, 165 on
July 20-24, 170 on July 25, 175 on July 26-28, and 180 on July
29-30.

Predicted planetary A index is 14, 10 and 8 on June 23-25, then 5,
5, and 12 on June 26-28, then 5, 5, and 12 again on June 29 through
July 1, 8 on July 2, 5 on July 3-7, 12 on July 8, 5 on July 9-11,
then a dramatic increase to 20 and 30 on July 12-13, 8 on July
14-15, and 12 on July 16-17, 10 on July 18, 5 on July 19-23, 12 on
July 24-25, 5 on July 26-27, 12 and 8 on July 28-29, and 5 on July
30 through August 3.

These predictions are from forecasters Liming and Dethlefsen of the
US Air Force 557th Weather Wing at Offutt AFB.

See https://bit.ly/3qRNJnr

So, what does this forecast show for ARRL Field Day, which is this
weekend?

Geomagnetic numbers are a bit more unsettled than what was shown in
last week's bulletin, which had an A index of 5 for Friday through
Sunday. The latest shows 14, 10 and 8. Predicted solar flux looks
excellent, at 180, 180 and 185.

Of course, Field Day does not begin until Saturday, but here we also
include data for the day prior.

X1.1 solar flare:

https://bit.ly/3CI0OCA

Another report from South Asia regarding solar flares as some sort
of existential threat. Don't worry. Nothing terrifying about what
they report, but there is a nice description of what the SOHO
observatory does.

https://bit.ly/444VhSk

https://soho.nascom.nasa.gov

Reader David Moore shared this video:

https://www.space.com/earth-sunlight-dance-solstice-video

Don't know why, but no weekly report from OK1HH this time around.

On Thursday I attended an online event, the "Space Weather
Enterprise Forum," thanks to a tip from K6PFA.

Most of the sessions concerned threats from solar flares, but there
was great commentary from Bill Murtaugh of NOAA's Space Weather
Prediction Center.

He noted that the current solar cycle should peak in summer 2024
instead of 2025 and will peak much stronger than the consensus
forecast from earlier in the cycle. He also noted that increased
flare activity always occurs in the years following a sunspot cycle
peak.

John Dudley, Managing Director of Flight Operations at American
Airlines gave an interesting presentation about how space weather
affects routing of international flights.

He mentioned their expert on space weather at the airline, and I
looked him up. Yes, a ham, KC1ENP. Could not find an email address
for him, so I sent a QSL card to make contact.

Thanks to https://spaceweather.com/ for this fascinating article about
setting up a personal space weather station. It is under the
heading, "A New Way To Detect Solar Flares":

https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/1403/2023/

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins

Sunspot numbers for June 15 through 21, 2023 were 112, 120, 110,
133, 181, 155, and 190, with a mean of 143. 10.7 cm flux was 153.1,
157.2, 158.1, 164.1, 168.8, 180.1, and 176.4, with a mean of 165.4.
Estimated planetary A indices were 24, 38, 8, 10, 10, 10, and 8,
with a mean of 15.4. Middle latitude A index was 17, 24, 8, 12, 9,
13, and 9, with a mean of 13.1.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (954:895/7)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP026
ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP26
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 26 ARLP026
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA June 30, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP026
ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

Space Weather News sent this alert on June 29:

"BIG SUNSPOT ALERT: One of the biggest sunspots in years is directly
facing Earth. AR3354 is 10 times wider than Earth and about 1/3rd
the size of the historical Carrington sunspot. It's so big,
observers in Europe and North America are seeing it naked eye
through the smoke of Canadian wildfires. Earth-directed flares are
likely in the days ahead."

See https://spaceweather.com/ for continuing coverage.

Conditions were favorable over the Field Day weekend, with the
exception of a brief period when the planetary K index rose to 5 on
Saturday night. This is mentioned in the commentary by OK1HH which
follows.

There were five new sunspot groups on June 23, two more on June 24,
another on June 26 and another on June 27.

Average daily sunspot numbers were up, and solar flux was down.

Average daily sunspot number rose from 143 to 170, and average daily
solar flux declined slightly from 165.4 to 160.3.

This is unexpected, because we normally see these values track
together.

Predicted solar flux is 150 on June 30 through July 5, 155 on July
6, 135 on July 7-8, then 145, 155, 160, 165 and 170 on July 9-13,
175 on July 14-18, 170 on July 19-21, then 160, 150, 145, 145, 140
and 135 on July 22-27, then 130 on July 28 through August 1, 135 on
August 2-4, then 145, 155, and 165 on August 5-7. Flux values may
continue to rise to a peak of 175 before mid-August.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 15 and 10 on June 30 through July
2, 5 on July 3-7, 12 and 8 on July 8-9, 5 on July 10-11, then a
stormy 20 and 30 on July 12-13, 8 on July 14-23, 12 on July 24-25, 8
on July 26-27, 12 on July 28-29, 8 on July 30, 5 on July 31 through
August 3, 12 and 8 on August 4-5, 5 on August 6-7, then 20 and 30
again on August 8-9. Note that recurring stormy conditions are
predicted at one solar rotation, which is about 27.5 days, following
the July 12-13 prediction.

The above predictions are from forecasters Thompson and Kiser at the
USAF space weather group.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere June 30 to July 06, 2023 from F.K. Janda OK1HH.

"In the solar X-ray field during June we could observe the most
significant solar flare so far: X1 in the active region AR3341. It
happened on June 20 at 1709 UTC near the southeastern limb of the
solar disk. In the region where the Sun was high, it caused the
Dellinger Effect, https://bit.ly/3NA61kT .

"The same sunspot group was also the source of the M4.8 flare two
days later. It ejected a CME, but not toward Earth.

"Nevertheless, its passage close to Earth probably caused an
increase in geomagnetic activity on the evening of 24 June.
Theoretically, it could also have been a CME from the X1 eruption of
20 June.

"On June 26, we were surprised by sunspot group AR3354 just above
the solar equator and east of the central meridian. It did not exist
the day prior. Over the next two days its area grew to ten times the
size of the Earth, making it easily observable by the naked eye.

"Significantly, its magnetic configuration changed to
beta-gamma-delta, which is enough energy for powerful solar flares.

"The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled so far.

"AR3354 will be pointed directly toward Earth in the next few days,
so it looks like the next disturbance could begin on July 1. And of
course, a possible large flare could cause a Dellinger Effect
throughout the whole HF spectrum."

Pat, W5THT wrote:

"I have been an active ham since 1956 and on the Mississippi coast
since 1971. This year has strengthened my belief in an old
observation.

"There is/was a dome of high pressure that moved from over Texas to
now over me. Before it moved east, I was able to take part in the 6
meter propagation to Europe.

"Since it moved over me, the DX Maps page shows a gap in the DX
propagation from northern Florida to central Louisiana. This is not
the first time I have seen it happen, but the new generation of TV
weather persons presented a picture of the dome of high pressure
that coincided with my propagation observations. Suspicions
confirmed?

"Years ago, on 2 meters I noticed that propagation followed weather
fronts up the east coast. Thanks for reading this and perhaps
someone younger than me has already done the research."

Jon Jones, N0JK wrote:

"Wow -- a surprise opening on 6 meter FT8 to Brazil June 25!

"A CME impact at 1900 UTC may have boosted the TEP MUF Sunday
afternoon. That and some help with sporadic-E -- opening to Brazil
on 6 meters from North America during the summer.

"Had been out with our dog. Saw WQ0P PSK flags for PY2XB. Turned on
radio at home with dipole. PY2XB was loud. Really loud. Also copied
PY5CC. He spotted me as well, but no QSO. PY2XB in for almost half
an hour. Like a pipeline. Saw him work a few 5s and 0s. KC0CF worked
CE2SV. With higher solar activity, the TEP zone still works even in
our summer. This mode works for D2UY (Angola), 3B9FR (Rodrigues
Island in Indian Ocean), and ZL."

An article on Solar Cycle 25 peak and nice images:

https://bit.ly/3ps6iOI

Understanding Space Weather: A Glossary of Terms:

https://bit.ly/3XuimeQ

"Astro Bob" on that big sunspot:

https://bit.ly/46rC3YU

Frequent contributor David Moore shared this fascinating article
comparing the current big sunspot with the one that launched the
infamous Carrington Event 164 years ago.

https://bit.ly/3CUGZYC

Another Solar Cycle article:

https://bit.ly/3XvIk1y

Yet another Carrington Event article:

https://bit.ly/3XuSe3o

Article about Solar max:

https://bit.ly/44jM5tP

A Houston Chronicle article on solar max:

https://bit.ly/445vtWf

Flares and how they are measured:

https://bit.ly/3prvtRs

A video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, from last week:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sfXz9nk6NDs

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins

Sunspot numbers for June 22 through 28, 2023 were 176, 194, 200,
180, 158, 141, and 141, with a mean of 170. 10.7 cm flux was 173.2,
169.7, 160.8, 154.8, 157.7, 151.2, and 154.9, with a mean of 160.3.
Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 9, 16, 15, 11, 8, and 8, with
a mean of 10.7. Middle latitude A index was 8, 9, 16, 10, 11, 7, and
8, with a mean of 9.9.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (954:895/7)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP027
ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP27
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 27 ARLP027
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA July 7, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP027
ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA

The average daily sunspot number for June, 2023 was the highest in
21 years, according to Spaceweather.com.

From a July 3 email alert from Spaceweather.com:

"SUNSPOT COUNTS HIT A 21-YEAR HIGH: It's official: The average
sunspot number in June 2023 hit a 21-year high. Solar Cycle 25 has
shot past its predecessor, Solar Cycle 24, and may be on pace to
rival some of the stronger cycles of the 20th century."

Could we see another Cycle 19, the biggest in recorded history, even
back before the birth of radio?

Not too long ago, we heard that this cycle should peak in summer
2025. Later that was revised to 2024. Now I am seeing occasional
references to a cycle peak at the end of this year.

From my own records, average daily sunspot numbers for April through
June 2023 were 93.7, 125.8 and 143.9, a nice upward trend.

Some popular news outlets seem confused by the difference between
sunspot number and number of sunspots, and have quoted another
higher average.

Here is the difference. If they are just counting the total number
of sunspots for the month, this is far different from average daily
sunspot numbers. The sunspot number is somewhat subjective, but it
gets ten points for each sunspot group, and one point for each
sunspot in those groups.

But I stand by my numbers. They are all from NOAA and appear at the
end of each bulletin.

But they may be referencing International Sunspot Number, which may
be different from the SESC numbers from NOAA.

Here is an example of confusing sunspot numbers with number of
sunspots: https://bit.ly/3NCQCAl

This one is also confusing, saying there were 163.4 sunspots in
June. https://bit.ly/3PMu6Ym

But what does this mean? It could be either 163 or 164 sunspots,
but not a fractional number, unless it expresses an average. The
minimum sunspot number is 11. This would be one sunspot group
containing one spot. They are always whole, not fractional
integers.

There was one new sunspot region (group) on June 30, three more on
July 1, one more on July 2, another on July 4, and one more on July
5.

Sunspot and solar flux data again this week did not track together.
Average daily sunspot number declined from 170 to 126.1, while
average daily solar flux rose slightly from 160.3 to 164.5.

Geomagnetic indicators were lower, with average daily planetary A
index declining from 10.7 to 7.3, and middle latitude averages from
9.9 to 8.

Predicted solar flux is 155 on July 7, 150 on July 8 to 10, then 155
on July 11, 160 on July 12 to 13, 175 on July 14 to 18, 170 on July
19 to 21, 160 on July 22 and 23, 155 on July 24 and 25, 160 on July
26 and 27, 165 on July 28 and 29, then 170, 170 and 165 on July 30
through August 1, 155 on August 2 to 6, then 160, 165 and 170 on
August 7 to 9, and 175 on August 10 to 14.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 12 and 8 on July 7 to 9, 5 on July
10 and 11, then 20 and 30 on July 12 and 13, 8 on July 14 to 22, 5
on July 23 to 30, 8 on July 31 through August 1, then 5 on August 2
to 4, 12 and 8 on August 5 and 6, then 5, 20 and 30 on August 7 to
9, and 8 on August 10 to 18.

Note those big numbers are about one solar rotation apart, which is
about 27.5 days.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere for July 6, 2023 from F. K. Janda, OK1HH.

When the current 25th solar cycle began in December 2019, solar
astronomers thought it would be a weak cycle similar to its
immediate predecessor, solar cycle 24. But now we have a twenty-one
year peak. And we expect a continued increase for about two more
years.

The misfortune is that ongoing global changes are reducing the
ionization rate of the ionosphere. Yet the current conditions for
shortwave or decameter wave propagation do not match the amount of
solar activity - they are worse.

But that's not all. Not only is solar cycle 25 likely to rival some
of the more powerful cycles of the 20th century, but we're likely to
see even more powerful solar flares and magnetic storms. History
repeats itself cyclically, and we need only think of the great
Halloween storm of 2003, including the strongest solar flare ever
recorded in X-ray (X45).

The giant sunspot group AR3354 (only about four times smaller than
the giant sunspot group of early September 1859) made its last
appearance on July 2 with an X-class flare. Two days later it
eclipsed.

We won't lose the source of the stronger flares, however - the
growing AR3359, with its Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration, crossed
the central meridian toward active western longitudes on July 6 and
will continue to grow. With its predicted higher activity, we could
see an increase in the Earth's magnetic field activity as early as
the middle of next week.

Tamitha Skov, from July 1. https://youtu.be/HR8mm30oxOQ

Blackout http://bit.ly/46tTRT8 https://bit.ly/3rhbjdz

Stormy weekend? https://bit.ly/3pDrT6R

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins

Sunspot numbers for June 29 through July 5, 2023 were 112, 187, 119,
126, 117, 121, and 101, with a mean of 126.1. 10.7 cm flux was
162.2, 158.6, 165.5, 170.2, 173.2, 167.2, and 154.6, with a mean of
164.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 17, 8, 5, 5, 5, 4, and 7,
with a mean of 7.3. Middle latitude A index was 13, 8, 6, 8, 7, 5,
and 9, with a mean of 8.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (954:895/7)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP028
ARLP028 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP28
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 28 ARLP028
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA July 14, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP028
ARLP028 Propagation de K7RA

"GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 0713UT/13 JULY 2023 BY
THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

A glancing CME impact is expected late on 13-July and another CME
impact is expected early on 15-July. These impacts present the
possibility of geomagnetic storm activity over 13-15 July."

We saw a welcome rise in solar activity this reporting week, July
6-12.

Referencing the previous seven days, average daily sunspot numbers
rose from 126.1 to 181.9, while average daily solar flux increased
from 164.5 to 179.4. On July 13 the solar flux was 202.9, well above
the average for the previous seven days.

Geomagnetic indicators did not change much, average planetary A
index going from 7.3 to 8.6 and average daily middle latitude A
index from 8 to 8.1.

The most active day was July 7 when University of Alaska's college A
index was 40. The middle latitude A index on that day was only 11.
The college A index is from a magnetometer in Fairbanks.

What is the outlook for the next month?

Predicted solar flux looks great over the next few days, at 200,
202, 198, 200, and 204 on July 14-18, 202 on July 19-21, 160 on July
22-23, 155 on July 24-25, 160 on July 26-27, 165 on July 28-29, 170
on July 30-31, 165 on August 1-4, 170 on August 5, 175 on August
6-7, 170 on August 8, then 165 on August 9-11, 170 on August 12, 175
on August 13-14, 170 on August 15-17, and 160 on August 18-19.

Predicted planetary A index is 10 on July 14, 5 on July 15 through
August 2, then 10, 8 and 5 on August 3-5, then 8, 8, 5, 8 and 8 on
August 6-10, 5 on August 11 through the end of the month.

On July 12, Spaceweather.com reported:

"A new hyperactive sunspot is producing M-class solar flares every
few hours. This is causing shortwave radio blackouts around all
longitudes of our planet. If current trends continue, an X-flare
could be in the offing."

See Spaceweather.com for updates.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere July 14-20, 2023 from OK1HH.

"Over the past week, we were surprised by two large groups of spots
that appeared on the eastern limb of the solar disk.

The first of these, AR3363, emerged in the southeast. Although it
remained large, there was nothing significant going on. Its opposite
was AR 3372 a few days later, which produced moderate-sized flares
almost daily.

In both cases, helioseismic echoes from the sun's far side suggested
that it may be the leading edge of a large active region.

But there was no indication that these would be areas with a
diametrically different type of activity.

The images of the two groups of spots were large enough to be
observed by the Mars rover Perseverance. Because of Mars' position,
it saw them a few days earlier than a terrestrial observer. For the
record: Perseverance observes the Sun daily, but mainly so that it
can tell from the drop in brightness that a Martian dust storm is
approaching.

AR3372 activity is increasing, while on July 11 and 12 several
M-class solar flares (some with CMEs) have already occurred (X-class
flare appeared to be imminent). In particular, it was almost certain
that the Earth's magnetic field activity would increase in the
following days. The probability of magnetic storms increased
significantly as AR3372 rotated more and more toward the Earth."

Carl, K9LA had comments on the OK1HH report from last week.

"There have been many papers in recent years that have looked at the
trends in ionospheric parameters over the past decades. Although the
changes are small, they do show up in ionosonde data after much math
to eliminate solar activity and geomagnetic field activity. These
results show both positive and negative trends in the F2 region
electron density, likely due to neutral atmosphere dynamics and
electrodynamics that could give regional differences.

An interesting paper in 2008 Geophysical Research Letters modeled
the increased levels of CO2 (global warming) in the atmosphere
versus the impact on the ionosphere.

See: https://bit.ly/3OaThCC

They used 2000 as the baseline with 365 ppmv of CO2, and doubled the
amount of CO2 for the year 2100. Their results showed that electron
densities in the E and F1 region would increase a couple percent in
2100 while the height of the E region peak would decrease a couple
km. In the F2 region, the electron density would decrease by several
percent in 2100 while the height of the F2 region would decrease 10
or so km."

Thanks to reader David Moore for this, on aurora hype:

https://bit.ly/44ovzsh

Flare video (with music.)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aghiHieqCZQ

Huge sunspot: https://bit.ly/44EcqTz

Tamitha Skov reports: https://youtu.be/nwtCBH04bIg

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins

Sunspot numbers for July 6 through 12, 2023 were 149, 147, 167, 183,
181, 227, and 219, with a mean of 181.9. 10.7 cm flux was 157.6,
161.4, 160.5, 179.2, 190.6, 213.5, and 193.3, with a mean of 179.4.
Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 18, 8, 4, 5, 8, and 6, with a
mean of 8.6. Middle latitude A index was 11, 16, 6, 4, 6, 8, and 6,
with a mean of 8.1.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (954:895/7)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP029
ARLP029 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP29
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 29 ARLP029
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA July 21, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP029
ARLP029 Propagation de K7RA

Average daily sunspot numbers declined, but average daily solar flux
increased. Sunspot averages were 181.9 last week, and 130.6 this
week. Average daily solar flux increased from 179.4 to 190.5.

Two new sunspot groups emerged on July 14, three more on July 17 and
another two on July 19.

Average daily planetary and middle latitude A index were both 12.9
this week, rising from 8.6 and 8.1.

Predicted solar flux is 185 on July 21-23, then 180, 178, 175 and
170 on July 24-27, 165 on July 28-29, 170 on July 30-31, 165 on
August 1-4, then 170, 175, 175 and 170 on August 5-8, 165 on August
9-11, 170 on August 12, 175 on August 13-14, and 170 on August
15-19, 160 on August 20-23, 165 on August 24-25, then 170 on August
26-27 and 165 on August 28-31.

Predicted planetary A index is 20, 12, 8, 12 and 10 on July 21-25, 5
on July 26 through August 2, then 10 and 8 on August 3-4, 5 on
August 5-14, then 12, 8 and 8 on August 15-17, and 5 on August
18-29.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere for July 20, 2023 from OK1HH.

"We've seen another seven days of mostly moderate solar activity,
with almost daily eruptions of moderate magnitude on the Sun. Some
of these have been the source of CMEs. If the Earth has been
affected by them, a geomagnetic disturbance followed, with a drop in
MUF and a worsening of HF propagation in the process.

As predicted, the expected CME hit the Earth's magnetic field on the
afternoon of 14 July (as part of the Bastille Day celebrations, but
not nearly as strongly as in 2000).

Another CME left the Sun on 14 July, and yet another on July 15.
Because the cloud of later ejected solar plasma was faster, it
cannibalized the previous CME. Together, they hit the Earth on July
18.

But by then AR3363 had already produced a significant long-lasting
M6-class solar flare, and energetic protons accelerated by this
flare reached the Earth and caused a radiation storm. Although MUFs
were quite high, HF conditions were adversely affected by frequent
occurrences of attenuation.

Another CME hit the Earth on 20 July, registered by the Earth's
magnetic field at 1708 UTC.

Further developments were predicted up to G1 to G2 class geomagnetic
storms, with a small probability also of G3, but by then this report
will have been completed and sent out.

Finally, just a little note on the consequences of global change: it
has been manifested in the last eleven-year cycles, in the Earth's
troposphere it is the result of warming, but in the ionosphere it is
rather the opposite. It has been the subject of a number of
scientific papers in recent years.

It is crucial for us, for amateur radio practice, that the current
MUFs are lower than those calculated from sunspot counts for most of
the twentieth century. Therefore, we should input Ri (or solar flux
SFU) into forecast programs lower than what is currently measured
and published.

F.K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/ "

News from N8II in West Virginia.

"The bands are in much better shape than most hams realize; activity
levels are normally quite low this summer. In the IARU contest I
observed 15M open to Europe through 0300 UTC and I had QSOs with
Indonesia, China, Nepal, Japan, Central/Western Siberia, Kazakhstan,
and the Philippines in the 2300-0300 UTC period.

I copied GR2HQ (Great Britain HQ station) on 10M CW at 0140 UTC. At
1100 UTC on 15M EU and Central/West Asia were very loud and I
started running a pile up on CW.

The Far East was also in on 15M around 1400 UTC Saturday when I
worked a loud Japanese station.

During the evening/night EU signals were extremely loud on 20M. I
also worked a few EU on 10M 1300-1400 UTC Saturday thanks to
Sporadic E and also caught Z30HQ (Macedonia HQ) on 10M CW Sunday
about 1130 UTC. I worked 697 QSOs concentrating on DX on the high
bands in less than 12 hours with 100 W.

Africa is workable on 10-15M well into our evening as are South
Pacific stations.

Sporadic E this year seems somewhat attenuated, but Es was good from
here and great from the Central/Western USA during the June VHF
contest. I made about 170 CW/SSB QSOs."

CNN presented a smart piece on the sunspot cycle peaking sooner than
expected. https://bit.ly/3rzNJJ6

Double peaked flare. https://bit.ly/46ZoznE

Astronomy club observes sunspots. https://bit.ly/46SaacR

Aurora. https://bit.ly/44FxM2U

Scientific American. https://bit.ly/3rHzGkB

Early peak. https://bit.ly/44Aa7AF https://bit.ly/3rEa0Wj

Cannibal eruption. https://bit.ly/3Q5dv1W

Great video of eruption. https://youtu.be/YOzHHM4B4gA

The latest from Space Weather Woman Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

https://youtu.be/KsKDVOuboyw

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell
us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins

Sunspot numbers for July 13 through 19, 2023 were 146, 141, 96, 99,
149, 142, and 141, with a mean of 130.6. 10.7 cm flux was 202.9,
180.6, 178.5, 184.3, 180, 218.5, and 188.9, with a mean of 190.5.
Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 20, 8, 10, 24, 16, and 5, with
a mean of 12.9. Middle latitude A index was 9, 17, 9, 13, 19, 16,
and 7, with a mean of 12.9.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (954:895/7)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP030
ARLP030 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP30
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 30 ARLP030
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA July 28, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP030
ARLP030 Propagation de K7RA

Average daily sunspot numbers declined slightly over the past week
(July 20-26) to 128.1, compared to 130.6 over the previous seven
days.

Average daily solar flux declined significantly from 190.5 to 172.2.

The solar flux forecast sees values at 165 and 162 on July 28-29,
158 on July 30-31, then 155 on August 1-3, then 165, 170 and 175 on
August 4-6, 180 on August 7-10, 175 on August 11-13, 180 on August
14-15, 175 on August 16-18, 170 on August 19, then 165, 165 and 160
on August 20-22, and 155 on August 23-26, 160 on August 27, 165 on
August 28-30, 170 and 175 on August 31 through September 1, and 180
on September 2-6.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on July 28-29, 15 and 10 on July
30-31, 5 on August 1-3, 8 on August 4, 5 on August 5-9, 10 on August
10, 8 on August 11-13, 5 on August 14-19, then 10, 8 and 5 on August
20-22, 12 on August 23-24, 10 on August 25-26, 5 on August 27-29, 10
and 8 on August 30-31, and 5 on September 1-5.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere -- July 27, 2023 from OK1HH.

"The likelihood of more massive solar flares has slowly decreased in
recent days as large groups of spots have fallen behind the western
limb of the solar disk and the magnetic configuration of the
remaining regions has become increasingly simple over the past few
days.

On July 20 and 21, two CMEs struck Earth's magnetic field in
accordance with the prediction. However, both impacts were weak and
did not produce even a minor geomagnetic storm.

Another weak halo CME was expected to leave the Sun on 23 July at
about 1530 UTC in a C5 class flare in spot group AR3376, coinciding
with the outburst of a relatively nearby magnetic filament. The
Earth's magnetic field detected its arrival at 0200 UTC on 26 July.
The result was an increase in geomagnetic activity and a
deterioration of shortwave propagation conditions. The disturbance
actually started on 25 July at 2235 UTC, but it was not clear
whether it was an early arrival of the same CME or another one that
we did not detect.

Note: since I will be abroad next week, I will not post the next
comment on August 3, but on August 10."

Sunspots, flares and aurora. https://bit.ly/44JxcRp

Mars Rover sees the far side of the sun. https://bit.ly/3KbRV8b

Rocket punches hole in ionosphere. https://bit.ly/3KceBFB

Nearly five decades ago I witnessed the same thing, viewed from
Marin County, California. It was a huge dramatic display, My friend
had seen it before, and said it was created by a rocket launch from
Vandenberg AFB in Southern California.

Another CME. https://bit.ly/44LhRjx

On July 27, Spaceweather.com sent this alert:

"A STRONG FARSIDE CME JUST HIT SOLAR ORBITER: Europe's Solar Orbiter
just got hit by the kind of CME that may have once caused a major
power blackout on Earth. This time, Earth was not in the line of
fire. It was a farside eruption that flew away from our planet.
Maybe next time?"

Massive flare? https://bit.ly/3Ya7OSC

Latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov. https://youtu.be/cD5VbWvBXsE

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell
us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins

Sunspot numbers for July 20 through 26, 2023 were 131, 121, 103,
117, 141, 137, and 147, with a mean of 128.1 10.7 cm flux was
184.3, 172.8, 174.4, 172.5, 165.1, 169, and 167.4, with a mean of
172.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 13, 9, 6, 7, 11, and
21, with a mean of 11. Middle latitude A index was 10, 11, 9, 5, 8,
12, and 23, with a mean of 11.1.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (954:895/7)