ACUS02 KWNS 150651
SWODY2
SPC AC 150649

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 AM CDT Sat May 15 2021

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with damaging wind gusts and isolated large
hail will be possible across parts of the southern and central
Plains Sunday afternoon and evening.

...Southern High Plains...
A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern and
central Plains on Sunday as a shortwave ridge moves across the
southern and central Rockies. At the surface, a low will likely
develop in the southern High Plains Sunday afternoon. Southerly
winds in the southern Plains will result in moisture advection
throughout the day, with surface dewpoints reaching the lower to mid
60s F across much of Texas. A west Texas dryline may again setup by
afternoon with low-level convergence becoming maximized along and to
the east of the dryline. This should support convective initiation
during the early to mid afternoon. Thunderstorms are forecast to
develop and move eastward across the southern High Plains during the
mid to late afternoon.

As has been the case in recent days, a broad corridor of moderate
instability will develop on Sunday across the southern High Plains.
Flow in the low to mid-levels is forecast to be west to
west-northwesterly, which will create enough directional shear for
organized severe storms. NAM forecast soundings at Amarillo and
Lubbock by 21Z have MLCAPE in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg range with 0-6
km shear near 35 kt. 850 to 500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be
near 8.0 C/km. This combination of instability and shear should be
favorable for supercells with isolated large hail. The forecast
soundings also show relatively large-temperature dewpoint spreads
and steep low-level lapse rates. This should be favorable for
high-based storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts. The
severe threat should move eastward across the southern High Plains
during the late afternoon and early evening, potentially reaching
northwest Texas and western Oklahoma by mid evening.

...Central High Plains...
A shortwave trough will move eastward across the southern and
central Plains on Sunday with a shortwave ridge moving across the
southern and central Rockies. An axis of moderate instability is
forecast to develop by afternoon from southwest Kansas extending
northwestward into northeast Colorado. Convection will initiate in
the higher terrain of eastern Colorado by early to mid afternoon.
Thunderstorms are forecast to move eastward across the central High
Plains during the late afternoon and early evening.

Model forecasts suggest that MLCAPE could reach the 1500 to 2500
J/kg range across eastern Colorado by Sunday afternoon. However,
deep-layer shear is forecast to be considerably less in eastern
Colorado than on previous days. For this reason, thunderstorms that
move across eastern Colorado may be less organized. The stronger
multicells could produce marginally severe wind gusts and hail. As
the storms move east-southeastward into southwest Kansas, they will
encounter more instability and stronger deep-layer shear. This may
help the storms to become more organized during the early to mid
evening. If a cold pool can develop, then wind damage and isolated
large hail would be possible.

...Ozarks...
A shortwave trough will move eastward across the southern and
central Plains on Sunday. At the surface, an axis of maximized
low-level moisture is forecast to be in place from northeast Kansas east-southward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Some model forecasts
show moderate instability along this corridor by afternoon, and
develop scattered thunderstorms. Steep low-level lapse rates near
7.5 C/km combined with 0-6 km shear in the 20 to 30 kt range would
be sufficient for a marginal wind damage threat.

..Broyles.. 05/15/2021

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 191813
SWODY2
SPC AC 191812

Day 2 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 PM CDT Wed May 19 2021

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with large hail and wind damage will be
possible tomorrow across parts of the northern High Plains.
Marginally severe thunderstorms may occur outside of the Slight risk
area in parts of the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi
Valley.

...Synopsis...
Broad upper ridging and associated large-scale subsidence will
prevail across much of the eastern CONUS, as a mid-level trough
gradually progresses eastward across the western CONUS. Across the
Plains states into the Upper Mississippi Valley, deep-layer
meridional flow will define the upper air pattern, with a wide
corridor of 30+ kt low-level flow advecting moisture northward
through the day. Low-level moisture return will become relatively
more meager with westward extent across the central CONUS. Still,
upslope flow along the higher terrain to the lee of the Rockies,
along with glancing upper support from the approaching mid-level
trough, will contribute to deep-layer ascent supporting the
development of strong storms with some severe risk across the
northern High Plains. Deep-moist convergence at the terminus of the
stronger low-level flow across the Upper Mississippi Valley is also
expected to foster organized storm development during the afternoon
hours, with a couple of severe storms possible.

...Northern High Plains...
Convective initiation is expected by mid afternoon to the lee of the
Rockies. Storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
atop a dry, deeply mixed boundary layer (extending up to 700-500 mb
in some spots) given relatively lackluster low-level moisture
recovery, with surface dewpoints remaining generally below 50F.
Nonetheless, sfc-3km AGL lapse rates are expected to exceed 8.5 C/km
by peak heating across much of the northern High Plains, overspread
by 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates supporting 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE.
Vigorous convective development is expected along the lee of the
Rockies, that combined with 30+ kts of sfc-6 km speed shear, will
support updraft organization into multicellular clusters and
transient supercells. Large hail may accompany the stronger
updrafts. However, relatively mediocre low-level shear and
evaporative cooling within the deep, very dry sub-cloud layer is
expected to result in cold pool mergers and subsequent upscale
growth into one or more MCSs by early evening. Damaging wind gusts
may accompany the stronger cores embedded within any organized MCS.

...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley...
While widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected
within the axis of stronger 925-850 mb flow at the start of the
period across parts of IA into MN, gradual clearing is expected
later in the day. While low and mid-level lapse rates will not be as
steep compared to areas farther west, richer low-level moisture is
expected to compensate. As such, 1000-1500 J/K MLCAPE is expected by
afternoon across the Upper Mississippi Valley, northwestward to the
U.S./Canada border, where a cold front is expected to be slowly
sagging southward. Damaging gusts and a couple severe hail stones
may accompany the stronger storms embedded in the low-level wind
maxima, and along the front itself. Given relatively modest speed
and directional vertical wind shear (with bulk effective shear
values remaining around or below 35 kts), the severe threat is
expected to remain relatively isolated, with a Marginal risk in
place to address this threat.

..Squitieri/Goss.. 05/19/2021

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 201727
SWODY2
SPC AC 201726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Thu May 20 2021

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE DAKOTAS AND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms capable of producing hail and strong gusty winds
will be possible Friday across parts of the High Plains, with a wind
gust or two also possible over parts of the Upper Midwest.

...Synopsis...
A high-amplitude upper flow field -- featuring a closed low and surrounding/broad cyclonic flow field -- will cover the western half
of the country, while a ridge encompasses the East.

At the surface, high pressure will prevail from the southern Plains/Ozarks/Midwest regions eastward. Meanwhile, on the eastern
fringe of the cyclonic flow field aloft, a surface baroclinic zone
will extend from the northern Plains to the Four Corners area, while
a lee trough extends from a weak frontal low over northeastern
Colorado southward across the southern High Plains region through
the period.

...North Dakota vicinity southward into the central High Plains... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop near and to the cool side of a
baroclinic zone lying from northeast Colorado north-northeastward
into the Dakotas during the afternoon. Most of the convection over
the Dakotas will likely remain elevated west of the front, with hail
being the primary severe risk. Farther southwest, across northeast
Colorado and far southeast Wyoming and into the Nebraska Panhandle
-- just northeast of the northeastern Colorado surface low -- a few surface-based storms are expected near peak heating. Here, locally gusty/damaging winds will be possible along with potential for hail
with the strongest storms. While the wind risk will decrease
through the evening as surface-based storms diminish, some hail risk
may continue with elevated storms persisting in a zone of warm
advection north/west of the front.

...Southern High Plains...
Isolated afternoon convective development is expected along a weak
lee trough across the High Plains of southeastern Colorado and into
eastern New Mexico, as the airmass destabilizes in tandem with
daytime heating. With moderately strong
southerly/south-southwesterly flow with height suggesting that a few
stronger storms/segments may evolve, and a deep mixed layer
supporting potential for evaporatively enhanced downdrafts, a 5%
wind/MRGL risk will is being included.

...Parts of the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes...
As a weak vort max on the western portion of the eastern U.S. upper
ridge moves north-northeastward across the Upper Midwest vicinity
through the afternoon and into the Upper Great Lakes during the
evening, showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to evolve,
within a modestly unstable environment. While weak lapse rates
should limit overall convective intensity/severe risk, moderately
strong south-southwesterly flow with height may be sufficient to
allow evolution of a few stronger storms during the afternoon and
early evening. Locally gusty/damaging winds would likely be the
main risk, before convection weakens diurnally.

..Goss.. 05/20/2021

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 211744
SWODY2
SPC AC 211743

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 PM CDT Fri May 21 2021

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

CORRECTED TEXT

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds will be
possible across the central and southern High Plains on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
While a short-wave upper trough is forecast to shift southeastward
across the northeastern U.S. Saturday, most of the eastern half of
the country will remain under the influence of broad upper ridging.
Meanwhile, a gradually weakening upper low is forecast to move very slowly/gradually northeastward across the Intermountain West.

At the surface, a baroclinic zone will persist from the upper
Mississippi Valley southwestward across the central High Plains and
into the Four Corners states, with the boundary making southward
progress across the north-central U.S. during the second half of the
period.

...Central and southern High Plains...
Afternoon heating/destabilization across the central and southern
High Plains will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorm
development, aided by weak upslope flow and subtle mid-level height
falls. The low-level southeasterly upslope flow will be topped by
mid-level southwesterlies, which should gradually increase across
the area as the upper jet shifts slowly east.

The combination of ample destabilization and sufficient shear
suggests organized/rotating storms will evolve locally, along with
attendant risk for locally damaging winds and hail. Convection will
likely spread northeastward with time toward lower elevations,
though eastward extent of severe risk should remain limited by
weaker shear over the lower Plains, and the influence of the
expansive eastern upper ridge.

...Northern Minnesota and eastern Dakotas...
Showers and a few thunderstorms -- possibly ongoing over the
northern Minnesota area early -- may become a bit more
widespread/vigorous through the afternoon and evening along a
baroclinic zone extending northeastward across the eastern Dakotas
and into northern Minnesota. Moderate deep-layer flow may allow a
few stronger storms to evolve, with a locally damaging gust or a few
marginal hail events possible.

..Goss.. 05/21/2021

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 220545
SWODY2
SPC AC 220544

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CDT Sat May 22 2021

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of severe gusts and large hail are
possible across portions of the northern Great Plains on Sunday
afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
A large-scale mid-level trough will reside over the western U.S.
with a ridge located over the MS Valley/Upper Midwest. Farther
east, a mid-level trough will glance the Northeast U.S. In the low
levels, a cold front will push through a large part of New England
during the day with the trailing portion of the front extending
through the Upper Midwest/northern Great Plains. An elongated area
of low pressure/surface trough will extend through the High Plains.

...Northern Great Plains southward through the High Plains...
A mid-level disturbance, embedded within a larger-scale western U.S.
trough, will move from the central Rockies north-northeastward into
the northern High Plains during the period. An attendant belt of
strong, meridional 500-mb flow (50+ kt) will gradually move
longitudinally east and overspread the western part of the Great
Plains warm sector during the afternoon/evening. Strong
south-southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a fetch of
mid-upper 50s boundary layer dewpoints from SD southward to NM/TX.
Strong heating will contribute to moderate buoyancy (1000-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE). Stronger flow over the northern and central High Plains
will support organized storm structures, including the possibility
for several supercells and bow-shaped structures. Models indicate
perhaps the most favorable combination of shear/buoyancy will focus
over SD during the afternoon/early evening. Organization into one
or more bands of storms is likely during the evening as a LLJ
strengthens with widely scattered severe gusts becoming the primary
threat before the severe risk lessens late.

...Northeast...
Heating and a reservoir of low 60s F dewpoints ahead of a cold front
will yield weak instability developing over northern New England by
midday Sunday. Nearly unidirectional west-northwesterly flow will
favor southeastward-moving storms as widely scattered convection
develops by early to mid afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts may
accompany a couple of the stronger downdrafts as this activity moves
into southern New England and the Hudson Valley during the late
afternoon/early evening.

..Smith.. 05/22/2021

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 221729
SWODY2
SPC AC 221727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Sat May 22 2021

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of severe gusts and large hail are
possible across portions of the northern Great Plains tomorrow
afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will eject into the northern High Plains, with
surface lee troughing encouraging the northward advection of a warm,
relatively moist airmass across the northern and central CONUS
tomorrow. Deep-layer ascent associated with the approaching trough,
and strong surface heating with upslope flow will support scattered
strong to severe thunderstorm development along the lee of the
Rockies, from the U.S./Canada to Mexico borders. Upper ridging and
surface high pressure will dominate much of the Ohio Valley into the
Southeast, with deep-layer northwesterly flow prevailing across the
Northeast, where scattered storms (some strong to locally severe)
are likely tomorrow afternoon ahead of a cold front.

...Northern High Plains into the Dakotas...
Weak surface low development is expected along a warm front across
the northern High Plains during the morning hours, with the low
expected to be positioned across western SD by afternoon peak
heating. Ahead of the low, low 60s F dewpoints will reach northern
SD during the afternoon, overspread by 7+ C/km mid-level lapse
rates, supporting widespread 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. 30-50 kts of
effective bulk shear is expected ahead of an eastward moving cold
front given ample speed shear. However, troposheric flow will be
meridional, with unidirectional wind shear above 700 mb expected
across the central/northern Plain states tomorrow. As such, storms
should rapidly grow upscale into linear segments, with damaging
winds and large hail expected as the primary severe hazards. Ahead
of the surface low and along the warm front across portions of
western SD, relatively greater backing of the surface winds will
contribute to locally better low-level veering vertical wind
profiles. Modestly enlarged hodographs/200+ m2/s2 effective SRH will
promote some tornado threat with circulations embedded in line
segments, along with any storms that can manage to stay discrete
ahead of the line.

...Central into the southern High Plains...
Low-level convergence due to upslope flow and afternoon peak heating
will encourage scattered thunderstorm development along the lee of
the higher terrain. Ahead of the storms, a moist low-level airmass (characterized by low 60s F dewpoints) will contribute to 1000-1500
J/kg MLCAPE. Relatively weak deep-layer and low-level shear will
foster cold pool mergers with multicellular clusters/transient
supercells upscale-growing into line segments an hour or so after
maturity. Large hail may occur with the initial, more discrete storm
modes, with damaging gusts becoming more prevalent after upscale
growth.

...Northeast...
Mid 60s F dewpoints beneath 5.5-6 C/km mid-level lapse rates will
foster 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the cold front, where at least
isolated thunderstorm development is expected tomorrow afternoon.
While tropospheric flow will be unidirectional (northwesterly),
40-50 kts of effective bulk shear suggests that some of the storms
may become organized/strong. As temperatures warm into the 80s F,
modest boundary-layer mixing may encourage downward momentum
transport of the stronger flow aloft, with a couple of damaging
gusts possible with the stronger storms.

..Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/22/2021

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 230532
SWODY2
SPC AC 230531

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CDT Sun May 23 2021

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms, capable of large hail and
severe gusts, are possible on Monday afternoon and evening for parts
of the central Great Plains.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level low and associated trough will slowly move into
south-central Canada from the MT/Canadian border. A mid-level ridge
is forecast over the OH Valley/Great Lakes. A cool front will push
east across parts of the Upper Midwest with the southern portion of
the boundary stalling over the central Great Plains. A dryline is
forecast over the southern High Plains.

...Central Great Plains into the southern High Plains...
Southerly low-level flow will maintain a fetch of appreciable
moisture into the central/southern High Plains where strong heating
is forecast. The southern fringe of stronger mid-level westerlies
is forecast to overspread the central High Plains as the primary
disturbance moves north into the Canadian Prairie Provinces. Model
guidance has shown some consistency in showing the greatest
combination of instability and sufficient deep-layer shear to exist
Monday afternoon across mainly parts of western into northern KS.
Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop during the
late afternoon/evening and pose a hail/wind risk with the stronger
storms. Some upscale growth into a cluster may occur during the
evening as low-level flow strengthens.

Farther south, isolated storms are forecast to develop over favored
terrain areas (i.e., southwest TX) and parts of eastern NM/west and
northwest TX. Weaker flow fields will limit the overall storm
intensity, but isolated large hail/severe gusts may accompany the
stronger cores before this activity weakens during the evening.

...Upper Midwest...
Holdover showers/cloud debris at the start of the period will likely
dissipate during the morning across parts of MN with the airmass
forecast to destabilize during the day. Models indicate 60s surface
dewpoints will contribute to moderate instability by mid afternoon.
Primarily multicell modes are forecast with the stronger 500-mb flow
forecast to remain displaced to the north/northwest of the warm
sector. Isolated hail/wind may accompany the stronger storms.

...VA/NC...
A couple of locally strong storms cannot be ruled out across parts
of this region during the afternoon within a regime of modest
northwesterly flow aloft. To the south of a residual frontal zone,
adequate heating/moisture may invigorate a few updrafts to
intermittently intensify. Coverage/confidence of this expected
threat appears too isolated to warrant the inclusion of low-severe probabilities at this time.

..Smith.. 05/23/2021

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 231731
SWODY2
SPC AC 231729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms, capable of large hail and
severe gusts, are possible Monday afternoon and evening for parts of
the central Great Plains into the southern High Plains.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough draped across the central/northern Rockies is
poised to eject into south-central Canada while upper ridging and
associated surface high pressure dominate the East Coast tomorrow.
Coincident with the mid-level trough, large-scale surface lee
troughing will encourage low-level moisture advection across the
central CONUS ahead of the lee-trough axis, where scattered to
numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon.
Steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread the moist sector, with
adequate instability from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Big
Bend in southwest TX promoting vigorous updraft development and
occasional severe storms.

...Portions of the Central Plains to the Southern High Plains...
By afternoon peak heating, at least scattered thunderstorm
development is expected ahead of a dryline positioned roughly from
southwest NE south-southwestward to eastern NM. These storms will
initiate in a thermodynamic environment characterized by 8+ C/km low
and mid-level lapse rates atop low 60s F dewpoints, with up to 3000
J/kg MLCAPE expected in spots. While tropospheric flow is expected
to be modest in magnitude and highly meridional and unidirectional
in nature, the very steep, deep-layer lapse rates will promote large
hail development with any of the stronger storms that manage to
sustain themselves. Some modest low-level veering may promote
transient supercell structures and a 2 inch diameter stone or two
cannot be completely ruled out. However, given a pronounced sfc-700
mb dry sub-cloud layer, especially south of the OK Panhandle, along
with overall weak low-level shear, cold pool mergers and upscale
growth into linear segments are expected only a few hours after
convective initiation. A damaging gust threat may ensue with the
upscale growth. If any storms manage to stay discrete and inflow
dominant during the early evening hours, the increase in low-level
flow magnitudes with the development of a nocturnal LLJ may foster a
brief window of opportunity for a tornado or two before the boundary
layer stabilizes.

...Upper Mississippi Valley...
By early to mid afternoon, temperatures warming into the 70s F, with
mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will promote 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and
convective initiation (given the presence of weak to negligible
convective inhibition). 6-6.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates atop the
richer low-level moisture will promote tall, skinny CAPE profiles to
support marginally severe hail with the more organized storms that
can benefit from the 30+ kts of effective bulk shear across the
area. A couple damaging gusts also cannot be ruled out.

...Portions of central Virginia into central North Carolina...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected in
association with a mid-level impulse traversing the upper ridge axis
during the afternoon. These storms are developing within a region
characterized by less than 6 C/km mid-level lapse rates, and weak
deep-layer tropospheric flow. While a damaging gust or marginally
severe hailstone cannot be completely ruled out, the latest guidance
continues to suggest that severe potential remains too low to
warrant probabilities at this time.

..Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/23/2021

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 241719
SWODY2
SPC AC 241718

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...CENTRAL PLAINS...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and
evening from the western Great Lakes southwestward into the central
Great Plains and into west Texas. Hail and marginally severe wind
gusts will be the primary threats.

...Southern and Central Plains...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Intermountain
West on Tuesday as a shortwave ridge moves across the Rockies.
Westerly mid-level flow will be in place across the Great Plains. At
the surface, a trough should be located from eastern New Mexico
northeastward into central Kansas. To the east of the surface
trough, south-southeast winds will result in moisture advection
across the southern High Plains and central Plains during the day.
Surface dewpoints should be in the lower to mid 60s F across west
Texas and west-central Kansas with a dryline located on the western
edge of the moist airmass. Surface heating and increasing low-level
convergence near the dryline will likely result in scattered
convective initiation during the mid to late afternoon.
Thunderstorms will likely develop and move eastward into the
stronger instability, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 2000
to 3000 J/kg range by late afternoon.

In addition to the instability, deep-layer shear is forecast to be
in the 25 to 30 kt range from west Texas into central Kansas. The
amount of shear will be aided by some directional shear in the
boundary-layer and speed shear in the mid-levels. This combined with
steep 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.0 C/km will be favorable for
strong updrafts. Supercell development will be possible, mainly in
areas that reach peak destabilization in the late afternoon. Hail
will be likely with any supercell. Multicells, with wind damage
potential will also be possible, especially if a convective cluster
or line can become organized.

...Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the northern Plains
on Tuesday as an associated 60 to 75 mid-level jet translates east-northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. At the
surface, a cold front will advance eastward across the northern
Plains as a pre-frontal trough moves into the upper Mississippi
Valley. Thunderstorm development is expected to occur along and near
the pre-frontal trough during the afternoon from northern and
western Wisconsin south-southwestward into far southeast Minnesota
and far northeast Iowa. Ahead of the pre-frontal trough, a corridor
of moderate instability, with SBCAPE peaking around 1500 J/kg, is
expected to setup from Iowa into central Wisconsin and upper
Michigan.

In addition to the instability, the mid-level jet will create
moderate deep-layer shear. Forecast soundings near Madison and La
Crosse by 21Z have south-southwest flow at the surface, with
westerly flow near 700 mb. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be near 50
kt. This would be more than sufficient for supercells. An elevated
mixed layer extending eastward from southern Minnesota into western
Wisconsin will create steep mid-level lapse rates supportive of
hail. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible. However,
the severe threat will be conditional upon the amount of
destabilization and number of storms that form relative to the
distribution of instability. Although a slight risk may be needed on
Tuesday across parts of the upper Mississippi Valley, the threat
appears too conditional at this time for an upgrade from marginal
risk.

..Broyles.. 05/24/2021

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 251731
SWODY2
SPC AC 251730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NEBRASKA AND FAR NORTHERN KANSAS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE GREAT PLAINS OUTSIDE OF THE ENHANCED RISK AREA AND IN PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable on Wednesday across
parts of the Great Plains, where damaging wind gusts, large hail and
a couple tornadoes are possible. The greatest potential for severe
will be in the central Plains. Scattered severe thunderstorms will
also be possible on Wednesday across parts of the central and
northern Appalachians.

...Central Plains/Northern High Plains...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies
on Wednesday as a shortwave ridge moves across the central and
northern Plains. Ahead of the upper-level trough, a surface low will
deepen across eastern Wyoming during the day. Upslope flow will be
in place across much of the northern Plains with south southeasterly
flow located across the central High Plains. Moisture advection will
take place across the central High Plains on Wednesday with a moist
axis setting up from western Kansas north-northwestward into western
Nebraska. Surface dewpoints along the moist axis will likely be in
the mid to upper 50s F, contributing to moderate instability by mid
to late afternoon. Convection will form in the higher terrain of
northeast Colorado and eastern Wyoming, with thunderstorm developing
and moving eastward into the central High Plains during the late
afternoon and early evening.

Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the central
High Plains on Wednesday. As the upper-level trough approaches and
the low-level jet strengthens, deep-layer shear will increase. This
combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range,
will make conditions favorable for supercells with large hail.
Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible
with the stronger updrafts. A tornado threat and wind-damage threat
will likely exist with supercells. Large-scale ascent associated
with the upper-level trough, is forecast to increase during the
evening across the central High Plains, resulting in the development
of a linear MCS. This combined with a strengthening low-level jet
should provide support for a severe convective line with numerous
damaging wind gusts. Wind gusts greater than 65 knots will be
possible during the evening along the leading edge of the line,
mainly from central Nebraska southward into far northern Kansas,
where an enhanced risk has been maintained for this outlook.

Thunderstorms will also develop across parts of the northern High
Plains during the afternoon. Although instability is forecast to be
weak from northeast Wyoming into southeast Montana, deep-layer shear
will be strong due to influence of the upper-level trough. This
combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will support a marginal
hail threat. Strong gusty winds may also occur with the multicells
that can become organized.

...Southern High Plains...
West to southwest mid-level flow will be in place across the
southern High Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, a moist airmass
will be located across much of west Texas, where a dryline will form
during the afternoon. Surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F to
the east of the dryline should yield MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg
range. Increasing low-level convergence along the dryline during the
mid to late afternoon should result in isolated convective
initiation. Storms that can initiate despite the warm air aloft will
likely become supercellular, due to the moderate deep-layer shear.
This combined with very steep mid-level lapse rates in the 8.0 to
8.5 C/km range, will support a threat for large hail. Hailstones of
greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. The severe
threat is expected to decrease during the mid evening as a capping
inversion strengthens across the southern High Plains.

...Central and Northern Appalachians...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Great Lakes
region on Wednesday with west-northwesterly mid-level flow located
across much of the northeastern U.S. At the surface, a cold front
will advance southeastward into the lower Great Lakes region during
the afternoon. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front
with surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F. Although Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario will keep the airmass stable just downstream of the
lakes, moderate instability is forecast to develop in much of New
York and Pennsylvania by midday. Thunderstorms will develop along
the western edge of the moderate instability and move eastward into
central New York and northern Pennsylvania during the afternoon.

NAM Forecast soundings along this corridor at 21Z/Wednesday show
moderate deep-layer shear with very steep lapse rates in the
boundary layer. This will be favorable for damaging wind gusts with
supercells and organized multicell line segments. Supercells with
large hail will also be possible, mainly with discrete storms that
form further east in the stronger instability. A tornado threat may
also develop during the mid to late afternoon. The greatest
potential for tornadoes is forecast across eastern New York and in
western New England, where 850 mb winds are forecast to be stronger
and 0-3 km storm relative helicities are forecast to be in the 250
to 350 m2/s2 range during the afternoon.

..Broyles.. 05/25/2021

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 261733
SWODY2
SPC AC 261731

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE PARTS OF THE
OZARKS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely on Thursday and Thursday
night from parts of the southern and central Great Plains into the
Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Very large hail, significant
severe wind gusts, and several tornadoes are possible.

...Southern and Central Plains...
An upper-level trough will move across the central High Plains on
Thursday as west-southwesterly mid-level flow remains in place
across much of the southern and central Plains. At the surface, a
low will move northeastward across the mid Missouri Valley as a
trailing cold front advances southeastward across the central
Plains. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop ahead of the
front during the morning across southern Kansas, in response to the
low-level jet. To the south of this convection across much of the
southern Plains, the airmass will be moist and unstable. Moderate
instability is expected to develop by midday across much of Oklahoma
and southeast Kasnas. A sharp gradient of instability may be present
during the early afternoon across far southern Kansas or far
northern Oklahoma related to an outflow boundary associated with the
morning convective cluster. Convection should gradually increase
along the outflow boundary, moving eastward across northeast
Oklahoma, far southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri during the
afternoon.

In addition to moderate instability, NAM forecast soundings by
21Z/Thursday to the north of Tulsa to near Springfield have 0-6 km
shear in the 40 to 45 kt range. This will support supercell
development, mainly with cells that remain discrete or with storms
at the southern end of short line-segments that develop. 0-3 km
storm relative helicities are forecast to increase to about 200
m2/s2 across northeast Oklahoma during the late afternoon suggesting
that a tornado threat will be possible. Large hail and wind damage
will also be likely with supercells. Damaging wind gusts of greater
than 65 knot could occur, especially if a cold pool can organize.

Further southwest into west Texas and western Oklahoma, the southern
part of an upper-level trough will move across the southern High
Plains on Thursday. A surface trough is expected to deepen across
west Texas as a cold front advances southward into the Texas
Panhandle. Moderate instability should be in place by afternoon
along and south of the front across much of the southern High
Plains. A dryline will develop on the western edge of the moderate
instability with convective initiation taking place just to the east
of the dryline during the mid to late afternoon. These storms should
move eastward and affect parts of the Caprock, Low Rolling Plains
and western Oklahoma during the late afternoon and early evening.
MLCAPE is forecast to be in the 2500 to 3500 J/Kg range with 0-6 km
shear between 40 and 50 kt. This will be favorable for supercells
with large hail. The instability and mid-level lapse rates exceeding
8.5 C/Km will make hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter
possible. An isolated tornado and wind-damage threat should
accompany supercells during the late afternoon and early evening.

...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the central Plains
on Thursday as west to southwest mid-level flow remains in place
across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a low
will move eastward across Iowa as a trailing cold front advances
southeastward across the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. A
morning MCS is expected to track eastward across southern Iowa and
northern Missouri early in the period, moving southeastward across
central and southern Illinois during the late morning and early
afternoon. This MCS could be associated with damaging wind gusts and
large hail. An outflow boundary is expected to push southward from
the convective complex into north-central Missouri by midday, along
which additional convective development is expected during the
afternoon. To the south of this outflow boundary, a moist and
unstable airmass will be in place across southern and central
Missouri. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop in this
unstable airmass during the afternoon, with a second MCS likely
organizing and moving southeastward across the Ozarks and mid
Mississippi Valley during the evening.

NAM forecast soundings by 21Z across in southern and central
Missouri have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg with some directional
shear in the low-levels and about 50 kt of westerly flow at 500 mb.
This will create 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 Kt range supporting
supercell development. A mixed mode will be likely as cells rapidly
increase in coverage during the late afternoon. Short organized line
segments should be capable of damaging wind gusts, especially in
areas where low-level lapse rates become the steepest. A linear MCS
is forecast to move east-southeastward across the region during the
early evening. Damaging wind gusts of greater than 65 knots will be
possible along the leading edge of this line. Severe storms will
also be possible during the day further north across northeast
Missouri, southeast Iowa and in much of Illinois, but instability
will not be as strong which should keep any severe threat a bit more
isolated.

Due to uncertainty associated with the placement of the outflow
boundary from the morning MCS, significant changes to the Enhanced
Risk area will not be made at this time. The slight risk area has
been adjusted northward to account for new models runs that suggest
moderate instability will be possible as far north as eastern Iowa
and far northwest Illinois. The 5 percent tornado contour has been
extended northward across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley where
low-level shear will become maximized in the late afternoon.

..Broyles.. 05/26/2021

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 271729
SWODY2
SPC AC 271727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail and wind
damage are possible Friday in southwest Texas and southeast New
Mexico. Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms associated
with wind damage are also possible over parts of the Mid-Atlantic.

...Southern High Plains...
A shortwave ridge will move eastward into the Rockies on Friday as west-northwesterly mid-level flow remains over much of the southern
and central Plains. At the surface, upslope east-southeasterly flow
will be in place across much of the southern Plains. As a result, a
moist and unstable airmass will be pushed back westward into far
west Texas and southeastern New Mexico. A sharply defined dryline
will develop on the western edge of the moist airmass from the Davis
Mountains extending northward into the Sacramento Mountains of
southeast New Mexico. Surface dewpoints to the east of the dryline
will be in the lower to mid 60s F, with moderate to strong
instability developing by afternoon. To the east of the dryline,
MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg. Isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to form to the east of
the dryline with the storms move eastward into the southern High
Plains during the late afternoon and early evening.

In spite of the upper-level ridge, the environment across southeast
New Mexico and far west Texas will be favorable for severe storms.
In addition to the strong instability, 0-6 km shear is forecast to
be near 50 kt, mainly due to directional shear in the low-levels and
strong speed shear in the mid-levels. 700 to 500 mb lapse rates are
forecasts to be near 8.0 C/Km, which will be favorable for
supercells with large hail. A couple of supercells are expected to
develop across the southern High Plains during the late afternoon.
These storms should also be capable of producing damaging wind
gusts. Due to the presence of the upper-level ridge, the severe
threat is expected to decrease by mid to late evening as the capping
inversion becomes re-established in the southern High Plains.

...Mid-Atlantic...
A positively-tilted upper-level trough will move across the mid
Mississippi Valley on Friday as west-southwesterly mid-level flow
remains over much of the eastern U.S. At the surface, a low will
move eastward from the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic
during the day. To the southeast of the surface, low, a sharply
defined warm front is forecast across central and eastern Virginia. Surface-based convective development is expected near the warm front
during the early to mid afternoon. Surface dewpoints in the mid 60s
F near and to the south of the warm front coupled with surface
heating should result in the development of a pocket of moderate
instability by midday. Forecast soundings at 21Z on Friday in
south-central Virginia within this pocket of instability, have
MLCAPE peaking around 1500 J/kg and 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 35 kt
range. Winds in the boundary layer are veered to the southwest and
speed shear is present mostly in the mid-levels. 0-3 km lapse rates
are forecast to be very steep, approaching 8.0 C/km. This
environment will be favorable for isolated damaging wind gusts with
the stronger multicell line segments. The severe threat will be
fairly confined along and just to the south of the warm front, where instability and low-level convergence will be the strongest.

...Northern High Plains...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies
on Friday as mid-level flow remains southwesterly across much of the
northern High Plains. At the surface, a narrow corridor of maximized
low-level moisture will be located from eastern Colorado
north-northwestward into far southeast Montana. Weak instability is
forecast to develop along this corridor as surface temperatures peak
in the mid to late afternoon. Convection will likely initiate in the
higher terrain of northeast Wyoming and southern Montana during the
afternoon, with thunderstorms moving eastward into the northern High
Plains. In spite of the weak instability, lapse rates will be very
steep. 0-3 km lapse rates along the moist axis are forecast to
approach 9.0 C/km by 21Z/Friday with 700-500 mb lapse rates being
near 8.0 C/Km. This will be favorable for an isolated severe threat.
Hail and marginally severe wind gusts will be possible, especially
if a rotating storm or two can form and persist during the late
afternoon and early evening.

..Broyles.. 05/27/2021

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 280525
SWODY2
SPC AC 280523

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST COLORADO
AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and
severe gusts are possible Saturday for parts of southeastern
Colorado and northeastern New Mexico.

...Central and southern High Plains...
A weak mid-level disturbance is forecast to crest a flattened
mid-level ridge over the southern High Plains on Saturday. Moist east-southeasterly upslope flow will maintain a fetch of
appreciable moisture into southwest TX and southeast NM, with the
northern periphery of the ribbon of moisture extending into eastern
CO. A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates coupled with strong
heating near the higher terrain, will favor diurnal storm
development with storm coverage highest over southern CO and
northeast NM. Strong to severe multicells and perhaps a supercell
or two, will lend a risk for large hail and severe gusts. This
activity will likely form near the terrain-preferred areas and move east-southeast into the High Plains during the late
afternoon/evening.

...Northeast NC...
A mid-level trough over the OH Valley will slowly move eastward
during the period. A surface low will weaken during the day as it
moves southeast from the VA/NC border to east of the Carolinas as a
cold front pushes southeast. Forecast soundings show moderate
destabilization over the coastal plain with upper 60s F dewpoints
and 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few strong to severe storms may be
capable of an isolated wind damage threat.

..Smith.. 05/28/2021

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 011726
SWODY2
SPC AC 011724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Tue Jun 01 2021

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
OH VALLEY THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH AND OVER A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and downburst winds are
possible in eastern New Mexico and west through south Texas
Wednesday. Isolated strong to severe gusts are also possible from
the Tennessee Valley into southern portions of the Ohio Valley.

...Synopsis...
Broad upper troughing is forecast to move eastward from the Plains
through the MS Valley on Wednesday. A shortwave trough embedded
within this larger upper troughing is expected to move into the Mid
MS Valley, accompanied by modestly enhanced flow aloft. A surface
low attendant to this shortwave will likely be centered near the
confluence of the MS and OH Rivers early Wednesday, before moving
gradually northeastward across the Lower OH Valley. As this surface
low moves northeast, an associated cold front will sweep southeast
through the Mid MS Valley, Mid-South, and western TN Valley.

Western portion of this frontal boundary is forecast to begin the
period arcing from the Arklatex into the TX Hill Country and back
through the TX South Plains. Definition of this front is expected to
weaken throughout the day amid low-level moisture advection and a
sharpening lee trough across the southern High Plains.

...Mid-South into the Lower/Middle OH Valley...
Numerous showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the
region at the beginning of the period early Wednesday morning. These
showers and thunderstorms should gradually move northeastward while
weakening as the warm conveyor responsible for their development
also shifts northeastward. Additional storms are then anticipated
during the evening as the cold front mentioned in synopsis interacts
with the moist and moderately unstable air mass in place across the
region. Vertical shear will be modest as well, and generally
multicellular mode is anticipated. Even so, a few more organized
updrafts are possible, with an attendant threat for severe weather.
Damaging downburst winds are the primary threat, but a brief tornado
is also possible.

...Southern High Plains through the TX Hill Country...
Two areas within the region appear to favor thunderstorm
development, along the lee trough across the southern High Plains as
well as along and south of the stalled frontal boundary from the TX
Hill Country south into South TX.

Modest low-level thermodynamic conditions (i.e. surface temperatures
in mid/upper 70s and surface dewpoints in the low/mid 50s) are
anticipated across the southern High Plains. However, steep lapse
rates atop these low-level conditions will still result in moderate
buoyancy. This buoyancy coupled modest vertical shear may result in
a few stronger storms capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated
hail.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are anticipated in the vicinity
of the stalled front over the TX Hill Country. Frontal position may
be augmented by antecedent storms, but the general expectation is
for late morning/early afternoon development near the front as the
air mass destabilizes. Weak vertical shear will promote mostly
multicells, but an isolated storm or two may produce damaging wind
gusts.

..Mosier.. 06/01/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 021721
SWODY2
SPC AC 021720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Wed Jun 02 2021

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible over a portion of the Middle
Atlantic Thursday with locally strong to damaging gusts the primary
threat. Other strong to severe storms with locally strong to
damaging wind gusts will be possible over a portion of the Tennessee
and Ohio Valleys as well as eastern Oregon.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will move from portions of the Mid-South into the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. A weak frontal boundary will push through
the Ohio Valley into the Appalachians. Ahead of the boundary,
moisture return is expected to continue through the day into the
Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast. In the Pacific Northwest
into the northern Rockies, a shortwave trough will impact the region
by late afternoon into the evening.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Widely-scattered to scattered convection is expected to develop both
ahead of the weak boundary and within areas of pre-frontal
confluence from northern Virginia into southeastern New York. There
remain uncertainties as to where the greatest boundary layer
destabilization will occur given cloud cover within the warm
conveyor belt as well as warm advection precipitation in North Carolina/southern Virginia. Forecast soundings indicate a greater
potential for cloud breaks from northern Virginia into southeastern
New York. This area will also see a modest increase in 850 mb flow
by afternoon/evening which will increase the threat for damaging
gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado. Father north into eastern New York/Vermont, there is less certainty on the degree of
destabilization, but relatively strong mid-level forcing should
promote scattered storms with some attendant threat for wind damage.
Mid-level lapse rates will not be overly steep, but where greater
buoyancy develops isolated large hail will be possible.

...Tennessee Valley into Ohio Valley...
Ongoing clouds and precipitation early in the period will tend to
keep buoyancy modest across the region. Portions of the Mid-South
may see relatively greater clearing/destabilization during the day.
1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 35-40 kts of effective shear will promote
marginally organized storms along the weak surface boundary.
Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat.

...Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies...
The mid-level trough and attendant cold front will be the focus for
isolated to possibly widely scattered convection from eastern Oregon
into the Idaho Panhandle. Steep lapse rates are expected both at the
surface and aloft. Storms will be capable of damaging wind gusts and
large hail.

..Wendt/Mosier.. 06/02/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 031729
SWODY2
SPC AC 031728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Thu Jun 03 2021

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms are possible across a portion of Montana on
Friday with large hail and damaging gusts possible. Other strong to
severe storms may occur from the central and eastern Carolinas into
a portion of the Middle Atlantic. Damaging winds will be the primary
threat with these storms.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough will be along the Appalachians early in
the period and will move into the Mid-Atlantic by early afternoon. A
weak cold front will move into the Northeast southwestward into the
Carolinas and generally stall/weaken with time. In the Northwest, a
strong trough will move into Washington and Oregon with modest
height falls across the northern Rockies. An attendant cold front
will move into Idaho/Montana.

...Montana...
Storms are expected to develop within the higher terrain of
southwestern Montana as modest height falls occur during the
afternoon. These initial storms are likely to be supercellular given
40-45 kts of effective shear. With at least some mid/high cloud
cover moving in from the southwest, the amount of buoyancy is not
certain, but around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is plausible. Forecast
soundings show steep lapse rates at low and mid levels. Large hail
and damaging wind gusts will be possible. Some consideration was
given to increasing hail probabilities with these initial
supercells, but there is enough question as to storm converge and
intensity that an upgrade to 15% will be withheld. As storms move
east towards the plains, storms are likely to become more outflow
dominant as they encounter greater low-level temperature/dewpoints
spreads and weak low-level shear. The primary threat will transition
to damaging winds. A more organized cold-pool-driven wind threat is
uncertain given the weak low-level shear.

...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic...
Some destabilization is possible as cloud cover and precipitation
along the warm conveyor moves offshore. Storms are expected to
develop along a relatively weak boundary approaching the region.
Though the trough axis will exit the region around midday, enough
lingering mid-level flow will promote 30-40 kts of effective shear.
The degree of destabilization remains in question, but 1000-1500
J/kg MLCAPE appears probable. With only modest shear and mid-level
lapse rates, the primary severe threat with these storms will likely
be damaging wind gusts.

...Southern New England...
A few storms may develop by afternoon underneath the upper-level
trough and along the front. Buoyancy is not expected to be large on
account of cloud cover. Even if greater destabilization is able to
occur, an unfavorable overlap with weak shear is expected as
stronger flow will have moved eastward by the afternoon. The window
in time and space for a strong gust or two will be relatively
limited.

..Wendt/Mosier.. 06/03/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 040550
SWODY2
SPC AC 040549

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Fri Jun 04 2021

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms will be possible across a portion of the northern
Plains and northern New England Saturday.

...Northern Plains...

Shortwave ridging will prevail much of the day across the northern
High Plains. However, an upstream shortwave trough will approach
this region from the west during the evening accompanied by a cold
front. Low-level moisture will remain modest in the pre-frontal warm
sector with surface dewpoints generally from the upper 40s to low
50s F. However, strong diabatic heating will contribute to deeply
mixed boundary layers with steep lapse rates supporting 1000-1500
J/kg MLCAPE. Deeper forcing for ascent will be limited during the
day, given proximity to upper ridge. However, a pre-frontal trough,
the mountains of northern WY and southern MT as well as the Black
Hills of SD could serve as foci for a few storms to develop as the
boundary layer destabilizes during the afternoon. This activity will
spread northeast within the frontal zone during the evening posing a
threat for mainly damaging wind and some hail through eastern MT and
western through northern ND.

...Northern New England...

Low-amplitude shortwave trough currently over southern Saskatchewan
should reach northern New England Saturday afternoon accompanied by
a belt of strengthening deep-layer winds. Deeper forcing for ascent accompanying this feature and presence of modest instability with
800-1200 J/kg MUCAPE may support development of a few thunderstorms
by mid to late afternoon. Activity will spread southeast during the
evening within the evolving northwest flow regime. It now appears
that the boundary layer will become sufficiently unstable during the
afternoon into early evening to support surface-based storms, with
30-40 kt effective bulk shear promoting organized structures
including bowing segments and a few supercells. Locally strong to
damaging gusts should be the main threat, though some hail and a
tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

...Upper Mississippi Valley through Northern Great Lakes...

A stalled front should reside from northern MN through upper MI
Saturday where the atmosphere will likely become moderately
unstable. This weak boundary may begin to lift north as a warm front
later in the day. While convergence is expected to remain weak along
this feature, there is some chance that a few storms could develop
with afternoon peak heating. Should storms develop, they may become
capable of producing a few instances of locally strong wind gusts
and hail.

..Dial.. 06/04/2021

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ACUS02 KWNS 071732
SWODY2
SPC AC 071730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Mon Jun 07 2021

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN
THROUGH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the northern High
Plains Tuesday, with the greatest risk likely during the afternoon
and evening. Very large hail, damaging wind, and a couple tornadoes
will be possible. A few storms with locally strong gusts will also
be possible from western portions of the Tennessee Valley into the
middle Mississippi Valley.

...Northern High Plains...

Shortwave trough currently approaching southern CA will deamplify as
it ejects quickly north northeast Tuesday in response to an
amplifying upstream synoptic trough. This impulse will begin to
impact the northern High Plains by late afternoon or early evening
Tuesday. A surface low is forecast to develop over northeast
WY/southeast MT in response to the approaching shortwave trough,
with a warm front extending eastward from the low through ND during
day. A dryline will extend southward from the low through the
central High Plains. Boundary layer dewpoints generally from the
upper 50s to low 60s F will advect northward through the warm sector
beneath steep lapse rates, supporting strong instability with
2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Storms will likely develop along and north of
the warm front during the late afternoon and evening as the
low-level jet and deeper forcing for ascent increases in response to
the approaching shortwave trough. High based storms may also develop
over the higher terrain of southern MT and intensify as they move
north and interact with the warm front. Vertical wind shear will
strengthen to 40-50 kt with the approach of the impulse supporting
initial supercell storm modes capable of very large hail and
damaging wind. A couple of tornadoes are also possible, especially
with storms interacting with the warm front before becoming elevated
deeper onto the cooler side of this boundary. An upgrade to ENH risk
might be warranted for a portion of this region in day 1 updates.

Farther south from western SD into western NE, additional storms
will likely develop along the dryline with both supercell and
multicells expected before storms evolve into a linear MCS. Damaging
wind and large hail will be the primary threat through the evening.


...Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valley regions...

Shortwave trough embedded within weak winds aloft will drift slowly
east into the mid MS and western TN Valley regions Tuesday. A very
moist boundary layer will remain in place, but there still remains
some uncertainty regarding where corridors of best destabilization
will occur given potential impacts of any ongoing thunderstorms.
Nevertheless, some cloud breaks and pockets of heating / low-level destabilization are expected, and storms may intensify along
residual outflow boundaries during the day. Isolated damaging wind
will be the main threat from mid afternoon into the early evening.

..Dial.. 06/07/2021

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 081725
SWODY2
SPC AC 081723

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Tue Jun 08 2021

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL MT...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central
and western Montana on Wednesday. A severe storm or two may also
develop late Wednesday afternoon along the dryline in west Texas.
Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary concerns in both
areas.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging is forecast to be in place from northern Mexico
northeastward through the central Plains into the Upper Midwest
early Wednesday. A weak embedded upper low will likely exist on the northeastern periphery of this upper ridge over the mid MS Valley.
Western periphery of the ridge will be characterized by moderate
southwesterly flow aloft ahead of western CONUS upper troughing.
Shortwave trough embedded within this western CONUS upper troughing
is expected to move through northern/central CA, reaching the
western Great Basin by early Thursday morning. As it does, strong
southwesterly flow aloft will increase from the northern Rockies
southward through much of the Great Basin.

A moist air mass will be in place east of the Rockies, contributing
to widespread thunderstorm activity in the vicinity of the upper low
over much of the OH and TN Valleys. Additionally, convectively
enhanced vorticity maximum resulting from antecedent thunderstorms
across the Arklatex on Tuesday/Tuesday night is forecast to move
eastward through the Lower MS Valley, likely providing the impetus
for widespread showers and thunderstorms across the Lower MS Valley
and much of the Southeast.

...MT...
A surface low is expected to move northeastward from eastern MT
through ND from late Tuesday night through early Wednesday
afternoon. An attendant cold front will push southward/southeastward
through much of the northern High Plains. However, post-frontal
upslope flow is still expected to advect low-level moisture back
northwestward through the northern High Plains during the afternoon. Additionally, development of a second surface low is anticipated
across southeast MT Wednesday evening, strengthening the easterly
low-level across much of northern MT and contributing to further
moisture advection. Consequently, a relatively moist and unstable
air mass will likely be in place ahead of storms (triggered by the
approaching shortwave trough) moving off the higher terrain
Wednesday evening. These thermodynamic conditions coupled with
strong vertical shear will support supercells capable of large hail
and strong wind gusts. A low-probability tornado potential exists
near HVR and vicinity with any organized storms that occur before
03Z.

...Far West TX into Southwest OK...
Strong instability (i.e. 3000+ J/kg of MLCAPE) is forecast to
develop along the dryline during the afternoon. Convective
inhibition will likely suppress deep convection across much of the
region but a few storms may take root in areas where low-level
convergence is maximized. A deeply mixed boundary layer and weak
flow suggests any storms that do develop would be slow moving and
outflow dominant. Even so, a few storms could become strong enough
to produce large hail and/or strong wind gusts.

..Mosier.. 06/08/2021

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 091727
SWODY2
SPC AC 091726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Wed Jun 09 2021

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are likely Thursday afternoon and evening
over portions of the northern High Plains and northern Plains. All
severe hazards are possible, including very large hail, 70+ mph
wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging is forecast to be in place from northern Mexico north-northeastward across the Great Plains early Thursday morning.
This upper ridging is expected to then dampen throughout the day as
a strong shortwave trough, initially over the western Great Basin,
progresses northeastward through the northern/central Rockies and
eventually through the northern High Plains. This shortwave will
likely become increasingly negatively tilted throughout this
progression while the stronger mid-level flow attendant to the
system also spreading into the northern High Plains/northern Plains.
Strong buoyancy will exist within the air mass over the northern
High Plains/northern Plains ahead of this shortwave, contributing to
the risk for severe thunderstorms (discussed in more detail below).

Farther east, broad but weak upper troughing will likely persist as
a weak embedded upper low drifts slowly eastward across the TN and
middle OH Valleys. The air mass in vicinity and downstream of this
upper low will be moist and at least marginally unstable,
contributing to the potential for numerous thunderstorms across much
of the OH and TV Valleys, northern portions of the Southeast, and
much of the Mid-Atlantic.

Elsewhere, an unstable air mass may interact with an east-west
oriented boundary across MN and WI east of the upper ridge, with a
few strong storms possible.

...Northern High Plains into the Northern/Central Plains...
Ample low-level moisture is expected to be in place early Thursday
morning ahead of the shortwave trough (and any associated surface
features) mentioned in the synopsis. Deep mixing is anticipated
throughout the day, but persistent and strong low-level moisture
advection should keep dewpoints in the 60s. Less mixing along the
warm front could lead to a corridor of upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints
central ND into far northeast MT by Thursday afternoon.

Surface low is forecast to deepen over southeast MT. Low-level
convergence along the lee trough extending southward from this low
as well as near the low itself is expected to result in convective
initiation once the air mass destabilizes during the late afternoon. Large-scale ascent will also be increasing during this time, aiding
this convective initiation. The deeply mixed, strongly unstable, and
moderately sheared environment will support initial supercells
capable of all severe hazards, including giant hail and strong wind
gusts. Backed low-level winds in vicinity of the surface low may
result in a locally greater tornado threat near the MT/ND/SD border intersection.

Upscale growth into one or more convective lines is anticipated soon
after the initially discrete mode. The downstream air mass across
the northern and central Plains will be very supportive of continued
eastward progression, with severe wind gusts possible throughout the
evening across much of ND, SD, and NE.

...East-Central MN into Northern WI and western Upper MI...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon along a
weak surface boundary extended across the region. Mid to upper 60s F
dewpoints will result in ample instability, which may support a few
strong updrafts during near peak heating. Given the abundant
moisture in place, a few water-loaded downbursts could occur with
the strongest storms.

..Mosier.. 06/09/2021

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 101725
SWODY2
SPC AC 101723

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST
IOWA ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KANSAS AND INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Friday from southwest Iowa
across much of eastern Kansas and into northern Oklahoma.

...Central/Southern Plains...
Upper ridging is forecast to extend from northern Mexico
northeastward through the Upper Midwest early Friday morning. A
compact, negatively titled shortwave trough will move across ND into
southern Manitoba along the northwestern periphery of the upper
ridging, contributing to some modest dampening. This shortwave is
expected to force the development of a well-organized convective
line over the northern Plains late Thursday evening.

This line is then forecast to progress eastward/southeastward
overnight. Its location early Friday morning will depend on the
speed of its forward progression overnight Thursday, which is tied
to numerous low-predictability factors regulating MCS maintenance
(including rear-inflow jet strength and cold pool/vertical shear
balance). Given this low predictability, 5-percent severe
probabilities will be maintained and expanded for this outlook.
However, the very moist and unstable air mass expected to be in
place ahead of the outflow will support strong updrafts, and the
potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. As such, upgrades
will likely be needed in future outlooks once the location of the
storm outflow becomes more certain.

...Middle/Upper OH and TN Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic and
Southeast...
A broad and relatively weak shortwave trough is also expected to
move from the middle OH Valley eastward/southeastward into the
Mid-Atlantic. The air mass in the vicinity and downstream of this
shortwave will be very moist and modestly buoyancy, resulting
widespread thunderstorm development across from the middle/upper OH
and TN Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic and much of the Southeast. Weak
shear will likely preclude much updraft organization, resulting in a predominately multicellular, outflow-dominant storm mode. Even so,
some forward-propagating line segments may exist for a
short-duration. Additionally, the very moist air mass will
contribute to the risk of water-loaded downbursts. The
isolated/brief nature of these threats and their reliance on more
mesoscale processes (such as storm mergers and outflow boundaries)
for development precludes adding severe probabilities with this
outlook. However, one or more small areas may be needed in later
outlooks.

..Mosier.. 06/10/2021

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 190555
SWODY2
SPC AC 190554

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe storms may occur Sunday into Sunday
night across parts of the Midwest into the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley. Large hail, severe/damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes
all appear possible.

...Midwest to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley...
A large-scale upper trough should amplify while moving eastward
across the north-central CONUS and central Canada on Sunday. An
embedded shortwave trough with enhanced mid-level westerly flow is
forecast to move east-southeastward from the northern Plains across
the Upper Midwest and to the Great Lakes by Sunday night. At the
surface, a weak low should develop northeastward from the
central/northern Plains towards the Upper Midwest through the day.
There is uncertainty with possible secondary surface low formation
and subsequent deepening over Lower MI and vicinity Sunday night.
Regardless, a cold front will likely sweep southeastward across the
Midwest, Great Lakes, and OH Valley through the period. A warm front
should also develop northward in tandem with the surface low.

Mainly elevated storms aided by low-level warm/moist advection may
be ongoing at the start of the period Sunday morning across IA and
vicinity. Although this activity may pose an isolated threat for
hail and/or gusty winds, a more substantial severe threat is
expected to develop by Sunday afternoon along and ahead of the cold
front. Modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates emanating from the
Plains should overspread parts of the Midwest and surface warm
sector. Rich low-level moisture is also expected to be in place
ahead of the cold front. As diurnal heating occurs, at least
1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop across the warm sector.
Strengthening mid-level westerly flow ahead of the approaching
shortwave trough will likely foster 35-50 kt of effective bulk
shear.

Organized severe storms should develop along and ahead of the cold
front through the afternoon, and a mix of supercells and
multicells/clusters appears possible. It remains unclear whether
storms will reintensify Sunday afternoon ahead of the decayed
morning convection and possible related MCV that may develop. If
they do, then a focused area of severe risk may exist across
northern IL into southern Lower MI with a small bowing cluster.
Regardless, large hail should be the primary threat with initial
semi-discrete activity Sunday afternoon. Severe/damaging winds will
probably become more of a concern as storms grow upscale into
multiple clusters along the front Sunday evening/night. Given the
degree of instability forecast, at least an isolated threat for
severe wind gusts may persist across parts of the central Plains to
the OH Valley overnight. Finally, a risk for a few tornadoes may
exist along/south of the warm front as a southwesterly low-level jet
providing enhanced 0-1 km shear shifts eastward across the Midwest
into the southern Great Lakes and OH Valley regions through Sunday
night.

...Southeast...
Some form of a tropical cyclone should continue moving
east-northeastward across the Southeast on Sunday. Even though this
system will be inland and is expected to remain rather weak per
latest NHC forecast, 45-50+ kt winds around 850 mb should still be
present in the eastern half of the cyclone's circulation. Related
strong low-level shear combined with modest daytime heating will
probably continue to support an isolated severe threat from parts of
GA into the Carolinas through the period. Given the strength of the
low-level flow forecast, brief tornadoes and occasional strong/gusty
winds appear possible with any low-topped storms that can develop.

..Gleason.. 06/19/2021

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 191732
SWODY2
SPC AC 191730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST IA...NORTHERN IL...NORTHWEST IN...AND FAR SOUTHWEST
LOWER MI...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms may occur Sunday into Sunday night across
parts of the Midwest into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Large
hail, severe/damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes all appear
possible.

...Mid MO/Mid MS Valleys to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley...
Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Sunday
morning across the Mid MO Valley, remnant from evening/overnight
activity on Saturday. Guidance is in good agreement that this
cluster to continue northeastward throughout the day, although the
strength of the storms within this cluster as well as the speed of
its eastward progression are some what uncertain. Current
expectation is for storms within the cluster to gradually intensify
throughout the day, with some large hail and damaging wind gusts
occasionally possible, particularly as it moves across southern
Lower MI.

Outflow boundary left over from this cluster as well as the
approaching cold front will then become the main foci for convective
initiation during the evening across the Mid MS Valley. Moderate to
strong instability is anticipated in the vicinity of these
boundaries. Storms developing along the remnant outflow boundary
will likely have an initially cellular mode. Moderate mid-level
westerly flow will also be in place across the region, contributing
to moderate vertical shear and the potential for a few supercells.
Steep low-level lapse rates will likely promote an outflow-dominant
storm mode, with storms quickly transitioning to bowing line
segments. Storm outflows may eventually amalgamate into a more
coherent MCS structure, but confidence in organized MCS development
is currently low.

Primary threat with initial development will be large to very large
hail. Low-level shear appears strong enough to support a few
tornadoes if storms can remain discrete. After the initially
discrete mode, the transition to line segments will result in
damaging wind gusts becoming the main threat.

...Central Plains/Central High Plains...
Two scenarios will contribute to isolated severe thunderstorms
across the region on Sunday. The first is late afternoon
thunderstorm development in the vicinity of the Palmer Divide
southward to the lee of the Sangre De Cristo mountains in northeast
NM. In this area, high based storms moving off the high terrain may
contribute to isolated damaging wind gusts.

The second scenario is late evening/overnight thunderstorms expected
to develop in the wake of the surface cold front with the modest
ascent and mid-level moisture ahead of an approaching shortwave
trough. These storms will likely be based around 700 mb, but enough
vertical shear will exists between 700mb and the equilibrium level
for a few supercells.

...GA/NC/SC..
Some form of a tropical cyclone should continue moving
east-northeastward across the Southeast on Sunday. Even though this
system will be inland, 45-50+ kt winds around 850 mb should still be
present in the eastern half of the cyclone's circulation. Related
strong low-level shear combined with modest daytime heating will
probably continue to support an isolated severe threat from parts of
GA into the Carolinas through the period. Given the strength of the
low-level flow forecast, brief tornadoes and occasional strong/gusty
winds appear possible with any low-topped storms that can develop.

..Mosier.. 06/19/2021

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 200559
SWODY2
SPC AC 200558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur Monday from
parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic southwestward into the Ohio
Valley. Damaging wind gusts, severe hail, and perhaps a couple of
tornadoes all appear possible.

...Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic and the Ohio Valley...
A large-scale upper trough should continue to amplify while it moves
eastward across much of the central/eastern CONUS on Monday. A belt
of 40-60 kt southwesterly mid-level winds should accompany this
upper trough. A surface low initially over the northern Great Lakes
is forecast to develop northeastward into southern Ontario and
Quebec through the day. A trailing cold front should sweep generally east-southeastward across much of the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and
OH Valley through the period.

Low-level convergence along the cold front and a pre-frontal trough
should encourage convective development across these regions by
early Monday afternoon as ascent preceding the upper trough
overspreads the warm sector. A warm and moist low-level airmass is
expected to be in place, with surface dewpoints generally in the
upper 60s to low 70s. The development of around 1000-2000 J/kg of
MLCAPE appears probable by peak afternoon heating, with locally
higher values possible. Even though the strongest mid-level flow
associated with the upper trough may tend to lag the cold front
slightly, there will still be enough strengthening of the wind
profile with height to support about 30-40 kt of effective bulk
shear.

Accordingly, a mix of multicells and supercells appears possible
with initial development, with the supercell potential perhaps
maximized with northward extent into parts of NY/VT/NH/ME where the
deep-layer shear should be strongest. This area appears to have the
best potential for isolated severe hail given the more favorable
storm mode and cooler temperatures aloft. A couple tornadoes also
appear possible across this region as 100-200 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH
should exist as a 35-45 kt south-southwesterly jet shifts
northeastward across the Northeast through the day. With time, one
or more squall lines should progress eastward and pose mainly a
damaging wind threat across much of the interior Northeast and
Mid-Atlantic. Current expectations are for this convection to
gradually weaken Monday evening/night as it approaches the coast due
to the loss of daytime heating and increasing convective inhibition.


...Tennessee Valley into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern
Plains...
Scattered to numerous storms will likely develop along and ahead of
the south-southeastward moving cold front during the day. Mid-level
flow is forecast to be somewhat weaker from the TN Valley into the
lower MS Valley and southern Plains. But, it should still be
sufficient to support modest deep-layer shear and some convective
organization. Boundary-layer instability should generally be
stronger across these regions compared to locations farther to the
northeast. A mainly linear mode is expected, and strong to damaging
wind gusts should be the main threat as clusters of storms move south-southeastward through at least the early evening before
weakening. This isolated severe threat may persist into Monday night
across parts of TX, as a greater reservoir of instability will
likely exist over this region.

..Gleason.. 06/20/2021

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 201721
SWODY2
SPC AC 201720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OH
VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur Monday from
parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic southwestward into the Ohio
Valley. Damaging wind gusts, severe hail, and perhaps a couple of
tornadoes all appear possible.

...Synopsis...
Upper troughing is forecast to amplify as it moves eastward from the northern/central Plains through the Upper/Mid MS Valley and into the
Upper Great Lakes and Middle OH Valley. Enhanced mid-level flow
through the base of this upper trough will gradually strengthen
throughout the day, while also spreading eastward/southeastward into
more of OK/Arklatex, the OH Valley, and Lower Great Lakes.

At the surface, a low initially over the Upper Great Lakes region is
expected to deepen/mature as it ejects quickly northeastward into
Quebec. Expansive cold front attendant to this low will sweep eastward/southeastward across the southern Plains, mid MS Valley, OH
Valley, and much of the Northeast. This cold front will likely
extend from southern New England southwestward along the central
Appalachians and then back more west-southwestward through the Lower
MS Valley into TX Hill Country early Tuesday morning.

...Northeast into the Upper Ohio Valley...
Mid 60s to low 70s dewpoints are forecast to be in place across the
region ahead of the approaching cold front, supporting at least
moderate instability. Predominantly southerly flow is anticipated
ahead of the front, with some veering possible immediately ahead of
the front. As a result, convergence along the front itself will
likely be modest, but confluence within the broad and moist warm
sector should result in multiple convective bands along and ahead of
the front. Moderate mid-level flow is expected already be in place
over the region by early Monday, with some modest strengthening
possible throughout the day. Resultant vertical shear will support
some more organized storm structures. The more boundary parallel
shear vectors should support bowing line segments as the predominant
storm mode, with an attendant threat for damaging wind gusts as the
primary severe risk. Low-level shear does appear strong enough to
support brief tornadoes with any cells than can remain more
cellular/discrete. Hail could also occur with any more discrete
cells.

...Lower/Middle OH Valley into the Mid-South...
Thermodynamic conditions over this region are similar to those
farther north from the upper OH Valley into the Northeast. However,
the stronger mid-level flow will lag behind the front with storm
structures likely remaining outflow dominant. Storm outflow will
likely augment the front, resulting in a relatively progressive
boundary despite its displacement from the primary low. Progressive
nature of the front coupled with a boundary parallel vertical shear
vector will also result in updraft undercutting and relatively
short-duration updraft. These factors should mitigate the overall
severe risk, although isolated damaging wind gusts are still
possible.

...Arklatex into the southern Plains...
Outflow associated with overnight storms across KS on Sunday will
likely have augmented the front and pushed it southward into OK by
early Monday. Ample low-level moisture will be in place ahead of the
front, contributing to strong instability and the potential for
robust updrafts. However, weak shear should preclude organization
within these storms, resulting in outflow-dominant storm structures.
As the front/composite outflow continues southward, the potential
for damaging wind gusts will likely increase, owing to the strong
heating and steep low-level lapse rates, maximizing across the TX
Hill Country. Higher probabilities may be needed in later outlooks
once the frontal position becomes more apparent.

..Mosier.. 06/20/2021

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 211713
SWODY2
SPC AC 211712

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST...MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms may occur Tuesday across parts of
the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. Strong to damaging wind gusts should
be the main threat. Other isolated severe storms also appear
possible across parts of the Midwest into the central Plains, and
the Pacific Northwest.

...Mid-Atlantic/Coast Southeast...
An upper trough is forecast to cover much of the eastern CONUS early
Tuesday morning. Several embedded shortwave troughs are expected to
progress through this upper troughing, contributing to some
deamplification of the upper trough as well as a general eastward
movement. Southernmost embedded shortwave trough, beginning the
period over the central and southern Appalachians, will likely have
the largest impact on thunderstorm chances. The quick
eastward/northeastward progression of this system will help push a
cold front through the Mid-Atlantic and coastal Southeast States.

Air mass ahead of this cold front will be moist, buoyant, and weakly
sheared. This should result in mostly multicellular storm
structures, with updrafts/downdrafts that could occasionally become
strong enough to produce damaging wind gusts.

...Central Plains/Mid MO Valley..
Across the central CONUS, a weak frontal zone from the western Gulf
Coast into south TX will further diminish throughout the day as
strong moisture return occurs across the southern/central Plains. A
warm front is expected to develop/sharpen near where the leading
edge of this moisture return meets the more continental air mass in
the wake of upper trough.

Strong heating and low-level convergence in the vicinity of this
boundary (perhaps aided by a subtle shortwave trough) are expected
to result in thunderstorm initiation during the late afternoon. Only
modest buoyancy is anticipated, but southerly low-level flow veering
to relatively strong northwesterly flow aloft will result in enough
vertical shear for organized updrafts capable of large hail. Five
percent hail probabilities will be maintained with this outlook, but
higher probabilities may be needed in later outlook. Uncertainties
at this forecast range, including the extent of moisture return and
diurnal heating as well as the location of the strongest low-level
convergence, preclude the confidence needed for higher probabilities
at this forecast range.

...Pacific Northwest...
Low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to eject northeastward
through the far northwestern periphery of the upper ridging Tuesday
afternoon. Favorable timing of this shortwave coupled with
increasing mid-level moisture and strong diurnal heating should
result in afternoon thunderstorm development. Moderate deep-layer
vertical shear (i.e. 30-35 kt) should be enough for a few organized,
high-based storms capable of producing strong/gusty winds
approaching severe limits.

...Southern High Plains...
Northwesterly flow aloft will promote afternoon thunderstorms off
the high terrain and into the southern High Plains. Environment
across the southern High Plains will be well mixed, resulting in the
potential for damaging downbursts with any more robust storms.
However, overall coverage is too uncertain to introduce any
probabilities with this outlook.

..Mosier.. 06/21/2021

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 271706
SWODY2
SPC AC 271705

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1205 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF MAINE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern
Maine on Monday. Scattered thunderstorms are also likely from the
Southwest across the southern Plains into much of the Ohio Valley.

...Synopsis...

The overall upper pattern on Monday will remain stagnant and similar
to the previous few days. A subtropical high over the eastern U.S.
will maintain and very moist airmass to the east of an upper ridge
progressing slowly over the Plains and Upper Midwest. Further west,
upper ridging will maintain the ongoing heat wave over much of the
region. Widespread, diurnally driven thunderstorm activity will
encompass a large portion of the U.S., with some stronger storms
possible across parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes
vicinity as well as over parts of Maine.

...Maine...

Modest westerly flow is expected across the region with pockets of
30-35 kt 850-700 mb winds possible. A weak surface low will slowly
traverse eastward across Maine and New Brunswick, allowing a cold
front to sag southward. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints and
temperatures warming into the 80s will result in weak to moderate
instability. While lapse rates will remain poor, effective shear may
approach 30 kts and aid some organized cells during peak heating.
Steep low level lapse rates will support stronger downdrafts and a
few strong/locally damaging gusts are possible.

...Mid-Mississippi Valley to Lower Michigan...

Weak low level convergence along the western periphery of the
subtropical high and the upper trough over the Plains will result in bands/clusters of storms across the region. While a warm and moist
airmass will support weak to moderate instability, poor lapse rates
and weak shear ultimately will result in poorly organized
convection. Nevertheless, high PW values and storm-scale
interactions could result in sporadic strong gusts. At this time,
the overall threat appears too transient/unorganized to include
severe probabilities.

..Leitman.. 06/27/2021

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 281653
SWODY2
SPC AC 281651

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 AM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WI AND MI
INTO NORTHERN IL/IN/OH...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes Region on Tuesday.

...Great Lakes Vicinity...

An upper shortwave trough will migrate eastward across the Great
Lakes on Tuesday. West/southwesterly midlevel flow will increase in
response, with 30-40 kt forecast around 700-500 mb over WI/MI and
northern portions of IL/IN/OH. Cooling aloft will result in modest
midlevel lapse rates across parts of WI/Upper MI. Aided by surface
dewpoints in the low to mid 60s F, weak to moderate instability is
forecast amid 25-35 kt effective shear. This could support briefly
organized cells/bowing segments capable of strong wind gusts.

Further south toward northern IL/IN/OH and Lower MI, stronger
heating and dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 F will result in
stronger instability. However, midlevel lapse rates will remain poor
and effective shear more marginal compared to further
north/northwest. Nevertheless, high PW values amid adequate
shear/instability and steeper low level lapse rates could support
sporadic strong/locally damaging wind gusts through early evening.

...AZ...

Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop near the higher
terrain of the Mogollon Rim during the afternoon/evening amid
increasing midlevel moisture. Weak shear and modest
instability/lapse rates will limit longevity of more intense
updrafts, but a well-mixed boundary layer with inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles suggest strong downburst winds are possible.
Storm coverage is expected to remain sparse and in the absence of
stronger shear/instability, the overall threat limited, precluding
severe probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 06/28/2021

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 301729
SWODY2
SPC AC 301728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CHESAPEAKE BAY
VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across
portions of the Mid-Atlantic States Thursday afternoon.

...Mid-Atlantic states...
A mid/upper-level trough over Ontario/Great Lakes will move
southeast to the central Appalachians during the period. Showers
and a few thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Thursday morning over
the middle/upper OH Valley eastward into the Alleghenies. As the
airmass to the east of this activity heats/destabilizes during the
late morning into the afternoon, storms are expected to
preferentially develop on the eastern outflow. Increasing
large-scale ascent will likely favor scattered to numerous
thunderstorms developing from eastern PA southwestward into the
central Appalachians by mid afternoon. As this activity moves into
the Chesapeake Bay vicinity with 35-40 kt in the 700-500 mb layer,
richer low-level moisture and steepened 0-2 km lapse rates may lead
to a slightly greater concentration of 50-65 mph gusts capable of
widely scattered wind damage. The severe risk will likely lessen
with southward extent across far southeast VA where flow fields will
be weaker.

...South-central High Plains...
Moist profiles in wake of overnight or early-day convection and
considerable cloudiness will likely limit the degree of heating than
would otherwise occur. A belt of modest westerly mid- to high-level
flow on the northern periphery of a mid-level anticyclone may result
in a zone of modest deep-layer shear atop weak surface flow with an
easterly component. However, considerable uncertainty remains
regarding convective influence from today through early Thursday,
and sub-par 700-500 mb lapse rates will also act to limit overall
storm vigor such that a less-than-5 percent probability highlight is
maintained this outlook update.

..Smith.. 06/30/2021

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 160657
SWODY2
SPC AC 160655

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts
of western, central and northwest Texas from Sunday evening through
daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and possibly a
tornado or two.

...Southern High Plains...
A mid-level low and an associated trough will move into northern
Mexico on Sunday, reaching the southern High Plains Sunday night.
Ahead of the trough, strong moisture advection will occur across the
southern Plains. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase in the
50s F across parts of west and northwest Texas, and into the 60s F
across much of west-central and north-central Texas. A large area of
convection is expected to develop by early Sunday evening ahead of
the trough from southeast New Mexico into parts of far west and
west-central Texas. This will occur as a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet strengthens across the southern High Plains. Aided by strong
large-scale ascent, and a rapid low-level jet response, scattered
strong to severe storms are expected to develop over parts of the
southern High Plains. Model forecasts are in relatively good
agreement, showing potential for MCS development late Sunday evening
into Sunday night.

Although instability will remain weak ahead of the system, a steady
ramp up of instability and low-level moisture is expected over the
southern Plains. Between 03Z and 09Z on Sunday evening, ECMWF
forecast soundings increase MLCAPE into the 500 to 1000 J/kg range
over parts of west-central and northwest Texas. This suggests that
the severe threat that develops with the MCS should continue into
the overnight period. The current thinking is that a line of strong
to severe storms will become organized and move across west-central
and northwest Texas from late Sunday evening into the overnight. The
primary mode is expected to be linear, although isolated discrete
supercells, with tornado potential, may develop ahead of the line.
Otherwise, the primary threat should be for severe gusts along the
leading edge of a quasi-linear convective system. The severe threat
may continue to the end of the period, as a band of focused
large-scale ascent couples with a strong low-level jet to maintain
strong convective development with the MCS.

..Broyles.. 11/16/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 170655
SWODY2
SPC AC 170654

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a
tornado will be possible across parts of north Texas and southern
Oklahoma Monday morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is
expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and
evening from the eastern parts of the southern and central Plains
eastward into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley.

...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley...
A negatively-tilted mid-level trough is forecast to be in the
southern High Plains at the start of the period. A squall-line is
expected to be ongoing ahead of the trough at 12Z from central and
north Texas into southern Oklahoma. Along the leading edge of this
organized linear MCS, a wind-damage threat is expected Monday
morning. A tornado will also be possible with any rotating element
within the line. The line is expected to weaken by midday as the
mid-level trough moves away to the northeast, with the associated
low moving into the central Plains. As surface heating takes place,
additional thunderstorms are expected to develop during the
afternoon across parts of the southern and central Plains. Isolated
severe gusts and hail will be possible with the stronger cells.
Ahead of the trough, an isolated wind-damage and/or tornado threat
may develop across the lower Missouri Valley and Ozarks during the
late afternoon. The severe threat is expected to be marginal due to
very weak instability.

...Sabine Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley...
In the wake of the mid-level trough, southwesterly mid-level flow
will be in place across the western Gulf Coast states on Monday. A
moist and unstable airmass is forecast to move from far southeast
Texas late Monday afternoon into southern Louisiana during the
evening. Thunderstorms will likely develop across much of the Lower
Mississippi Valley, as low-level flow increases in the evening.
Model consensus suggests that MCS development will be likely across
parts of the lower Mississippi Valley. A relatively large number of
storms should help to overturn much of the airmass. Also, the
stronger mid-level flow is forecast to remain well to the north,
suggesting that any wind-damage threat associated with the MCS
should be marginal.

..Broyles.. 11/17/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 180634
SWODY2
SPC AC 180633

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a
tornado will be possible across parts of the central Gulf states on Tuesday.

...Central Gulf Coast States...
Southwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place over much of the
Southeast on Tuesday, as a cold front advances eastward into the
region. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front in the
Gulf Coast states, with surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to lower
70s F. As surface heating takes place during the day, thunderstorm
development is expected from near the front eastward across the much
of the moist sector. Although instability will be weak, strong
low-level flow will aid convective development, and a few severe
storms will be possible. The greatest severe threat will exist in
the vicinity of the central Gulf Coast, where the combination of
low-level shear and moisture may be enough for an isolated tornado threat.

..Broyles.. 11/18/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 190551
SWODY2
SPC AC 190550

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is not expected on Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms
are most likely over parts of Florida and the Carolinas, and along
the coastal Pacific Northwest.

...Synopsis...
On Wednesday, a deep upper trough will extend from a low over
northern MN southward toward the Ozarks, and will pivot northeast
across the OH Valley and Midwestern states, becoming negatively
tilted. A tight midlevel temperature gradient and 130 kt speed max
will relax somewhat through 00Z. Then, a secondary strong speed max
will develop overnight from the mid MS Valley into the southern
Appalachians.

Meanwhile, an upper ridge will gradually move east toward the
Rockies, with resulting northwest flow regime across the Plains.

At the surface, high pressure will be entrenched from the Rockies
into the central and southern Plains, and extending into the Gulf of
Mexico where strong offshore flow will exist. A low will develop
near Lake Erie during the day, with the cold front pushing into the
Mid Atlantic to the Carolinas late in the day.

...Carolinas...
Low-level moisture with 60s F dewpoints will spread north across the
eastern Carolinas and into southeast VA through 00Z ahead of the
cold front. Deep-layer shear will increase as the upper trough
swings east, with very weak instability developing.

Forecast soundings indicate poor low-level lapse rates/heating, with substantial midlevel drying. In addition, a prominent subsidence
inversion is present in several model depictions. Given a lack of
appreciable low-level flow fields to support wind gusts, strong
storms are not expected.

...Florida...
Area of thunderstorms are forecast over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
early on Wednesday, with a plume of instability ahead of a cold
front. While some of this activity will move across the Peninsula,
it appears the boundary layer will be relatively cool. As such,
despite the moderate low-level SRH during the morning along the
western coasts, most of it should be rendered in-effective.

...Ohio and Vicinity...
A very strong vorticity maximum will travel east across IN, OH, the
upper OH Valley and into western PA and Lake Erie on Wednesday.
Large-scale ascent will be strong, with rapidly cooling temperatures
aloft. Shallow convection may develop with limited heating along the
cold front, which will itself result in gusty winds with 30 kt
ambient flow just off the surface. While severe storms are unlikely,
a flash or two cannot be ruled out given such cool temperatures
aloft.

...Coastal Pacific Northwest...
Strong cooling aloft on the north size of a midlevel temperature
gradient will exist over northwest OR into western WA with a slowly
weakening midlevel jet. Weak low-level CAPE will develop mainly over
the water. However, some cams show low-topped storms possibly moving
ashore, and wind shear will be strong. While locally strong gusts
cannot be ruled out, the severe risk appears low at this time.

..Jewell.. 11/19/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 210614
SWODY2
SPC AC 210612

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible along the Pacific Northwest Coast
on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A large, deep upper low will exist over the northeast Friday
morning, and will gradually weaken as it drifts east through the
period. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will slowly shift east from the
Rockies into the Plains, while yet another trough pushes across the
Pacific Northwest region late.

Substantial northwest surface winds will maintain relatively stable
conditions from the Plains to the East Coast, with no instability
forecast over much of the CONUS.

The exception will be again along the coastal counties of WA and OR,
as strong cooling aloft occurs. Scattered low-topped convection will
be most likely over the ocean overnight. A few thunderstorms may
move onshore, but at this time the stronger shear farther north does
not appear to overlap with the minimal instability required for a
severe threat.

..Jewell.. 11/21/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 220541
SWODY2
SPC AC 220539

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the CONUS Saturday.

...Synopsis...
On Saturday, a large upper trough will move out of the northeastern
states, with a weak upper ridge moving across the Plains and toward
the MS Valley. To the west, a large upper trough will continue
eastward across the Great Basin and much of the central and northern
Rockies. A lead wave will likely pivot northeastward toward the
Dakotas late.

At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist from the
southern Plains into the Southeast, maintaining stable conditions.
Low pressure will exist ahead of a cold front from the eastern Great
Basin into the northern High Plains by late in the day.

A low chance of a few lightning flashes may exist along the coastal
Pacific Northwest where cold temperatures aloft may result in weak
buoyancy. Otherwise, minimal activity will be possible over parts of
central ID and vicinity as lapse rates steepen.

..Jewell.. 11/22/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 230548
SWODY2
SPC AC 230546

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the USA Sunday.

...Synopsis...
On Sunday, an upper trough will depart the northeastern states as an
elongated mid/upper level speed max extends across the Four Corners
states and into the Plains. This feature will phase with an upper
low/trough extending from southern SK/MB into the northern Plains,
with ridging over the East.

A low pressure trough will exist ahead of the cold front from the
upper MS Valley into the southern High Plains around 00Z, extending
from Lower MI into northern TX by 12Z Monday.

Ahead of this front, southerly winds will result in a batch of low
60s F dewpoints from eastern TX toward AR, but the air mass should
remain capped with little of any convection along the intersecting
cold front.

Elsewhere, cool air aloft will remain over much of the northwestern
states, with little if any instability to support thunderstorms.

..Jewell.. 11/23/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 240553
SWODY2
SPC AC 240551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible late Monday into Monday night
from the Sabine Valley into parts of the Mid-South.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A strong shortwave trough will take on a negative tilt as it sweeps
across the upper MS Valley on Monday, and across the upper Great
Lakes overnight. Behind this system, a broad fetch of strong flow
aloft will extend westward across the Plains and to another wave
moving across the Pacific NW and toward the western Great Basin.

In association with the leading wave, a surface low will be located
over Lower MI during the day, with a cold front extending
southwestward across the OH, Lower MS, and Sabine Valleys at 00Z.
This front will progress to a southern Appalachians to northwest
Gulf of Mexico line by 12Z Tuesday.

Ahead of this front, weak instability will develop as 60s F
dewpoints spread northeastward across LA, MS, and nosing into AL and
western TN. Much of the instability will be elevated in nature,
especially on the northern end of the moist plume. Even farther
southwest into LA, MLCAPE should only reach about 500 J/kg.

Forecast soundings are not particularly favorable for even general thunderstorms with a capping inversion noted. Still, deepening lift
along the front and non-zero instability may result in isolated weak thunderstorms along the front.

..Jewell.. 11/24/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 250549
SWODY2
SPC AC 250547

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
Thunderstorm chances will be minimal across the CONUS on Tuesday, as
a negative-tilt shortwave trough moves into Quebec, and a cold front
progresses across the remainder of the Southeast.

Showers may linger along the front from the southern Appalachians to
the Mid Atlantic Tuesday morning, and a lighting flash or two cannot
be ruled out over the southern AL to GA portion of the front.
However, any convection should be short lived.

Behind this initial system, the flow regime will become zonal into
Wed morning, though a new trough may start to amplify across the
Four Corners states. At that time, instability sufficient for
thunderstorms appears unlikely.

..Jewell.. 11/25/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 300634
SWODY2
SPC AC 300633

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A large upper-level low centered over Ontario/Quebec provinces will
persist through Sunday, with an expansive area of cyclonic flow
across much of the central and eastern CONUS and a ridge over the
western states. Surface high pressure from the Plains states into
southeast U.S. will reinforce generally dry/stable conditions. With
the exception of portions of deep South Texas, appreciable low-level moisture/instability will remain offshore Sunday and Sunday night.

A sporadic lightning strike will be possible in association with
lake-effect snow bands in the lee of Lakes Ontario and Erie, but
overall coverage should remain limited.

..Bunting.. 11/30/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 301716
SWODY2
SPC AC 301714

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A broad large-scale trough will persist across the eastern half of
the CONUS, while an expansive continental polar air mass is
reinforced from the northern Plains into the Southeast. Accompanying
the large-scale trough, cold midlevel temperatures above the
relatively warmer Great Lakes will contribute to steep lapse rates
and weak instability. An isolated lightning flash cannot be ruled
out within the stronger lake-effect snow bands downwind of Lake
Ontario and possibly over Lake Huron, though coverage appears too
limited for General Thunderstorm highlights.

Farther south, ample boundary-layer moisture in the vicinity of a
weak frontal-wave low off the Lower TX Coast will support isolated thunderstorms during the overnight hours, though most of this
activity should remain offshore.

..Weinman.. 11/30/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 010503
SWODY2
SPC AC 010501

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2024

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across south
Texas. Severe storms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A dry, continental polar air mass will be in place across the CONUS
on Monday. The only exception is across far south Texas. Easterly
flow will strengthen across the Gulf on Sunday night and Monday as a
strong anticyclone moves into the central CONUS. This will cause mid
to upper 60s dewpoints to advect inland across far south Texas.
Meager instability may develop which could result in a few isolated thunderstorms. However, this is more likely offshore where somewhat
greater instability is likely.

..Bentley.. 12/01/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 020702
SWODY2
SPC AC 020701

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CST Mon Dec 02 2024

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the Texas Coast and into
portions of East Texas. No severe thunderstorms are expected.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will move off the east coast on Tuesday.
Surface high pressure will progress east in its wake with a strong
anticyclone moving from the Ozarks to the southern Appalachians
through the weekend.

Easterly flow across the Gulf of Mexico on the southern periphery of
the anticyclone will result in some moisture making it inland across
far south Texas. A few thunderstorms will be possible along the
immediate coastal areas during the morning and early afternoon
hours. As low-level flow becomes southerly and strengthens somewhat,
moisture advection around 1 km will result in increasing elevated
instability. A few elevated thunderstorms are possible in this
warm-air advection regime early Wednesday morning.

..Bentley.. 12/02/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 030636
SWODY2
SPC AC 030634

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible from East Texas into the ArkLaMiss
on Wednesday. No severe thunderstorms are expected.

...Synopsis...
A large, upper-level trough will move into southern Ontario and the
Great Lakes Region on Wednesday with a very strong mid-level jet
along the western periphery of this trough. As this occurs, a
compact low-level jet is forecast to develop across east Texas and
move into Louisiana and far western Mississippi during the evening
and overnight hours. As low-level southerly flow increases across
east Texas, low-level moisture will lead to modest elevated
instability (500 to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE). Scattered thunderstorms are
possible across this region for much of the period. However,
instability appears too weak too warrant any substantial severe
weather threat.

..Bentley.. 12/03/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 040651
SWODY2
SPC AC 040649

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across parts of south Texas and the
central Gulf Coast. No severe thunderstorms are expected.

...Synopsis...
A cold front will sharpen and advance south into the Gulf of Mexico
during the day Thursday. A few thunderstorms are possible along the
Louisiana coast where some mid 60s dewpoints and marginal
instability will be present before the front moves offshore. The
front is expected to stall across far South Texas where isolated
thunderstorms will be possible during the day and perhaps into the
overnight hours as weak ascent arrives ahead of an approaching
mid-level trough.

..Bentley.. 12/04/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 050657
SWODY2
SPC AC 050655

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from southeast New
Mexico to central Texas. No severe thunderstorms are expected.

...Synopsis...
On Friday, a mid-level trough will slowly drift eastward along the Arizona/Mexico border. Stronger mid-level flow will round the base
of this trough Friday afternoon and emerge into the southern Plains
Friday night and early Saturday. Some moisture return will occur
above the surface front which will result in weak instability across
Texas and perhaps into southeast New Mexico. As stronger mid-level
flow emerges across the southern Plains, isolated to scattered
elevated thunderstorms are possible from southeast New Mexico and
Far West Texas, to parts of central Texas. However, weak instability
should keep any severe weather threat limited.

..Bentley.. 12/05/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 060636
SWODY2
SPC AC 060634

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are likely across a large portion of Texas
on Saturday. No severe thunderstorms are expected.

...Synopsis...
A southern-stream upper low is forecast to begin the period over the AZ/NM/Mexico border intersection vicinity before progressing
northeastward through the southern High Plains throughout the
period. Enhanced mid-level flow will accompany this low, spreading
eastward across the southern Plains. Low-level flow across the
southern Plains will also increase ahead of this system, resulting
in strengthening warm-air advection throughout the day.

Surface easterlies are expected across the Gulf of Mexico, but a
stationary boundary along the TX Coast will prevent inland
penetration of any notable low-level moisture. Even so, moderate
mid-level moisture and increasing large-scale lift ahead of the
approaching upper low will result in a large area of precipitation.
Cooling mid-level temperatures may help support modest buoyancy,
with isolated thunderstorms expected within the larger precipitation
shield. The probability of any severe thunderstorms is very low.

..Mosier.. 12/06/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 070652
SWODY2
SPC AC 070650

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible from southeast Texas into the Lower
Mississippi Valley and Mid-South on Sunday. The probability for
severe thunderstorms is very low.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Upper low expected to be over the TX Panhandle early Sunday is
forecast to devolve into an open wave as it progresses northeastward
across OK and the Ozarks into the Mid MS Valley. Enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow will accompany this system, spreading from the
southern Plains across the Mid/Lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and
Southeast as the wave moves northeastward. Strengthening low-level
jet is anticipated ahead of this system as well. This jet will
likely be located over east TX late Sunday afternoon before evolving
quickly northeastward and ending the period from central AL into
eastern KY.

Progression of this system will displace it north of the more
favorable low-level moisture, which will be confined to the upper TX
Coast early Sunday before advecting northeastward into more of the
Lower MS Valley/Mid-South throughout the day. Warm-air advection
across this moistening warm sector and modest buoyancy may result in
elevated thunderstorms embedded within the larger precipitation
shield. Deep-layer vertical shear will be strong and there is a very
low probability that a storm or two could become strong enough to
produce small hail, particularly across northern LA and southern AR.
However, the limited buoyancy should keep the overall severe
potential low.

..Mosier.. 12/07/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 080655
SWODY2
SPC AC 080653

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into
much of the Southeast States on Monday. The probability for severe thunderstorms is low.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
The upper pattern is forecast to undergo significant amplification
on Monday, resulting in a deep upper trough that is expected to
extend across much of the CONUS by Tuesday morning. The initial
evolution of this upper trough will begin as a shortwave trough
moves through the Great Basin into the Southwest while another moves
from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes and Ontario.

A surface low attendant to the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes
shortwave trough will move eastward just ahead of its parent
shortwave. As it does, an associated cold front will push
southeastward through the Mid MS and the Lower OH Valleys, and the
southern Plains. A secondary low is forecast to develop along the
front across north TX, before then moving eastward and ending the
period over northern LA/west-central MS.

This overall evolution will encourage the development of a broad
warm sector across the Lower MS Valley and Southeast, with dewpoints
likely reaching the mid 60s before the front moves through. A broad
area of precipitation is anticipated within this warm sector
throughout the day, but buoyancy will be minimized by poor lapse
rates and relatively warm profiles. Initially strong low-level flow
will weaken throughout the day before then increasing again Monday
night ahead of the front. This will lengthen low-level hodographs,
with low-level shear high enough to support severe potential.
Localized severe potential may exist near the surface low as it
moves across the ArkLaMiss vicinity late Monday night. However,
minimal buoyancy will remain in place, with surface stability
potentially persisting as well. These factors suggest the overall
severe threat will remain low, precluding the need for any
probabilities.

..Mosier.. 12/08/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 090659
SWODY2
SPC AC 090658

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent
Florida Panhandle on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
Deep upper troughing is forecast to extend from central CA into the Southwest/northern Mexico Tuesday. This troughing will be anchored
by a shortwave trough expected to move from the southern
High Plains eastward across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley. Progression of this shortwave will foster a more neutral tilt to the
parent upper troughing while also significantly strengthening the
mid-level flow through its eastern periphery. A belt of 100-120 kt
500 mb flow will likely extend from AL into the central Appalachians
early Wednesday morning.

A surface low initially near the ArkLaMiss region is expected to
move quickly northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley, with some
guidance showing secondary cyclogenesis later in the period along
the trailing cold front that will move across the Southeast.

...Southeast...
A moderately moist warm sector will precede the front forecast to
move across the region, with dewpoints increasing into the mid 60s
by the afternoon across central AL/GA and the FL Panhandle. Modest
secondary cyclogenesis appears possible along the front as it moves
through central AL and intersects slightly greater returning
low-level moisture. Buoyancy will remain modest, mitigated by poor
lapse rates and relatively warm profiles, but vertical shear will be
strong (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear greater than 50 kt) and supportive of organization with any deeper, more persistent updrafts. These deeper
updrafts appear most probable within the warm sector near the
developing secondary surface low (i.e. central/southern AL into
southwest GA and the adjacent FL Panhandle) during the late
afternoon. Any sustained cells/clusters within this environment
could pose a threat of isolated damaging gusts and possibly a
tornado. A gradually narrowing warm sector will likely limit the
northern and eastern extent of the severe threat, though a strong
storm or two cannot be ruled out from north AL/GA into
middle/eastern TN.

...GA/north FL in the Carolinas and Outer Banks late Tuesday night
into early Wednesday morning...
A strong south-southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop
from Georgia through the eastern Carolinas late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning, in response to the intensifying shortwave trough
moving into the Southeast. Warm-air advection associated with this
jet coupled with strengthening large-scale ascent is expected to
result in increasingly broad area of precipitation across the
region. Surface-based storms appears unlikely within this
environment, but robust wind fields could still support a strong
gust or two.

Greater low-level moisture may advect into the NC Outer Banks
vicinity early Wednesday morning, with low-level and deep-layer
shear increasing across the region as well. Any surface-based storms
could have some severe potential. However, guidance differs on how
far the mid 60s dewpoints penetrate inland, which, given the warm
mid-level temperatures, currently limits the predictability of
surface-based storms.

..Mosier.. 12/09/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 100657
SWODY2
SPC AC 100656

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NC
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible along and ahead
of a cold front from eastern North Carolina into southern New
England on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A deep upper trough is expected to extend from central Canada
southward along the length of the MS Valley into the western Gulf
early Wednesday morning. A shortwave trough embedded within the base
of this larger troughing is forecast to move quickly northeastward
from the Lower MS Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. In response, the
parent upper troughing will shift eastward while also deamplifying.
Strong mid/upper flow is anticipated throughout the eastern
periphery of this troughing, with a 100-110 kt 500 mb jet shifting northeastward from the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic throughout
the day.

An associated surface low will deepen as it moves northeastward from
northern VA through the Hudson Valley into NH/VT. An attendant cold
front is forecast to sharpens as it moves quickly eastward, moving
off the East Coast by Wednesday evening.

...Eastern North Carolina to southern New England...
Low to mid 60s dewpoints are expected to advect northward into the
Carolinas and northern Mid-Atlantic States ahead of the approaching
cold front, with mid to upper 50s possible farther north into
southern New England. These dewpoints will support modest buoyancy,
with the overall buoyancy tempered by poor mid-level lapse rates and
widespread precipitation. Even so, a strongly forced convective line
is still expected to develop along the front as it moves quickly
eastward across the region during the afternoon. Deeper convection
is anticipated in this line when increasing large-scale ascent
aligns with the low-level forcing along the front. Guidance differs
on when and where this occurs, with some guidance suggesting it
occurs primarily offshore. Even so, there is still enough potential
for this occur onshore to maintain probabilities for strong gusts.
Expectation is for this deeper convection to combine with the robust
kinematic fields to provide a large reservoir of high-momentum air
capable of mixing down to the surface. Given the strength of the
forcing, this potential exists as far north across southern New
England where buoyancy is expected to be very low.

Additionally, some potential exists for surface-based storms within
the warm sector ahead of the front, provided that antecedent
precipitation does not entirely stabilize the low levels. Some
guidance suggests a pre-frontal band of surface-based storms
develops with low-level confluence within the warm sector over
coastal NC and the Outer Banks.

..Mosier.. 12/10/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 110624
SWODY2
SPC AC 110622

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
In the wake of a strong shortwave trough moving into the Canadian
Maritimes, a mid/upper cyclone is forecast to progress from the
Ontario/Quebec border vicinity eastward through Quebec on Thursday.
Strong mid-level flow throughout the base of this cyclone is
expected to extend from the northern/central Plains through the
Northeast. Even with these strong dynamics, extensive surface
ridging is expected from the northern Plains into much of the
eastern CONUS, promoting dry and stable conditions. Consequently, no thunderstorms are anticipated.

Farther west, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to
progress across the Great Basin into the Four Corners region while
enhanced mid-level westerly flow associated with it spreads from
southern CA across the Southwest. Some modified moisture return is
anticipated across south TX late Thursday night/early Friday
morning, but this will remain well downstream of the shortwave
trough. As such, the lack of moisture/buoyancy ahead of this
shortwave will preclude thunderstorm development.

..Mosier.. 12/11/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 120656
SWODY2
SPC AC 120655

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Four
Corners before continuing eastward across the central Rockies and
ending the period as a closed cyclone over the central Plains. An
associated surface low is expected to move quickly northeastward
just ahead of this shortwave, progressing from the northeast
NM/southeast CO vicinity into eastern KS. As it does, an attendant
cold front will push eastward across the southern High Plains and
western KS.

Modified moisture return is anticipated within the strong low to
mid-level flow preceding this shortwave and its attendant cold
front. Low 60s dewpoints will likely reach north Texas by
early Saturday morning but the mid 60s dewpoints are expected to
remain confined to the TX Coastal Plain. A strengthening low-level
jet and associated warm-air advection over the pre-frontal warm
sector (from southeast TX into the Lower MO Valley) is forecast to
result in elevated thunderstorms from Friday evening through
Saturday morning. Poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy, with the
expectation that most updrafts will be weak and transient. Strong
vertical shear (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear around 50 kt) may support
small hail within the deepest, most persistent updrafts.

..Mosier.. 12/12/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 130555
SWODY2
SPC AC 130554

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2024

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

...Central/South-Central States...

An upper cyclone and attendant trough will lift east/northeast from
the central/southern Plains toward the Great Lakes on Saturday. Only
a weak reflection of this upper system is expected at the surface,
where a low over eastern KS during the morning hours will generally
weaken as it lifts northeast into the Upper Midwest. Southerly
low-level flow will transport 60s F surface dewpoints into the TX
coast and east TX and the Sabine Valley vicinity through evening.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this low-level warm
advection regime ahead of the upper trough and weakening surface low
from east TX/LA into the Lower and Mid-MS Valley. A strong storm or
two may be possible across southeast TX into LA where deeper
boundary-layer moisture and modest surface-based destabilization
will overlap with weak vertical shear. However, large-scale ascent
will remain weak as large-scale ascent remains displaced to the
north. Additionally, low and midlevel lapse rates will remain poor.
Overall severe potential is expected to remain negligible, and
thunderstorm activity across the region should diminish during the
evening hours.

...Pacific Coast States...

Persistent onshore flow is forecast through the evening hours as an
upper trough located offshore the Pacific coast Saturday morning
moves inland toward the Rockies by Sunday morning. Isolated
thunderstorms are expected, especially during the 12-18z time frame
when large-scale ascent will be maximized amid steepening midlevel
lapse rates. A strong southwesterly low-level jet will overspread
portions of central CA during the morning to midday time period,
resulting in some hodograph curvature. However, cool surface
temperatures and very modest instability (generally less than 200
J/kg MLCAPE) will likely limit surface-based convection.

..Leitman.. 12/13/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 150621
SWODY2
SPC AC 150619

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Monday.

...TX/OK/MO to the Lower MS Valley...

An upper trough over the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest
Monday morning will weaken as it shifts east/northeast across the
Great Lakes. The strongest deep-layer southwesterly flow associated
with this system will mainly be focused over the Mid/Lower MO and
Mid-MS Valleys into the Great Lakes. Though, modest vertical shear
will extend as far south as eastern OK and the Ozarks into the
ArkLaTex vicinity. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to
extend from southeast MO into southeast OK and northwest Texas
Monday morning. This front will track east/southeast through the
period, becoming positioned from the TN Valley toward the ArkLaTex
and central TX by Tuesday morning.

Ahead of the front, upper 50s to mid 60s dewpoints will be
maintained by south/southwesterly low-level flow from central TX
toward the MO Bootheel and the Lower MS Valley. Scattered elevated thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing from eastern OK into southern
MO and parts of AR. Additional convection will develop near the southeast-advancing cold front as far northeast as the Lower OH
Valley and southeast into central TX and the ArkLaTex/Lower MS
Valley through the period.

Stronger large-scale ascent and vertical shear will remain focused
north, and out of phase with, the area of better low-level moisture
across the south-central states. A couple of stronger storms may
produce small hail early in the period from eastern OK toward the MO
Bootheel. However, low-level inhibition and poor low-level lapse
rates are expected to limit surface-based instability. Deep-layer
flow parallel to the surface boundary, limited surface-based
instability, and weakening shear/ascent with southward extent,
should limit overall severe potential on Monday.

..Leitman.. 12/15/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 160633
SWODY2
SPC AC 160631

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are expected from the southern Plains to the Lower
Ohio and Tennessee Valley vicinities and across Florida on Tuesday. Severe-thunderstorm chances are low at this time.

...Eastern OK/ArkLaTex/Ozarks Vicinity...

An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS
Valley vicinity on Tuesday. A 500 mb jet max around 50-70 kt will
become oriented from eastern OK into the Ohio Valley/lower Great
Lakes area after 06z, and stronger height falls are not expected to
overspread the region until the nighttime hours. At the surface, 50s
to low/mid 60s F dewpoints are expected across south/east TX into
the Mid-South vicinity. A strong cold front will track southeast
across KS/OK during the evening, and by 06z be positioned from
northern AR into southeast OK and north-central TX. This boundary
will become a focus for increasing isentropic ascent and isolated to
scattered thunderstorms during the overnight/early Wednesday period.

Neutral height tendencies will likely suppress convection during the
day across much of the area. As convection develops along the
advancing cold front overnight, uncertainty remains regarding any
surface-based instability overlapping with stronger vertical shear
(which decreases rapidly with southward extent). Forecast soundings
vary across forecast guidance, but at least weak elevated
instability is expected driven by cooling aloft. Stronger elevated
cores could produce small hail, given forecast lapse rates around
6.8-7 C/km amid 30+ kt effective shear magnitudes (especially from
southeast OK into AR). Overall, severe potential appears quite
conditional for the last 3-6 hours of the forecast period. Will hold
off on including low-end hail probabilities, though a Marginal
(level 1 of 5) risk may be needed in later outlooks depending on
forecast trends.

...FL Peninsula...

Isolated thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday as a moist airmass
and at least weak instability overspread the region. Onshore,
easterly low-level flow will provide convergence along an inverted
surface trough. Given sufficient destabilization, this will support
development of thunderstorms moving onshore through evening. Weak
0-6 km bulk shear (less than 20 kt) will preclude organized
convection, and severe storms are not expected.

..Leitman.. 12/16/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 170632
SWODY2
SPC AC 170631

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible from the lower Ohio Valley southwest into northeast/central Texas early on Wednesday and across the Southeast,
Carolinas, and Florida Wednesday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...

A positively tilted upper trough will develop east across the
eastern U.S. on Wednesday. Moderate mid/upper level southwesterly
flow ahead of the trough will overspread the OH/TN Valleys into the
Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic regions. At the surface, a cold front
will extend from southern OH to southeast AR to central TX at the
beginning of the period. This front will develop southeast across
the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, mostly moving offshore from the Gulf
and Atlantic coasts by Thursday morning.

...Northeast TX to the TN Valley...

Showers and elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the
surface cold front Wednesday morning. Forecast soundings show poor
low-level lapse rates and little surface-based instability. However,
up to 500 J/kg MUCAPE will be present, courtesy of cool midlevel
temperatures and modest midlevel lapse rates. Deep-layer flow is
forecast to remain mostly unidirectional and parallel to the front,
suggesting convective undercutting by the boundary/outflows. While
some briefly organized structure may persist the first hour or two
of the forecast period, convection is expected to rapidly decrease
in intensity with southeast extent across the TN Valley/Gulf Coast
states. This is largely due to more modest boundary-layer moisture
and weakening vertical shear across MS/AL.

...FL/GA/Carolinas...

Isentropic ascent ahead of the approaching upper trough/surface
front will increase across the region through day. However,
large-scale ascent will remain weak until late, with the vorticity
maxima trailing well behind the surface front. Nevertheless, showers
and isolated thunderstorms will be possible within the low-level
warm-advection regime, especially during the afternoon/early
evening. Forecast guidance varies in the depiction of the low-level thermodynamics and degree of destabilization. Though some support
for an organized storm or two is plausible, given around 750-1000
J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear magnitudes around 20-30 kt. While a
strong storm could produce gusty winds or even small hail (given
somewhat elongated/straight hodographs and cool midlevel temps),
forecast confidence regarding severe potential remains fairly low.
Will refrain from introducing low-end/Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk probabilities at this time, though an outlook area may be required
in subsequent outlooks.

..Leitman.. 12/17/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 180550
SWODY2
SPC AC 180549

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CST Tue Dec 17 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Florida...

A shortwave upper trough within the area of broader eastern CONUS
troughing will be oriented from the Carolinas to the northeast Gulf
of Mexico Thursday morning. This system will shift east across FL
and offshore the Atlantic coast through 00z. At the surface, a cold
front located over north FL early in the day will develop southward
across the Peninsula. Low-level flow will be veered/northerly ahead
of the front, resulting in little low-level convergence.
Additionally, stronger large-scale ascent will remain well north of
the Peninsula. While weak destabilization is forecast (500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE), mainly over the southern Peninsula, poor lapse rates and
warm midlevel temperatures will preclude severe thunderstorm
potential. Most CAMs and calibrated thunder guidance also indicate
little thunderstorm activity. Will maintain 10 percent general
thunder probabilities for the southeast FL coast, but even that may
be generous.

..Leitman.. 12/18/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 200550
SWODY2
SPC AC 200549

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2024

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

...Discussion...
The large-scale pattern will be progressive on Saturday, with a
shortwave trough and related frontal band moving inland across the
Pacific Northwest and northern California. Steepening mid-level
lapse rates and weak buoyancy could yield isolated thunderstorms
mainly for coastal areas of Oregon and northern California during
the morning, and possibly into the afternoon. Severe thunderstorms
are not expected given the minimal buoyancy but gusty winds could
occur with a storm or two along the immediate coast.

Elsewhere, prevalent surface high pressure east of the Rockies and
stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms.

..Guyer.. 12/20/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 210648
SWODY2
SPC AC 210646

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Discussion...
A progressive upper-level pattern will continue across the CONUS on
Sunday. A continental polar airmass will remain across the eastern
CONUS which will preclude thunderstorm potential for most of the
country. A few thunderstorms are possible along the Pacific
Northwest and northern California coasts, particularly Sunday late
afternoon and evening as the next in a series of shortwave troughs
approaches the coast. Severe storms are not currently expected given
the limited buoyancy.

..Guyer.. 12/21/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 220701
SWODY2
SPC AC 220659

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Discussion...
A shortwave trough is expected to amplify from the central Rockies
to the south-central High Plains on Monday. Weak surface wave
development is expected across Texas into southern Oklahoma, with a
modest increase in low-level moisture across central/east Texas into
southern Oklahoma in advance of a cold front moving southeastward
across the southern High Plains. Increasing forcing for ascent and
elevated moisture transport should lead to increasing elevated
convection Monday night across north/northeast Texas into southeast
Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex. While a mid-level capping inversion may
tend to persist, updrafts should increasingly reach a sufficient depth/temperature late Monday night into early Tuesday for at least
isolated thunderstorms. Severe thunderstorms are not currently
expected given access to only weak elevated buoyancy.

Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible late Monday night
across the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California as weak
buoyancy develops with an upper trough approaching the coast and an inland-moving frontal band.

..Guyer.. 12/22/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 221718
SWODY2
SPC AC 221716

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

A midlevel shortwave trough will amplify from the central Rockies to
the south-central High Plains on Monday. A weak surface low will
likely develop across Texas into southern Oklahoma, with a modest
increase in low-level moisture across central/east Texas into
southern Oklahoma in advance of a cold front moving southeastward
across the southern High Plains. Increasing forcing for ascent and
elevated moisture transport should lead to increasing elevated
convection Monday night across north/northeast Texas into southeast
Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex. While a mid-level capping inversion may
tend to persist, updrafts should increasingly reach a sufficient depth/temperature late Monday night into early Tuesday for at least
isolated thunderstorms. Severe thunderstorms are not currently
expected given access to only weak elevated buoyancy.

Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible late Monday night
across the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California as
temperatures aloft cool with the approaching mid-level trough.

..Bentley.. 12/22/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 230702
SWODY2
SPC AC 230700

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few locally severe storms could occur across parts of central and
East Texas on Tuesday.

...Central/East Texas...
A southern-stream shortwave trough will amplify and spread
east-southeastward on Tuesday across the south-central Plains toward
the Ozarks. Low-level moisture will modestly increase across the
Texas coastal plain into south-central/east Texas during the day.
Lower 60s F surface dewpoints will become increasingly common inland
ahead a southeast-moving cold front that will extend from
north-central Texas southwestward toward the Edwards Plateau Tuesday
afternoon.

In proximity to a surface wave and near/north of a warm front,
scattered convection should be ongoing Tuesday morning across far north/northeast Texas and the ArkLaTex vicinity/southeast Oklahoma.
Modest diurnal destabilization (up to 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) should
occur ahead of the southeastward-moving effective cold front, mainly
across south-central to east/southeast Texas including the I-35/I-45
corridors. As this occurs, a diurnally related intensification of
storms is expected near the southeast-advancing front, and possibly
also in the nearby free warm sector during the afternoon. A few of
these storms could be severe.

Effective shear will not be overly strong (30-35 kt), including some
flow weakness continuing to be noted in model soundings around 2-3
km AGL. Even so, some organized storm modes including weak/transient
supercells could occur with marginally severe hail and/or a few
locally severe wind gusts, mainly during the afternoon and evening.

...Northern California/Pacific Northwest...
As a prominent upper-level trough and related frontal band moves
inland, isolated thunderstorms will be possible across northern
California coastal areas and interior valley on Tuesday, early in
the day with the frontal band and with post-frontal cellular
convection during the day as low/mid-level lapse rates steepen. A
more limited/isolated thunderstorm potential will also exist across
other parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest.

..Guyer.. 12/23/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 261722
SWODY2
SPC AC 261720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms could occur across
parts of the central Gulf Coast into central Mississippi and
Alabama.

...Synopsis...
A progressive pattern with multiple embedded mid-level shortwave
troughs will traverse the Southern Plains and Southeast on Friday.
The first of these shortwave troughs, associated with the DY1 severe
weather risk, will be located in the Mid-Mississippi Valley on
Friday morning. A secondary mid-level trough will cross the Mid-Mississippi/Lower-Mississippi valley between 18Z and 00Z on
Friday. Finally, another mid-level trough will start to sharpen
across central/northern Texas toward the end of the period.

...Central Gulf Coast into central MS/AL...
A broken line of thunderstorms, perhaps with some marginal wind
damage threat, will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
across central MS. The mid-level shortwave trough associated with
this convection will move quickly north and deamplify during the
morning which will likely result in weakening convection by mid-day.
A reservoir of instability will remain across the central Gulf Coast
with perhaps some northward advection into central MS/AL during the
early afternoon as the next mid-level trough approaches the region.
The primary forcing/height falls associated with this trough will
remain mostly north of the warm sector, but a glancing blow could
result in isolated thunderstorms. Lapse rates will remain weak, but
sufficient effective shear (35-40 knots) could result in a few
stronger/more organized storms capable of large hail or some
damaging wind gusts.

Removed the marginal risk across central Louisiana for the threat of
elevated thunderstorms with the northward advancing warm front late
in the period. It appears the primary forcing associated with the
mid-level trough and strengthening low-level jet will be after 12Z
Saturday.

..Bentley.. 12/26/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 280703
SWODY2
SPC AC 280702

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast,
Mid-Atlantic, and upper Ohio Valley on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A pronounced upper-level trough will intensify as it pivots
northeast across much of the eastern U.S. Sunday. An associated
surface low will deepen as it moves northeast from western portions
of KY/TN into the eastern Great Lakes region. A trailing cold front
will move east across the southeast/mid-Atlantic states, approaching
the coast during the afternoon/evening.

...Southeast/mid-Atlantic States...
One or more lines of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at 12z
Sunday near and in advance of the cold front, aided by large-scale
ascent with the upper trough and low-level warm/moist advection.
These early-day storms will have severe potential, primarily in the
form of strong/damaging gusts. Low-level moisture, with surface dew
points in the 60s, will advect north throughout the day, reaching as
far north as the VA/NC border by afternoon. Extensive cloud cover
will tend to temper heating/destabilization, with generally weak
instability in advance of the cold front (pockets of MLCAPE between
500 and 1000 J/kg, locally higher over the northern FL peninsula).

Thunderstorms should re-intensify or re-develop during the afternoon
as the stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the moistening warm
sector, with a linear structure likely the dominant storm mode along
the cold front as it moves towards the coast by late
afternoon/evening. Very strong low- and mid-level wind fields will
aid in downward momentum transport resulting in damaging winds as
the primary severe risk. Transient QLCS circulations will also pose
a risk for a tornado or two, especially from portions of eastern GA
across the central Carolinas, where the best overlap of instability
and favorable low-level shear will exist. Isolated instances of hail
will also be possible with the most intense updrafts.

...Upper Ohio Valley...
Beneath the primary mid-level cold core near the center of the
surface low, differential temperature advection above low-mid 50s F
dewpoints should steepen low/mid-level lapse rates sufficiently for
modest diurnal destabilization resulting in a few hundred J/kg of
MUCAPE. This may be sufficient for a risk of a few damaging wind
gusts or small hail with low-topped strong storms, given 45-60 kt of
low-level flow beneath the upper trough.

..Bunting.. 12/28/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 281735
SWODY2
SPC AC 281734

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast,
Mid-Atlantic, and upper Ohio Valley on Sunday.

...Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Vicinity...

A negative-tilt mid/upper trough will progress quickly northeast
from the MS/TN Valley to the lower Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic on
Sunday. A strong 70-90 kt midlevel jet over the TN/OH Valley early
in the period will weaken somewhat as the system lifts northeast.
Nevertheless, abundant vertical shear will overspread the region
through the daytime and evening hours. A mixed convective mode is
expected, especially with southward extent into SC/GA and northern
FL with a QLCS and semi-discrete cells possible. With northward
extent and where stronger large-scale ascent will be focused, a
narrow band of convection will move across portions of WV/VA/NC.

Stronger instability will be focused to the south, from SC into
north FL, where 60s F dewpoints will allow for 500-1200 J/kg MLCAPE.
Weaker boundary-layer moisture and cooler temperatures with
northward extent will limit surface-based instability. Nevertheless,
fast moving linear convection will still pose a risk for sporadic
strong to severe wind gusts from NC into VA/WV. Where stronger
instability and potential for semi-discrete cells are forecast from
SC southward, a greater risk for damaging gusts, a few tornadoes and
marginally severe hail will exist.

...Ohio Valley...

A synoptically favorable setup for cold-core convection will
overspread the region during the afternoon as a surface low lifts
northeast near the IN/OH border. A narrow corridor of mid-50s F
dewpoints will nose into central OH ahead of the low and attendant
surface front. Modest steepening of midlevel lapse rates associated
with the ejecting upper trough will support minor destabilization
(generally less than 250 J/kg MUCAPE) amid modest vertical shear.
Thermodynamic profiles indicate low-topped convection is possible,
though CAMs guidance is very anemic in the depiction of this
convection given poor thermodynamics. Nevertheless, at least a
conditional risk, mainly for strong gusts, will exist during the
early to mid afternoon.

..Leitman.. 12/28/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 290655
SWODY2
SPC AC 290653

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm chances appear low on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A departing upper-level trough will lift northeast early Monday as a
surface cold front moves offshore over New England. An upstream
upper-level trough will amplify as it moves into the central Plains, contributing to the development of a surface low near the KS/MO
border by afternoon. Low-level moisture will begin to return north
across the lower Mississippi Valley/Ark-La-Miss region, however
richer moisture will remain confined to near the TX/LA coast. This
will limit destabilization potential even as ascent/cooling
mid-level temperatures develop near the surface low. Thus, while an
isolated lightning strike will be possible in the presence of meager
MUCAPE (around 100-200 J/kg) across the mid-Mississippi Valley area
Monday night, overall coverage should be less than 10%.

Elsewhere across the CONUS, generally dry/stable conditions should
preclude thunderstorm potential.

..Bunting.. 12/29/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 300634
SWODY2
SPC AC 300632

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Outer Banks into
southern New England late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A compact shortwave trough is forecast to move from the OH Valley
northeastward into southern New England on Tuesday. An attendant
surface low will take a similar path throughout the day while
gradually occluding, reaching western NY by late Tuesday night/early
Wednesday morning. An associated cold front is expected to push from
the Mid MS/Lower OH Valleys eastward through the remainder of the OH
Valley, the TN Valley, and Southeast States. By Wednesday evening, a
surface low generated by secondary cyclogenesis at the triple point
will likely be over the Delmarva Peninsula vicinity, with the
associated cold front extending from this low southwestward through
the central Carolinas, southern GA, and the western FL Peninsula.
Continued eastward progress will take this front off the East Coast
and through all but south FL by early Wednesday morning.

Limited low-level moisture and attendant buoyancy is anticipated
ahead of this shortwave and its associated cold front, precluding
thunderstorm development across much of the eastern CONUS. Some
deeper convective cores are possible along and ahead of the cold
front across the middle OH Valley Wednesday morning. A few lightning
flashes are possible, but current expectation is for overall
coverage to remain less than 10 percent. A greater risk for
thunderstorms is possible from the NC Outer Banks into southern New
England from Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Here, strong
warm-air advection within the warm conveyor could result in a few
elevated storms deep enough to produce lightning.

..Mosier.. 12/30/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 010717
SWODY2
SPC AC 010716

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR TYPO IN DISCUSSION

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected Thursday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A shortwave trough is forecast to rotate through the central/eastern
CONUS upper troughing on Thursday, progressing cyclonically from the
central Plains through the Mid MS Valley into the Southeast States
and southern Appalachians. Another shortwave trough is expected to
drop southeastward through the Upper Midwest early Friday morning.
Progression of these waves will help maintain upper troughing east
of the Rockies through Friday morning.

Farther west, expansive upper ridging will gradually shift eastward
throughout the day, ending the period extended from northern Mexico
into western British Columbia. A strong shortwave trough will
approach the Pacific Northwest coast, but is expected to remain
offshore throughout the period.

The surface pattern is expected to feature ridging centered over the
TN Valley, resulting in offshore flow across the majority of the
CONUS. Another surge of cold air is anticipated across the Plains,
helping to reinforce the cold and dry conditions already in place. Easterly/northeasterly surface winds are forecast across the Gulf of
Mexico, but the development of a weak surface low just off the south
TX coast should preclude any low-level moisture from advecting
inland. Consequently, any thunderstorms activity should stay over
the western Gulf. Dry and stable conditions will prevent
thunderstorm development elsewhere.

..Mosier.. 01/01/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 020657
SWODY2
SPC AC 020655

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A pair of phased shortwave troughs are forecast to progress through
the large-scale troughing expected to be in place across the eastern
CONUS, moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast by Friday afternoon.
Mid-level flow will strengthen in the wake of these waves,
coincident with another shortwave trough dropping from the northern
Plains into the Mid MS Valley. Expansive surface ridging will cover
much of the central and eastern CONUS, with the associated dry and
stable conditions dominating the sensible weather and precluding
thunderstorm development.

Father west, ridging will continue gradually shifting eastward,
ahead of a progressive shortwave trough forecast to move into the
Pacific Northwest. By early Saturday, the upper ridging is expected
to extend across the entire High Plains and into Alberta and
Saskatchewan, with the shortwave trough extending from northwest
WA/southwest British Columbia through the western Great Basin.

Frontal band associated with the progressive shortwave will likely
move onshore early Friday. Some deeper cells are possible within
this band, but these cells will still be too shallow for lightning
production. Another period of deeper convection is possible as the
upper trough and cold mid-level temperatures approach the coast
Friday afternoon. A few low-topped thunderstorms are possible
offshore, with a low-probability flash or two possible over
immediate coastal portions of WA and OR as well.

..Mosier.. 01/02/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 030650
SWODY2
SPC AC 030649

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible early Sunday morning across
parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks.
No severe weather is expected.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level trough will move from the Intermountain West Saturday
morning to the southern Plains early Sunday morning. Low-level
moisture advection will take place across the southern and central
Plains, ahead of the approaching trough. In response, weak
instability is expected to develop from southern and eastern Kansas
southward into Oklahoma. Forecast soundings early Sunday morning
from southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma suggest MUCAPE could
approach 500 J/kg. The instability combined with strong large-scale
ascent should be enough for elevated thunderstorm development late
in the period. No severe threat is expected.

..Broyles.. 01/03/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 040706
SWODY2
SPC AC 040705

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening
from the Sabine River Valley into the lower to mid Mississippi
Valley and central Gulf Coast states. Severe wind gusts, tornadoes
and hail will be the primary threats.

...Sabine River Valley/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valleys...
A mid-level trough will move eastward through the southern Plains on
Sunday, as an associated jet streak translates eastward into the
Ozarks. At the surface, a low will move across the Ozarks as a cold
front advances eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. A moist
airmass will be located ahead of the front, with moisture advection
taking place throughout the day. As surface temperatures warm,
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop late Sunday morning,
with storm coverage increasing rapidly by early afternoon. The
development of a linear MCS is expected as low-level convergence
couples with strong large-scale ascent along and ahead of the front.


A severe threat is expected to develop across a broad area Sunday
afternoon. During the afternoon, NAM forecast soundings from
southern Arkansas into northern Louisiana and central Mississippi
increase MLCAPE to around 500 J/kg with 0-6 km shear reaching the 50
to 60 knot range. Stronger deep-layer shear will be likely as the
mid-level jet passes through the region during the late afternoon.
This will be favorable for severe storms, associated with the
development of a linear MCS. The wind-damage threat will be
maximized along the leading edge of the line, especially with bowing
line segments. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is
forecast to peak in the 400 to 500 m2/s2 range ahead of the line,
suggesting a tornado threat will be likely with any rotating
elements within the line. If more discrete cells can develop ahead
of the line, then supercellular tornadoes would also be possible. At
this time, it appears that the wind-damage threat associated with
the line will be great enough to warrant upgrading to Enhanced
across parts of Louisiana, Arkansas and Mississippi.

..Broyles.. 01/04/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 050654
SWODY2
SPC AC 050653

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts will be possible
across parts of the Southeast on Monday.

...Southeast...
A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Tennessee Valley
and central Gulf Coast states on Monday, as a cold front advances
eastward into the southern Atlantic Coastal states. Thunderstorms
may be ongoing along and near the front at the start of the period
from the Florida Panhandle into south-central Georgia. This line of
convection is forecast to move eastward across the remainder of
Georgia by early afternoon. The southern end of the line is forecast
to move across northern Florida during the morning and afternoon.
Although large-scale ascent and low-level convergence should be
relatively weak, the line may re-organize somewhat as surface
heating takes place. Forecast soundings by 21Z on Monday across
northern Florida have MUCAPE near 500 J/kg and 0-6 km shear in the
60 to 65 knot range. This could be enough for marginally severe
gusts, with the stronger components of the line.

..Broyles.. 01/05/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 051720
SWODY2
SPC AC 051719

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms -- a couple of which may be strong to potentially
severe -- will be possible across parts of the Southeast on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A weakening mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to advance
quickly eastward across the central and southern Appalachians
Monday, and then off the Mid-Atlantic Coast Monday night. South of
this trough, fast westerly flow will prevail across the Gulf Coast
region.

An attendant surface low will depart the southern Appalachians and
cross the Carolinas through the day, moving offshore by early
evening. A trailing cold front will advance across Georgia and the
Carolinas through the afternoon, and then southward across the
Florida Peninsula overnight.

...Northern and western Florida into southern Georgia...
Frontal convection -- including a couple of embedded thunderstorms
-- will be ongoing from the western Carolinas southwestward to the
Florida Panhandle and adjacent northern Gulf of Mexico at the start
of the period, with steady eastward progression to occur through the
day. The strongest forcing for ascent/mass response will exist from
the Carolinas northward, where a lack of surface-based instability
is anticipated. Farther south, meager surface-based instability
(aided by the presence of low 60s dewpoints ahead of the front) and
weak convergence along the front suggests generally sub-severe
convection. However, with a wind field in place that would
otherwise support organized storms, low-probability potential for a
few briefly more-organized storms remains evident. As such, will
maintain low-probability/MRGL risk area for the first half of the
period.

..Goss.. 01/05/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 070635
SWODY2
SPC AC 070634

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night across parts
of west and central Texas.

...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, southwesterly anticyclonic will be in place on
Wednesday across the southern High Plains as a low moves through
northwestern Mexico. Ahead of this system, warm advection will
develop across the southern Plains as a low-level jet strengthens
Wednesday night. Near this jet, lift may become strong enough for
isolated thunderstorm development across parts of west and central
Texas. Instability is expected to be minimal, and no severe threat
is expected.

..Broyles.. 01/07/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 080654
SWODY2
SPC AC 080653

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from parts of
central Texas southeastward across the Texas Coastal Plain, and
eastward into far southwest Louisiana. No severe threat is expected.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level trough over the southern and central Rockies will move
into the central High Plains on Thursday, as southwest mid-level
flow remains over the southern Plains. At low-levels, a cold airmass
will be in place throughout the southern Plains. Over the top of
this airmass, warm advection will likely strengthen as the system to
the west approaches. An associated low-level jet is forecast to
consolidate over the Texas Coastal Plain during the day. Lift and
moisture associated with this feature could be sufficient for
isolated thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings on Thursday
from the Texas Hill Country to the western Gulf Coast have
instability primarily above 800 mb, with MUCAPE up to around 100
J/kg. This could be enough for a few elevated storms, but no severe
threat is expected.

..Broyles.. 01/08/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 090657
SWODY2
SPC AC 090656

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may develop on Friday across parts of the
central Gulf Coast but no severe threat is expected.

...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, a trough will move across the southern Plains on
Friday as west-southwesterly flow remains in place across the
Southeast. At the surface, a low and associated cold front will move
eastward along the central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, surface
dewpoints are expected to be in the 50s F inland, and in the 60s F
southward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Surface heating within
this moist airmass overland will remain very limited, keeping
instability at a minimum. For this reason, no severe threat is
expected on Friday.

..Broyles.. 01/09/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 111651
SWODY2
SPC AC 111649

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1049 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Weak thunderstorm activity is possible near southeastern Louisiana
coastal areas Sunday night. Otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms
will remain negligible across much of the the nation through this
period.

...Discussion...
Downstream of amplifying mid/upper ridging offshore of the U.S.
Pacific coast, models indicate that a belt of cyclonic flow,
initially encompassing much of western into central North America,
will become increasingly split. One embedded short wave
perturbation, emerging from the Intermountain West today, is
forecast to accelerate through an increasingly confluent regime
across the Great Lakes into Northeast, in advance of a mid-level
closed low digging south-southwest of Hudson Bay into the Minnesota international border vicinity by 12Z Monday. Another one or two
digging upstream perturbations may contribute to further
amplification of mid-level troughing across California through the
Southwest, northern Mexican Plateau and Rio Grande Valley vicinity.

Downstream of this troughing, it appears that large-scale mid-level
ridging will build across much of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico
into the Southeast. As this occurs, a lower/mid-tropospheric low,
currently near or just south of the Baja Peninsula, is forecast to
become increasingly deformed and weaken while accelerating
northeastward through an increasingly confluent regime across the
western Gulf/Gulf coast vicinity through the southern Appalachians
Sunday through Sunday night.

Beneath this regime, while a seasonably cold and stable environment
now established across much of the nation will generally be
maintained, models indicate that lower/mid-tropospheric warming on
southerly return flow will develop across the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico into the Southeast. It appears that this will be accompanied
by moistening emanating from a modifying Gulf boundary-layer, and
increasing precipitation within an evolving plume of large-scale
ascent. Based on forecast soundings, this may include convection
capable of producing lightning as far north as north central Gulf
coastal areas by late Sunday evening into Sunday night.

..Kerr.. 01/11/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 120554
SWODY2
SPC AC 120553

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across most of the U.S. on Monday.
However, an isolated thunderstorm or two may approach the north-central/northeast Gulf Coast.

...Synopsis...

Moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will persist across
much of the eastern half of the CONUS on Monday. A weak surface
low/trough is forecast to move across the northeast Gulf of Mexico,
with a warm front remaining offshore the central and northeast Gulf
coast. This will keep deeper boundary-layer moisture offshore.
However, modest midlevel lapse rates amid a saturated thermodynamic
profile in the midlevel will support minor elevated instability
(generally less than 150 J/kg) from the mouth of the MS River
eastward toward the FL Big Bend vicinity. While most thunderstorm
activity is expected to remain offshore, a few thunderstorms may
approach the coast or near-shore waters. Severe thunderstorms are
not expected.

..Leitman.. 01/12/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 140630
SWODY2
SPC AC 140628

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Minimal to no lightning is expected across the U.S. on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...

Strong surface high pressure from the Rockies into the southern
Plains and Southeast will maintain a dry and stable airmass across
most of the CONUS. This will preclude inland thunderstorm activity
for the most part. However, a few lightning flashes are possible
just offshore, or perhaps near the immediate coast of south Texas,
in the vicinity of weak surface low near the Lower Texas Coast.
Coverage is expected to remain less than 10 percent, negating the
need for a 10 percent general thunderstorm delineation.

..Leitman.. 01/14/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 160639
SWODY2
SPC AC 160637

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Lower Mississippi and
Tennessee Valleys, and central Gulf Coast region Friday night into
early Saturday morning.

...Synopsis...

A shortwave upper trough will develop eastward from the southern
Plains to the Southeast on Friday. As this occurs, an intense
midlevel jet streak will overspread the Gulf coast states. A weak surface/trough will likely track from OK/TX to the Lower MS Valley,
with an attendant cold front tracking southeast across the region
through early Saturday.

Southerly low-level flow will allow for some modified Gulf moisture
to return northward from East TX to the central Gulf coast. Low 60s
F dewpoints are expected to remain confined near the coast, with 50s
F dewpoints reaching roughly as far north as southern AR into
central MS/AL during the evening and overnight hours. Forecast
soundings indicate the boundary-layer will remain capped, limiting
surface instability. However, steepening midlevel lapse rates will
support modest elevated instability (MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg).
Isolated elevated thunderstorm will be possible from near the Sabine
River into parts of the central Gulf coast states Friday evening
into early Saturday morning ahead of the advancing cold front. Poor thermodynamics will limit overall severe thunderstorm potential.
However, strong forcing and an increasing low-level jet ahead of the
front could be sufficient amid weak elevated instability to support
a briefly strong storm or two producing gusty winds from southeast
LA to far southern MS/AL, and the western FL Panhandle vicinity.

..Leitman.. 01/16/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 170550
SWODY2
SPC AC 170548

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms may occur over parts of the Southeast on
Saturday. Severe thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain low.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A southern stream speed max will extend from TX and northern Mexico
across the central Gulf Coast on Saturday, and will eventually phase
with a developing full-latitude trough late. A cold front will push
across the southeastern states during the day, and southwest surface
winds will bring lower 60 F dewpoints inland as far north as
southern GA. Meanwhile, mid 60s F may be present along the Gulf
Coast. Just above the surface, winds around 850 mb will already be
strong and veered to nearly due westerly, which will tend to bring
drying aloft.

That said, the initial warm advection regime ahead of the cold front
may support scattered thunderstorms from early to midday across
parts of AL, GA, and northern FL. Despite the increasing low-level
moisture, the boundary layer will remain relatively cool, with less-than-optimal lapse rates. However, lift along the front as well
as the strong flow could conditionally support locally strong gusts.
At this time, uncertainty regarding air mass destabilization
precludes any low severe probabilities.

Otherwise, a very large upper trough will continue to develop across
much of the CONUS, with cyclonic flow aloft extending from coast to
coast by Sunday morning, providing cool/stable conditions.

..Jewell.. 01/17/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 180637
SWODY2
SPC AC 180635

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY
ACROSS CENTRAL FL...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated wind damage and an isolated tornado will be possible during
the day across central Florida.

...Central FL during the day Sunday...
Within a large-scale trough over much of the CONUS, an embedded
mid-upper jet streak will move over the Southeast and off the
Atlantic coast, as an associated surface cold front progresses
southeastward across the FL peninsula during the day. Some increase
in low-level moisture is expected ahead of the front during the day,
with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s and temperatures in the
70s. However, midlevel lapse rates will be poor and buoyancy will
remain limited (MLCAPE will likely peak in the 500-750 J/kg range).
The combination of weak buoyancy and sufficiently long, relatively
straight hodographs will support low potential for organized storms
in a band along the cold front, perhaps with strong outflow gusts.

..Thompson.. 01/18/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 190634
SWODY2
SPC AC 190633

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected Monday or Monday night.

...Synopsis...
A large upper trough will stretch from coast to coast across the
CONUS, with the upper low near James Bay. The strong northwest flow
aloft across the Rockies and Plains will maintain influxes of high
pressure, providing cool and stable surface conditions over the bulk
of the CONUS. While minimal moisture or weak instability may exist
north of the cold front into southern FL, poor lapse rates aloft
should prove hostile to even weak elevated thunderstorm potential.

..Jewell.. 01/19/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 200550
SWODY2
SPC AC 200549

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A large positive-tilt upper trough will stretch from the upper Great
Lakes into the southern High Plains Tuesday morning, and will
progress toward the East Coast by 12Z Wednesday. Behind this wave,
another lobe of vorticity will drop south across the Rockies and
toward the Plains late.

At the surface, a strong high pressure ridge will extend from the
Great Basin all the way to the Mid Atlantic Tuesday morning, with
this high consolidating across the eastern states and toward the
lower MS Valley overnight. Another area of high pressure will
develop southward across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies,
in association with the second upper wave.

While 60s F dewpoints will remain from the FL Straits toward the
Bahamas, little destabilization is expected over the mainland.
Thunderstorms may occur over parts of the central Gulf of Mexico
along the surging cold front, with little impact to land expected.

..Jewell.. 01/20/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 210450
SWODY2
SPC AC 210448

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1048 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A large upper trough will remain over all but the westernmost CONUS
on Wednesday, with a leading trough exiting the East Coast early in
the day. At that time, high pressure will firmly be in place over
the East, with strong north winds over the Gulf of Mexico and
western Atlantic. A weak surface low may develop along the front
over the Bahamas, but low-level moisture and instability is forecast
to remain off the FL Peninsula.

Behind this system, another upper trough will develop out of the
Rockies and into the central states, with another strong area of
high pressure centered over the Intermountain West into Thursday
morning. The cool and/or stable air mass over land will thus
maintain little if any chance of thunderstorms through the period.

..Jewell.. 01/21/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 230627
SWODY2
SPC AC 230626

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast for Friday.

...Synopsis...
An elongated positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the lower
Great Lakes into the lower MS Valley Friday morning, and will
quickly move to the East Coast by evening. Behind this trough, zonal
flow will develop across much of central and southern CONUS,
allowing warming aloft.

High pressure will move from the Plains into the eastern states
through the period, prolonging dry offshore winds across much of the
Southeast. While southerly low-level flow will develop late across
the western Gulf and into TX, instability supportive of
thunderstorms is not forecast this early in the return cycle.

Elsewhere, another large lobe of vorticity will rotate southward
across the northern Rockies and Pacific NW during the day, into the
Great Basin by Saturday morning. Temperatures aloft will be cold,
but little instability is forecast to support any
convection/lightning.

..Jewell.. 01/23/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 240701
SWODY2
SPC AC 240659

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in parts of
central and east Texas Saturday night.

...DISCUSSION...
West to west-southwest mid-level flow will be in place across the
southern U.S from Saturday into Saturday night. Beneath this flow, a
belt of strong low-level flow will be in place across parts of
central and east Texas. In response, low-level moisture return is
forecast to take place across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain
throughout the day into the overnight period. After midnight, lift
along the western edge of the low-level jet may be conducive to
isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. However, instability
is forecast to remain weak and no severe threat expected to develop.

..Broyles.. 01/24/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 250659
SWODY2
SPC AC 250657

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible from Sunday
into Sunday night from the Texas Coastal Plain into the lower
Mississippi Valley, but no severe threat is expected.

...DISCUSSION...
Zonal westerly mid-level flow will be in place across the Southeast
on Sunday, as a belt of strong low-level flow remains over the
western Gulf Coast. At the surface, a cold front will advance
southward into the lower Mississippi Valley and Texas Coastal Plain.
Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 60s
F. Due to widespread cloud cover, surface heating ahead of the front
is expected to be minimal, and instability should remain weak during
the day. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely to
develop near the front on Thursday from the Texas Coastal Plain into
southern Louisiana, but weak instability should be unfavorable for
severe storms. This storms are forecast to move eastward into the
lower Mississippi Valley during the evening and overnight period.

..Broyles.. 01/25/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 260656
SWODY2
SPC AC 260654

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday in the lower
Mississippi Valley and in southern California, but no severe threat
is expected.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level trough will move across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
on Monday, as a cold front advances southward across the lower
Mississippi Valley. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing near the
start of the period along or near the front. Further west, a
mid-level low will move southward along the coast of southern
California. Isolated lightning strikes could occur near the low. No
severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Monday or
Monday night.

..Broyles.. 01/26/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 270640
SWODY2
SPC AC 270638

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. Tuesday
or Tuesday night.

...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, a low is forecast to remain over northern Arizona on
Tuesday as flow becomes more southwesterly across western parts of
the southern Plains. In response, low-level moisture advection will
take place across parts of southern and central Texas from Tuesday
into Tuesday night. The moist sector will remain largely void of
precipitation, except toward the end of the period when shower
development will be possible near the Red River along the northern
edge of the stronger low-level flow. Instability is expected to be
insufficient for thunderstorm development. Elsewhere across the
continental U.S., thunderstorms are not expected Tuesday and Tuesday night.

..Broyles.. 01/27/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 280702
SWODY2
SPC AC 280700

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL TEXAS VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong/possibly severe storms will be possible across parts of
the southern Plains Wednesday evening/overnight.

...Synopsis...
A closed mid-level low over Arizona early Wednesday will move
eastward and then northeastward across the Southwest/southern
Rockies, with strong mid-level southwesterlies spreading into the
south-central U.S. ahead of this system.

At the surface, weak pressure falls across the southern Plains in
response to the approach of the upper system will lead to the
development of an inverted trough over central Texas through the
second half of the period. A broad zone of low-level warm advection/quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent will result in mainly
elevated convective development through the second half of the
period.

...Central Texas...
Low-level theta-e advection will increase through the day Wednesday
atop a cool surface-based airmass will result in gradual/weak
elevated destabilization. As quasigeostrophic ascent likewise
increases with time, elevated showers -- and eventually, scattered thunderstorms -- are expected, with most of the thunderstorm
activity to occur after dark.

While the greatest low-level moisture (limited to low 60s dewpoints)
will occur over eastern portions of central Texas (the Hill Country
region), truly surface-based convection appears a low-probability
occurrence. Overall, expect convection to be elevated above a
persistently stable surface layer, with any wind risk or brief
tornado potential limited to eastern portions of the risk area.
Otherwise, a few storms capable of producing marginal hail are
expected, but overall risk should remain limited by modest CAPE.

..Goss.. 01/28/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 290702
SWODY2
SPC AC 290700

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible Thursday from eastern
Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
A closed upper low initially forecast to lie over the southeastern
Colorado area is expected to move steadily eastward Day 2/Thursday,
crossing Kansas/Oklahoma and eventually shifting into/across the
Ozarks through 31/12Z.

At the surface, a very weak surface low expected over northeastern
Texas Thursday morning is expected to shift north-northeastward with
time, with some deepening of the low expected through latter stages
of the period as it moves into the Illinois/Indiana area.
Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will sweep across eastern Texas
early in the period, across the Lower Mississippi Valley area
through the evening, and should lie from Indiana southward across
Kentucky and Tennessee, to the mouth of the Mississippi River by the
end of the period.

...East Texas to western Mississippi...
As the surface cold front shifts eastward through the day, southerly
low-level winds within the warm sector will advect partially
modified Gulf air northward into southeastern Texas and Louisiana.
Weak lapse rates will substantially hinder destabilization, but
low-level moistening should be sufficient to allow very weak
surface-based CAPE to develop ahead of the advancing front.

Elevated showers and storms should be ongoing at the start of the
period, moving across the eastern half of Texas. As low-level
moistening allows storms to gradually become surface-based,
potential for locally damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will
increase. Risk should become maximized through the late afternoon
and early evening hours, expanding into/across Louisiana with time.
While the meager instability should temper the overall risk,
favorably strong low-level and deep-layer shear across the region
will exist, with low-level southerly flow increasing and veering
substantially with height through the lower half of the troposphere.

The main storm mode is expected to be rotating storms embedded
within small-scale linear segments, with convection spreading
eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley through the evening
before weakening overnight.

..Goss.. 01/29/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 300656
SWODY2
SPC AC 300654

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST REGION...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong/potentially severe storms may occur over parts of
the central/eastern Gulf Coast region Friday.

...Synopsis...
An upper low moving across the central U.S. early Friday is progged
to devolve into an open wave, which will move quickly across the
eastern half of the U.S. with time. By the end of the period, this
feature will likely have reached the Atlantic Coast.

At the surface, a weak low will move across the Midwest and central Appalachians early in the period, and then should redevelop off the
New England coast after sunset. A trailing cold front will cross
the Southeast and Atlantic Coast states with time, moving offshore
overnight and trailing only across the Florida Peninsula through the
end of the period.

...Mouth of the Mississippi eastward to southwestern Georgia...
Showers -- and possibly a few thunderstorms -- should be ongoing
Friday morning, largely elevated above a weakly stable boundary
layer. Weak heating through the morning and into early afternoon
may support meager, nearly surface-based CAPE to gradually evolve.
Given favorable background shear across the warm sector, a few
stronger updrafts cannot be ruled out. Though the lack of more
substantial instability should substantially hinder potential for
severe weather, a few stronger gusts and/or a brief tornado cannot
be ruled out. The risk should peak from late morning through late
afternoon, diminishing into the evening as the front -- and
associated convective band -- advance eastward across Georgia and
the Florida Panhandle.

..Goss.. 01/30/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 310656
SWODY2
SPC AC 310654

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential across the United States appears low on Saturday.

...Discussion...
As an upper short-wave trough moves off the East Coast early in the
period, flow aloft will trend quasi-zonal across the U.S. through
Sunday morning. Emanating from a low over the southwestern Canada
coast, several short-wave features are expected to eject eastward
across the northern U.S. within the evolving/fast westerly flow regime.

At the surface, a weak low is forecast to shift eastward across
southern Canada, as the aforementioned short-wave energy shifts
eastward. A trailing cold front associated with this low will shift southeastward across the northern Intermountain region through the
period. Elsewhere, cold frontolysis will occur over the Florida
Peninsula, as trailing portion of the cold front crossing the
western Atlantic sags southward with time.

With largely cool/stable air across most of the country, little
thunder potential is evident. A flash or two may occur across parts
of the northwestern U.S., within an area of showers across this
region. A flash or two may occur offshore from Florida, but
lightning is not expected inland. Overall, any lightning over the
U.S. should remain well below 10% coverage thresholds, and thus no
thunder areas will be included for this forecast.

..Goss.. 01/31/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 020659
SWODY2
SPC AC 020657

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Minimal thunder potential is evident across the U.S. on Monday.

...Discussion...
A zonal flow configuration aloft is forecast at the start of the Day
2 period across the U.S., but with weak amplification expected with
time, as a weak low near the southwestern Canada coast deepens and
retrogrades slowly southwestward. As this occurs, broader/weakly
cyclonic flow will gradually evolve near and off the West Coast. In
response, weak downstream ridging will occur over the central U.S.,
and troughing still further downstream, over the eastern states.

At the surface, a cold front will shift eastward across eastern
Canada and the Northeast, and southward across the Plains and
Midwest. By late in the period, the front should extend from near
the New England coast and Mid-Atlantic region west-southwestward to
the southern Plains.

While weak low-level theta-e advection is expected across the
southern U.S. south of the cold front, it should remain insufficient
to yield CAPE supportive of thunderstorm development. Meanwhile,
Arctic air expanding southward across the northern U.S. will prove
hostile to deep convection.

Late in the period, short-wave troughing moving into California will
likely support an increase in showers -- and potentially an embedded
lightning flash or two near the central Coast. Overall potential
however does not appear to warrant inclusion of a 10% thunder area
at this time.

..Goss.. 02/02/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 030703
SWODY2
SPC AC 030702

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low overall on Tuesday.

...Discussion...
Low-amplitude flow aloft will prevail across the U.S. Tuesday, with
a weak western ridge/central trough/eastern ridge configuration
expected to prevail. Within the broader flow field, a short-wave
trough is forecast to shift east-northeastward out of California and
the Great Basin/Four Corners states through the period.

At the surface, a baroclinic zone extending from the southern Plains
to the Carolinas/Virginia will make slow southward progress across
the southeastern states, while remaining more quasistationary over
the southern Plains.

Showers are forecast to develop north of the boundary later in the
period -- particularly across the Mid-Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee
Valleys, as quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent increases. However,
not more than a few flashes of lightning are anticipated at this
time, prior to 05/12Z. A few flashes may also occur across portions
of the West, in tandem with the advance of the upper short-wave
feature, but coverage should remain well below 10% -- thus negating
any need for a thunder area.

..Goss.. 02/03/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 040709
SWODY2
SPC AC 040708

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong to potentially severe storms may occur across
portions of the Mid South Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
Within a background low-amplitude upper flow field, an embedded
short-wave trough is forecast to shift across the Plains and
into/across the Midwest/Ohio Valley region with time. As this
occurs, a weak surface frontal wave along the lingering west-to-east
baroclinic zone is expected to shift from the Oklahoma area during
the afternoon, across the Mid Mississippi and later the Ohio Valley
region. Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the Mid South
region and vicinity, in response, particularly during the latter
half of the period.

...Tennessee/Kentucky and vicinity...
Convection is forecast to gradually increase into the afternoon and
evening hours across the Mid and Lower Mississippi/Tennessee
Valleys, and eventually Ohio Valley, with a broad zone of warm advection/quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent ahead of the advancing
mid-level wave.

While weak lapse rates and only partially modified low-level air
will exist across the warm sector, shear will be favorable across
the region for updraft organization. The lack of more substantial
CAPE is expected to largely temper severe-weather potential, but a
few stronger storms are expected, mainly from mid afternoon mid
evening. Any vigorous/sustained updraft which can evolve, will be
capable of producing gusty winds -- perhaps reaching severe levels
locally. A brief tornado or two could also occur, given shear
sufficient for both low- and mid-level updraft rotation.

..Goss.. 02/04/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 050702
SWODY2
SPC AC 050700

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Thursday.

...Discussion...
Zonal flow aloft will broadly persist across the U.S. Thursday, with
the two main features being a short-wave trough pivoting toward --
and eventually into -- the Pacific Northwest, and a second that will
cross Ontario/Quebec and the Great Lakes region through the period.
Meanwhile, a much weaker/more subtle disturbance will move out of
the Pacific and across California early, and then continue eastward
across the Four Corners states, and eventually -- by the end of the
period -- emerge into the Plains.

At the surface, a weak frontal wave should move across the central
Appalachians and then off the New England coast by evening, while
the trailing cold front makes only slow southward progress across
the Southeast and Southern Plains through the period.

Showers and possibly a few weak thunderstorms may be ongoing at the
start of the period, from the Tennessee Valley into the Mid-Atlantic
region. Weak convective activity will likely continue during the
period, along the aforementioned surface front as it sags southward.
However, weak instability forecast across the region should
substantially hinder appreciable severe risk. At this time, it
appears that a stronger, elevated afternoon storm or two, evolving
over the North Carolina vicinity, possibly capable of producing
hail. However, overall risk for any hail exceeding 1" in diameter
appears too small at this time to introduce a MRGL risk area.

..Goss.. 02/05/2025

$$

= = =
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ACUS02 KWNS 060659
SWODY2
SPC AC 060657

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Showers and a few lightning flashes will be possible Friday,
particularly across the high terrain of northern Utah and vicinity.

...Discussion...
Within the background quasi-zonal flow aloft across the U.S., a
short-wave trough is forecast to shift eastward out of the
northwestern U.S. across the Great Basin and northern Intermountain
region. Quasigeostrophic ascent associated with this feature will
support scattered showers, with a few lightning flashes possible -- particularly across favored high-terrain areas of northern Utah and
surrounding areas.

The advance of the aforementioned upper system will support eastward progression of a weak/associated surface low. Late in the period,
the low should emerge into the northern Plains. Meanwhile, farther
south, a persistent baroclinic zone will remain draped from Oklahoma
to the Carolinas through the period. While isolated showers will be
possible in the vicinity of this front, weak instability should
preclude thunderstorm potential.

..Goss.. 02/06/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 070606
SWODY2
SPC AC 070605

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1205 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Shallow convective showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible
in portions of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on Saturday. Severe
weather potential is low.

...Synopsis...
Low-amplitude upper-level ridging will develop in the wake of
departing trough across the Great Lakes into the Mid-South. Within
the central Plains, another shortwave trough is expected to
intensify as it progresses eastward into the Ohio
Valley/Mid-Atlantic by Sunday morning. At the surface, the initial
stages of warm advection into the Tennessee Valley will take place
late Friday night and will continue through mid/late Saturday
afternoon. Modest moisture (mid/upper 50s F dewpoints) may reach as
far north as the Ohio Valley region. By Saturday evening, a strong
cold front will then push into Mid-South/Southeast into Sunday
morning. A modest surface cyclone will develop in response to the
secondary upper trough and progress along the surface boundary.

...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys...
Models continue to show variability in the strength of the surface
cyclone and, consequently, the degree of warm/moist advection into
the regions. Despite these differences, there is likely to be some
remnant, shallow cold air across Kentucky/Tennessee and adjacent
areas. Cloud cover will mute surface heating, but offsetting warm
advection should allow areas of low 60s F temperatures south of the
Ohio River. The thermodynamic environment is expected to be rather
weak. The general model consensus would suggest no more than 100
J/kg of MUCAPE is possible. The primary driver of convection will be
the cold front where shallow convective showers are probable.
Convective depth will be limited by lingering warm air aloft and
lightning production will be minimal to isolated. Even with these
limitations, 40-50 kts of flow at 850 mb could allow for isolated
stronger wind gusts within locally deeper convection. Given the
remaining uncertainties and expected sparse coverage of marginally
stronger activity, severe potential still appears low. Near and
north of the Ohio River, convection should remain elevated with
similar low/isolated potential for lightning.

..Wendt.. 02/07/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 090636
SWODY2
SPC AC 090635

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into
central and northeast Texas late Monday night. Severe weather
potential is low.

...Synopsis...
Zonal flow east of the Divide will generally shift eastward Monday.
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will lift northeastward through
northern Mexico into West/Central Texas by Tuesday morning. At the
surface, a cold front initially near the Gulf Coast will likely move
slowly northward in response to the approaching trough. Modest
mid-level ascent and weak low-level warm advection will occur late
in the period from the Edwards Plateau into northeast Texas. As
scattered showers develop overnight Monday, a few embedded
thunderstorms may occur given the weak elevated buoyancy present.
Though shear will be strong, the poor thermodynamic environment will
keep potential for severe weather quite low.

..Wendt.. 02/09/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 100630
SWODY2
SPC AC 100628

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern
Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe weather
is not currently anticipated.

...Synopsis...
Broad upper-level troughing is expected to evolve over much of the
West on Tuesday. A shortwave perturbation is expected to eject into
the southern Plains late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. At the
surface, a cold front should extend from the southern High Plains
into central Texas before arcing northeastward along the upper Texas
Gulf Coast and into the lower Mississippi Valley.

...Southern Plains to Lower Mississippi Valley...
Precipitation is likely to be ongoing early Tuesday morning. Most of
this activity will be occurring on the cool side of the boundary.
This should reinforce the front, though some modest northward
progression of warmer, moist air may occur within the coastal plain
regions. Potential for surface-based storms south of the boundary in
southeast Texas/Sabine Valley vicinity appears low as the low-level
jet will weaken during the morning/afternoon and mid-level ascent
will be weak. Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate poor lapse
rates in the column and warm layers that will inhibit updraft
intensity. Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning, additional
isolated to scattered storms are possible from the Edwards Plateau
into Central/Northeast Texas as mid-level forcing and 850 mb warm
advection increases. Again, these storms will be elevated on the
cool side of the boundary. The strongest of these storms could
produce small hail. The overall severe threat appears too
isolated/uncertain for unconditional probabilities.

..Wendt.. 02/10/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 110639
SWODY2
SPC AC 110638

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
EASTERN LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
night from the Sabine Valley vicinity into far western Georgia.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough pivoting through the southern High Plains will
begin to intensify by Wednesday afternoon as it approaches the
mid-Mississippi Valley. A surface cyclone will evolve along a
southward-surging cold front in the southern Plains. The surface low
will deepen more substantially by late afternoon in the
mid-Mississippi Valley as it moves quickly north and east. Richer
Gulf moisture will return into the Southeast and may reach as far
north as portions of Tennessee. The cold front will sweep through
the Southeast beginning in the late afternoon and into Thursday
morning.

...Lower MS Valley/Central Gulf Coast States...
Warm advection precipitation will likely be ongoing along the
surface boundary Wednesday morning. Models vary on the spatial
extent of precipitation with the ECMWF generally showing less
clearing during the afternoon than other models. Available CAM
guidance also shows similar variability. In terms of environment,
low/mid 60s F dewpoints should reach through much of
Alabama/Mississippi. Upper 60s F dewpoints are expected in southern Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama, but could potentially push as far
north as central Mississippi/Alabama as strong advection continues
into the evening. Effective shear of 50-60 kts will favor organized storms/bowing segments. This shear will initially be roughly
parallel to the front, but, as the front surges southeast, shear
vectors will have a greater cross-boundary component. Strong
low-level shear will also be in place with a 45-55 kt low-level jet
moving from Louisiana during the morning into Mississippi/Alabama
during the afternoon.

The current expectation is for morning storms near the Sabine Valley
to gradually intensify as they move northeast into a modestly
destabilizing boundary-layer. How these storms evolve is uncertain.
Damaging winds are a likely hazard, but, depending on storm mode and
the degree of heating in Mississippi, could also pose a similar risk
for tornadoes. Storms along the front are not likely to make much
progress southeastward until the late afternoon. As the front moves,
convective transport of the strong wind fields will promote damaging
winds and strong low-level shear will bring a risk for embedded circulations/QLCS tornadoes. Discrete development ahead of the front
during the evening is possible given strong theta-e advection and
weak capping, but synoptic ascent will be displaced north which
reduces confidence in that scenario. Surface-based storms become
much less likely into Tennessee and Georgia.

..Wendt.. 02/11/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 130625
SWODY2
SPC AC 130623

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible from the Sabine Valley into the Ozarks
and Mid-South on Friday. Additional isolated storms are possible in
the southern Great Basin/Four Corners vicinity. Severe weather is
not currently expected.

...Synopsis...
A strong upper-level trough will move eastward through the Great
Basin and reach the Southwest by early Saturday morning. At the
surface, a lee cyclone will develop in eastern Colorado and evolve southeastward into the southern Plains. A cold front will move into
the southern Plains and extent northeastward into the Upper Midwest.
Moisture will begin to rapidly return Friday afternoon into the
lower Mississippi Valley and parts of East Texas.

...Sabine Valley/Ozarks/Mid-South...
As the upper trough approaches and warm advection intensifies during
the evening/overnight Friday, a few storms may develop from the
ArkLaTex into the Ozarks. Additional storm development is likely to
occur later farther east in the Mid-South. The thermodynamic
environment is expected to limit severe potential in the Mid-South.
Within the ArkLaTex/Ozarks, current guidance suggests scattered
storms are probable. The environment here will have strong shear,
but will only have modest mid-level lapse rates/buoyancy. Given the
marginal thermodynamics in addition to storm interactions, the
coverage of marginally severe hail is expected to be quite limited.
Small hail appears more probable in the strongest storms. Farther
south, low-level moisture will be greater, but warm air aloft
currently appears that it will suppress any deep convection.

...Southern Great Basin/Four Corners...
Modest surface heating with 500 mb temperatures around -25 C will
promote isolated convection capable of sporadic lightning. Buoyancy
will be minimal and severe weather is not likely.

..Wendt.. 02/13/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 150631
SWODY2
SPC AC 150630

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong wind gusts are possible on Sunday, mainly from late
morning through the afternoon, across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.

...Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic...

Convection will be ongoing Sunday morning ahead of an
eastward-advancing cold front from the FL Panhandle to the western
Carolinas. This line of storms could produce strong gusts and
perhaps a tornado across the FL Panhandle/north FL into southern GA
where mid-60s F dewpoints are forecast amid strong vertical shear.
However, large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough shifting
east across the eastern U.S. will gradually become displaced to the
north with time. Nevertheless, isolated severe potential is expected
until the front moves offshore the GA coast by 21z.

Further north into the Carolinas and portions of Delmarva vicinity,
severe potential is somewhat more uncertain. Boundary-layer moisture
will remain more limited (upper 50s to low 60s F) and instability
will be quite weak due to poor lapse rates. However, strong
large-scale ascent, frontal forcing, and intense south/southwesterly
flow from around 925mb upward, will likely lend some support to
strong gusts, even with weak convection that may produce little
lightning. While poor thermodynamics may limit a more robust severe thunderstorm scenario, will maintain a Marginal risk given intense
background flow fields. Severe thunderstorm potential should end by
21-00z as the cold front pushes offshore.

..Leitman.. 02/15/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 151725
SWODY2
SPC AC 151724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA...NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Locally strong wind gusts are possible Sunday morning, particularly
across portions of the Southeast but possibly as far north as the
Mid-Atlantic region.

...Synopsis...
A vigorous/fast-moving short-wave trough -- embedded in broader
cyclonic flow aloft -- will move quickly eastward across the eastern
quarter of the U.S. Sunday. As this feature reaches the Atlantic
Coast/New England by evening, lower-amplitude/westerly flow will
evolve across much of the rest of the country.

At the surface, sharp cold front should extend from an eastern Ohio
low, southward roughly along the Appalachians to the Florida
Panhandle. This front will move steadily eastward/southeastward,
and should clear the Middle and Southern Atlantic Coast during the
afternoon. During the evening and overnight, the occluding/parent
low is forecast to shift across New England, while the trailing
front moves eastward across the western Atlantic and southward
across the Florida Peninsula and Gulf of America through Sunday
morning. In the wake of this front, Arctic air will gradually
spread southeastward across the Plains/Midwest, and eventually the
Northeast.

...Southeastern U.S. to the Mid-Atlantic region...
A band of showers and embedded thunderstorms will be ongoing at the
start of the period near the advancing cold front. The greatest
coverage of lightning is expected from the southern Appalachians to
the Florida Gulf Coast, where a well-organized squall line should be
ongoing from central Georgia to the Florida Panhandle. Modest CAPE
across this part of the area will support deeper updrafts, and thus
greater potential for some downward transport of high-momentum flow
aloft. Risk for subsequent strong-to-severe gusts at the surface
appears sufficient to warrant an upgrade to SLGT risk across
southern Georgia, northern Florida, and central and eastern parts of
the Florida Panhandle. Storms should reach/clear the South Carolina
and Georgia coasts around midday, ending the risk over all but
northern Florida, where wind risk should gradually diminish as
weakening convection shifts southward through the afternoon.

Farther north, weaker instability will limit convective
intensity/depth, with lightning expected to be generally more
isolated/sporadic with northward extent. Still, with very strong
flow aloft preceding the upper trough, stronger, fast-moving
convective elements may still produce gusty winds, and thus
potential for minor damage locally as far north as the
Chesapeake/Delmarva area until the primary band of storms moves
offshore through mid afternoon.

..Goss.. 02/15/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 170649
SWODY2
SPC AC 170647

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to evolve
across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana, mainly
Tuesday evening and into the overnight hours.

...Upper TX Coast and Southern LA...

An upper shortwave trough will move across the Plains to the MS
Valley on Tuesday. This will bring a swath of enhanced
mid/upper-level southwesterly flow across the south-central states.
At the surface, a weak low will traverse the western Gulf Coast
vicinity to southern MS through the period. Meanwhile, an Arctic
cold front will surge south/southeast across the region mainly after
00z and into Wednesday morning.

Ahead of the cold front, southerly near-surface flow and a
strengthening southwesterly low-level jet will transport 60s F
dewpoints northward. However, the northward extent of deeper
moisture return will be limited to near the I-10 corridor. A cool boundary-layer beneath a warm layer between 925-850 mb will result
in little surface-based instability. Additionally, nebulous
large-scale ascent will preclude convective development until near
00z when the upper trough impinges on the area. Cooling aloft and
modestly steep midlevel lapse rates amid moistening low/midlevels
will support MUCAPE values up to around 1000 J/kg. Vertical shear
will be favorable for organized convection, with elongated/straight
hodographs forecast above the aforementioned warm layer. While the
warm sector will be rather limited, and the cold front will quickly
surge southeast after dark, a few stronger elevated storms will be
possible. This activity will mainly pose a risk for marginally
severe hail.

There is some conditional potential toward the end of the period for near-surface based convection across parts of southern LA. However,
this is conditional on the northward extent of the warm sector,
which remains uncertain as the surface low is forecast to track very
near the coast. If near-surface based storms can develop, some
potential for strong gusts and a tornado or two will accompany
storms given very favorable low-level SRH and large/curved low-level hodographs. Will include low tornado probabilities to encompass this
scenario, though this outcome remains uncertain.

..Leitman.. 02/17/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 180624
SWODY2
SPC AC 180622

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast
on Wednesday, but severe storms are not expected.

...Synopsis...

A weak surface low is forecast to be near far southeast LA at the
beginning of the forecast period, with a trailing Arctic cold front
extending southwest into the western Gulf. Isolated thunderstorms
will likely be ongoing from southeast LA eastward along the central
Gulf coast vicinity during the morning. Stronger convection will
remain over the warmer Gulf waters as the cold front develops
east/southeast through the day. Poor lapse rates and modest
boundary-layer moisture ahead of the cold front will preclude much destabilization over land. A couple of thunderstorms may develop
over the FL Peninsula during the late afternoon/early evening, but
severe thunderstorms are not expected given the expected poor
thermodynamic environment.

..Leitman.. 02/18/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 210630
SWODY2
SPC AC 210628

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible from the middle and upper Texas
Coast toward the Sabine Valley Saturday evening into early Sunday.
At least some risk of hail may eventually develop.

...Synopsis...
Northwest flow with multiple mid-level shortwave troughs will be
present across the CONUS on Saturday. One of these troughs will
advance from the Southwest into the southern Plains. Low-level flow
will strengthen across the western Gulf with increasing moisture and strengthening isentropic ascent.

...Southeast Texas and southern Louisiana...
An increase in convection is expected along the Gulf Coast during
the day Saturday and particularly into Saturday night. MUCAPE around
500 J/kg and effective shear around 30-35 knots may result in a few
stronger storms. CAPE heavily concentrated within the hail growth
zone and a cool boundary layer will support the potential for some
hail, but somewhat limited instability may limit the updraft
acceleration needed for larger (1.00") hail. If greater instability
appears more likely, a Marginal Risk may eventually be needed from
southeast Texas and into coastal Louisiana.

..Bentley.. 02/21/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 220654
SWODY2
SPC AC 220653

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are forecast across portions of southern Louisiana and
immediate surrounding areas on Sunday. No severe weather is expected.

...Discussion...
Elevated thunderstorms will be ongoing across the Gulf at the
beginning of the period with some lightning activity possible across
much of southern Louisiana and perhaps parts of Southeast Texas. The
greater instability, and thus the best chance for marginal severe
hail, will remain well offshore in the central Gulf. By Sunday
evening, the surface low and associated surface front will move far
enough southeast into the central Gulf to bring an end to
thunderstorm activity by mid to late evening. These thunderstorms
may approach the Florida coast by late in the period, but are
expected to arrive after 12Z.

..Bentley.. 02/22/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 230704
SWODY2
SPC AC 230702

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible across South Florida and coastal Oregon/Washington on Monday. No severe thunderstorms are expected.

...Synopsis...
A positively tilted trough will amplify as it moves from South Texas
to the Florida Peninsula on Monday. As this occurs, the surface low
already present over the Gulf will deepen somewhat during the day
and eventually advance east across the Panhandle and into the
western Atlantic by 12Z Tuesday. Farther west, a strong mid-level
jet streak and associated strong surface low will approach the
Pacific Northwest coast with a cold front advancing inland on Monday evening/Monday night.

...South Florida and the Florida Keys...
A large MCS will likely be ongoing across the eastern Gulf at the
beginning of the period with a some strong to potentially severe
thunderstorms ongoing across the open water. However, this MCS will
weaken as it moves east into lesser instability across and near the
Florida Peninsula. Some guidance, most notably the 00Z HRRR,
maintains greater instability across the Keys and far south Florida.
This could result in an isolated damaging wind gust or even a
localized tornado threat across south Florida. However, the majority
of guidance keeps instability well offshore with the strongest
storms even southwest of the Keys. If a greater instability solution
does occur across south Florida, a Marginal risk may be needed in
later outlooks, but the probability of that solution remains too low
for probabilities at this time.

...Northwest...
A very strong wind field will be present on Monday as a ~985 mb
surface low moves northeast off the coast. Therefore, some stronger
wind gusts may be possible with any convection in the region. Weak
instability depicted by forecast soundings in the area would
indicate a relatively low threat of convectively induced severe wind
gusts. However, some convective enhancement of already strong
synoptic flow may be possible, particularly along the coast.

..Bentley.. 02/23/2025

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