ACUS01 KWNS 221240
SWODY1
SPC AC 221238

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Sat May 22 2021

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe hail and wind along with a few tornadoes are
possible across the central and southern High Plains this afternoon
through about dusk.

...Central and southern High Plains...
Within a meridional mid to upper-level flow regime downstream of an
amplified trough over the West, the western extent of mid 50s to low
60s surface dew points have reached the High Plains of eastern
CO/NM. While some eastward mixing will occur, multiple rounds of
scattered thunderstorms are expected to begin during the early
afternoon. Low-level hodographs initially may remain modest, but
should enlarge with time by late afternoon. A mixed mode of
supercells evolving into broader clusters is anticipated,
particularly in two regimes focused on eastern NM and separately in
northeast CO to western NE. Moderate buoyancy should develop within
confined corridors just ahead of this convection which should
support potential for a few tornadoes, in addition to severe hail
and wind.

...Central TX...
An MCV located just east of San Antonio should gradually advance
northwest across central TX through this afternoon. Low-topped
showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to peak in coverage
from late morning through afternoon. A belt of enhanced 0-1 km shear
within the eastern quadrant of the MCV coupled with limited
boundary-layer heating may be sufficient for the threat of
brief/weak tornadoes.

...Northern MN...
Isolated thunderstorms may develop during the late afternoon to
early evening along the trailing portion of a modest warm conveyor
belt along/just ahead of a slow-moving cold front. The presence of
an upstream mid-level ridge over the Dakotas within a pronounced
gradient of mid-level westerlies suggest the corridor of severe
potential should remain spatially confined. Isolated severe hail and
locally damaging winds are possible.

..Grams/Mosier.. 05/22/2021

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 231208
SWODY1
SPC AC 231207

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0707 AM CDT Sun May 23 2021

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN
SD/NE...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a
large portion of the western Great Plains. The most likely corridor
for a few tornadoes and significant severe wind/hail is from western
South Dakota to the central High Plains.

...Western/central SD to the CO/KS border...
A surface cyclone in the lee of the Front Range will deepen as it
tracks north-northeast into western SD by this evening. Northward
advancement of the low in tandem with the surface warm front will
result in poleward advection of upper 50s to lower 60s surface dew
points towards the SD/ND border. Moderately steep mid-level lapse
rates of 7-7.5 C/km should support an increasingly expansive plume
of moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg by peak heating.

Pronounced mid-level height falls will overspread the region as a
vort max embedded within the basal portion of the broader trough
over AZ ejects northeast. Accompanied by an intense speed max,
thunderstorms will rapidly develop by early to mid-afternoon within
a strengthening deep-layer shear regime. Supercells will be favored
initially but a quick transition into a northeast-moving QLCS is
expected near the WY/SD/NE/CO border areas given the meridional flow
regime. Large hail will be likely mainly early, with severe wind
gusts becoming the primary hazard as upscale growth occurs across
western portions of SD/NE.

The potential for a few tornadoes is apparent across three primary
corridors within the ENH and SLGT risk regions. First, any storm in
proximity to the surface cyclone and warm front, where locally
enhanced 0-1 km SRH (at or above 200 m2/s2) will exist. Second,
embedded QLCS circulations are also possible as the line matures
during the late afternoon to early evening. Finally to the south of
the QLCS, a couple discrete supercells may persist through about
dusk near the CO/KS border amid plentiful low-level moisture/SRH.

...Southern High Plains...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during
the afternoon in the vicinity of the dryline from the Raton Mesa
vicinity to the Trans-Pecos of far west TX. A mix of supercells and
multicell structures will be most favored in the Raton Mesa vicinity
along the glancing periphery of the ejecting trough. Large hail,
severe wind gusts, and a tornado or two are possible.

...Northeast...
Convective coverage will likely remain sparse owing to modest
convergence along a predominately west/east-oriented cold front,
which will be pushing south across the region this afternoon.
Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, surface temperatures warming
into the 80s amid upper 50s to low 60s dew points should support
weak buoyancy with MLCAPE of 250-750 J/kg. Along the periphery of a
mid-level speed max ejecting across northern ME, adequate and nearly unidirectional deep-layer shear will exist for a few cells capable
of producing locally damaging winds.

..Grams/Mosier.. 05/23/2021

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 191259
SWODY1
SPC AC 191257

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER MISSOURI/OHIO VALLEYS...MID-ATLANTIC...AND
CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Damaging thunderstorm wind and isolated large hail are possible from
portions of the central High Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. A tornado
threat also exists over parts of the central Gulf Coast States to
southwestern Georgia, east of the inland track of Tropical Storm
Claudette.

...Synopsis...
In mid/upper levels, the main belt of northern-stream westerlies
will become more cyclonic through the period from the northern
Rockies to the Northeastern CONUS, as a series of shortwaves lead to
height falls. As this occurs, the strong and persistent anticyclone
to the south, over the Desert Southwest, will shift southward
slightly, with the 500-mb high approaching the southern border of AZ
by the end of the period. In between, a perturbation initially
apparent in moisture-channel imagery over UT will move eastward,
reaching southern WY and the CO Western Slope by 00Z. This trough
should move over parts of the central Plains overnight, potentially
with some convective vorticity reinforcement.

Farther east, a strong shortwave trough will move from its present
location over the western Lake Superior region and WI across the
rest of the upper Great Lakes, with some weakening expected by 00Z
as it reaches the Lake Erie vicinity. The trough should pivot
eastward from there to southern New England by 12Z tomorrow. A weak
mid/upper low will remain over east-central/southeast TX in the CLL
area, as the perturbation accompanying T.S. Claudette ejects
northeastward across MS/AL.

The 11Z surface analysis showed a cold front across portions of
southeastern ON and Lake Ontario, which should move eastward/
southeastward into parts of NY and New England today into tonight.
The wavy frontal zone extended through a low over southern WI,
southwestward across extreme southeastern NE to another low near the
southern part of the CO/KS line. Frontolysis is expected along the
High Plains portion of the boundary today, though easterly flow
components to its north and relatively maximized low-level moisture
will persist.

...Central Plains...
Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms should develop this
afternoon over western parts of the outlook area, from the NE
Panhandle across parts of eastern CO. As this activity moves
roughly eastward through the late afternoon and early evening, it
will encounter greater moisture and intensify, offering the threat
for damaging gusts and large hail. The wind threat will
increase/maximize when upscale cold-pool aggregation and related
forced ascent can occur, while the foregoing boundary layer remains
deep and well-mixed, favoring downdraft acceleration. As such, the
potential for significant/65+ kt gusts is maintained over parts of
the High Plains.

As aforementioned height falls occur from this area northward, winds
aloft will become more difluent and strengthen slightly,
contributing to favorable deep shear. Meanwhile, large-scale ascent
and low-level mass response will increase with the approach of the
UT perturbation, leading to increased convergence north of the
remnant front, near a lee trough. Destabilization will occur aloft
with the DCVA and in the boundary layer from strong diurnal/diabatic
heating, leading to steep lapse rates, with peak MLCAPE in the
2000-2500 J/kg range. This will support the initial development and
upscale growth. Eastward extent of the nocturnal wind threat into
lower elevations and greater MLCINH (but also a strengthening
southerly LLJ) is uncertain, and largely dependent on depth/strength
of the MCS cold pool.

...Lower Missouri/Ohio Valleys...
Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms in clusters are possible
this afternoon and evening, offering damaging gusts and severe hail.
Aggregated outflow from the prior day's and night's convection has
left a boundary across parts of northeastern KY and southern IN/IL,
to near STL, and west-northwestward across northern MO. Isolated
severe hail may be noted this morning with elevated convection north
of the boundary, though the supportive west-southwesterly to
westerly LLJ branch should weaken over the next few hours.

Despite weak shortwave ridging behind the upper Great Lakes trough,
strong low-level moisture/heating are likely along and south of the
boundary, which may drift back northward over parts of MO. A
boundary-parallel corridor of MLCAPE in the 3000-4000 J/kg range is
possible, amidst surface dew points from the upper 60s to low 70s F,
weak CINH, and a deep troposphere to aid in the development of
deeply buoyant profiles. Although forecast soundings suggest modest
deep shear, localized low-level shear/vorticity enhancement by the
boundary, and well-mixed subcloud layers on the warm side, may aid
storm organization as well. Low-level warm/moist advection may help
some of the convection to persist at severe levels tonight across
the Ohio Valley region. A relative minimum in severe potential may
exist between this regime and that over the central Plains; however,
confidence in that is not high enough yet to carve out lower
unconditional probabilities.

...Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...
Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form
through this afternoon over western parts of the outlook area,
especially over portions of western/central PA toward northern MD,
and move eastward with the threat for strong-severe gusts and large
hail. Some guidance indicates the potential for upscale clustering
over the lower DE Valley region and/or NJ before activity moves
offshore. Large-scale lift is expected to increase over the region
ahead of the upper Great Lakes shortwave trough, spreading ahead of
the cold front. Meanwhile, low-level destabilization will occur
diurnally, steepening deep-layer lapse rates with favorable moisture
in place. An area of 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE should result, amidst
favorable deep shear. Although low-level flow will be weak and
veered, a 45-55-kt 500-mb speed max should shift over the region,
contributing to effective-shear magnitudes in the 35-45-kt range.
Organized multicells and isolated supercells are possible.

A separate area of thunderstorms should develop this afternoon
across portions of northeastern New England, along or ahead of the
cold front, offering isolated damaging gusts and marginally severe
hail. A zone of regionally maximized large-scale UVV -- preceding a
compact mid/upper cyclone and related shortwave trough now located
over western QC southeast of James Bay -- should spread over the
region atop a destabilizing boundary layer with diurnally minimized
MLCINH. A well-mixed boundary layer will support potential for
hail/gusts to reach the surface, beneath 500-1200 J/kg MLCAPE.
Effective-shear magnitudes around 30-40 kt will support some
storm-scale organization.

...Gulf Coast...
See tornado watch 284 and related mesoscale discussion for the
near-term tornado potential with what now is T.S. Claudette. This
highly asymmetric and strongly sheared cyclone is forecast by NHC to
turn northeastward, then east-northeastward across MS/AL through the
period. [See NHC advisories for latest specific track/intensity
forecasts and tropical watches/warnings.] The tornado potential
should remain displaced well away from the center, across those
portions of the outer eastern semicircle that can destabilize
sufficiently to support sustained supercells. That condition will
remain most probable relatively close to the coast, both in
persistent convergence/convective bands initially located over
southwestern AL and the FL Panhandle, southward over the Gulf.
Isolated discrete supercells also are possible east of the bands.

Theta-e advection and diurnal heating should destabilize the
boundary layer across the FL Panhandle, southeastern AL and perhaps southwestern GA as favorable low-level shear/hodographs spread
eastward through the outlook area. The tornado threat should
diminish this evening, both with inland/northeastward extent and
with time, as Claudette continues to gain distance from the Gulf,
flow veers to its south, and the most-favorable buoyancy and wind
profiles become more displaced from each other.

..Edwards/Broyles.. 06/19/2021

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 200533
SWODY1
SPC AC 200532

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
IOWA TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
ENHANCED RISK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ALONG WITH PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are expected across the Midwest into the
lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley. Large hail, severe/damaging
winds, and a few tornadoes are possible. Damaging winds and a couple
of tornadoes are also possible across the Southeast.

...Midwest to Lower Great Lakes...

Late Saturday central High Plains convection has spread downstream
and matured into a significant MCS as it tracks east along the NE/KS
border. Forward propagation appears to be reasonably similar to the
latest NAM with the leading edge of the MCS likely spreading across southwestern into south-central IA early in the period. One concern
is how poorly the models are handling the strong, sustained
convection across northern MO. This activity continues to propagate
northwest and will likely be absorbed into a larger complex by
daybreak. The disruptive potential of this interaction is unknown.
Even so, it appears a corridor of strong instability should evolve
from northern IL into southern lower MI. Approaching convectively
induced short-wave trough, strong heating, and the potential for a
low-level confluence zone to be draped across this region suggest
the potential for significant severe. Have opted to extend the ENH
Risk downstream across southern lower MI and adjacent portions of
northern IN/northwest OH as forecast soundings are impressively
buoyant and strongly sheared. Profiles favor supercells but the
early-day MCS will likely continue, in some form, through the day as
it spreads downstream. If supercells evolve, tornadoes and large
hail threat will increase with this activity. Otherwise, damaging
winds can be expected.

Later in the afternoon, surface heating should contribute to frontal
convection that will initiate across the upper MS Valley, then
spread/develop along the wind shift into eastern KS. Steep lapse
rates, strong surface-6km shear, and abundant instability suggest
the potential for very large hail with supercells in the wake of the
early-day MCS.

...Southeast...

Remnants of Claudette continue to shift downstream across AL into
GA/northern FL. Low-level shear will remain strong from northern FL
into coastal NC much of the period. While numerous showers/storms
will be ongoing at daybreak, latest NAM suggests a narrow corridor
of steeper surface-3km lapse rates within the zone of stronger shear
from northeast FL through coastal SC. This may increase the
potential for damaging winds and tornadoes. For these reasons have
increased severe probabilities across this region.

..Darrow/Lyons.. 06/20/2021

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ACUS01 KWNS 201938
SWODY1
SPC AC 201937

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

Valid 202000Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
EXTREME EASTERN IOWA ACROSS CHICAGOLAND TO NORTHWEST OHIO AND
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
ENHANCED RISK...AND ALSO OVER PARTS OF GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are expected across the Midwest into the
lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley. Large hail, severe/damaging
winds, and a few tornadoes are possible. Damaging winds and a couple
of tornadoes are also possible across the Southeast.

...20Z Update...

...Southeast Coast...
Air mass downstream of Tropical Depression Claudette continues to
destabilize amid modest heating and ample low-level moisture. As
mentioned in MCD #1034, a couple of transient supercells may pose an
isolated risk for a tornado or two through the afternoon. The
highest conditional risk for a tornado appears to be over parts of
eastern NC during the afternoon due to the larger hodographs.
Additionally, based on recent trends and the location of center of
TD Claudette, the severe risk across southeast GA has diminished
enough to remove Slight Risk-equivalent probabilities. Isolated
threat across southern GA/northern FL merits continued inclusion of
5% wind probabilities.

...Elsewhere...
Forecast delineated outlined in the previous outlook (discussion
below) remains valid and no changes are needed.

..Mosier.. 06/20/2021

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021/

...MO to OH...
Current water vapor loop shows a convectively augmented vort max
over northern MO. New thunderstorm development has occurred in the
past couple of hours in this region, with a corridor of rapid heating/destabilization occurring to the east from northeast MO into
northern IL. Storms will likely intensify through the afternoon
along this axis, with the risk of damaging winds, large hail, and
isolated tornadoes. 12z CAM solutions differ on the handling of
this cluster, but the potential appears to exist for a longer-lived
bowing structure that would track all the way into northern OH this
evening. Please refer to MCD #1032 for short-term details.

...MN/WI/IA/IL...
Latest surface analysis shows a low over west-central MN. clearing
skies ahead of the low, along with southerly low-level winds, will
help to warm/moisten and destabilize this area by mid-afternoon. A
consensus of model guidance shows intense thunderstorm development
later today over southeast MN, southwest WI, and parts of
northern/eastern IA. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible
with these storms. A combination of remnant cloud debris and
outflow boundaries complicate the scenario, but also increase the
conditional risk of supercells and perhaps a few tornadoes this
evening. If the storms over MO do not materialize into a
longer-lived bow, then this area of storms may persist for several
hours and track eastward across the ENH risk area.

...GA/SC/NC...
The remnants of Claudette continue to affect parts of GA and the
Carolinas today, with relatively strong low-level winds from
southeast GA into southern SC. Considerable daytime heating and
ample low level moisture will provide favorable thermodynamics for a
few intense afternoon thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts
and a few tornadoes.

...Southeast CO into southern KS late tonight...
A surface cold front will extend from eastern CO into southern KS
tonight, providing the focus for a few evening/overnight
thunderstorms. Sufficient CAPE/shear along this zone will pose a
risk of hail in the strongest storms.

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 161629
SWODY1
SPC AC 161628

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1028 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024

Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
Morning water-vapor imagery depicts a midlevel shortwave trough
tracking eastward from eastern MT into the Dakotas. This feature
will continue eastward across the northern Plains/Canadian Prairies
into the overnight/early morning hours. In the 04-12Z time frame,
associated cooling aloft atop a cool/stable boundary layer will
contribute to weak elevated instability across the Upper Midwest.
Given strong low-level warm advection and midlevel ascent preceding
the trough, isolated thunderstorms are possible.

Farther south, a separate low-level jet will promote a band of
showers over the Upper TX Coast during the overnight hours. Related
low-level warming/moistening will contribute to weak instability,
though dry air aloft should generally limit lightning potential.

..Weinman.. 11/16/2024

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ACUS01 KWNS 171632
SWODY1
SPC AC 171630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

Valid 171630Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts
of west/northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma this evening and
continuing through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe wind
gusts and a few tornadoes.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level low/trough
over northwest Mexico with a downstream ridge centered over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. A mid-level vorticity maximum near the
middle part of the Gulf of California will pivot east into Chihuahua
by mid evening while the larger-scale trough becomes negatively
tilted and moves northeastward into the southern High Plains. In
the low levels, cyclogenesis over northern Mexico will gradually
evolve today before the surface low deepens tonight reaching the
northwest TX/western OK vicinity at the end of the period.
Seasonably moist air via southeasterly flow from the western Gulf
will advect into west TX before a Pacific front sweeps eastward
across the Chihuahuan Desert and portions of the southern High
Plains tonight. An attendant warm frontal zone will advance
northward from north TX into OK late.

...Southern Great Plains...
The 12 UTC Fort Worth, TX observed sounding showed an adequately
moist/deep moist layer featuring a mean mixing ratio of 12.6 g/kg.
The richer low-level moisture, featuring dewpoints in the mid-upper
60s as of late morning, is currently near the I-35 corridor from the
Metroplex and areas south/southeast. Moisture advection will
contribute to gradual destabilization through this evening across
parts of west TX northeastward into southwest OK despite
considerable cloud cover through the day. As an intense 100-kt
500-mb speed max moves from Chihuahua into west TX overnight,
large-scale ascent will favor the development of scattered
thunderstorms initially developing near the Permian Basin vicinity
and becoming more widespread as very strong low-level warm advection
attendant to an intensifying LLJ develops tonight. Model guidance
indicates 250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across the destabilizing warm sector.
A forced band of storms will likely evolve tonight across west TX
and rapidly move northeast in the area southeast of the surface low
track. As the squall line matures, the propensity for severe gusts
will probably increase despite relatively poor lapse given the
intense flow expected to develop. It remains uncertain if cellular
development will occur either ahead of the line or be loosely
maintained in parts of the larger band of storms. Nonetheless,
elongated and enlarged hodographs will favor a risk for scattered
severe gusts and possibly a tornado risk, especially as the squall
line encounters greater moisture from west-central TX northeastward
into southwest OK late.

..Smith/Weinman.. 11/17/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 181301
SWODY1
SPC AC 181259

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA
AND FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms may continue to produce occasional strong to severe
gusts and perhaps a couple brief tornadoes across parts of north
Texas into central Oklahoma this morning. A threat for a few
tornadoes and damaging winds will also exist this afternoon and
evening from parts of east Texas into Louisiana and vicinity.

...Synopsis...
A negatively tilted shortwave trough over the southern High Plains
this morning will eject northeastward across the central Plains and
mid MO Valley through this evening. Attendant 80-100 kt mid-level
jet will likewise overspread OK/KS into western MO by late
afternoon, while a strong (50-60+ kt) southerly low-level jet aids
in northward moisture transport across parts of the southern/central
Plains and lower/mid MS Valley. At the surface, a deep low over
western OK will develop northeastward through the day in tandem with
the ejecting shortwave trough, eventually reaching the Upper Midwest
late tonight. A related cold front will sweep quickly eastward
across the southern/central Plains and into the mid MS Valley
through the period, before decelerating over the lower MS Valley
late tonight into early Tuesday morning.

...Southern Plains...
With low-level winds remaining very strong per area VWPs (up to
50-60 kt at 1 km AGL), an ongoing QLCS across central/southern OK
into north-central TX may continue to pose a risk for occasional
strong to severe winds in the short term this morning as it moves east-northeastward. Ample low-level shear will also support a
continued threat for embedded circulations and a couple brief QLCS
tornadoes this morning. This line is expected to outpace better
low-level moisture return and already weak instability in the next
couple of hours (see very weak surface-based instability in 12Z
soundings from OUN/FWD). Accordingly, nearly all guidance shows
gradual weakening of the line over the next several hours as it
moves into eastern OK and northeast TX. Still, at least an isolated
threat for strong to damaging winds and perhaps a tornado could
persist, even as the thermodynamic environment becomes increasingly
marginal with eastward extent.

...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
The southern portion of the squall line along/ahead of the cold
front should tend to remain weak through early afternoon, before
potentially restrengthening by mid/late afternoon into the early
evening. This should occur as the line/cold front encounters a more
buoyant airmass across parts of east TX into LA and southern AR,
where MLCAPE may reach up to 500-1000 J/kg with daytime heating,
even though mid-level lapse rates will remain poor. This region will
remain displaced well south of better forcing associated with the
ejecting shortwave trough. Even so, strengthening mid-level
southwesterly flow through the day will support 40-50 kt of
deep-layer shear and some threat for supercells ahead of the front.
Sufficient southerly low-level winds will also support adequate 0-1
km shear and a threat for a few tornadoes. Most high-resolution
guidance shows either the line restrengthening and/or supercells
developing ahead of it by late afternoon. Have therefore included a
Slight Risk from parts of east TX into LA and vicinity to account
for this potential.

...Central Plains/Ozarks into the Mid Missouri Valley...
Later today, a secondary area of thunderstorms may form closer to
the surface low and behind the initial QLCS from north-central OK
into central/eastern KS and eventually the mid MO Valley. This
convection may develop in a modestly steep mid-level lapse rate
environment amid more unidirectional southwesterly deep-layer flow
near the exit region of the mid-level jet. Even though instability
will remain weak, a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms may
pose an isolated risk for gusty winds, a tornado, and perhaps
marginally severe hail. Based on latest guidance trends, have
expanded the Marginal Risk northward some to include parts of the
mid MO Valley.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/18/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 191254
SWODY1
SPC AC 191252

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms producing isolated strong wind gusts and perhaps a
tornado are possible across the central Gulf Coast vicinity today.

...Central Gulf Coast...
The primary upper cyclone, with multiple embedded shortwave troughs,
will evolve into a closed mid/upper-level low over the northern
Plains and Upper Midwest today. A deep surface low over MN this
morning should continue to slowly occlude as it moves northward into
Canada by this evening. A cold front extends southward from this low
to the lower MS Valley/central Gulf Coast states. Showers and
thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across southern LA/MS/AL
along and ahead of the front. Poor lapse rates noted on the observed
12Z sounding from LIX, along with cloudiness and widespread
pre-frontal precipitation will generally hinder any more than weak destabilization from occurring over land through this afternoon.
Even so, the southern extent of a 30-40 kt south-southwesterly
low-level jet is forecast to migrate slowly eastward today across
the central Gulf Coast vicinity. A brief waterspout and/or tornado
appears possible with low-topped rotating cells along or very near
the coast given adequate 0-1 km SRH and greater low-level moisture
present (generally 70s surface dewpoints). Otherwise, isolated
damaging wind gusts may occur with convection moving eastward along
or just ahead of the front. Meager instability should keep the
overall severe threat isolated.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/19/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 221243
SWODY1
SPC AC 221242

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
A well-amplified mid/upper-level pattern features synoptic-scale
cyclones on either side of the CONUS:

1. In the East, the cyclone core is elongated west-southwest/east-
northeast from WV to southern New England, occasionally exhibiting
two centers at 500 mb. This cyclone should pivot offshore
gradually, with a more consolidated center south of RI and east of
NJ by 12Z tomorrow. Associated thunder tonight should remain
offshore.

2. For the Pacific cyclone, a double center was evident as well,
with the strongest, closest, and most important one being near
45N131W. This is becoming the primary low as the other one well to
the west devolves into an open shortwave trough. The eastern low
should pivot northward, offshore from the Northwest Coast, toward
Vancouver Island. Meanwhile, a series of small shortwaves and
vorticity lobes will move ashore in the preceding southwest flow,
predominantly this afternoon through tonight -- each contributing
shots of cooling/destabilization aloft, and atop the weakly unstable
marine air mass. Forecast soundings accordingly suggest that the
midlevel inversion should rise/cool such that modest buoyancy
(overland MUCAPE generally under 250 J/kg) extends upward into icing
layers suitable for at least isolated/brief lightning, especially
from around 00Z onward. A few thunderstorms are possible near the
coast, as well as embedded in the deep low/middle-level moisture
fetch impinging on higher terrain in northern CA.

..Edwards.. 11/22/2024

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ACUS01 KWNS 231243
SWODY1
SPC AC 231241

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0641 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
In mid/upper levels, the presence of a cyclone near the coastal
Northeast, and progressive synoptic ridging moving eastward over the
central CONUS, should contribute to keeping most of the lower 48
states too dry and/or stable in low/middle levels for thunderstorms.
A substantial synoptic-scale trough is apparent in moisture-channel
imagery from north-central BC south-southwestward, offshore from the
Pacific Northwest and CA. Shortwave troughs and vorticity lobes
will continue to eject inland within southwest flow, across the
Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, as a cutoff cyclone forms
offshore from Vancouver Island and retrogrades southwestward.

One of those shortwave perturbations is evident from central OR to
northern CA, and will destabilize a marginally moist low/middle-
level profile enough to support isolated thunderstorms as far inland
today as portions of MT. This feature should develop a small,
closed cyclone overnight near the southern part of the AB/SK border,
while a trailing perturbation crosses northern CA and the northern
Great Basin. Ahead of that feature, and beneath cold midlevel
temperatures closer to the cyclone core, isolated thunderstorms will
be possible near the Pacific Coast, from northwestern CA to the
Olympic Peninsula. The greatest buoyancy and deepest convective
towers accessing the marine layer should remain offshore, though
strong gusts or small hail may accompany the strongest near-shore
cells inland a short distance. Severe potential appears too
isolated and conditional to warrant an outlook area.

..Edwards/Leitman.. 11/23/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 241232
SWODY1
SPC AC 241231

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0631 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
In mid/upper levels, a belt of relatively strong flow will bend
cyclonically from CA to the central Great Plains, changing curvature
through a low-amplitude, eastward moving synoptic ridge over the
Upper Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, then cyclonically again across
the Mid-Atlantic and New England. A long-lasting, deeply occluded
cyclone will move eastward from the Canadian Maritime Provinces
through the period. Upstream, a smaller cyclone -- initially
located over southern SK -- will move slowly eastward to southern MB
by 12Z tomorrow, with trough southward over the Dakotas. However,
too little moisture will be available for a general thunderstorm
outlook. Farther west, a synoptic-scale cyclone offshore from the
Olympic Peninsula and Vancouver Island will pivot slowly southward
then eastward through tonight, but will remain over Pacific waters.
Intervening ridging should remain over the northern Rockies and
vicinity. However, cold air aloft and steep low/middle-level lapse
rates will overlie a moist marine layer, supporting isolated to
widely scattered, episodic thunder mainly offshore. Some of this
activity may move inland before dissipating in more-stable low-level conditions.

A shortwave trough -- evident in moisture-channel imagery south and
east of the ridge from the Yellowstone region across the northern
Great Basin to central CA -- is forecast to move quickly eastward
across the central Rockies and central Plains through the period,
phasing with the SK/MB low by 12Z tomorrow. The associated cold
front was drawn at 11Z today across an area of low pressure
extending from northeastern NE to southwestern KS, then arching over southeastern CO. A warm front was drawn over southeastern KS and
southwestern MO, with a secondary warm front over southern IA and
northern IL. The low should consolidate today across northeastern
KS into northern MO, and move to near the southwestern shore of Lake
Michigan by the end of the period, when the cold front reaches to
near a line from BMI-STL-FSM-SPS-HOB. Scattered elevated showers
are possible late tonight near and north of the warm front, across
parts of northeastern IL, WI, Lower MI, IN, and OH. However, the
warm conveyor will lack rich moisture, and forecast soundings
reasonably suggest buoyancy will be too shallow and strongly capped
for an areal thunderstorm threat.

..Edwards/Leitman.. 11/24/2024

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ACUS01 KWNS 251228
SWODY1
SPC AC 251226

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0626 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe-thunderstorm areas are forecast through tonight.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
A progressive, lower-amplitude pattern will prevail across the CONUS
this period, compared to the preceding week. A small cyclone now
centered over the southern SK/MB border area is forecast to
accelerate slightly and elongate southeastward, reaching that part
of ON just north of the MN border by 12Z tomorrow. As this occurs,
a basal shortwave trough -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery
from eastern SD to western CO -- should move eastward. This trough
will cross the mid/upper Mississippi Valley in the 21-03Z time
frame, then become negatively tilted, reaching Georgian Bay,
southern ON, and Lake Erie by 12Z.

The associated surface frontal-wave low was analyzed at 11Z from a
low over northern IL, southwestward near STL, FYV and ADM, to a weak
low near HOB. By 00Z, the main/northern low should reach eastern
Lower MI, with cold front across western parts of OH/KY/TN, northern
parts of LA/MS, and the TX Gulf Coastal Plain. By 12Z, the cold
front should extend from eastern PA across western parts of VA/NC,
northern GA/AL, southern MS/LA, and across the northwestern Gulf
shelf waters to near BRO.

Farther west, another mid/upper-level cyclone was centered over
Pacific waters west of OR, near 44N130W. This feature is expected
to devolve to an open-wave, positively tilted trough as it
approaches the coast today. The trough should cross the coast
between the Olympic Peninsula and northwestern CA obliquely, from
north-south, from 00Z to 12Z. Preceding the trough, DCVA/cooling in
midlevels will steepen lapse rates and support potential for
isolated thunderstorms, particularly over the relatively moist
Pacific boundary layer near the coast.

...Lower Mississippi to Tennessee Valleys...
Stronger deep-layer/large-scale lift will occur near the front in
the Ohio Valley to north-central Appalachians, but with poor
moisture return greatly limiting overall buoyancy. Somewhat greater
moisture -- but still in quite incompletely modified return-flow
trajectories with dewpoints generally low/mid 60s F in a shallow
layer -- is forecast in a narrow prefrontal corridor over the lower
Mississippi to Tennessee Valleys from late afternoon through this
evening. However, weak low/middle-level lapse rates (only barely
above moist adiabatic) will limit buoyancy there, with MLCAPE mostly
remaining under 500 J/kg. Briefly enlarged low-level hodographs
appear in some forecast soundings along or just east of the
prefrontal moist axis, especially from northern/eastern LA to
northern MS, suggesting non-zero storm-scale rotation potential for
any cell(s) that can mature fast enough before moving out of
surface-based inflow. At this time, severe risk appears too minimal
and conditional for an outlook. However, the scenario will be
revisited for evidence of greater unconditional potential, in
succeeding outlook cycles.

..Edwards/Leitman.. 11/25/2024

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ACUS01 KWNS 301241
SWODY1
SPC AC 301240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024

Valid 301300Z - 011200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

...Discussion...
Longwave troughing will persist east of the Rockies, with prevalent
surface high pressure and cool/stable conditions. This will
contribute to a virtually nil thunderstorm potential across the
CONUS. An exception may the possibility of a few lightning flashes
in the immediate lee of Lakes Erie and Ontario, although this
potential should remain limited/sporadic overall.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 11/30/2024

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ACUS01 KWNS 011300
SWODY1
SPC AC 011258

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 AM CST Sun Dec 01 2024

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Discussion...
Longwave troughing and prevalent cyclonic flow aloft will continue
to prevail east of the Rockies while an upper ridge builds over the
West. A cool/stable pattern via the influence of high pressure and
continental trajectories will considerably limit convective
potential today and tonight. Shallow convection will persist in lake
effect bands off Lakes Erie and Ontario, but the potential for
lightning flashes should remain limited. Across far south Texas,
warm advection along a coastal front near the lower Texas coast
could lead to an increase in convection, although the potential for thunderstorms inland is expected to remain low.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/01/2024

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ACUS01 KWNS 021252
SWODY1
SPC AC 021250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0650 AM CST Mon Dec 02 2024

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Discussion...
Longwave troughing will remain prevalent over the East with
continued surface high pressure and mostly dry/stable conditions
east of the Rockies. This scenario will considerably limit deep
convective potential. A couple of lightning flashes could occur
across parts of Deep South Texas, in conjunction with relatively
rich low-level moisture and weak but persistent forcing for ascent.
Low-topped convective snow bands, potentially including a couple of
lightning flashes, are also expected over portions of the Great Lakes today.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/02/2024

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ACUS01 KWNS 031301
SWODY1
SPC AC 031259

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the south Texas Coast, but
severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Discussion including South Texas...
A persistent longwave trough over the eastern CONUS will be
reinforced by an amplifying and southeastward-digging upper trough
over the Canadian Prairies toward the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
through tonight. A continued prevalence of surface high pressure and cool/stable continental trajectories will considerably limit and
spatially confine thunderstorm potential. Across Deep South Texas,
weak mid-level height rises are expected, with persistent weak
low-level ascent and moistening near a coastal boundary, further
influenced by strengthening southeasterly low-level flow/warm
advection late today and tonight. Elevated convection over inland
areas on the cool side of the boundary may produce occasional
lightning, potentially in a northward-expanding fashion tonight.
Modest surface-based destabilization may develop inland along the
immediate coast late this afternoon into tonight, but low-level SRH
and lapse rates/parcel accelerations are expected to remain weak,
and thus severe thunderstorms are unlikely.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/03/2024

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ACUS01 KWNS 041259
SWODY1
SPC AC 041258

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected from North/East Texas to the
ArkLaMiss today and tonight. Severe thunderstorms are not currently
expected.

...East/Southeast Texas to southwest Louisiana...
Widely scattered elevated thunderstorms have developed through the
early morning hours across east-central/parts of North Texas, with
persistent convection also off the coast of South Texas near a weak
surface wave, and into the maritime warm sector where a narrow zone
of near 70F/lower 70s F dewpoints reside. Some northward inland
advancement of the Texas coastal front is expected today with a
related increase in low-level moisture. However, low-level lapse
rates are expected to remain weak due to semi-persistent multi-layer
cloud cover and muted heating.

While low-level SRH is currently weak per 12z observed soundings and
regional WSR-88D VWP data, it is expected to increase within the
zone of warm advection, particularly near the inland-advancing
frontal boundary, coincident with modest surface-based
destabilization this afternoon along the middle/upper Texas coast,
and eventually southwest Louisiana this evening. While a few weakly
rotating storms could occur offshore, current thinking is that the
supercell and related tornado/wind potential will remain limited
inland, largely due to the poor low-level lapse rates and weak
parcel accelerations.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/04/2024

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ACUS01 KWNS 051256
SWODY1
SPC AC 051255

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Discussion...
An upper trough will continue to shift quickly east-northeastward
today over the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast, with a secondary
speed max/clipper-type wave spreading southeastward over
Manitoba/northern Ontario toward the Upper Great Lakes tonight. Over
the Southwest, an upper low will remain quasi-stationary over the
southern Arizona and northwest Mexico vicinity.

Along the middle Gulf Coast, a few isolated elevated thunderstorms
may still occur early today, but the overall convective potential is
expected to dwindle as a cold front continues south-southeastward
into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Elsewhere, isolated lightning
flashes could occur tonight with a potential increase in elevated
convection across far West Texas/far southern New Mexico in advance
of an upper low over northwest Mexico, and possibly near the Deep
South Texas coast. Severe storms are unlikely in each of these
scenarios as overall buoyancy will be limited.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/05/2024

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ACUS01 KWNS 061255
SWODY1
SPC AC 061254

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected. Isolated weak thunderstorms
are possible today from southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico to
East Texas.

...Discussion...
Rising heights are expected today over much of the northern tier and
eastern seaboard in the wake of an exiting prominent upper-level
trough, while a slow-moving upper low persists over southern
portions of Arizona/New Mexico and northwest Mexico. A few
thunderstorms will be possible near/east of this upper low,
potentially including parts of southeast Arizona, southern New
Mexico, and far west Texas within a marginally unstable environment.
Modestly increasing warm advection/elevated moisture transport into
tonight should lead to an increase in elevated convection across
Texas, some of which will be capable of lightning, particularly
across central/north-central Texas tonight.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/06/2024

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ACUS01 KWNS 071257
SWODY1
SPC AC 071255

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Discussion...
Within a split flow regime, the southern-stream upper low over the
Southwest Deserts/northern Mexico will become more
east-northeastward progressive today, while a low-amplitude belt of
progressive westerlies evolves across the northern tier and Canada.

Semi-persistent and east/northeastward-expanding thunderstorm
potential today will be focused across much of central/east/north
Texas and possibly nearby parts of the ArkLaTex and/or far southeast
Oklahoma. These will be elevated thunderstorms aided by DPVA and semi-persistent warm advection and elevated moisture transport.
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely given the limited buoyancy.
Elsewhere, a few lightning flashes could occur late tonight near
coastal Washington as lapse rates steepen in the wake of an
inland-advancing front.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/07/2024

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ACUS01 KWNS 081243
SWODY1
SPC AC 081242

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Discussion...
Split upper-level flow will initially prevail over the CONUS, with
an east/northeastward-accelerating southern-stream shortwave trough
advancing from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley and Lower
Ohio Valley, while an additional upper trough amplifies over the
Northwest. A broad area of warm advection will support scattered
elevated convection today near the upper Texas coast and southern
Louisiana, northward into North Texas/southeast Oklahoma and the
ArkLaTex region. The potential for lightning-producing convection is
expected to expand east-northeastward toward the ArkLaMiss and
Mid-South into tonight. Due to the elevated nature of the convection
and weak instability, severe weather is not expected.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/08/2024

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ACUS01 KWNS 091259
SWODY1
SPC AC 091257

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into
much of the Southeast States today and tonight. The potential for
severe thunderstorms currently appears low.

...Southeast States...
Neutral height tendencies will tend to prevail over the region as a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Lower Ohio Valley and
Tennessee Valley races east-northward toward the Mid-Atlantic
seaboard. Convergence will tend to remain weak diurnally near a northward-shifting warm front across the Tennessee Valley, until
modest surface cyclogenesis occurs tonight across the ArkLaMiss and
Mid-South, coincident with a stronger secondary cold front
accelerating southeastward across the ArkLaMiss/East Texas.
Semi-steady warm/moist advection will persist in/near the warm
sector spanning parts of Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama into
eventually nearby portions of Georgia and Tennessee.

The persistent warm advection regime over the middle Gulf Coast will
maintain isolated thunderstorm chances through the day. Despite
40-50 knot mid-level flow, weak low to mid-level lapse rates will
modulate updraft intensities and tend to limit the likelihood of
overly organized convection for much of the day.

The potential for thunderstorms should regionally increase tonight
as the aforementioned upstream cold front/modestly deepening surface
low interact with higher theta-e air. Even with favorable low-level moistening/destabilization trends, the scenario may not provide
sufficient destabilization for robust deep convection tonight. As
mentioned in the prior outlook discussion, most convection-allowing
guidance remains rather subdued as far as severe attributes, with
the typically aggressive FV3 being a modest exception.

Subsequent outlooks will closely reevaluate this scenario and the
potential need for low wind/tornado probabilities, as more favorable destabilization trends could prompt more of a severe risk given the severe-conducive deep-layer/low-level shear.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/09/2024

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ACUS01 KWNS 101240
SWODY1
SPC AC 101239

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0639 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
the central Gulf Coast region into central/southern Georgia and the
Florida Panhandle through tonight.

...Synopsis...
In mid/upper levels, mean troughing over the central CONUS will
evolve from positively to near neutrally tilted through the period,
in conjunction with two predominant subsynoptic-scale processes:
1. South-southeastward digging of a cyclone now over extreme
northern MB, reaching the MB/ON border east of Lake Winnipeg by 12Z
tomorrow;
2. Eastward shift of a strong, basal shortwave trough -- now
evident in moisture-channel imagery over northern NM into
south-central AZ -- absorbing a weaker/trailing perturbation and
reaching from middle TN to central LA by the end of the period.

As this occurs, a surface cold front -- analyzed at 11Z from a low
near BNA southwestward across northwestern MS, central LA, middle TX
Coast, and deep south TX -- should extend from western PA across the
southern Appalachians and southwestern AL, to southeastern LA, by
00Z. A low-level, prefrontal confluence/convergence zone may
intensify this evening and tonight over portions of the FL
Panhandle, southeastern AL and southwestern GA. The cold front
should approach and perhaps overtake the confluence zone by 12Z, as
it reaches a position from central PA across the western Carolinas,
to near a MCN-AAF line, then over the northeastern/central Gulf.

...Southeast...
Widely scattered, ongoing thunderstorms clusters are apparent across
portions of southern MS into southeastern LA, with a marginal
potential for a brief tornado or strong-severe gust. See SPC
mesoscale discussion 2255 for near-term coverage of this scenario.
Similarly sporadic, isolated and marginal tornado and severe-gust
potential will exist throughout today and tonight with convection
along and just ahead of the cold front, as well as slowly increasing
convective coverage from late afternoon through overnight in the
prefrontal convergence zone. The warm-sector environment will
remain characterized by a nearly saturated boundary layer with
surface dewpoints commonly in the upper 60s to near 70 F along the
coast, to mid 60s well inland, amidst nearly moist-adiabatic
low-level lapse rates. Somewhat greater boundary-layer instability
is possible this afternoon in the inflow to the near-frontal
convection, as modest heating occurs through cloud breaks. That my
offset weak midlevel lapse rates enough to support peak MLCAPE
around 1000 J/kg from southeastern LA to south-central AL,
decreasing northeastward as well as eastward. An axis of lesser
buoyancy -- with MLCAPE remaining in the 500-800 J/kg range, should
shift eastward tonight near the confluence line, in support of
convection there.

Deep shear should increase from late this afternoon through tonight
with the more neutral tilt of the larger-scale trough aloft, and
related tightening of the mid/upper height gradient over the warm
sector. While strongest flow aloft will remain behind the front, effective-shear magnitudes of 45-55 kt and elongated low-level
hodographs are forecast from the northeastern Gulf Coast to the
Carolinas. As the basal shortwave trough approaches (but remains
behind the cold front), the LLJ should strengthen to 45-55 kt
tonight over southern GA, reaching 55-65 kt over eastern NC, with
lengthening but only somewhat curved low-level hodographs. The
northeastward extent of the conditional severe potential may extend
into near-coastal SC/NC; however, poor low- and middle-level lapse
rates (with stable layers apparent in forecast soundings) are
precluding any expansion of unconditional probabilities
northeastward for this outlook cycle. The main (yet marginal)
severe threat for the Carolinas still appears to hold off until
early day 2.

..Edwards/Jewell.. 12/10/2024

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ACUS01 KWNS 111241
SWODY1
SPC AC 111239

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0639 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm winds and a few tornadoes are possible from the
eastern Carolinas to southern New England. Isolated severe
thunderstorms may occur southward into portions of Florida.

...Synopsis...
Moisture-channel imagery showed a substantial mid/upper trough
extending from a cyclone over the MB/ON border southward over the
Mississippi Valley to a strong, basal shortwave trough over portions
of MS/LA. The latter feature is forecast to pivot eastward to the
TN Valley and FL Panhandle through 18Z, then turn northeastward
across WV, western VA and the west-central Carolinas by 00Z. As
that occurs, the entire synoptic trough will become more negatively
tilted, with preceding speed maxima of 160-180-kt at 250 mb, 110-125
kt at 500 mb, and 70-85 kt at 700 mb over parts of the Atlantic
Coast States.

A cold front precedes the main mid/upper trough, and was analyzed at
11Z from east-central PA over western VA to a weak low near AVL,
then across central/southwestern GA and the west-central FL
Panhandle, to the central Gulf. The front should sweep eastward
across VA, the Carolinas, GA and most of FL today, with a 00Z
position progged from VT across western Long Island, over Atlantic
waters to near or just offshore HSE, then southwestward over more of
the Atlantic to southeastern FL. The front should proceed offshore
from the remaining Atlantic Coast by around 12Z tomorrow.

...East Coast States...
An ongoing, prefrontal band of convection, with scattered to widely
scattered embedded thunderstorms, was apparent in radar, satellite
and lightning data from the northeastern Gulf northeastward across
the FL Big Bend region and southern/eastern GA. This activity
should proceed eastward across much of FL and offshore from GA
today, with isolated potential for damaging to severe gusts and/or a
tornado, as it encounters foregoing diabatic surface destabilization
and boundary-layer theta-e advection. The main changes this cycle
are to the associated "marginal area, to:
1. Trim on the southwest edge in deference to ongoing convective
trends (faster than earlier guidance), and
2. Add somewhat more of central/southwestern FL to the
5%-wind/Marginal area to give the trailing part of the main squall
line more room to weaken, as diurnal heating of a moist airmass
somewhat offsets weakening trends in both large-scale and frontal
forcings.

Meanwhile, the most dense potential for damaging to severe gusts is
expected to develop farther north today across central/eastern parts
of the Carolinas, northeastward along the coast into southern New
England. As the shortwave and synoptic troughs assume negative
tilt, synoptic to frontal-scale lift will increase and overlap,
resulting in a narrow band of convection (some with lightning, but
potentially a majority without) firming up into the Mid-Atlantic and
perhaps southern New England. The aforementioned deep-layer wind
maxima will contribute to fast embedded cell motions and downward
momentum transfer within this band. Intense associated gusts
sporadically should penetrate a deeply near-neutral to slightly
above moist-adiabatic layer of lapse rates -- with a shallow
near-surface absolutely stable layer possible -- from around the
Delmarva region northeastward, beneath MUCAPE of around 300-800
J/kg. Buoyancy will become more surface-based with southern extent
from southeastern VA southward, with the greatest values of
low-level shear/SRH and largest hodographs expected over eastern NC
in and near the area of relatively peaked tornado probabilities.
Line-embedded supercells and/or QLCS mesovortices will be the main
tornado concern, with the wind threat more generalized to any
sustained, bow/LEWP segments within the line.

..Edwards/Jewell.. 12/11/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 121218
SWODY1
SPC AC 121217

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0617 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
A mid/upper-level cyclone -- initially over northern ON -- will
break down as another develops across central QC today, within the
same larger-scale troughing regime. As the resulting low ejects
northeastward over northern QC, and synoptic ridging moves from the
Rockies to the Plains States, heights will rise over most of the central/eastern CONUS. The air mass east of the Rockies mostly will
remain too dry and/or stable for thunderstorms, behind the cold
frontal passage related to the departing eastern trough. One
exception may be in the lake-effect regimes east of the lower Great
Lakes, where steep low/middle-level lapse rates will support plumes
of heavy convective snow. However, shallowness of buoyancy/ELs
precludes more than very brief/isolated lightning potential at most,
and the threat appears too conditional and limited for outlook areas.

A cyclone now located off the coast of OR and northwestern CA will
move inland and devolve slightly to a strong shortwave trough,
reaching northern CA and western/southern NV by 00Z. By 12Z, the
trough will reach southern ID, UT and AZ. Strong DCVA/cooling aloft
is expected immediately to its east today and tonight, from the
Great Basin to the Colorado Plateau and UT/southwestern WY.
However, with dry air in low levels over most of the region,
midlevel moisture/buoyancy should remain too weak and isolated for
enough lightning to justify an outlook area.

..Edwards/Jewell.. 12/12/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 131244
SWODY1
SPC AC 131243

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
As heights rise in the East following the departure of a substantial synoptic-scale trough, two strong shortwave troughs will progress
through the midlatitude westerlies upstream, and influence thunder
potential across the western/central CONUS:

1. A leading perturbation -- now apparent over the eastern Great
Basin and southern ID -- should extend from southeastern WY across
east-central CO to eastern NM by 00Z. By the end of the period, the
trough should reach central portions of SD/NE/KS and northwestern
OK, while deepening. A closed 500-mb low may develop on the trough,
either then or within a few hours into day 2, over south-central/
southeastern NE. Strong, foregoing low-level warm advection and
moisture transport will persist through the period, atop a
relatively stable near-surface layer. Increasing thunderstorm
coverage is expected after about 06Z from the middle/upper TX Coast
to the lower Missouri Valley, as increasingly moist parcels above
that stable layer reach LFC. This will occur in concordance with
steepening low/middle-level lapse rates and decreasing MUCINH,
mainly related to the warm advection (but also late DCVA over
northwestern parts of the outlook area). Small hail may fall from
the strongest cells; however, forecast soundings indicate effective
shear, buoyancy and inflow-layer moisture content should be too
small for a severe threat.

2. The trailing shortwave trough -- initially evident in moisture-
channel imagery over the North Pacific around 40N150W -- will move
rapidly eastward and amplify, with preceding large-scale ascent
reaching the CA/OR coastline after 06Z on either side of a low-level
cold front. While lapse rates in the frontal band should be modest,
and buoyancy meager, areas of MUCAPE around 50-200 J/kg, rooted near
700 mb -- may extend deeply enough into suitable icing layers to
support isolated lightning.

..Edwards/Goss.. 12/13/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 141253
SWODY1
SPC AC 141251

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2024

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BAY
AREA AND NEARBY COASTAL CALIFORNIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to marginally severe, low-topped thunderstorms are
possible for a few more hours across the Bay Area and nearby coastal California.

...Synopsis...
A progressive mid/upper-level pattern over the CONUS features two
primary troughs promoting convective potential this period, from
east to west:
1. A strong shortwave trough was apparent in moisture-channel
imagery over the central Plains from west-central NE to western OK,
with a 500-mb low apparent near HYS. The low is expected to move
eastward along I-70 into near COU by 00Z, with trough northward to
southern IA and southward to southern AR. By the end of the period,
the low should reach northeastern IL around IKK, along a trough
aligned roughly from MKE-BNA.
2. A synoptic-scale trough from the Gulf of Alaska to offshore from
the CA Coast, including a small cyclone off western WA and a basal
shortwave now approaching coastal central/northern CA.

At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over KS between ICT-FRI,
with cold front southwestward across southwestern OK and portions of west-central/southwest TX. By 00Z, the low should become nearly
stacked under the 500-mb low over north-central MO, with cold front
extending over northwestern AR, and northeast TX, to near AUS and
between DRT-LRD. Substantial weakening of the front should be
underway by then, especially south of the Ozarks, with surface winds
less than 10 kt on both sides of the front over east and south TX.
The TX portion of the front should nearly dissipate overnight.

...Bay Area and vicinity...
Isolated strong-severe gusts and hail near severe limits are
possible this morning near the coast, in about a 150-nm-long
corridor centered just south of SFO.

A low-level frontal band precedes the basal shortwave trough over
CA, with associated precip forecast to continue spreading obliquely eastward/southeastward down the Sierra and -- to a lesser extent --
over central/southern CA. Behind that, strong cooling aloft --
related to DCVA immediately preceding the mid/upper trough -- is
supporting favorable instability through a deep-enough layer for
thunderstorms, with areas of 200-500 J/kg MLCAPE apparent over the
Pacific marine layer between SFO and the OR border. That plume of
buoyancy will expand southeastward past the MRY area over the next
few hours, combining with favorable deep shear (40-50 kt
effective-shear magnitudes) to support slight onshore penetration of strong/isolated severe thunderstorms, before activity weakens in
lower inland theta-e. Convection should move over the outlook area
through midmorning local time, before the trough passes.

...East to southeast TX...
Large-scale ascent preceding the eastern mid/upper trough -- in the
form of DCVA over northern parts of the thunder outlook area and a
broad plume of low-level WAA/moisture transport -- will continue to
support scattered, predominantly elevated thunderstorm potential
from the Arklatex to the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys.
Farther south across east TX to near the upper TX Coast, isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms are possible through this afternoon.
This activity also will be tied mainly to the WAA plume, and related
isentropic ascent to LFC. Forecast soundings show potential for
inflow-layer parcels to become surface-based amid continuing warming
from both advective and diabatic processes. Wind profiles will veer
with height, though lower midlevel (roughly 600-700 mb) weaknesses
and lack of greater winds even higher in altitude will limit bulk
shear, with effective-shear magnitudes generally remaining below 40
kt. Counterbalancing effects precluding unconditional severe threat
include rising heights throughout the day, stable layers and other
areas of weak lapse rates in midlevels that will keep MLCAPE from
getting much greater than 1000 J/kg, and weakening of both frontal
and large-scale lift with time.

..Edwards/Goss.. 12/14/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 151225
SWODY1
SPC AC 151224

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0624 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024

Valid 151300Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
NORTH TEXAS TO THE OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated hail near severe limits is possible tonight from portions
of north Texas to the Ozarks.

...Synopsis...
In mid/upper levels, a low-amplitude longwave pattern will remain in
place over the CONUS, with progressive shortwave to synoptic troughs
traversing the prevailing westerlies. The leading trough --
currently anchored by a closed low near the northern IL/IN border --
should devolve to an open wave and move to the northern Mid-Atlantic
region by 12Z tomorrow. Meanwhile, a series of shortwaves and
vorticity lobes -- occupying broadly cyclonic flow over much of the
western CONUS -- will consolidate/phase somewhat through the period
while shifting eastward. By 00Z, a loosely organized synoptic
trough will extend from the Dakotas across the central High Plains
to AZ. Overnight, a closed 500-mb low should develop over southern
MB, with the trough extending across central NE/KS to southern NM
and northwestern MX by 12Z.

At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a decaying cold to stationary
front from eastern IL across southern AR, north-central and west-
central TX. This boundary will move slowly northward through the
day and continue to weaken. Meanwhile, cold frontogenesis is
forecast today ahead of the mid/upper trough, and over parts of the central/northern Plains. This Plains front should reach western
parts of MN/IA, northeastern to south-central KS, and the TX
Panhandle by 00Z. By 12Z, the cold front should reach central/
southern IL, the Ozarks, eastern/southern OK, and the TX South
Plains region.

...North TX to the Lower OH Valley...
Episodic, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected
throughout the period, embedded in a plume of low-level warm/moist
advection and moisture transport extending from central/east TX to
the lower Ohio Valley. Through the day, this activity will occur in
weak midlevel lapse rates and modest deep shear, with most or all of
it elevated over a relatively stable, near-surface layer, and
accordingly minimal severe potential. Meanwhile, surface dewpoints
in the 60s F will spread northward into and across much of the
outlook area, as the older boundary becomes diffuse ahead of the
Plains cold front.

Concurrent with height falls aloft and increasing deep shear, the
warm conveyor and accompanying isentropic ascent to LFC should
intensify this evening amid mass response to the consolidation/
approach of the mid/upper trough, and related 45-55-kt LLJ.
Greatest thunderstorm coverage in the plume is expected after about
03Z from near the Red River Valley to the Ozarks, spreading into the
lower Ohio Valley from around 09Z onward. During phases when
convection is still relatively discrete, and around the southern
part of denser/later convective coverage, the most vigorous cells
may produce severe hail. Forecast soundings show a nearly
saturated, near-neutral stability profile in the boundary layer over
north TX to eastern OK, and perhaps into some of northwestern AR,
depending on outflow timing/intensity. This renders profiles that
may be effectively surface-based, with MLCAPE in the 1000-1500 J/kg
rage and slightly greater MUCAPE, but still often containing weak,
near-surface static stability. At this time, severe-gust/tornado
potential appears too conditional and low to draw even marginal
categorical probabilities for those hazards, and the previous
outlook area still appears to capture the consensus of most
probable, favorably positioned convection in the plume as well.

..Edwards/Goss.. 12/15/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 161226
SWODY1
SPC AC 161224

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0624 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2024

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
A progressive mid/upper-level pattern will persist, with the most
important feature being a trough now apparent in moisture-channel
imagery from a low over southeastern MB, across western MN, eastern
NE, central KS, and the TX Panhandle. The main/northern part of
this trough is forecast to weaken and move across the Upper Great
Lakes today. A weaker, positively tilted, basal vorticity banner
will move eastward from the TX Panhandle across much of OK today,
and more slowly moving eastward over northwest TX. By 00Z, this
lobe should weaken and extend from the Ozarks to southern OK and the
Permian Basin, then become diffuse and perhaps dissipate overnight.

As that occurs, a surface cold front -- analyzed at 11Z from eastern
IA across southwestern MO, central/southwestern OK and northwest TX
-- should move eastward/southeastward by 00Z to near a TOL-EVV-DYR-
LIT-DAL-6R6 line. Overnight, the southern part of the front will
move slowly southeastward then become quasistationary, reaching a
position across northern parts of AL/MS/LA, northeast/north-central
TX and the Hill Country. Episodic, widely scattered thunderstorms
in bands and clusters are possible near the front, becoming isolated
to widely scattered in the warm sector.

A few strong thunderstorms may develop this afternoon from the
Arklatex into the Mid-South, near time of peak diurnally driven
buoyancy. This activity will be within the warm-advection/moisture-
transport conveyor, and along/ahead of the surface cold front. A
narrow corridor of prefrontal MLCAPE should range from about 2000
J/kg in northeast TX, where heating and moisture will be greatest,
to around 1000 J/kg in eastern AR. However, during the surface warming/destabilization peak window, surface flow will be veering
and remaining weak, due to the shift of the mid/upper trough and
related large-scale lift and mass response away from the area. This
will act both to shrink hodographs and weaken frontal convergence
with time. Given these offsetting factors, and the increasing
dominance of the unfavorable ones with time during the afternoon,
severe probabilities appear too low and conditional for an outlook
area at this time.

..Edwards/Goss.. 12/16/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 171256
SWODY1
SPC AC 171255

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE RED RIVER REGION INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible tonight through early
morning Wednesday across parts of the Red River region into western Tennessee.

...Synopsis...
In mid/upper levels, nearly zonal flow was evident over the CONUS
from coast to coast, perturbed by several minor shortwaves. One of
these, however, will amplify through the period and influence
convective potential: a trough now apparent in moisture-channel
imagery over the interior Pacific Northwest. This feature will dig southeastward today and begin to phase with a lesser trough now over southeastern MT and eastern WY. The combined trough should reach
western MN, eastern SD, central NE, and central/western CO by 00Z.
By 12Z, the trough should strengthen further, and extend near a line
from DBQ-IRK-TUL-CDS.

At 11Z, an outflow boundary was drawn from northwestern GA across
central parts of AL/MS to northeastern LA and near TXK, where it
intersected a slow-moving, weakening, cold to quasistationary front
drawn near a CRW-CSV-HSV-ELD-CRS line. Farther north, frontogenesis
and cyclogenesis will occur today over the central Plains, as the
amplifying mid/upper trough approaches. By 00Z, a frontal-wave low
should be located near TOP, with cold front southwestward across
south-central KS, northwestern OK, the TX Panhandle, and
northeastern NM. The low should move past PAH into western KY by
12Z, with cold front over eastern to southwestern AR, central to
southwest TX, and the TX Big Bend region. The outflow boundary and
residual front are expected to move slowly northward over the
Arklatex and Mid-South regions through late evening, before being
overtaken by the cold front.

...Red River region to Mid-South...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may develop on either
side of the northward-moving, slowly modifying outflow boundary from
this afternoon into this evening. As the cold front intercepts that
boundary, scattered thunderstorms should form tonight along the cold
front. A marginal threat for all severe hazards exists, mainly
overnight.

As the pre-cold-frontal boundaries shift northward, a relatively
undisturbed warm-sector airmass will spread over most of the outlook
area before the cold front arrives late tonight. The strongest
DCVA/cooling aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates related to the
approaching trough will remain behind the cold front. However, a
tightening height gradient, related strengthening deep shear, and
large-scale lift within an intensifying LLJ/WAA plume will spread
across the warm sector this evening and overnight. These processes
will destabilize, moisten and increase shear in low levels. Surface
dewpoints generally in the 60s F (greater southwestward) will
contribute to MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg from the Arklatex into at least southwestern TN, diminishing northeastward from there. A shallow,
neutral to stable near-surface thermal profile will be present
nocturnally, but may not preclude strong gusts or a tornado.
Substantially front-parallel flow aloft will lead to a dominant
quasi-linear mode with the frontal activity, but the marginal
hail/tornado threat should exist with any antecedent, persistent,
relatively discrete cells. Embedded LEWP/bowing configurations in
the frontal band will pose the greatest local gust potential.

..Edwards/Goss.. 12/17/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 181253
SWODY1
SPC AC 181251

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 AM CST Wed Dec 18 2024

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado are possible into
early afternoon across parts of the Tennessee Valley region.

...Synopsis...
A continuing progressive pattern aloft will be dominated by two main
shortwave troughs: a trailing perturbation now over the coastal
Pacific Northwest, and a positively tilted one apparent in moisture-
channel imagery near a DBQ-STJ-P28-DHT axis. The latter will be the
main mid/upper-level convective influence this period, as it
elongates and tracks to near a PIT-LEX-ELD-GLS line by 00Z. The
southern part of the trough is progged to amplify and become less
positively tilted as it crosses the Mississippi Delta region
tonight, reaching northern GA, eastern AL and the western FL
Panhandle by 12Z.

At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front across parts of northern/western KY, western TN, southern AR, and northeast/central/
southwest TX. By 00Z, the front should extend from a low over
northern NJ southwestward, roughly along the Blue Ridge, then over
northern GA to the FL Panhandle. By the end of the period, the cold
front should be off all the Atlantic Coast except central FL,
extending southwestward to the southern Gulf.

...TN and vicinity...
Isolated, damaging to marginally severe gusts and/or a brief tornado
are possible into the afternoon, mainly over portions of TN. A
near-frontal band of thunderstorms was ongoing from the Arklatex
region across the Mid-South, to central KY. Ahead of this activity,
a northward-narrowing corridor of 60s F surface dewpoints (and
related near-surface-based effective-inflow parcels) was evident,
supporting 250-750 J/kg MLCAPE from near MEM to northwest of BNA,
where the 12Z sounding still showed a stable boundary layer. See
SPC Mesoscale Discussion 2272 for near-term info.

Weak, continuing, preconvective theta-e advection, and perhaps a few
deg F of cloud-restrained diurnal warming, will offset modest
midlevel lapse rates enough to maintain and perhaps slightly
increase surface-based buoyancy eastward across TN through early/mid
afternoon. Although flow ahead of the QLCS that has not already
done so should veer to south-southwest or southwest, enough
hodograph enlargement will remain to support around 100-150 J/kg
0-500m SRH and 200-300 J/kg effective SRH, amid 35-45-kt
effective-shear magnitudes. As such, the main concern will arise
from episodic, embedded BOW/LEWP formations and accompanying
mesocirculations. The convective band should outpace the already
marginally unstable boundary layer by midafternoon.

..Edwards/Goss.. 12/18/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 211252
SWODY1
SPC AC 211250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0650 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible this morning into early
afternoon across parts of coastal Oregon and northern California.

...Coastal OR/northern CA...
A potent mid to upper-level shortwave trough will move ashore the
northern CA/OR coast and continue northeastward into the southern
Canadian Rockies/northern Rockies vicinity through late tonight.
Weak thunderstorm activity embedded within a warm-air advection rain
shield will continue moving into the coastal range mountains this
morning before outrunning the inland penetration of scant
instability. The corridor of thunderstorms will probably shift
north along the coast into OR by midday into the early afternoon in
association with the mid-level cold pocket encroaching on the OR
coast. Elsewhere, quiescent weather or stable conditions will
preclude thunderstorm development over the remainder of the
contiguous United States.

..Smith/Goss.. 12/21/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 222000
SWODY1
SPC AC 221959

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

Valid 222000Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.

...20Z Update...
Lightning flashes continue to be observed just offshore of the
northern CA coastline as a mid-level trough approaches the Pacific
Northwest. As the mid-level trough continues to advance toward the
coastline later this afternoon and evening, increased mid-level
cooling aloft will encourage at least isolated onshore thunderstorm development. As such, no changes have been made to the previous
forecast.

..Squitieri.. 12/22/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024/

...Northern CA/Pacific Northwest coast through tonight...
Lightning flashes have been observed this morning within a
baroclinic band roughly 150 mi off the northern CA coast, in
association with a midlevel shortwave trough that will move inland
later today into tonight. The potential for isolated lightning
flashes inland will begin this afternoon with elevated convection in
the warm conveyor belt across northwest CA/southwest OR. Other
isolated lightning flashes may also occur this evening into early
tonight along the WA coast as steeper low-midlevel lapse rates and
weak buoyancy spread inland.

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 231244
SWODY1
SPC AC 231242

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level trough over AZ
moving east and a northern stream trough over the Pacific Northwest.
The northern mid-level trough will latitudinally expand southward
into the central Rockies/south-central High Plains as a ridge
amplifies over the Interior West in its wake. As this occurs, a
partial phasing of mid-level trough over the Desert Southwest will
occur as it moves into the southern High Plains. Farther west, a
powerful upper trough will reach the WA/OR/northern CA coasts late
tonight. In the low levels, surface high pressure will influence
conditions over much of the Lower 48 states. Weak/ill-defined lower
pressure over central TX will facilitate southerly flow from the TX
coastal plain northward into the Red River Valley.

Weak 850-mb warm-air advection will likely persist through the
period across north TX into OK while a modest increase in moisture
eventually results in weak elevated instability. Isolated to widely
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible tonight over
eastern OK and perhaps as far south as north TX.

..Smith/Goss.. 12/23/2024

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ACUS01 KWNS 271244
SWODY1
SPC AC 271243

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024

Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms could occur today
across parts of the central Gulf Coast States.

...Synopsis...
In mid/upper levels, a broad area of cyclonic flow will persist
around mean troughing, from the Great Basin and Rockies across the
Great Plains to the Mississippi Valley. The leading shortwave
trough -- in a series of them to influence convective potential
through early next week -- is apparent in moisture-channel imagery
over the MO Bootheel southward over portions of the Mid-South
region. This feature will weaken considerably as it ejects
northeastward to OH by 00Z, in response to an upstream trough
initially over the southern/central Plains to Black Hills and
western Dakotas. That higher-amplitude perturbation will reach the
eastern Dakotas, lower Missouri Valley and Ozarks by 00Z, then eject northeastward to the Upper Great Lakes by the end of the period. A
third shortwave trough -- currently moving inland from the Pacific
Northwest Coast -- should dig southeastward rapidly across the Great
Basin, reaching the southern High Plains and Permian Basin regions
by 12Z tomorrow.

At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over the western Ozarks
between SGF-HRO, with occluded front arching across the Mid-South to west-central MS, warm front over south-central MS to near MOB then southeastward across the FL Keys. A slow-moving cold to
quasistationary front was drawn from west-central MS across the
southwestern LA coastline and TX shelf waters to a weak low over
Padre Island. The low should move north-northeastward to northern
WI by 12Z tomorrow, with frontolysis occurring to its south near the Mississippi Valley. Cyclogenesis will occur overnight over
northwest TX in advance of the third mid/upper-level shortwave trough.

...Portions of central Gulf Coast region...
Multiple rounds of convection are expected through this evening,
with the best-organized cells offering locally strong-severe gusts
and a marginal tornado risk. This includes a couple bands of
ongoing convection -- along a dominant western convergence zone just
ahead of the cold front, from eastern to southwestern MS and coastal south-central LA, and another near I-59 in southern MS. The 12Z LIX
sounding sampled the coastal airmass between these well, with MLCAPE
around 1400 J kg, effective SRH around 270 J/kg, modest winds
between 250-500 mb, and effective-shear magnitude near 30 kt. With
the leading trough ejecting away from the area and weakening fast,
and the next remaining stronger but passing abeam of the outlook
area to the north, net height changes through most of the period
should be near neutral, with some rises possible in the near term
(indicating the ongoing activity is unlikely to get substantially
better organized than at present).

However, a progressive lobe of midlevel vorticity -- extending
southeastward from the second trough -- will foster large-scale
DCVA/lift late this afternoon into evening over portions of MS and northern/western AL before the lobe ejects away and dissipates.
This will be well-timed with peak afternoon warming, to steepen low-middle-level lapse rates and weaken MLCINH, contributing to
potential regeneration/strengthening of the western convective/
convergence band. That process, with 60s F warm-sector surface
dewpoints between the cold and warm fronts, should contribute to
1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep shear and low-level hodographs should
favor at least isolated supercells, with 35-45-kt effective-shear
magnitudes and 200-300 J/kg effective SRH (maximized near the warm
front). However, by mid/late afternoon, deep ascent and shear will
have peaked over most of the area. With increasing displacement
between the stronger flow/forcing aloft related to the second
trough, and the favorable boundary-layer airmass, already marginal
severe potential should diminish overnight.

..Edwards/Grams.. 12/27/2024

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ACUS01 KWNS 281252
SWODY1
SPC AC 281251

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
EAST TEXAS...CENTRAL/NORTHERN LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND
WESTERN ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF2 damage possible), severe
gusts and hail are expected today into tonight. The threat area will
shift eastward from parts of north and central Texas early, across
east Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley today, then over the
Tennessee Valley, parts of Georgia, and the central Gulf Coast tonight.

...Synopsis...
In mid/upper levels, broadly cyclonic flow will persist and shift
eastward across the central CONUS through the period. The most
important feature aloft will be an embedded shortwave trough, now
apparent in moisture-channel imagery over the southern High Plains,
lowest Pecos Valley and northern Coahuila. This perturbation will
move eastward across much of the remainder of TX today, reaching a
position from eastern OK to east TX to the northwestern Gulf by 00Z.
Overnight, this trough should pivot northeastward, reaching
southern IL, western parts of KY/TN, and MS by 12Z tomorrow.

The 11Z surface analysis showed a wavy, mostly warm to locally
quasistationary frontal zone across the southeastern Hill Country of
TX, eastward over central/east TX and central LA to western/central
MS, then southeastward diffusely into outflow air over coastal areas
near MOB/PNS, related to offshore activity. A low was drawn over
northwest TX between SPS-ABI. The low is expected to migrate east-southeastward across north TX this morning, meet the returning
warm sector, then pivot east-northeastward to the northern LA/
southern AR area by 00Z, when the attached cold front should extend southwestward over portions of east and south TX. By 12Z, the low
should deepen considerably and reach western KY, with cold front
across middle TN, northern AL, southeastern MS, southeastern LA, and
the northwestern Gulf. Well-organized convective band(s) should
precede the cold front from this afternoon through tonight. Prior
to the low's arrival, the warm/marine front should advance northward
into the Arklatex, and across parts of southern AR and northern MS.
The warm front should move northeastward across AL and the FL
Panhandle tonight, bounding the northeastern rim of a narrowing warm
sector.

...Southern Plains to Southern Appalachians and central Gulf
Coast...

Convection is increasing in two main regimes either side of the
warm/marine front:

1. Elevated convection to its north over north-central TX,
predominantly of a hail concern, and forecast to move/expand into
the Arklatex over the next few hours. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch
717 and related mesoscale discussions for near-term details.
2. Warm-sector thunderstorms building gradually from east TX across
parts of LA to southern MS. This activity will pose a threat for
tornadoes, isolated hail, and occasional severe gusts. See SPC
Mesoscale discussions 2294 and 2295, with watches likely over these
areas today as well.

Peak tornado and severe-gust potential should be from this afternoon
into tonight, in and near the "Moderate" and "Enhanced" areas.
Perhaps the greatest uncertainty at this time is coverage of
supercells in the warm sector during peak instability this afternoon
and into evening, following the morning episode, given 1) the need
for recovery behind earlier activity and 2) subtle and gradual
boundary-layer forcing/convergence would be the main factor
contributing to their development. A broad area of favorable
moisture, represented by mid-60s to near 70 F surface dewpoints,
will contribute to peak MLCAPE in the 2000-2500 J/kg range from east
TX to southwestern MS, and around 1000-1500 J/kg from central MS
into central/southern AL where diurnal heating will be less a factor
than theta-e advection for preconvective destabilization.
Hodographs will favor supercells and tornado potential during the
day -- especially near the marine/warm front -- but largest after
00Z east of the Mississippi River where a 45-60-kt LLJ will overlap
at least marginally surface-based inflow parcels. SRH of 150-250
J/kg in the lowest 1/2 km, and 200-400 J/kg in the effective-inflow
layer, should be attainable.

Any sustained, discrete supercell in this environment will pose a
threat for cyclic, strong tornado production. As the primary
convective band organizes and moves into increasing moisture and
LLJ-enlarged hodographs in low levels this evening, embedded
LEWP/bowing features may produce both severe gusts and tornadoes.
The cumulative tornado threat suggests maintaining "moderate" level probabilities with this outlook cycle, but enough uncertainty
remains to preclude a greater unconditional risk area. As the event
proceeds through the overnight hours, one or two dominant QLCSs
should continue across AL and into portions of GA and the FL
Panhandle, with a threat persisting for embedded severe gusts and at
least a few tornadoes.

..Edwards/Grams.. 12/28/2024

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ACUS01 KWNS 281949
SWODY1
SPC AC 281947

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

Valid 282000Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF2 damage possible), severe
gusts and hail are expected today into tonight. The threat area will
continue to shift eastward across east Texas and the lower
Mississippi Valley today, then over the Tennessee Valley, parts of
Georgia, and the central Gulf Coast tonight.

...20Z Update...
Severe probabilities have been adjusted in portions of central into
East Texas as well as portions of Arkansas/western Tennessee. These
areas have been impacted by earlier convection and further
destabilization does not appear likely. The remainder of the
outlook, the Moderate risk area in particular, is unchanged. The
corridor of greatest concern appears to be from portions of central
Louisiana into southwest Mississippi. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints
are in place and the potential for discrete/semi-discrete storms
should be maximized here later this afternoon/evening as the
mid-level jet moves overhead and the low-level jet strengthens.

..Wendt.. 12/28/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024/

...East TX to AL/GA...
A powerful mid-level shortwave trough and associated 80-90 knot jet
max will rotate quickly eastward across TX today and become
negatively-tilted as it tracks into the lower MS Valley this
evening. Ample low-level moisture (dewpoints in the mid 60s to
lower 70s) is in place ahead of this system across east TX, much of
LA, and central/southern MS. Morning convection is slowly weakening
across the warm sector, and low-clouds will continue to erode. This
will help to develop a corridor of moderate instability with MLCAPE
values of 1500-2000 J/kg. This will set the stage for a significant
severe weather event through the evening as supercells and bowing
structures form over east TX and race eastward across LA into MS.

The co-location of the mid-level jet, strengthening winds in the
low-levels, surface cyclogenesis, and ample moisture provide a synoptically-evident setup for all severe hazards through the
evening. The corridor of greatest concern will be late afternoon
through the evening from central LA into central MS. Considered an
upgrade to HIGH for this area, but will maintain the ongoing MDT
after consultation with local WFOs. Strong and long-tracked
tornadoes and widespread damaging winds are possible in this region,
with the primary uncertainty regarding storm-mode and linear forcing mechanisms.

Activity will spread across AL overnight, where slightly less
low-level moisture will somewhat decrease the overall severe threat.
Nevertheless, an active squall line with damaging wind potential
and embedded rotating storms/tornado threat will likely persist.

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ACUS01 KWNS 291301
SWODY1
SPC AC 291300

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN
GULF COAST NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes and sporadic damaging to severe gusts are possible
today from the eastern Gulf Coast northward into the Carolinas and
southern Virginia. More-isolated severe storms may occur across
parts of the central Appalachians and Ohio Valley, and over
southernmost Florida.

...Synopsis...
In mid/upper levels, a progressive pattern will persist across the
CONUS. A strong shortwave trough will move ashore in the Pacific
Northwest and northern CA today. This will be preceded by some
thunder potential, as lapse rates steepen from large-scale ascent,
over areas where at least marginal low/middle-level moisture exists
to support convection. Downstream, a strong shortwave trough was
evident in moisture-channel imagery between the Mid-South and
Tennessee Valley. This perturbation will pivot northeastward over
TN, KY and IN today, forming a closed 500-mb low by 00Z over the
Michiana region, and phasing with an initially upstream perturbation
now over the central Plains. By 12Z, the resultant trough should
assume considerable negative tilt, extending from a low over eastern
Lake Huron to the Hampton Roads of VA/northeastern NC region.

The associated surface cyclone was centered at 11Z over southwestern
IN, with cold front across middle TN, central AL, past the
Mississippi River mouth, then across the northwestern Gulf. The low
is forecast to deepen and occlude today as it moves to near TOL.
The cold front should sweep across much of the eastern CONUS through
the period. By 00Z, the front should reach central parts of PA/VA/
NC/SC, southeastern GA, and the eastern Gulf, preceded by a
strong-severe line of thunderstorms. By 12Z, the front should reach
eastern NY, then offshore until central FL.

...Southern Atlantic Coast States...
An ongoing, prefrontal squall line, with sporadic/embedded LEWP/
bowing features and an occasional embedded mesovortex, extends from northwestern SC across central/southern GA and the FL Panhandle, to
the adjoining Gulf. This convection should become more northeast/
southwest oriented as its northern portion races through the central Appalachians/Piedmont region today, amid meager but still locally
sufficient buoyancy (MLCAPE mostly less than 400 J/kg), long and
curved low-level hodographs with 200-400 J/kg effective SRH, and
favorable deep shear. Damaging gusts and a few embedded QLCS
tornadoes will be the main concerns. See SPC Tornado Watches 723-724
and associated mesoscale discussions for the latest near-term coverage.

...Central Appalachians/Ohio Valley...
Widely scattered low-topped thunderstorms are possible from midday
through afternoon in a pocket of marginally unstable air ahead of
the surface low and ejecting mid/upper trough. A marginal threat
exists for damaging gusts or a brief tornado from this activity. As
the trough approaches, midlevel flow will strengthen considerably,
associated large-scale ascent will steepen low/middle-level lapse
rates, while the mass response increases low-level and deep-layer
shear. Temperatures from the upper 50s F to mid 60s (southeastern
parts) would support MLCAPE in the 100-400 J/kg range amidst 40-50
kt effective-shear magnitudes and SRH of 100-200 J/kg in the lowest
1/2 km. Damaging gusts may be brought to the surface via momentum
transfer in downdrafts from the LLJ, and conditional potential
exists for mini-supercells to develop. Given the weak overall lapse
rates and lack of greater buoyancy, the already marginal threat
should diminish quickly by around 00Z.

...South FL/Keys...
A small but persistent MCS, with an embedded MCV on its northwest
side, has been moving slowly eastward across the easternmost Gulf
toward Florida Bay for most of the prior overnight hours. This
complex should affect at least parts of the mid/upper Keys, and
southern Everglades, through midday. The ambient/synoptic gradients
suggest only modest deep-layer shear this far from the ejecting
shortwave trough. However, mesoscale midlevel flow enhancement and
low-level mass response will promote some hodograph enlargement in a
small corridor southeast through east of the MCV. Accordingly,
sporadic and mostly short-lived mesocirculations have been observed
in the complex for several hours, amid rich inflow-layer moisture
and low LCL. An associated low-end tornado threat may extend into
the outlook area before the complex weakens substantially. See SPC
Mesoscale Discussion 2317 for near-term details.

..Edwards/Grams.. 12/29/2024

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ACUS01 KWNS 301216
SWODY1
SPC AC 301214

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0614 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024

Valid 301300Z - 311200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
Broadly cyclonic flow will be maintained over most of the CONUS in
mid/upper levels, except for progressive shortwave ridging in
between these two perturbations:

1. A strong, negatively tilted shortwave trough apparent in
moisture-channel imagery from a 500-mb low over Lake Huron,
southeastward WV to coastal SC. This feature is expected to lose
amplitude while pivoting northeastward up the East Coast and
central/northern Appalachians, and across the Lower Great Lakes,
through the end of the period. The associated surface cold front is
offshore from the mid-Atlantic, and extends southwestward across
central FL to the central Gulf, where frontal deceleration and
weakening are expected through most of the period.

2. An initially weaker shortwave trough, evident from the Black
Hills southward over eastern CO. This feature should strengthen
today and tonight as several proximal vorticity lobes phase with
each other, and ageostrophic/baroclinic forcings intensify. The
trough should move east-southeastward across the central Plains and
lower Missouri Valley, reaching the lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South
region by 12Z tomorrow. In the wake of prior cold-frontal passage, low/middle-level moisture will be weak, yet still sufficient to
support isolated, nocturnal, non-severe thunderstorms amidst a
corridor of strong large-scale ascent/destabilization aloft, from
the mid-Mississippi Valley to lower Ohio Valley region.

..Edwards/Grams.. 12/30/2024

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ACUS01 KWNS 311258
SWODY1
SPC AC 311257

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024

Valid 311300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Damaging to isolated marginally severe gusts, isolated large hail,
and possibly a brief tornado, are possible today from the central
Appalachians to parts of the Mid-Atlantic.

...Synopsis...
In mid/upper levels, a progressive shortwave pattern will persist
within a broadly cyclonic flow field covering much of the CONUS from
the Rockies eastward. The most important of these features for
convective potential will be a well-developed shortwave trough --
evident in moisture-channel imagery from a low over IL south-
southeastward to western portions of KY and the lower Tennessee
Valley region. Though the 500-mb low may not remain closed, the
trough will remain strong and shift east-northeastward up the Ohio
Valley today, reaching OH, WV and the western Appalachians of VA/NC
by 00Z. The trough should pivot over the northern Mid-Atlantic and
offshore from the Delmarva Peninsula by 12Z.

At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low between CMI-MTO, related
to the shortwave trough aloft, a cold front arching southwestward
across western parts of TN/KY, and a warm front east-southeastward
across northeastern KY that will shift northeastward over portions
of WV and southern OH through the early afternoon, as the low
occludes and moves northeastward. By 00Z, the low should reach the
CLE area, with cold front moving eastward across western parts of VA
and NC, and warm front moving north up the Atlantic Coast and across
the Delmarva Peninsula. An older frontal zone, now well offshore,
should continue to weaken, with considerable theta-e advection
occurring to its west near the coast.

...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic...
Episodic lines and clusters of thunderstorms are expected to move
eastward across the outlook area today, from the northern
Cumberland/southern Allegheny Plateau region eastward toward coastal
Delmarva and vicinity, with occasional strong/isolated severe gusts
and hail the main severe modes, but with marginal tornado threat as well.

Large-scale ascent will spread over this region in the form of
strong midlevel DCVA/cooling immediately preceding the trough, as
well as the peripheral/ageostrophic influences of the left exit
region of a strong 250-300-mb jet, centered from the Ozarks to the
western Carolinas. Associated destabilization aloft will offset
modest (but diurnally steepening) low-level lapse rates and marginal
moisture behind the offshore front. This yields an area of 100-300
J/kg MLCAPE already apparent in objective analyses between RAOBs,
over southern IN, despite cool surface conditions. This weakly
buoyant regime is forecast to expand and strengthen somewhat
(300-600 J/kg) as it moves eastward over eastern KY late this
morning into midday. Long, somewhat curved low-level hodographs and
strong low-level shear are expected, supporting potential for embedded/low-topped supercells, as well as LEWP/bow features with
any linear modes.

The area of large-scale lift and accompanying strong-severe
convective potential then will shift across WV to VA/MD/DC and the
Delmarva region, encountering theta-e advection from a modified
post-frontal airmass over the Atlantic. This regime then should
move offshore, where even more-extensive convective development is
likely overnight. The wind and tornado areas have been shifted
south out of most of PA, where the low-level stable/inversion layer
should hold, and expanded westward into portions of eastern KY,
where surface-based buoyancy will exist as the cold-core region
moves overhead. Severe potential probably will be discontinuous
across this corridor, and a lack of more-robust buoyancy precludes
more than a marginal unconditional severe threat for this outlook
cycle.
------------------

...Epilogue (RE)...
This is my final SPC outlook, forecast and shift. With a
cyclonically swirling storm of memories, I retire mourning the end
of a rewarding era, yet ever grateful, blessed with a career of
public service devoted to excellence. For a poor kid from
inner-city east Dallas, carrying a passion for tornadoes from
earliest awareness, and a relentless drive to research and forecast
them, it has been everything the dream promised, and more. I hope
the American taxpayers have found my time worth their money.

Even through this autumnal transition of life's seasons, I'll stay
as inspired as ever by the tempestuous sky above -- to observe,
photograph and study it, and keep giving back to the science in some
way, as long as physically and mentally able. It just won't be on
rotating shifts. The forecasting baton passes to another generation
of sharp minds, just as the lead crew in the 1990s did for us "young
pups of SELS" in Kansas City. The SPC is in great hands.

There isn't enough room here to thank everyone from early childhood
through OU, NSSL, NHC, NSSFC/SELS, and SPC -- family, friends,
instructors, mentors, students, and colleagues -- but be assured I
do. Nothing has granted greater career fulfillment than to deliver severe-weather forecasts with detailed, science-based insights,
customized for each situation, shift after shift for over three
decades, and to write related research papers. Thanks for reading
and using them, any or all. Stay weather-aware!

..Edwards/Grams.. 12/31/2024

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ACUS01 KWNS 011231
SWODY1
SPC AC 011230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Within broadly cyclonic flow over the central/eastern CONUS, a
mid-level shortwave trough will rotate northeastward over New
England and the Canadian Maritimes today. A related coastal surface
low near southern New England is expected to develop northward into
ME by this evening. Even though instability will remain very weak,
isolated lightning flashes will remain possible for at least a few
more hours across parts of coastal New England in the low-level warm
advection regime of the cyclone. Dry and/or stable conditions and
minimal thunderstorm potential are forecast today for the rest of
the CONUS.

..Gleason/Grams.. 01/01/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 031257
SWODY1
SPC AC 031255

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Sporadic lightning flashes may occur this afternoon and evening over
parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California.
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A strong upper trough will move inland today across the Northwest.
Cold mid-level temperatures (around -24 to -28 C at 500 mb)
associated with the trough, along with modestly steepened lapse
rates aloft, should support the development of weak instability even
though daytime heating will be muted by persistent cloud cover.
Behind a cold front, isolated lightning flashes may occur with
generally low-topped cells mainly this afternoon and evening along
parts of the OR Coast into northern CA. Small hail and gusty winds
may occur with the more robust cores, although limited forecast
instability and deep-layer shear are expected to preclude a
meaningful threat for severe thunderstorms.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/03/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 041253
SWODY1
SPC AC 041252

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur early Sunday morning across parts
of the southern/central Plains eastward to the Mid-South. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A strong upper trough over the western CONUS this morning will
translate eastward over the Rockies today, eventually reaching the southern/central High Plains by early Sunday morning. Low-level mass
response ahead of this trough will encourage lee cyclogenesis over
the southern High Plains tonight, with the surface low developing
into central OK by the end of the period. An attendant cold front
will likewise sweep southeastward over the southern Plains tonight.
With only a slow erosion of surface high pressure over the Southeast
today, the northward advance of partially modified Gulf moisture
across parts of central/east TX and the lower MS Valley should
fairly be limited.

The development of appreciable boundary-layer instability to support surface-based convection still appears likely to be delayed into the
Day 2 period (Sunday). Even so, the presence of weak MUCAPE
(generally 500 J/kg or less) may support isolated lightning with
elevated convection that can develop late tonight into early Sunday
morning in the low-level warm advection regime. This appears most
probable across parts of KS/OK towards the Ozarks and Mid-South.
Forecast instability appears too weak to support a meaningful threat
for severe hail with this activity. Isolated convection may also
approach portions of coastal LA the last few hours of the period
early Sunday morning.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/04/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 061249
SWODY1
SPC AC 061248

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to potentially severe,
will be possible across parts of the Southeast today.

...Southeast...
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning just ahead of a
cold front across parts of the FL Panhandle and adjacent Gulf of
Mexico. As a strong upper trough continues to move over the eastern
CONUS today, the related surface cold front will sweep
east-southeastward over the remainder of the Southeast through the
period. With low-level warm/moist advection occurring ahead of this
front, a narrow corridor of partially modified Gulf moisture should
be in place ahead of the ongoing convective activity. While lapse
rates will remain generally poor, modest daytime heating should
allow for weak destabilization through the afternoon along/ahead of
the front.

Better forcing with the upper trough will remain mostly displaced to
the north of the surface warm sector, and low-level convergence
along the front is forecast to weaken through the day. This should
limit thunderstorm coverage and intensity to some extent. Even so,
there may still be occasional strong to damaging wind gusts with the
broken line of convection as it continues eastward over parts of
southern GA and north FL through the afternoon. With sufficient
low-level shear in place, a brief tornado or two may also occur. The
overall severe threat is expected to remain rather isolated/marginal
given the limited instability forecast over land.

...Outer Banks...
Thunderstorms are forecast to develop late this afternoon along or
just ahead of the cold front. Most guidance continues to suggest
that the more robust convection will form offshore over the Gulf
Stream. But, there is a low chance that a strong thunderstorm or two
may briefly impact the Outer Banks of NC before moving quickly
eastward over the Atlantic. Severe potential appears too limited
spatially for low severe probabilities.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/06/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 081234
SWODY1
SPC AC 081233

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0633 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but very isolated
thunderstorms are possible late tonight across parts of west Texas.

...West Texas...
A low-latitude mid/upper-level low will settle south-southeastward
over far northwest Mexico through tonight. Weak height falls will
begin to influence far west Texas late tonight, with modestly
increasing ascent atop a sub-freezing boundary layer. With cold
temperatures aloft and steepening mid-level lapse rates, weak
elevated instability based around 700 mb may be sufficient for
isolated lightning flashes late tonight, primarily after midnight.

..Guyer/Bentley.. 01/08/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 091259
SWODY1
SPC AC 091258

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Discussion...
A low-latitude positive-tilt upper trough over the Four Corners and
northwest Mexico will slowly transition eastward toward the southern
High Plains through tonight. A related strengthening of deep-layer southwesterly winds will occur across the southern Plains, atop a
cool and stable air mass at the surface. Warm advection and elevated
moisture transport will be maximized across broad parts of
central/southern to east Texas today, and into the Lower Mississippi
Valley tonight. Weak elevated buoyancy will support occasional
thunderstorms. It is unlikely that instability will be strong enough
for any hail risk given poor lapse rates aloft.

..Guyer/Bentley.. 01/09/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 100532
SWODY1
SPC AC 100531

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Saturday morning. A
few thunderstorms and windy/rainy conditions are likely along the
northern Gulf Coast.

...Synopsis...
A complex and progressive upper-air pattern will exist today, with
the main feature of interest being a large, positive-tilt upper
trough across the central US. Northern parts of this trough will
move eastward across the Great Lakes, while the southern end stalls
over northern MX. Ahead of this trough, strong southwest flow aloft
will spread across the Southeast. The stronger height falls will
spread into the Northeast into Saturday morning. Meanwhile, an upper
ridge will briefly exist across the Rockies during day, before a
strong shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest dives
southeastward across much of the Rockies and Great Basin.

At the surface, high pressure will exist over the Appalachians, with
relatively cool air at the surface all the way south to the Gulf
Coast. A surface low is forecast to be near the southern LA Coast
early today, moving toward the FL Panhandle by 00Z, and then
reforming near the coastal Carolinas early on Saturday.

...Northern Gulf Coastal Region...
Strong southerly winds just off the surface will result in
warm/moist advection and widespread precipitation from LA/MS
eastward to the southern Appalachians through 00Z, and across the
Carolinas overnight. Given the cool surface air mass in place, and
presence of widespread clouds and precipitation, minimal
destabilization will likely preclude a severe storm risk. Models
indicate little if any SBCAPE over land, with < 100 J/kg elevated
MUCAPE. The poor lapse rate environment will therefore limit
destabilization, though scattered embedded thunderstorms will be
possible along the cold front where it intersects the Gulf Coast,
and northward in the warm advection regime.

Given the strong lift along the cold front, and very strong shear,
gusty winds, possibly augmented by heavier precipitation, may occur.
However, the conditional risk of severe weather is not great enough
to introduce any risk areas.

..Jewell/Squitieri.. 01/10/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 121256
SWODY1
SPC AC 121255

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but isolated thunderstorms
may occur near the Gulf Coast tonight.

...Middle Gulf Coast...
Longwave troughing and prevalent cyclonic upper flow will persist
over the CONUS with cold/stable conditions remaining prevalent from
the Rockies eastward. Weak cyclogenesis is expected to occur over
the western to northern Gulf of Mexico tonight, with increasing
warm/moist advection toward the middle Gulf Coast. Richer low-level
theta-e will approach areas such as coastal southeast Louisiana late
tonight, although the potential for inland surface-rooted
destabilization should remain limited, with thunderstorms tending to
focus offshore.

..Guyer.. 01/12/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 131252
SWODY1
SPC AC 131251

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A few
thunderstorms may occur near the northern/western Florida Gulf Coast today.

...Discussion...
Prevalent warm advection/elevated moisture transport ahead of a weak
low over the northeast Gulf of Mexico will influence
eastward-developing convection today. Most of this convection will
remain focused over the open waters of the northeast Gulf of Mexico,
but a few thunderstorms could approach the Big Bend and other parts
of the northern/western Florida Gulf Coast. Destabilization inland
is expected to remain minimal, and thus severe storms are not
expected.

..Guyer/Dean.. 01/13/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 141250
SWODY1
SPC AC 141248

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Discussion...
Thunderstorm potential will be essentially nil today and tonight as
high pressure and stable continental trajectories persist from the
Rockies eastward. A weak low-latitude disturbance over Mexico will
progress northeastward toward Deep South Texas late today.
Warm/moist advection will also increase with airmass modification
over the western Gulf of Mexico and a gradual moistening off the
coast of Deep South Texas. Weak elevated convection may develop late
tonight with the possibility of a few lightning flashes, but this limited-potential thunderstorm scenario should remain focused
decisively offshore.

..Guyer/Dean.. 01/14/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 151248
SWODY1
SPC AC 151246

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0646 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

Valid 151300Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Coastal Texas...
Scattered elevated convection is expected to continue across the
coastal plain as warm/moist advection persists while a weak
mid-level disturbance moves eastward over the western Gulf of
Mexico. Deeper lightning-producing convection will focus over the
open Gulf waters, but a few lightning flashes could occur near the
coast. This potential is substantiated by the 12z observed sounding
from Corpus Christi, which features 400 J/kg MUCAPE (based around
840mb) and a thermodynamic profile conducive for charge separation.

..Guyer/Dean.. 01/15/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 161257
SWODY1
SPC AC 161256

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...Discussion...
An eastward-progressive upper trough will influence the Eastern
Seaboard and western Atlantic, with high pressure and continental
trajectories pervasive east of the Rockies. An upper low off the
coast of southern California and northern Baja will begin to shift
toward the Southwest Deserts late today and tonight. Isolated weak
convection may occur tonight across parts of central/southeast
Arizona, but cool/dry thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be
overly conducive for lightning.

..Guyer/Dean.. 01/16/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 171225
SWODY1
SPC AC 171223

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0623 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from eastern Oklahoma into the
Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast region
Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning.

...Eastern OK into AR...
Overnight water vapor imagery shows the subtropical jet extending
across northern Mexico into TX. A 90-100 knot mid-level jet max
will track across this region today, with enhanced forcing for
large-scale ascent overspreading parts of eastern OK and much of AR
by late afternoon. Forecast soundings in this region show stable
surface conditions. However, weak elevated CAPE (generally below
250 J/kg) and strong low-level warm advection might support a few
thunderstorms by early evening. Given the weak instability and
elevated nature of any convection that can form, severe storms are
not expected.

...MS/AL and central Gulf Coast...
As the jet max tracks eastward during the evening/night, increasing
low-level moisture will lead to broad destabilization (MUCAPE AOB
500 J/kg) across parts of MS/AL and the central Gulf Coast.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to form - mainly
after midnight. Forecast soundings suggest that dewpoints in the
50s will not be sufficient for surface-based convection, limiting
any severe threat.

..Hart/Wendt.. 01/17/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 181232
SWODY1
SPC AC 181231

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0631 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA....

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the eastern Gulf Coast
vicinity today through tonight, and pose some risk for locally
damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two.

...FL/Southern GA...
Strong westerly subtropical mid/upper level flow is in place today
across the northern Gulf of Mexico and southern tier of states.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have been occurring
overnight in the broad low-level warm advection regime beneath this
fast flow aloft. Southwesterly low-level winds have gradually
transported moisture into the central Gulf states, with low-mid 60s
dewpoints from southeast LA into the western FL Panhandle. This
zone along the coast will have weak but sufficient CAPE for a few
robust thunderstorms by early afternoon. Deep layer shear profiles
are quite strong, supportive of rotating updrafts. Forecast
soundings show deep moist-adiabatic lapse rates and relatively
veered low-level flow. These factors will tend to limit updraft
strength and overall severe threat. Nevertheless, an isolated
strong storm or two is possible later today (mainly this afternoon
and evening) with a risk of gusty/damaging winds or a tornado.

..Hart/Wendt.. 01/18/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 191212
SWODY1
SPC AC 191211

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0611 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING
OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA....

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central Florida this
morning into this afternoon, and pose at least some risk for a
tornado and locally damaging wind gusts.

...FL...
Fast southwesterly flow aloft is present today across FL, beneath
the subtropical jet. A surface cold front will slowly sag southward
across the central peninsula, with an associated line of
thunderstorms affecting the region. The surface air mass has slowly destabilized overnight with dewpoints near 70F along and south of
the front and MUCAPE values approaching 1000 J/kg. Model guidance
suggests rather strong low-level winds and favorable vertical shear
this morning, providing support for a few rotating/bowing structures
- capable of locally damaging winds or even a brief tornado. This
threat will likely diminish by late morning as wind fields slowly
weaken and veer.

..Hart/Wendt.. 01/19/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 211251
SWODY1
SPC AC 211249

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today
through tonight.

A large surface high dominates the weather across the CONUS today,
with cold, dry, and stable conditions preventing thunderstorms. A strengthening surface low off the Gulf coast may provide isolated
thunderstorms offshore later today and tonight, but lightning
activity is expected to remain well south of the coast.

..Hart/Wendt.. 01/21/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 251244
SWODY1
SPC AC 251243

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States today or tonight.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a positive-tilt upper trough
extending from the northern Rockies through central CA while zonal
flow encompasses much of the central and southern U.S. A mid-level
low will evolve over central CA during the period with an
accompanying cold pocket yielding 500-mb temperatures around -26 to
-28 deg C. Steep lapse rates in the mid levels may yield a few
lightning flashes with isolated weak convection mainly this evening.
Farther east over east TX into northern LA, the initial stage of
moisture return from the Gulf into the coastal plain will act to
weakly destabilize the airmass. Weak low-level warm/moist advection
will be the primary mechanism for showers and isolated to widely
scattered convective development tonight. The lack of a minor
disturbance embedded within strong westerly mid to high-level flow
suggests limited potential for robust elevated updrafts, thereby
negating a severe hail risk.

..Smith/Kerr.. 01/25/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 261247
SWODY1
SPC AC 261245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid/upper-level low over
CA. A split-flow pattern is located downstream over the central
U.S. with southwesterly flow over the Desert Southwest, and
northwesterly flow over the Upper Midwest in association with
large-scale troughing centered over Hudson Bay. Cold mid-level
temperatures associated with the CA upper low will yield
intermittent pockets of weak buoyancy from the central valley into
southern coastal CA. As a result, weak convection may yield a few
sporadic lightning flashes mainly today into this evening. Farther
east, persistent low-level warm/moist advection, via the warm
conveyor atop a slowly modifying CP airmass along the northwest Gulf
Coast, will favor showers and eventually scattered thunderstorm
development over east TX into the lower MS Valley. Despite strong
mid to high-level westerly flow, limited storm organization is
forecast due primarily to weak instability. A vigorous updraft or
two cannot be ruled out over east TX on the eastern periphery of
steeper 700-500 mb lapse rates (reference 12 UTC Fort Worth, TX
raob; 8.7 deg C/km). Yet, gradual moistening of the mid troposphere
via convection will act to hinder a localized Marginal hail risk.

..Smith/Kerr.. 01/26/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 271231
SWODY1
SPC AC 271230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025

Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level low will meander slowly east across southern CA into
northwest AZ during the period. A belt of strong upper flow will
extend from Baja California east across the southern U.S. while a
split flow regime is maintained with troughing over the Great Lakes.
In the low levels, a frontal zone will slide southward into the
northern Gulf from the central Gulf Coast. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms are possible mainly this morning over the central Gulf
Coast, before the focus for isolated thunderstorms focuses farther
west over the Mojave Desert into western AZ today. Elsewhere,
quiescent conditions will prevail across much of the remainder of the CONUS.

..Smith/Kerr.. 01/27/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 281630
SWODY1
SPC AC 281628

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1028 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025

Valid 281630Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.

...Discussion...
Split upper-level flow will persist over the CONUS with a
slow-moving southern-stream upper low over the Southwest Deserts and
northwest Mexico. In the presence of steep lapse rates, a few
lightning flashes will be possible across southern California and
northern Arizona through around sunset. No thunderstorms are
expected elsewhere as cool/stable conditions prevail.

..Guyer/Squitieri.. 01/28/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 291249
SWODY1
SPC AC 291248

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND
NORTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts
of the southern Great Plains tonight.

..Southern Great Plains...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a closed upper low over the
Desert Southwest. This upper feature will gradually move eastward
through daybreak Thursday reaching the Sangre de Cristos.
Widespread cloud cover over central/eastern TX into OK will tend to
limit diurnal heating today. Southerly low-level flow over
south/coastal TX will slowly intensify as a still modifying airmass
over the western Gulf of America moves inland into the TX Hill
Country. Isolated thunderstorms may develop later this afternoon
over northeast TX into AR but weak elevated instability will limit
storm intensity.

By mid to late evening, prior moistening during the day into the
early evening will yield weak instability (250-1000 J/kg MUCAPE)
from west-central TX north-northeastward into southern OK. The
arrival of stronger large-scale ascent associated with the
approaching upper low and Pacific cold front will facilitate the
development of showers/thunderstorms from central TX into southern
OK. Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures around -16 deg C will
support a potential risk for large hail with a few of the stronger
updrafts. Convective coverage is forecast to quickly increase
during the late evening/overnight timeframe as storms become
oriented in a large band. An accompanying risk for isolated strong
to locally severe will likely continue through the overnight. A
surface-based warm sector may eventually be encountered by storms on
the southern portion of the band near the I-35 corridor overnight.
A marginal risk for severe gusts and perhaps a tornado could develop
with this activity.

..Smith/Kerr.. 01/29/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 301243
SWODY1
SPC AC 301242

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

Valid 301300Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND FAR WESTERN MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible today into tonight
from eastern portions of Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley.

...East-central TX into the lower MS Valley...
A large mid to upper-level low centered near the CO/KS/OK/TX border
region will migrate eastward through tonight before reaching the
lower MO Valley early Friday morning. A belt of 100+ kt 500-mb flow
will move from southwest TX northeastward into eastern OK/north TX
by early evening before overspreading the Ark-La-Miss and lower OH
Valley. The strongest upper forcing for ascent will shift
northeastward from the southern Great Plains into the Ozarks and
lower OH Valley. Coincidentally, a weak surface low will move from
northeast TX towards the IL vicinity late tonight. Surface analysis
this morning indicates a warm frontal zone draped over northeastern
TX and central LA. Model guidance indicates this feature will
advance into parts of the lower MS Valley/Mid South later this afternoon/evening.

Considerable cloudiness today will limit overall destabilization in
combination with relatively marginal mid-level lapse rates
(reference 12 UTC Fort Worth/Del Rio, TX and Shreveport, LA raobs).
However, a plume of modified Gulf moisture featuring dewpoints
ranging from near 70 to the mid 60s, extends from Deep South TX
northward into eastern TX ahead of the cold front and south of the
northward advancing warm frontal zone. Uncertainty for severe today
into tonight is related to overall weak instability and storm
development immediately ahead of the front. It seems plausible
storms will gradually intensify through the morning into the
afternoon. Forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs which would
support a potential risk for organized line segments/supercells.
Damaging gusts and an isolated risk for a couple of tornadoes appear
to be the primary threats with the stronger storms as this potential
severe activity shifts east in tandem with a strong LLJ. Weaker
instability with east extent into the lower MS Valley this
evening/tonight will likely lead to a lessening severe threat with time.

..Smith/Kerr.. 01/30/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 311253
SWODY1
SPC AC 311251

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

Valid 311300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated damaging gusts will be possible this
afternoon across parts of the central Gulf Coast.

...Southern AL/FL Panhandle into southwest GA...
Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level low over the lower
MO Valley this morning. This upper feature is forecast to evolve
into an open wave and accelerate eastward to the
Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas coast by early Saturday morning. Strong
southwesterly mid-level flow will move through the base of the
larger-scale trough over the central Gulf Coast states today. In
the low levels, an effective cold front extends southward through
western AL from an occluded surface low over the mid MS Valley.
This front will push east during the day with southerly low-level
flow acting to advect a still-modifying airmass northward into the
FL Panhandle and AL/GA. Scant buoyancy sampled this morning on the
12 UTC Birmingham, AL raob (100 J/kg MUCAPE) will contribute to
isolated thunderstorm development today. However, weak lapse rates
and weak convergence associated with the front will likely limit
storm intensity. Uncertainty remains whether robust updrafts can
develop with the low-topped convective band moving east across
southern AL this morning. Intensification of this band is quite
uncertain at this time given a dearth of a severe signal in
convection-allowing model guidance and observational trends trending
lower. Will maintain a low-probability wind highlight for now given
the aforementioned uncertainty.

Elsewhere, weak instability may lead to isolated storms over central
GA into the Carolinas later today. Forecast soundings show intense
flow fields with 100-300 J/kg MUCAPE possibly developing with a
neutral surface-1km AGL layer before frontal passage. Confidence in
a strong storm over this region is low---precluding severe probabilities.

..Smith/Bentley.. 01/31/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 011301
SWODY1
SPC AC 011300

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. today or
tonight.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows low-amplitude, progressive
flow regime across the Lower 48 states. In the low levels, a
cool/stable airmass will influence much of the eastern U.S. via
surface high pressure centered over Ontario and moving into New
England late tonight. Conditions will be hostile to thunderstorm
development for almost the entire CONUS, with the exception
associated with low-topped convection and perhaps a stray lightning
flash possible near the WA coastal vicinity.

..Smith/Bentley.. 02/01/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 031232
SWODY1
SPC AC 031230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States
through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates a belt of high momentum
flow extending from west to east across the northern half of the
Lower 48. Model guidance shows this flow regime amplifying as a
mid-level ridge builds over the Great Plains and a trough continues
to develop over the eastern Pacific to the west of the West Coast.
In the low levels, a cold front will push southward across the
central Great Plains and through much of the Midwest during the
period. A moist conveyor will extend from the eastern Pacific
northeastward through northern CA and into the northern Rockies.
Showers are forecast within the aforementioned corridor but
thunderstorms are not expected.

..Smith/Bentley.. 02/03/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 041240
SWODY1
SPC AC 041239

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0639 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible
across central California and along the Oregon Coast, but no severe thunderstorms are expected.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A mid/upper cyclone is currently centered off the Pacific
Northwest/British Columbia coast, with moderate southwesterly flow
aloft extending from the base of this low across much of the West
Coast. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is currently moving through
this southwesterly flow into central CA, with continued
northeastward progression across the Great Basin expected today.
Another shortwave trough is expected to follow quickly behind the
first, moving into central CA tonight. Cooler mid-level temperatures
will accompany this second shortwave, supporting the potential for a
few lightning flashes as the frontal band moves ashore. Cooler
temperatures aloft and increased forcing for ascent ahead of a third
shortwave trough could also support isolated lightning flashes early
tomorrow morning along the OR Coast.

Farther east, upper ridging is expected to amplify as it shifts
eastward across the Plains. At the same time, a fast-moving,
low-amplitude shortwave trough will progress through southern
Ontario and the Northeast. Additional southward progress of the cold
front that currently extends from the Mid-Atlantic, TN Valley,
Mid-South, and TX will be limited, with the portion of this front
over TX potentially returning northward as a warm front Wednesday
morning. Warm mid-level temperatures and associated poor lapse rates
will limit buoyancy along this boundary, precluding any thunderstorm
potential.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/04/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 051253
SWODY1
SPC AC 051252

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TENNESSEE
AND KENTUCKY INTO FAR SOUTHERN OHIO AND FAR SOUTHWEST WEST
VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe potential will be possible this
afternoon and evening from Tennessee and Kentucky into far southern
Ohio and far southwest West Virginia.

...Synopsis...
Early morning satellite imagery reveals a shortwave trough entering
the central Plains, with another, more amplified shortwave trough
farther west across the Pacific Northwest. The lead shortwave is
forecast to progress eastward, reaching the Mid MS Valley by late
tonight and continuing through the OH Valley early tomorrow. Mass
response ahead of this wave will contribute to a broad area of
moisture return, with the airmass that is currently over east TX and
the Lower MS Valley advecting northeastward through the Mid South
and TN Valley throughout the day. A weak surface low will likely
develop over the Ozarks ahead of the approaching shortwave, before
then progressing quickly northeastward along the warm front and
ending the period near the OH/WV/KY border vicinity.

...Tennessee/Kentucky...
As mentioned in the synopsis, moderate low-level moisture is
expected to advect in the TN Valley throughout the day, with most
guidance bringing low 60s dewpoints into western and south-central
KY by early Thursday. Showers and occasional thunderstorms are
possible amid the broad warm-air advection expected throughout the
warm sector. Instability will be modest, tempered by widespread
cloud cover and poor lapse rates, which is expected to limit
thunderstorm strength and duration throughout much of the period.
However, large-scale forcing for ascent will increase as the
shortwave trough approaches the region, augmenting the ongoing
warm-air advection. This increased lift is expected to result in
increased convective coverage and intensity, with more persistent
updrafts likely. Strong vertical shear will be in place (i.e. 0-6 km
bulk shear around 50 kt), supporting the potential for organization
with any more persistent updrafts.

Primary threat will likely be hail as storms are generally expected
to stay elevated. A strong gust or two, and perhaps even a brief
tornado are possible from central KY into western/middle TN where a
few surface based storms could occur.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/05/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 061253
SWODY1
SPC AC 061252

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across
parts of the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley, mainly this
morning and later in the afternoon to early evening.

...TN Valley into the Southern Appalachians...
A line of thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from western WV into south-central KY, along a weak cold front progressing eastward
across the region. The warm sector ahead of this front is
characterized by temperatures in the low/mid 60s, dewpoints in the
low 60s, and modest buoyancy. Strong vertical shear exists across
this region as well, with mesoanalysis estimating effective bulk
shear values around 50-55 kt. Notable low-level curvature exists
over the region as well, supported by strong low-level flow (i.e.
850 mb flow over 50 kt). These environmental conditions are
supporting occasional updraft organization with the convective line,
with a resulting potential for a few brief tornadoes as well as
strong gusts and small hail. Shortwave trough responsible for the
cold front as well as the strong low-level flow will continue to
lift northeastward towards the Lower Great Lakes/northern
Appalachians this morning. Resultant weakening of the large-scale
ascent and low-level shear will likely lead to a weakening of this
convective line by the late morning.

The cold front is expected to continue gradually southward, and by
the early afternoon will likely extend from far western VA
west-southwestward across northern TN into northern AR. Another
low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to move through the
region, contributing to another round of thunderstorms in the
vicinity of this front. Thunderstorms are possible on both sides of
the cold front, with greater storm coverage likely north of the
boundary where large-scale ascent will be strongest. Vertical shear
will be strong enough to support hail within a few of these elevated storms.

Potential for surface-based storms will exist south of the boundary,
with the degree of buoyancy modulated by how much heating is
realized. Current guidance suggests temperatures could reach the low
70s, which would result in MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Fast, nearly
unidirectional zonal flow regime will yield mid/upper-level
hodograph elongation. This should foster potential for an organized
cluster to develop by late afternoon, centered on the western/middle
TN vicinity. Localized damaging winds and marginally severe hail may
accompany this convection as it moves across TN and into far western
NC by early evening.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/06/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 061610
SWODY1
SPC AC 061608

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1008 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE AND VICINITY....

...SUMMARY...
A few strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening across parts of the Tennessee Valley.

...TN and vicinity...
Morning visible satellite imagery shows a surface cold front
extending from northwest TN into southern KY. The air mass along
and south of the front continues to slowly moisten with dewpoints
now in the 60s across most of western/middle TN, and cloud cover
appears to be thinning. This will lead to a zone of 1000-1500 J/kg surface-based CAPE this afternoon. Most 12z model solutions
indicate scattered thunderstorms will form along the front and track east-southeastward across much of TN through the afternoon/evening.
Low-level wind fields are considerably weaker than last night,
suggesting the overall tornado risk has likely decreased. However,
mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km, weak forcing, strong westerly
flow aloft, and diurnal heating suggest the risk of a few discrete rotating/bowing storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. A
tornado or two is possible. The threat may persist after dark in
east TN, but should weaken as storms move into less instability over
the mountains.

..Hart/Jirak.. 02/06/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 071247
SWODY1
SPC AC 071246

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0646 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Predominantly zonal upper flow is currently in place across the
CONUS as one shortwave trough progresses through the Canadian
Maritimes and another moves through the Pacific Northwest. High
surface pressure is expected the shift eastward across the OH Valley
in the wake of the Canadian Maritime shortwave. A weakening cold
front exists between the more continental air associated with this
high and the modified maritime airmass from central TX across the
Southeast. Relatively warm low/mid-level temperatures should
preclude the development of deep convection along this front.
Western portions of this front will likely begin returning northward
this afternoon amid lowering surface pressure across the central
High Plains/central Plains.

Farther west, the shortwave trough currently over the Pacific
Northwest is forecast to progress eastward through the northern
Rockies and into the northern Plains. This progression will help
induce the aforementioned lower surface pressure across the central
High Plains/central Plains, while also encouraging a
southward/southeastward surge of colder air across the northern Plains.

The only thunderstorm potential across the CONUS today is expected
over southern ID, northern UT, and western WY as the Pacific
Northwest shortwave trough moves through the region. Strong forcing
for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could result in a few
lightning flashes from now until the early afternoon when the wave
exits the region.

..Mosier.. 02/07/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 081245
SWODY1
SPC AC 081244

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across
parts of the Ohio Valley today.

...Ohio Valley...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough currently extends from western ND southwestward through western/central WY. This shortwave is expected
to progress quickly eastward throughout the day, moving across the
Great Lakes and reaching the Northeast by early tomorrow. In
response, the surface low currently over central OK is forecast to
rapidly translate northeastward through the Mid MS and OH Valleys,
moving along the leading edge of low-level moisture advection.
Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector
preceding this low will help moisten the low- to mid-levels enough
to support limited buoyancy, particularly as mid-level temperatures
cool. Ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will be
augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and more mesoscale
lift near the surface low. The resulting combination of lift and
buoyancy should support deeper convective structures capable of
lightning production. Most likely time frame for these deeper storms
is between 21Z to 04Z, with the highest coverage anticipated over
the Middle and Upper OH Valley.

Strengthening mid-level flow is also expected, with a belt of 100+
kt 500-mb winds spreading across the region after 21Z. This could
result in rotation and potentially some hail production within any
deeper, more persistent updrafts. However, the scant buoyancy is
expected to limit the number and duration of any deeper updrafts,
with the overall severe potential remaining low as a result.

..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/08/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 091250
SWODY1
SPC AC 091248

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A low risk for a few thunderstorms exists early in the period across
the Mid-South region.

...Synopsis...
Broadly cyclonic flow aloft, with several embedded shortwave
troughs, is expected across the northern CONUS today. Largely zonal
flow is anticipated across the southern CONUS, with negligible
height changes. Recent surface analysis shows an expansive area of
high pressure associated with a dry, continental airmass covering
much of the central and eastern CONUS. A weak frontal boundary is in
place from the TX Coastal Plains northeastward across the Southeast
States into NC, between the cooler and dry airmass to its north and
the modified Gulf airmass to its south. A slow southward progression
of this front is anticipated throughout the day, with this front
likely extending from southern GA westward along the Gulf Coast into
South TX by 12Z Monday.

...Arklatex into the Mid-South...
Modest warm-air advection across the frontal zone mentioned in the
synopsis is contributing to showers and isolated thunderstorms
across Arkansas this morning. 12Z LZK sounding sampled the airmass
supporting these showers and thunderstorms well, with a notable warm
nose contributing to scant elevated buoyancy above about 850 mb. The
warm-air advection is expected to persist over the region for at
least the next several hours, while it gradually shifts eastward and
weakens. This will support the potential for isolated thunderstorms
this morning from the Arklatex eastward into the Mid-South, with the
overall thunderstorm potential diminishing with eastern extent.

..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/09/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 101247
SWODY1
SPC AC 101245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas across
southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas tonight.

...TX/OK/AR...
Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough off
the southern CA/Baja CA coast. This feature is forecast to progress
quickly east-northeastward throughout the day, traversing the Southwest/northern Mexico and reaching the southern Plains by
tomorrow morning. Airmass ahead of this feature across the southern
Plains is currently cool and dry, with the moist airmass still
offshore. Mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave will lead
to some modest airmass modification, with upper 50s/low 60s surface
dewpoints potentially reaching the TX Hill Country/central TX by
tomorrow morning. Even with these moistening low levels, warm
mid-level temperatures will preclude buoyancy and deep convection
across much of the TX Coastal Plain.

Greater thunderstorm potential is anticipated farther north in
corridor from the Edwards Plateau into southeast OK and western AR
about 200 mi northwest of the primary synoptic boundary. Here,
aforementioned mass response and associated strengthening of the
low-level southwesterly flow will lead to moderate to strong
low-level warm-air advection and the development of modest elevated
buoyancy (generally above 800-750 mb). Isolated thunderstorms will
be possible as early as this afternoon across southeastern OK and
western AR. Persistent warm-air advection will likely contribute to
a continued potential for isolated thunderstorms across this region
throughout the evening. This persistent warm-air advection will also
help support the development of modest buoyancy into TX as mid-level temperatures cool ahead of the approaching shortwave. Resulting
buoyancy combined with increasing large-scale ascent should result
in addition isolated thunderstorm development from north TX into the
Edwards Plateau, largely after 06Z. Limited buoyancy should keep the
severe potential low throughout the period.

..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/10/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 111248
SWODY1
SPC AC 111247

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0647 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
CENTRAL ALABAMA....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern
Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. Some strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible from southeast Texas and the Lower
Mississippi Valley into southern Mississippi and central Alabama.

...Synopsis...
A pair of shortwave troughs are expected to progress through the
southern Plains today as the cyclonic flow aloft across the western
CONUS deepens. The first of these shortwaves is currently moving
through the southern High Plains while the second remains off the
coast of the northern Baja Peninsula. Both of those shortwaves are
expected to progress quickly eastward, with the lead wave reaching
the Mid-Atlantic by early Wednesday and the second shortwave
reaching central TX.

...Lower MS Valley into southern/central MS and AL...
As mentioned in the synopsis, the lead shortwave trough is currently
moving through the southern High Plains, with preceding warm-air
advection contributing to an expansive area of precipitation from
the TX Hill Country into the Mid-South. General expectation is that
this area of precipitation will gradually shift northeastward
throughout the day, remaining just ahead of the eastward-progressing
shortwave. Low-level moisture return ahead of the first wave will be
modest, particularly across TX where the modified Gulf moisture will
likely remain confined to the coastal plain. Farther east, greater
inland moisture advection is anticipated, with mid 60s dewpoints
advection through much of the Lower MS Valley by the early
afternoon. Lower 60s dewpoints are likely in the central portions of
MS and AL by the late afternoon/early evening.

Even with this low-level moisture advection, mid-level temperatures
will remain warm, keeping the overall buoyancy modest (i.e. MUCAPE
less than 1000 J/kg) across the region. In contrast to the modest
buoyancy, vertical shear will be quite strong, with effective bulk
shear over 50 kt from the Lower MS Valley into AL and MS during the
afternoon and evening. This strong vertical shear may be able to
compensate for the lower buoyancy, and there could be a window for a
few strong to severe storms this afternoon/evening along and ahead
of the cold front from southern MS into southern and central AL.
Primary risk would be damaging wind gusts, but enough low-level
shear exists for a low-probability tornado threat as well.

...Southern Plains late tonight...
Strong large-scale forcing for ascent will spread across the
southern High Plains and into west TX late tonight ahead of the
second shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis. Notable
moistening between 850 and 700 mb combined with mid-level cooling
will help support modest elevated buoyancy. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop across West TX tonight before then spreading eastward/northeastward into more of OK and north/central TX. Much of
this activity will be displaced well north/northwest of front and
greater low-level moisture. Some hail is possible, but updraft depth
and duration will be limited by weak buoyancy, and the current
expectation is for any hail to remain very isolated.

As these storms move east/southeast with time, some interaction
could occur with a warm front gradually moving northward into more
of southeast TX early Wednesday morning. Increased buoyancy as well
as enhanced mesoscale ascent in the vicinity of the front is
expected to result in greater thunderstorm depth and duration.
Vertical shear will remain strong as well, with all of these factors
supporting a greater severe potential across southeast TX and
adjacent far southwestern LA early Wednesday morning. Damaging gusts
and/or a brief tornado are the primary threats.

..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/11/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 120558
SWODY1
SPC AC 120557

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST STATES INTO WESTERN GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms will be possible this afternoon through late tonight
over the central Gulf Coast states and eventually into far western
Georgia. The risk for a few tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts
will be the primary concerns.

...Central Gulf Coast states into GA...
A mid-level shortwave trough initially over east TX this morning
will quickly move east-northeast into the southern Appalachians and
weaken through the late afternoon/early evening. Amplification of a
larger scale mid-level trough will occur over the central U.S.
during the period as a 500-mb jet streak strengthens to 110 kt by
early Thursday morning over the lower OH Valley. In the low levels,
a convectively augmented frontal zone will initially be draped from
the upper TX coast eastward along the coastal plain of the central
Gulf Coast.

Model guidance indicates the early morning shower/thunderstorm
activity near the Sabine River will move east-northeast across the
lower MS Valley and into AL during midday into the afternoon. A
risk for stronger storms will probably coincide with the southern
portion of this convective cluster on the northern fringe of
appreciable buoyancy closer to the coast. Considerable uncertainty
remains regarding the northward penetration of a warm sector into
central AL as the boundary advances northward as a warm front. As a
result, the northern portion of the Slight Risk across central AL is accompanied by a significant spread of varying model solutions
(e.g., 00z NAM/NSSL favoring more north and unstable warm sector vs.
a multitude of other model depictions). Nonetheless, it seems
plausible that diurnal destabilization along the Gulf Coast will aid
in the potential for isolated storm development away/south of the
frontal zone across LA/MS/AL. Forecast soundings generally show
500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE with moist boundary layer air and enlarged
hodographs. This likely environment --caveats in terms northward
extent-- will support organized storms. One potential scenario is a
relatively narrow/focused corridor for supercells, both ahead and
embedded within the main convective band, from near the southwest
AL/southeast MS vicinity east-northeast across south-central AL.
Confidence in a greater risk for tornadoes remains uncertain but
will be reassessed in later outlooks. During the evening, the
severe threat will gradually shift from west to east across MS into
mainly AL as the wind profile strengthens. It seems a risk for
severe will probably spread east into the FL Panhandle and western
GA during the overnight in the low CAPE/high shear regime.

..Smith/Weinman.. 02/12/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 131245
SWODY1
SPC AC 131243

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible from the Florida
Panhandle into southern Georgia and parts of the Central Valley of
California. Damaging winds and a brief tornado are the primary threats.

...Southeast...
Lead shortwave trough continues to progress through the OH Valley
this morning, and is expected to continue northeastward through the
Northeast today. Primary surface low associated with this system is
over the Lower Great Lakes, but a secondary triple point low exists
farther south over west-central GA. A cold front extends
southwestward from this secondary low off the AL coast while a warm
front extends eastward into the SC Lowcountry before arcing
northeastward along the SC and NC coasts. Warm sector between these
two features is characterized by temperatures in the upper 60s/low
70s and dewpoints in the 60s. A convective line is currently
traversing this warm sector, extending from the MMT vicinity in
central SC southwestward to off the FL Panhandle Coast east of ECP.
Modest buoyancy precedes this line across the central FL Panhandle
and southwest/south-central GA, but weakens with northern extent,
with MLCAPE dropping to less than 250 J/kg over southeast GA. In
contrast to this modest buoyancy, strong deep-layer shear extends
across the warm sector, which is contributing to modest updraft
organization within the line and occasional bowing segments. Shear
is expected to weaken throughout the day as the parent shortwave
trough becomes increasingly displaced north and the mid/low level
flow weakens. As a result, the severe potential over this region
today will likely be maximized from now through the next 4 to 6
hours while some overlap between the modest buoyancy and strong
shear exists. A few strong to severe storms are possible,
particularly where the line interacts with the warm front. Damaging
gusts will be the primary risk, but a brief line-embedded tornado is
possible as well.

...Central Valley of California...
Recent satellite imagery depicts an intense cyclone off the West
Coast, with a strong shortwave trough moving through its southern
periphery towards central CA. This shortwave is forecast to reach
the coast later this afternoon, with the ongoing warm-air advection
shower activity moving to the east/south as it does. As these
showers clear out, temperatures should warm into the upper 50s/low
60s while mid-level cold-air advection results in 500-mb
temperatures in the -22 to -25 deg C range. This will support weak
airmass destabilization, with modest buoyancy anticipated during the
afternoon. This could result in some deeper, more sustained
convection. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support
transient rotation within any deeper updrafts, yielding a localized
wind/brief tornado risk during the late afternoon.

..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/13/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 132053
SWODY1
SPC AC 131947

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL
0147 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025

Valid 132000Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible in parts of the
Central Valley of California. Damaging winds and a brief tornado are
the primary threats.

...Central Valley of California...
Satellite imagery depicts an intense cyclone off the West Coast,
with a strong shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery
towards central CA. Clearing behind morning showers associated with
WAA has allowed surface temperatures to rise into the upper 50s,
with dew points reaching the low 50s. Upper level cold-air advection
will result in 500-mb temperatures in the -22 to -25 deg C range,
supporting weak airmass destabilization through this afternoon. With
favorable shear profiles, current expectations is for a few stronger
updrafts to take on transient supercell structures within the
Central Valley, with the threat for marginally damaging winds and
perhaps a brief tornado or two.

...Southeast...
The lead shortwave trough continues to progress through the OH
Valley this afternoon, and is expected to continue northeastward
through the Northeast into tonight. The surface low associated with
this system continues to progress northeastward into far northern
New England/southern Quebec. A cold front extends southwestward from
this low through the eastern seaboard and off the Florida Coast.
Although MUCAPE has approached 1500-2000 j/kg ahead of the front,
deep layer shear has continued to decrease as the strongest dynamics
continue to depart as the trough progresses further northeast, and
boundary parallel flow will likely suppress any significant updraft organization. In turn, midday convection has continued to weaken,
with additional weakening expected through the rest of the
afternoon. Have opted to drop the marginal risk across the Florida
panhandle. A few brief gusts of winds are still possible with any
stronger updrafts, but any severe threat remaining appears to be minute.

..15_ows.. 02/13/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 141249
SWODY1
SPC AC 141248

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely today and tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large-scale upper trough over the western CONUS will further
amplify today as it moves over the Southwest and southern/central
Rockies. In association with this feature and related cold mid-level temperatures, isolated thunderstorms appear possible across parts of
the southern Great Basin and Four Corners vicinity. But, overall coverage/intensity of this convection should be limited by meager
low-level moisture.

As a surface low eventually consolidates from the central into
southern High Plains through tonight, low-level moisture will
continue to stream northward across parts of TX and the lower MS
Valley. Even though mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain
modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE should eventually develop
over these areas late this evening into the overnight hours.
Large-scale ascent with the upper trough should generally remain to
the west of this developing warm sector. But, strong low-level warm
advection and related lift should encourage showers and
thunderstorms to develop, especially after 06Z across portions of
the Ozarks/Mid-South. Some of these elevated thunderstorms could
produce hail, but this should generally remain sub-severe given the
marginal thermodynamic environment forecast.

..Gleason/Broyles.. 02/14/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 161257
SWODY1
SPC AC 161256

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTH FLORIDA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado or two remain possible
through about midday from north Florida to parts of South Carolina.
Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado may also occur northward
into parts of the Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon.

...Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic...
As an upper trough pivots northeastward from the Southeast to
Mid-Atlantic today, an extensive QLCS in progress this morning will
continue moving quickly eastward across north FL, southeast GA, and
SC. Greater low-level moisture and related weak instability is
present over parts of north FL and vicinity ahead of the line and a
surface cold front. Boundary layer moisture and buoyancy quickly
drop off with northward extent into GA/SC/NC. Still, very strong
low-level flow remains present across these regions, with a 50-70+
kt low-level jet supporting ample 0-3 km SRH. Current expectations
are for the northern portion of the line to gradually outpace
appreciable surface-based instability, while the southern portion
becomes increasingly displaced from the large-scale ascent
associated with the departing upper trough. Even so, scattered
severe/damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado or two should
remain possible through about midday given the strength of the
low-level flow present. See Mesoscale Discussion 108 for more
near-term details.

The northern portion this QLCS should remain generally elevated atop
a near-surface stable layer in the lee of the Appalachians in NC to
VA for the next few hours. But, it should eventually impinge on weak surface-based buoyancy later in the morning across the coastal
Carolinas to southeastern VA. With very strong low-level flow/shear
expected to be in place across these regions, any intensification of
the thin convective line may yield occasional damaging winds and
perhaps even a brief tornado. Even so, most guidance continues to
suggest the overall severe threat will remain isolated/marginal from
roughly NC northward into the Mid-Atlantic.

..Gleason/Broyles.. 02/16/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 181232
SWODY1
SPC AC 181230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening across parts
of southeast Texas, shifting across southern Louisiana tonight. Hail
should be the primary hazard, but a brief tornado and occasional
severe gusts may occur along the immediate Louisiana Coast.

...Southeast Texas into Southern Louisiana...
A mid-level shortwave trough will progress east-southeastward from
the Great Basin to the southern Plains by tonight. At the surface,
an arctic cold front will continue surging southward across TX
through the day, eventually reaching the TX Coast by late tonight.
Modest low-level moisture is forecast to advance northward
along/near the middle/upper TX Coast ahead of the front.
Thunderstorms should eventually form by this evening across parts of
southeast TX as the shortwave trough approaches. Various NAM/RAP
forecast soundings suggest this convection will likely remain
elevated above a near-surface stable layer. Still, around 1000-1250
J/kg of MUCAPE aided by modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates,
and strong deep-layer shear in the cloud bearing layer, may support
isolated severe hail with the more robust cores. This activity will
spread eastward across portions of southern LA late this evening and
overnight while posing mainly a continued hail threat. There is also
a low, but non-zero, chance of near-surface-based thunderstorms
along the immediate LA Coast late tonight into early Wednesday
morning, where somewhat greater low-level moisture should be
present. If convection can become surface-based across this area,
then isolated strong to severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief
tornado would be possible.

..Gleason/Dean.. 02/18/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 191244
SWODY1
SPC AC 191242

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A semi-organized cluster of thunderstorms remains off the
southeastern LA Coast this morning. This activity will track
towards, and eventually reach, the west-central FL Peninsula later
this afternoon. Nearly all guidance shows rapid weakening of the
convective cluster as it moves over cooler shelf waters and
approaches the FL Coast. The 12Z TBW sounding, along with various
NAM/RAP forecast soundings this afternoon from Tampa Bay and
vicinity, show rather poor low/mid-level lapse rates, which should
hamper development of any more than weak instability inland. While low/deep-layer flow appears conditionally favorable for organized
convection along/very near the coast, the meager thermodynamic
environment should limit the overall threat for severe wind gusts.
Still, an occasional strong gust may occur as the cluster weakens.

..Gleason/Dean.. 02/19/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 201218
SWODY1
SPC AC 201216

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0616 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Surface high pressure will remain over much of the central CONUS
today, as a cold front clears south FL and the Keys. Dry and/or
stable conditions will prevail for a large majority of the CONUS,
with minimal thunderstorm potential. One possible exception may be
across parts of the central Rockies as a shortwave trough moves over
this region through the afternoon. Still, with limited moisture
present, overall thunderstorm potential should remain less than 10
percent across this region.

..Gleason/Dean.. 02/20/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 210435
SWODY1
SPC AC 210433

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1033 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today
through tonight.

...Discussion...
Seasonably cold and/or stable conditions remain prevalent across the
U.S., and models indicate little change through this period. Deeper
mid-level troughing is forecast to continue to progress away from
the north Atlantic Seaboard, leaving split westerlies in its wake,
downstream of large-scale mid-level ridging building inland of the
Pacific coast through the Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains.

Within this regime, one short wave perturbation, emerging from the
Great Basin, is forecast to accelerate east of the southern Rockies,
toward the Mid South vicinity, while another digs through the Four
Corners states. The lead impulse will spread across the slowly
modifying remnants of expansive, seasonably cold surface ridging
initially encompassing much of the nation east of the Rockies, as
well as much of the Gulf Basin. Downstream of the trailing
impulse, it appears that a developing southerly return flow will
contribute to moistening off a modifying southwestern Gulf boundary
layer. Across the northwestern Gulf and inland of coastal areas, it
appears that the moisture return will be elevated above a
substantial cold surface-based layer, and beneath relatively warm
and capping layers further aloft.

..Kerr/Halbert.. 02/21/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 221231
SWODY1
SPC AC 221230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms remain possible from the middle and upper
Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley late today and overnight. A few
storms could produce some small hail.

...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs
progressing through the southern stream, with the lead wave moving
through the Ozark Plateau and the second wave dropping through AZ
towards northern Mexico. The lead wave is forecast to continue
eastward, moving quickly through the TN Valley and central
Appalachians before moving off the Carolina coast. The second
shortwave is expected to pivot more eastward as it moves along the
US/Mexico border before continuing across the southern High Plains
and reaching central TX by early Sunday morning.

Farther northwest, a shortwave trough and attendant strong mid-level
flow will likely reach the Pacific Northwest coast late
tonight/early tomorrow. Some deeper convective cores are possible
within the frontal band preceding this shortwave, a few of which
could be deep enough to produce occasional lightning flashes.

...Upper TX Coast into Southwest LA...
Recent surface analysis shows that the cold and dry airmass remains
firmly in place across the southern Plains, with surface ridging
anchored over AR maintaining offshore flow. This airmass is expected
to remain largely in place, with only modest modification throughout
the day. Much of the guidance keeps surface temperatures in the 40s
along the TX and LA coasts throughout the period.

Low to mid-level southwesterly flow is expected to increase as the
second shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis approaches the
region. Cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this shortwave as
well. As a result, despite persistent surface stability, some
elevated buoyancy is expected, with showers and embedded
thunderstorms anticipated from the early afternoon through Sunday
morning. The general expectation is for thunderstorm coverage to
maximize after 06Z Sunday as the shortwave moves through TX, with an
associated increase in large-scale ascent and decrease of the
mid-level temperatures. Fairly strong shear within the cloud-bearing
layer will overlap this modest thermodynamic environment, resulting
in the potential for a few strong, more persistent, and organized
updrafts embedded within the large precipitation shield. Some of
these storms may become strong enough to produce hail, but most
should be sub-severe (i.e. less than 1" in diameter), and the
overall severe coverage is still expected to be below 5%.

..Mosier/Grams.. 02/22/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 231239
SWODY1
SPC AC 231238

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0638 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are forecast across portions of Louisiana and
immediate surrounding areas today. Additional isolated thunderstorms
may occur in portions of Oregon/Washington. No severe weather is expected.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving
through the southern stream across TX. This shortwave is forecast to
continue eastward throughout the day, progressing through the Lower
MS Valley and ending the period over AL. Another shortwave trough
will follow in the wake of the first wave. This second shortwave,
which is currently over the central Rockies, is expected to continue
quickly southeastward, reaching central TX by early tomorrow morning.

Recent surface analysis places a low just off the Upper TX/southwest
LA coast, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low
through the northwest Gulf. This low is expected to move eastward
ahead of its parent shortwave trough, remaining just offshore while
gradually deepening. With this low expected to remain offshore,
little if any airmass modification in anticipated onshore with
offshore flow maintaining cool and stable surface conditions. Even
so, moderate low-level warm-air advection (supported by 850 mb winds
from 20 to 30 kt), will persist, supporting a broad area of mostly
showers from the Lower MS Valley across the central Gulf Coast.
Buoyancy will be limited by moist profiles and poor lapse rates, but
cool mid-level temperatures should still support enough buoyancy for
isolated to scattered thunderstorms throughout the day. Highest
thunderstorm coverage is expected over LA Coast.

Isolated thunderstorms are also possible across portions of OR and
WA amid the strong westerly/southwesterly upper flow and cooling
mid-level temperatures anticipated throughout the period. Greatest
thunderstorm chances are expected after 00Z across WA, as a
shortwave trough and associated large-scale forcing for ascent move
through the region.

..Mosier/Grams.. 02/23/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 241231
SWODY1
SPC AC 241230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR
SOUTHERN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS...AND OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OR AND WA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and
into far southern Florida from late afternoon through evening.
Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated
strong winds are also expected from the Oregon Cascades into
southeast Washington.

...Far Southern FL and the FL Keys...
Shortwave trough currently progressing off the TX Coast is expected
to continue eastward across the Gulf today, reaching the FL
Peninsula by early tomorrow morning. Cold mid-level temperatures and strengthening mid-level flow that accompany this shortwave are
expected to spread over central/southern FL and the FL Keys after
03Z. An attendant surface low attendant will progress quickly
eastward just ahead of the parent shortwave. The general consensus
among the guidance is for this low to be just off the west-central
FL Coast around 00Z before continuing across the central FL
Peninsula and into the western Atlantic by 12Z Tuesday.

Moistening of the low-level airmass is expected ahead of the
shortwave trough and attendant surface low, particularly after 18Z.
Widespread showers throughout the day will likely mitigate buoyancy
somewhat, but little to no surface-based inhibition is expected
south of the warm front (which will extend eastward from the surface
low across the central FL Peninsula) from the late afternoon onward. Thunderstorm coverage should increase along and ahead of the front
as it gradually pushes eastward.

Dewpoints near 70s across south FL and the FL Keys will result in
stronger buoyancy and the potential for deeper, more long-lived
updrafts. Strong vertical shear over the region supports the
potential for a few supercells with an attendant risk for damaging
wind gusts and a brief tornado or two. The development of a
low-level convergence zone is possible, which could result in a
favored corridor for strong to severe storms. Currently, this zone
is expected to remain just off south FL Coast, but a few storms in
this area could impact the Keys.

...Interior Pacific Northwest...
Recent satellite imagery shows an intense shortwave trough off the
Pacific Northwest coast, moving quickly northeastward. This
shortwave is forecast to continue northeastward throughout the day,
reaching the coastal Pacific Northwest this afternoon and the
interior Pacific Northwest tonight. A frontal band, with occasional
lightning, is expected to develop along the leading edge of the
strong forcing for ascent associated with this system. Temperatures
could reach the upper 50s/low 60s ahead of this line in northeast
OR/southwest WA amid steep low-level lapse rates and modest
buoyancy. As such, the overall environment supports the potential
for strong downbursts within the line as it moves across the region.

...Eastern Dakotas into the Mid MS Valley...
The low-amplitude shortwave trough currently moving through MT is
expected to continue southeastward today, moving across the northern
Plains and IA before ending the period over IL. A compact but strong
jet streak will accompany this shortwave, with 500-mb winds within
this streak from 90 to 100 kt. The downstream airmass will be dry,
and strong heating/mixing will help push afternoon temperatures into
the upper 50s and low 60s. Despite dry low levels, some modest
buoyancy is possible amid the deep mixing and cold mid-level
temperatures. Consequently, a few shallow thunderstorms are possible
as the strong forcing for ascent attendant to the shortwave
interacts with this limited buoyancy. Small hail and strong outflow
is possible with these storms, but overall coverage is currently
expected to remain too isolated to introduce any probabilities.

..Mosier/Grams.. 02/24/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 251233
SWODY1
SPC AC 251232

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0632 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the northern and central
Plains today into the Mid Mississippi Valley overnight. A few
isolated thunderstorms are possible across western Colorado as well.
Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Early morning satellite imagery reveals an active northern stream,
with one shortwave trough progressing through the Upper Great
Lakes/OH Valley and another moving into the northern Rockies,
downstream of a cyclone moving into southern British Columbia. The
lead shortwave is forecast to continue eastward throughout the day,
moving off the Northeast coast this evening. The second wave is also
forecast to continue eastward (perhaps slightly east-southeastward),
moving through the northern Plains this evening and into the Upper
Midwest by early tomorrow morning. Another shortwave trough will
follow quickly behind this second wave, progressing southeastward
from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies and UT.

At the surface, a low will move across the northern/central Plains
just ahead of the previously mentioned shortwave trough moving
across the northern Plains. Strong forcing for ascent and cooling
mid-level temperatures will support the potential for a few
thunderstorms near this surface low as it moves over the Dakotas
this afternoon and evening. A similar scenario is anticipated
farther south, where some isolated thunderstorms are possible this
in the vicinity of a weak secondary surface low over central KS.
Continued mid-level moistening within a steep lapse rate environment
ahead of this wave will contribute to a persisting potential for
isolated thunderstorms from the Mid MO Valley into southern
WI/northern IL late tonight/early tomorrow.

Some isolated thunderstorms could also occur across western CO where
modest buoyancy could develop amid strong boundary-layer mixing and
cooling mid-level temperatures. Persistent large-scale forcing for
ascent within this environment could support a few thunderstorm
during the afternoon and evening.

..Mosier/Grams.. 02/25/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 261233
SWODY1
SPC AC 261232

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0632 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Midwest and Ohio
Valley this afternoon and evening. Severe storms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs within
the northern stream, one currently over the central Plains and the
other farther west over the northern Rockies. The central Plains
shortwave is expected to continue eastward throughout the day,
moving through the Mid MS Valley and much of the OH Valley. Another
shortwave trough will follow quickly in the wake of this wave,
moving through Upper MS Valley late tonight/early tomorrow.
Evolution of these two waves will help sharpen the cyclonic flow
aloft over much of the Upper Great Lakes region and vicinity.

At the surface, a low attendant to the central Plains shortwave
trough was recently analyzed over central IA. A cold front extends southwestward from this low across southeast KS and western OK to
another low over northwest TX. The central IA surface low is
forecast to track eastward just ahead of its parent shortwave,
likely ending the period in the northern Lake Erie vicinity. As this
low moves eastward, the attendant cold front will progress eastward/southeastward across the Mid MS and OH Valleys. Isolated
thunderstorms are expected along this front as it moves eastward.

A few isolated thunderstorms also possible across northeast TX and
the Arklatex late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Here, a few
elevated storms are possible behind the surface front, amid modest low/mid-level moistening and convergence along the 850-mb front.

...Mid-South into the Middle OH Valley...
Limited moisture return is anticipated ahead of the cold front
mentioned in the synopsis, but mid 50s dewpoints could be in place
from southeast MO into southern IL and southern IN prior to the
passage of the cold front. Cooling mid-level temperatures and
surface temperatures in the upper 60s will combine with this limited
low-level moisture to support modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than
500 J/kg). Thunderstorm development is anticipated as the front
interacts with this modest buoyancy, beginning around 21Z across the
southeast MO vicinity. Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible
along the front as it moves across the OH Valley, with the
increasing large-scale ascent aiding the development of deep
convection into areas where surface dewpoints are lower and buoyancy
is scant. Deep-layer flow is strong enough to support some updraft organization, but the limited buoyancy is expected to keep updraft
duration too short for much organization. As such, the
severe-weather potential is low.

..Mosier/Grams.. 02/26/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 271303
SWODY1
SPC AC 271302

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0702 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025

Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the Mid and
Upper Ohio Valley to the Carolinas/southern Virginia.

...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs moving
through the broadly cyclonic flow aloft extending from the
northern/central Plains and southern Canadian Prairies into the OH
Valley and Northeast. The lead wave in the pair is currently over
the Upper OH Valley, and should continue northeastward through the
Northeast States today. The trailing wave is currently moving
southeastward through the Upper Midwest, with the expectation that
it will pivot more eastward as it moves through the Upper Great
Lakes and OH Valley today before then continuing eastward through
the Mid-Atlantic States overnight.

Recent surface analysis placed a low over eastern Lake Erie, with an
extensive cold front extending southwestward from this low into the
TX Hill Country. This low is forecast to progress northeastward up
the St. Lawrence Valley just ahead of the lead shortwave, with the
attendant front moving eastward/southeastward. A weak, secondary
frontal boundary is expected to move through the OH Valley,
demarcated primarily by a shift to stronger, more northwesterly
winds. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along both of these
fronts, mostly during the late afternoon and early evening.

...Mid/Upper OH Valley...
Very cold mid-level temperatures are expected to spread across the
region as the shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis progresses
through. These cold temperatures and associated steep mid-level
lapse rates will occur atop a well-mixed boundary layer, resulting
in 7 to 8 deg C/km lapse rates throughout the troposphere. These
lapse rates will help support modest buoyancy, despite surface
temperatures in the upper 40s/low 50s and dewpoints in the upper
30s. Isolated thunderstorm development is anticipated along the
surface boundary that is expected to move through the region, with
the greatest coverage in the OH/KY/WV border vicinity this evening. Predominantly low-topped thunderstorms with transient updraft
structures are anticipated. Even so, gusty winds and small hail may
be noted with the more persistent and organized updrafts. Overall
severe coverage is expected to be below thresholds for outlooking
any areas.

...Carolinas in central GA...
Modest pre-frontal buoyancy is expected to develop amid increasing
mid-level moisture and diurnal heating, supporting the potential for
isolated thunderstorms as the front moves through. Small hail and a
damaging gust or two are possible within the strongest storms, but a
largely anafrontal and elevated storm structure should keep the
overall severe potential low.

..Mosier/Grams.. 02/27/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 011218
SWODY1
SPC AC 011216

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0616 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may develop over parts of northern Arizona.

...AZ...
Morning water vapor loop shows an upper low off the coast of
southern CA approaching SAN. This feature will track eastward into
southwest AZ by this evening. The low-level environment will be
quite dry across AZ, limiting coverage of precipitation later today.
However, steep lapse rates near the upper low and rather strong
forcing in the left-front quadrant of an approaching mid/upper jet
max may encourage widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
over parts of northern and central AZ - mainly late this afternoon
into the evening. Very weak instability will preclude a risk of
severe storms.

..Hart/Grams.. 03/01/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 011624
SWODY1
SPC AC 011622

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1022 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025

Valid 011630Z - 021200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
12Z observed soundings, recent surface observations, and
satellite-based precipitable water estimates across AZ show very
little moisture present this morning. A closed upper low over
southern CA and northern Baja California will continue to advance
eastward across the Southwest through the period. While strong
large-scale ascent and cold mid-level temperatures will accompany
this feature, nearly all guidance shows a lack of even weak
instability until later this evening, mainly on the
subsident/backside of the upper low. While showers should eventually
move across parts of AZ late this evening and overnight, the
potential for thunderstorms appears less than 10% due to the very
limited low-level moisture and instability forecast. Elsewhere,
thunderstorms are not expected across the remainder of the CONUS
through tonight.

..Gleason/Thornton.. 03/01/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 021211
SWODY1
SPC AC 021210

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0610 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from western North
Texas into western Oklahoma this afternoon and early evening. Large
hail and strong/marginally severe winds, and a couple tornadoes are
the primary hazards.

...Western OK and Vicinity...
a compact and progressive upper low is tracking eastward this
morning across southern NM, along with an accompanying 90-100 knot
mid-level jet max. Large scale upper divergence and lift ahead of
the low will likely result in scattered thunderstorm activity by
mid-morning across west TX. This activity will spread eastward
through the day into western OK, with a low-end threat of hail in
the strongest storms.

In the wake of the morning activity, relatively strong heating is
expected to the east of the Caprock, where temperatures will climb
well into the 70s behind the dryline. A narrow corridor of modest
CAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) should develop along the dryline during the
peak heating period. Most CAM solutions suggest isolated convective
initiation by 21-23z as the primary upper jet max noses into the
region. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates
and strong deep-layer shear, favorable for supercells capable of
large hail. Low-level shear profiles will be quite strong, but
winds in the 3-5km layer exhibit a veer-back-veer pattern that may
disrupt discrete storm modes. Nevertheless, a couple tornadoes are
also possible.

The primary severe threat is expected to remain focused across
western OK and northwest TX where the best thermodynamic parameters
are forecast. However, storms will spread eastward through the
evening into central/southern OK and north TX with a continued
isolated severe hail/wind threat.

..Hart/Grams.. 03/02/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 031247
SWODY1
SPC AC 031246

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0646 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS...MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA...AND NORTH TEXAS....

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms should increase this evening and merge into a squall
line tonight across portions of the southern Plains. Severe gusts,
large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible.

...KS/OK/TX...
A large and progressive upper low is tracking eastward this morning
across the Great Basin. As this system and an associated 90-100
knot mid-level jet emerge into the Rockies and high Plains this
afternoon, rapid surface cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO.
Southerly low-level winds throughout the southern Plains will
transport Gulf moisture northward with 50s dewpoints into southeast
KS and lower 60s into central OK. It appears likely that the region
will remain capped to convective initiation through the afternoon
and much of the evening. However, rapid and intense thunderstorm
development is expected after 03z in south-central KS and northwest
OK as the Pacific cold front impinges on the dryline, and large
scale lift overspreads the area.

Initial storms will form in an environment of steep mid-level lapse
rates and favorable low-level shear for a few supercells capable of
large hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms are expected to
quickly coalesce into a squall line along the front as it races
eastward across southern KS and much of OK. Storms will also build
southward into north/central TX through the overnight period. Very
strong low-level wind fields (850mb winds of 50-70 knots) and
mid-level lapse rates of 7+ C/km will maintain a risk of damaging
wind gusts and hail through the early morning hours. A few QLCS
tornadoes, or perhaps embedded supercellular tornadoes, are also
possible late tonight as activity progresses across southern OK and
north TX. The primary forecast uncertainties limiting confidence
for an upgrade at this time involve the limited low-level moisture
(upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints) and weak CAPE due to late timing of
event. These parameters will be re-evaluated in later outlooks.

..Hart/Grams.. 03/03/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 061247
SWODY1
SPC AC 061246

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0646 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.

...Synopsis...
A mid- to upper-level trough over the West Coast will gradually
shift eastward into the Interior West as another large-scale trough
over the East Coast pivots eastward into the western Atlantic.
Surface high pressure will be centered over the central Gulf Coast
today while a lee low develops over the central High Plains. Widely
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible from
central CA eastward through the Great Basin and into the central
Rockies. Scant instability will preclude strong/severe storm
development with this activity.

..Smith/Jewell.. 03/06/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 071240
SWODY1
SPC AC 071238

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0638 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm development will be possible in parts of the Desert
Southwest and southern Plains today into tonight. The potential for
severe weather is expected to remain low.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level low and
associated trough over the lower CO Valley/Baja vicinity. Models
show this mid-level low moving east into NM by late tonight. In the
low levels, a low initially over KS will move east along a frontal
zone and weaken as it moves into the lower OH Valley. A trailing
cold front will push southward into central TX by daybreak Saturday.
A weak area of low pressure will move from NM into the Edwards
Plateau tonight. Southerly low-level flow/warm air advection around
850 mb will act to moisten profiles from central/north TX into
southern OK during the 08/09-12 UTC period. Forecast soundings over
western north TX show cold 500-mb temperatures (around -20 deg C)
and upwards of 500-1000 MUCAPE. Isolated to widely scattered
showers and a few elevated thunderstorms are possible. The majority
of members from the latest convection-allowing model guidance (e.g.,
00 UTC HREF, MPAS) imply limited storm intensity. The strong
effective shear/cold mid-level temperatures could support hail with
the stronger elevated cells, but the severe threat is currently
expected to be low.

..Smith/Dean.. 03/07/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 081249
SWODY1
SPC AC 081248

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS
EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms will be possible today and tonight from parts
of the southern Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states.

...TX eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low
over western NM, with the larger-scale trough pivoting east across
northern Mexico. The mid-level low will reach the OK/TX Red River
Valley late tonight as a belt of 80+ kt 500-mb flow moves through
the base of the trough and into the Ark-La-Tex and lower MS Valley
tonight. In the low levels, a cold front over central TX
east-northeastward into the Ark-La-Miss has provided some
post-frontal focus for morning shower/thunderstorm development over
north and northeast TX. A plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates
(7-8 deg C/km) extending eastward from the Permian Basin into east
TX has supported some elevated supercells with an attendant
hail/wind risk (see MCD #0155 for short-term details). Short-term
models indicate additional possible storm development later this
morning into northern portions of central TX near the I-35 corridor
where richer moisture resides. Additional storm activity is
possible this afternoon into tonight farther east over the northern
Gulf Coast states. It seems stronger storm coverage will probably
remain isolated, thereby limiting the overall severe risk. As this
activity shifts eastward later today into tonight, the potential for surface-based thunderstorms is expected to increase as the
convection gradually develops into a more moist airmass. Isolated
large hail and locally damaging thunderstorm gusts will be the
primary hazards, although a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

..Smith/Dean.. 03/08/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 091249
SWODY1
SPC AC 091247

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND THE PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today from
parts of northern Florida into far southeast Alabama and southern Georgia.

...Far Southeast Alabama/Southern Georgia/Northern Florida...
Morning surface analysis places a low near the mouth of the MS River
and a maritime front draped east over the continental shelf waters
south of the FL Panhandle. A lead mid-level shortwave trough,
evident in early morning water-vapor imagery, is moving east along
the central Gulf Coast. Farther upstream over AR-OK-TX, a mid-level
low and associated positive-tilt trough are forecast to move
east-southeastward into southern AL and the northern Gulf of
America. Episodic scattered showers/thunderstorms are forecast in
the vicinity or north of the west-east oriented frontal zone.
Surface-based development should be confined to areas near and to
the south of the front, where weak instability (200-800 J/kg MLCAPE)
and strong deep-layer shear (45-55 kt effective shear) are forecast.
A mix of a few strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms, in the
form of weak supercell structures and organized linear bands, will
be capable of isolated 55-70 mph gusts, perhaps a risk for a brief
tornado, and marginally severe hail (up to 1.25 inches in diameter).
A gradual waning of the severe risk is forecast by late evening.

..Smith/Dean.. 03/09/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 101227
SWODY1
SPC AC 101225

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0725 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with an isolated risk for severe gusts, and potentially a tornado, will be possible through early afternoon in
parts of north and central Florida.

...FL Peninsula...
Morning satellite/radar analysis shows a mid-level trough over AL/MS
moving east-southeast towards FL, while a broken band of pre-frontal showers/storms extends from parts of north FL south-southwestward
into the eastern Gulf west of Fort Myers. The mid-level trough will
move over the Peninsula by early evening. A cold front is forecast
to push southeast across the northern and central portions of the
Peninsula through mid afternoon and coincide with thunderstorm
development pushing east of the FL east coast. In the meantime, moist/southerly low-level flow will maintain a reservoir of moderate
buoyancy (1200 J/kg MLCAPE per the 12 UTC Tampa Bay raob). Strong
mid- to high-level flow will aid in storm organization contingent on
adequately strong/sustained updraft development. An isolated threat
for locally strong to severe thunderstorms will seemingly exist
prior to storms exiting the east coast later this afternoon.

..Smith/Dean.. 03/10/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 111155
SWODY1
SPC AC 111153

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected across far southern California
and into Arizona today into tonight. Severe storms are not expected.

...Discussion...
A potent mid to upper-level low west of southern CA will move east
and evolve into an open trough and reach the AZ-NM/Sonora-Chihuahua
border vicinity by early Wednesday morning. Isolated to widely
scattered showers associated with the cold core will spread east
during the day from southern CA into the lower CO Valley and
southwest AZ, and later into the Sonoran Desert/Mogollon Rim
tonight. Deeper convection near and east of the mid-level cold
pocket will probably result in occasional lightning flashes.
Elsewhere, quiescent conditions for thunderstorm activity will
prevail.

..Smith/Dean.. 03/11/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 120555
SWODY1
SPC AC 120554

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms producing large hail and localized wind
damage are possible from northern and eastern Texas into southeast
Oklahoma across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana late this
afternoon and evening. Isolated severe activity may persist as far
east as western Mississippi by Thursday morning.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level low will eject across the southern Plains today with
a belt of strong mid-level westerly flow across Texas and Louisiana.
In response, a surface low will develop across western Texas and
Oklahoma with increasing southerly flow and moisture return across
Texas into Oklahoma and into the lower Mississippi Valley ahead of
the dryline/front.

Initially, low levels will remain strongly capped during the
day/early afternoon, thereby inhibiting convection. As the mid-level
low approaches, cooling aloft will steepen lapse rates and lead to
increasing instability. As forcing overspreads the dryline/cold
front, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be
possible across portions of southeastern Oklahoma, southern
Arkansas, and northern Louisiana with the potential for damaging
winds and large hail.

...Northeast TX...Southeast OK...Southern AR...Northern LA...
As the surface low tracks eastward, upper-level flow will overspread
the dryline/cold front across southeastern Oklahoma into northeast
Texas. Models are in agreement that dew points in the upper 50s to
60s will reach the Red River by around 00z. Sounding profiles
indicate that a strong capping inversion will remain in place for
most of the morning and afternoon, with potential for strong daytime
heating and mixing that may lower dew points. Regardless, it appears
that MUCAPE aloft around 1000-1500 J/kg will develop above this, and
that convective development should occur by the later
afternoon/evening. Though there is some uncertainty on coverage,
deep layer shear around 45-55 kts and steep lapse rates would
support organized supercells with potential for very large hail and
damaging winds. The large hail threat remains most likely where
supercells can develop from northeast Texas into southeastern
Oklahoma, where forcing will intersect the dryline/cold front. This
is further supported by signal for development in most CAM guidance
as well as ensemble guidance from HREF, which develops UH tracks
across this region and has signal in paint balls for >40 dbz development.

As convection continues to develop and move eastward with time, some
upscale growth will be possible. The threat will likely transition
to primarily damaging wind into portions of southern Arkansas and
Mississippi before storms weaken in the less favorable air mass.

..Thornton/Goss/Squitieri.. 03/12/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 131244
SWODY1
SPC AC 131243

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALABAMA AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND WESTERN GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms producing hail and locally damaging gusts
are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia,
and parts of the Florida Panhandle today.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a convectively enhanced
mid-level vorticity max near the AR/TN/MS border and located within
a larger mid-level trough centered over the lower MS Valley. The
mid-level trough will move southeast over the FL Peninsula by mid
evening with the strongest accompanying belt of mid-level flow
shifting into the northern and eastern parts of the Gulf. Farther
west, a mid-level ridge will move east across the Great Plains into
the MS Valley as an intensifying trough quickly moves east across
southern CA to the southern High Plains during the period. A cold
front will push east across the lower CO Valley and Sonoran Desert.

...Northwest Mississippi, Central/Southern Alabama, western Georgia
and the western Florida Panhandle...
South-southwesterly low-level flow this morning is acting to advect
modestly more moisture (950-925 mb layer) into the region this
morning (reference 12 UTC Jackson, Birmingham, and Slidell, LA
raobs). This moisture is beneath the eastern fringe of an elevated
mixed layer that features steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.5 to 8.5
deg C/km per raob data). Ongoing cluster of showers/storms over
northern MS will probably slowly develop southeast through midday.
Ample heating to the south/southwest of northwest to
southeast-oriented surface trough will contribute to MLCAPE around
500-1000 J/kg. As the zone of ascent overspreads the destabilizing
airmass across AL into GA/FL, additional storms are forecast this
afternoon. Isolated to scattered storm coverage is forecast and a
few of the stronger storms will potentially yield an isolated threat
for severe. This activity will likely weaken by evening owing to
the loss of heating and departing large-scale ascent.

...Southern Arizona...
As a cold front progresses across southern Arizona, shower and
thunderstorm activity is expected to spread across the region. Flow
aloft will be quite strong, as a 100 kt jet max digs southward
across the Mexico border. It is possible some higher momentum flow
may mix down to the surface at times for a gust to approach severe
limits within convection. Overall, the weak thermal profile would
suggest the severe threat will remain low.

..Smith/Dean.. 03/13/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 171218
SWODY1
SPC AC 171216

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0716 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States.

...Synopsis...
The upper-air pattern today will feature a large-scale trough
exiting the East Coast as a ridge builds over the central U.S.,
followed by a trough moving into Interior West from the eastern
Pacific. A few weak thunderstorms may develop beneath a cold
mid-level trough along the Carolina coast later this afternoon.
Otherwise, dry offshore flow over the East Coast and Gulf Coast will
lead to tranquil conditions. A few widely spaced, weak
thunderstorms are possible over parts of the West.

..Smith/Thompson.. 03/17/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 181240
SWODY1
SPC AC 181239

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT
FROM EASTERN NE INTO IA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe hail is possible late tonight from
eastern Nebraska across much of Iowa.

...Eastern NE/IA late tonight and early Wednesday...
In advance of a pronounced midlevel shortwave trough over
UT/northern AZ this morning, a surface lee cyclone will deepen
across western KS and then move to far northwest MO by early
Wednesday. Moisture return in the warm sector of this deepening
cyclone will be limited by a prior frontal passage across the
Gulf/northwest Caribbean, with only a narrow corridor of low-mid 50s boundary-layer dewpoints expected from eastern OK to far northwest
MO. Though the warm sector will remain capped through the period,
there could be sufficient ascent/moistening for elevated
thunderstorm development by 06-12z from eastern NE across IA. Steep
midlevel lapse rates and relatively cold midlevel temperatures will
contribute to MUCAPE of 500-750 J/kg and the potential for isolated
large hail (a few instances near 1 inch diameter) with elevated
convection to the cool side of a baroclinic zone across eastern NE/IA.

..Thompson/Dean.. 03/18/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 201245
SWODY1
SPC AC 201243

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm development will be possible today in parts of the
Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. Severe weather is not expected.

...Eastern NC/southeast VA this afternoon...
A midlevel trough and an associated surface cold front will progress
eastward from the Appalachians to the Atlantic coast by late this
evening/early tonight. Only a narrow corridor of low-level
moistening is expected ahead of the front, as a result of only
partial air mass modification and poor trajectories from the Gulf
and western Atlantic. There could be sufficient heating and
moistening for very weak buoyancy (100-200 J/kg MLCAPE) and
convection deep enough to produce isolated lightning flashes in a
band along the front this afternoon, especially across eastern NC.
While there is a low chance for isolated wind damage, the very weak
buoyancy does not support the addition of severe wind probabilities.

..Thompson/Dean.. 03/20/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 211239
SWODY1
SPC AC 211238

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today.

...Synopsis...
Within a largely zonal flow regime, embedded shortwave troughs will
move from the Great Plains to the OH Valley, and inland over the
Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. The Great Plains trough
will move over NE/IA by this afternoon/evening with an associated
surface trough/weak cold front. Despite very limited low-level
moisture, surface heating beneath cold midlevel temperatures
(approaching -30 C at 500 mb) will allow for steep low-midlevel
lapse rates and weak surface-based buoyancy this afternoon/evening.
A few high-based, low-topped thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon through late evening. The steep lapse rates and
moderately strong midlevel flow suggest some potential for gusty
outflow winds and small hail/graupel with the convection, but the
threat appears too limited to warrant severe probabilities.

Otherwise, isolated lightning flashes will be possible later today
into tonight from the WA Cascades into the northern Rockies.

..Thompson/Bentley.. 03/21/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 221257
SWODY1
SPC AC 221256

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
KS/NORTHEAST OK TO OZARKS/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and
strong wind gusts are possible this evening and overnight from
northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into eastern Kansas
and much of Missouri.

...Northeast OK/eastern KS to Ozarks/Lower MO Valley...
A shortwave trough will steadily amplify and dig southeastward late
today and tonight across the northern Plains, with deepening surface
lows expected across the South Dakota/Minnesota vicinity as well as
the southern Plains tonight. Modest-caliber low-level moisture
return will precede a southeast-accelerating cold front across the Plains.

Daytime heating combined with the developing moist plume will lead
to destabilization over eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas
through late afternoon and early evening, with stronger elevated
instability rapidly developing across eastern Kansas and Missouri
during the evening into the overnight. Indications are that initial
storm development could occur by around 00-03Z over northeast
Oklahoma near the low-level jet axis as moisture spreads into the
heated-air mass and beneath cool temperatures aloft. Strong and
veering winds with height, as well as deepening moisture through 700
mb, will favor cells producing large hail as cells develop into
southern Missouri and possibly far northern Arkansas. Portions of
the OK/KS/AR/MO border vicinity will be reevaluated in subsequent
outlooks for the possibility of a semi-focused hail-related Slight
Risk upgrade. There may also be a low risk of a tornado, though
highly conditional at this time given the modest moisture, related
to the southernmost development closer to the stronger SBCAPE from
far northeast Oklahoma into extreme northwest Arkansas.

Overnight, as a cold front moves east-southeastward across Kansas,
lift will be enhanced further. A few cells or perhaps a cluster of
storms could develop along the front, conditional on capping, with
both hail and wind gust potential. In addition, the unstable air
mass extending north toward the Iowa/Missouri border will support
isolated hail as well within the warm advection regime.

...North-Central High Plains...
Steep lapse rates through a deep layer will develop this afternoon
north of the mid-level jet axis and behind the cold front and
developing surface low to the east. Forecast soundings indicate
minimal buoyancy in this drier air mass, however, moderate northwest
flow and favorable diurnal heating/mixing could yield a few stronger
wind gusts.

..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/22/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 231255
SWODY1
SPC AC 231253

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts are the main hazards, but a
couple of tornadoes could also occur.

...Northeast Texas/Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South...
The region will be influenced by strengthening cyclonic flow aloft
as a shortwave trough takes on a more negative tilt over the upper
Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes. The moderately strong
winds aloft will overlie an increasingly moist air mass (surface
dewpoints developing into the 60s F) across the region in advance of
an east/southeastward-moving cold front.

Destabilization will occur this afternoon ahead of the front, with
1000 J/kg MLCAPE as far north as the Missouri Bootheel, on the
southern edge of early day storms. Stronger instability will develop
farther south across the Mid-South and ArkLaTex/ArkLaMiss regions
with 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE possible. Given peak heating and
deepening moist boundary layer, scattered storms are likely to
develop and increase into mid/late afternoon along the length of the
front, and potentially just ahead of it within a zone of pre-frontal confluence. Initial vigorous activity is likely to produce large
hail perhaps over 1.75". As low-level moisture increases, deep-layer shear/low-level SRH will support supercells with some tornado risk
mainly across the ArkLaMiss/Mid-South. The evolving line of storms
is likely to persist for much of the evening as it shifts
east-southeastward into northern Alabama and central Mississippi.

..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/23/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 240555
SWODY1
SPC AC 240554

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN LA...MS...AL AND WESTERN FL/GA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible today
from southern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia and the Florida
Panhandle.

...Synopsis...
Amplified mid-level flow will progress across the CONUS as an upper
trough moves from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, and a ridge
builds steadily over the West. A cold front, trailing from a surface
low will advance toward the Atlantic and Gulf Coast before stalling
across south-central TX this afternoon. A band of thunderstorms will
move southeastward across portions of the Southeast with a risk for
marginal damaging gusts and hail.

...Southern LA, to southwest GA and the western FL Panhandle...
A band of loosely organized thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing
this morning ahead of the increasingly zonal cold front across parts
of southern LA, southern GA and the FL Panhandle. Moderate buoyancy
and modestly strong westerly flow aloft may support a continued
marginal hail and wind risk as these storms approach the Gulf Coast.
The most likely area for this appears to be across far southern LA
and MS. At least a couple hours of filtered diurnal heating is
possible ahead of the band of storms, along with access to somewhat
steeper mid-level lapse rates (~7 C/km) from the west. This could
support a slight rejuvenation of convection for a few hours, with a
risk for hail and damaging gusts. However, storms should move
offshore by early afternoon while the front and the remaining
unstable air mass stall just inland.

Farther east into the Carolinas, the late return of the deeper
surface moisture coupled with increasingly poor mid-level lapse
rates ahead of the eastward moving cold front suggests buoyancy will
not be large (< 500 J/kg MUCAPE). A few storms may still redevelop
along the primary surface front, with potential for isolated gusty
outflow winds. However, overall severe potential appears quite low
given increasingly limited buoyancy.

...South-central TX...
As the cold front stalls and begins to gradually lift northward,
strong diurnal heating and deep surface moisture could support very
isolated storm development across the higher terrain of the Edwards
Plateau and south-central TX. Area RAP soundings show steep
mid-level lapse rates (~8 C/km) and 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE, which
could support a conditional severe risk for hail and damaging gusts.
However, this appears unlikely given subtle mid-level height rises
and little ascent away from the slow moving surface front. As such, probabilities will continue to be withheld given the low conditional
risk.

..Lyons/Darrow.. 03/24/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 251253
SWODY1
SPC AC 251252

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AS WELL AS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts
of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas.

...Southern Florida Peninsula...
The region will be influenced by cyclonically curved westerlies
aloft associated with a prominent Eastern States longwave trough.
Relatively cool mid-level temperatures (-13 to -14C at 500mb) will
support moderate buoyancy across the southern Peninsula this
afternoon as temperatures warm into the 80s F. While deep-layer wind
profiles will remain somewhat modest, solenoidal influences should
encourage isolated convection, some of which could potentially be
severe. Strong gusty winds, and perhaps isolated severe hail, could
occur with this diurnally driven activity.

...Southeast Oklahoma and North/Central Texas...
Upper heights will tend to rise as a front shifts/refocuses
northward toward the Red River vicinity later today. Strong
boundary-layer heating is expected especially to the west of the
I-35 corridor, where convective temperatures will be breached by
late afternoon as readings rise through the mid 80s F. While recent
HRRR runs are relatively limited in terms of implied convective
development, various global and convection-allowing models suggest
that diurnally aided development across central into north Texas is
plausible toward/just after peak heating, with a greater probability
and coverage for storms nocturnally into southern/eastern Oklahoma.
Isolated large hail could occur regionally in either regime, with
some potential for strong wind gusts as well, mainly in areas near
the Red River southward across North Texas. A greater confidence in
diurnally related storm development/coverage could warrant
consideration of a focused hail-related Slight Risk in subsequent
outlooks.

..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/25/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 261253
SWODY1
SPC AC 261252

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON/OREGON...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Pacific
Northwest this afternoon and evening, with supercells possible west
of the Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These storms may
produce large hail, perhaps a tornado or two, and strong wind gusts.

...Pacific Northwest...
A very active early season severe risk is expected regionally today.
A seasonally strong upper low over the coastal Pacific Northwest
will shift eastward today, highlighted by a 100+ kt mid-level speed
max that will overspread coastal areas by evening. Strong height
falls will similarly spread across this region and the associated
synoptic cold front should arc from off the Washington Coast to
southward along the Oregon Coast by evening.

Low-level mean-mixing ratios are notably high, as compared to
typical daily climatological values (highest 5-10%), this morning
based on 12z observed soundings from Salem and Medford, Oregon.
Large-scale forcing for ascent will contribute to a further
moistening of profiles and PW values may approach 1 inch prior to
convective initiation. Cold mid-level temperatures and a plume of
steepening mid-level lapse rates will also notably overspread the
region. Of particular concern are the cold mid-level temperatures,
and the steep lapse rate plume that will overspread this region.
Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures should be
breached by 21-22z west of the Cascades, and surface-based CAPE
should reach/exceed 1000 J/kg coincident with a favorably sheared
environment for organized, rotating updrafts.

Isolated to scattered robust convection seems likely to develop by
21-22z across western Oregon, immediately ahead of the strong
forcing. This activity should grow upscale and develop
north-northeastward ahead of the approaching speed max, with
profiles favoring supercell development. Hail should be common with
this activity and the strongest updrafts may generate quite large
hailstones, possibly exceeding golf ball size, or even larger with a
few of the most intense storms. Some tornado risk will also exist,
particularly where low-level winds maintain at least a modest
easterly component. Damaging winds may also occur.

...Texas Lower Rio Grande River Valley...
Water vapor imagery depicts a substantial sub-tropical cirrus plume
from the southern Baja Peninsula, across Mexico toward the lower Rio
Grande Valley. A weak disturbance will approach the international
border through mid day, and this will draw a substantial moisture
plume across South Texas. Forecast soundings exhibit modest lapse
rates despite the moistening profiles. While forecast shear is not
particularly strong, especially with northward extent, some
organization is possible and this activity could generate gusty
winds and/or hail. Otherwise, a considerable amount of convection is
expected across this region which may tend to disrupt and limit
organizational potential.

..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/26/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 271258
SWODY1
SPC AC 271256

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND SOUTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are possible in south Texas.
Across parts of the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys, isolated
to scattered large hail and localized severe wind gusts are
possible, mainly during the late afternoon and evening.

...South Texas...
The slow-moving upper trough will eject across northern Mexico
toward deep South Texas by the end of the period. Strongest
mid-level flow will translate through the base of the trough, south
of the international border into the lower Valley of Texas by early
evening. A low-level jet will remain focused across south Texas and
multiple rounds of deep convection are expected. While regenerative
convection and outflow will limit the northern extent of more
appreciable destabilization, adequate buoyancy, a modestly steep
lapse rate environment, and deep-layer shear will support robust
updrafts and storm organization. Hail/wind appear to be the main
threats, although a tornado or two can not be ruled out.

...Central Plains to Lower Missouri/Middle Mississippi Valleys...
Scattered thunderstorms, including a few lingering strong storms,
continue early this morning mainly across northwest Missouri and far
southern Iowa. These storms will continue to transition
east-southeastward, with severe-storm potential remaining limited as
the low-level jet/warm advection abate this morning.

As the regional upper ridge tends to flatten later today into
tonight, steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread this region.
Convective inhibition may become sufficiently weak by late
afternoon/early for isolated thunderstorm development near the warm
front/wind shift including a corridor across northern Kansas,
southeast Nebraska to southwest Iowa/northwest Missouri.
Supercellular development could occur in the presence of moderate
instability and favorable wind profiles featuring around 35-40 kt
effective shear magnitudes. A greater coverage of elevated storms
will occur tonight as the low-level jet reestablishes and storms
expand eastward regionally. Large hail is the most probable hazard
in both regimes.

..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/27/2025

$$
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