ACUS03 KWNS 280659
SWODY3
SPC AC 280658

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across the
Permian Basin and southwest Texas. Large to very large hail and
severe gusts are the primary hazards.

...Southern High Plains...
A mid- to upper-level trough near southern CA Saturday morning will
move east into southern AZ/northwestern Mexico by late Saturday
night. A belt of moderately strong west-southwesterly 500 mb flow
(35-40 kt) will nose eastward across northern Mexico into southern
NM and southwest TX during the evening/overnight. Moist
southeasterly upslope flow will maintain a seasonably moist airmass
in the Permian Basin featuring 60s F dewpoints. Strong heating will
result in steep 0-2 km lapse rates and a moderate to very unstable
airmass by late afternoon from southwest TX into southeast NM
(2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE). Veering flow in the low to mid levels
beneath 70 kt 250 mb flow, will result in a wind profile supporting
supercells. By early evening, low-level shear is forecast to
strengthen coincident with a strengthening LLJ over west TX and
perhaps a narrow window of opportunity for a tornado risk with the
stronger supercells. Upscale growth into a cluster or two will
probably occur and this activity may persist into the late evening
with severe gusts becoming the primary hazard.

Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms are possible across the FL
Peninsula, eastern NC, and over the central High Plains.

..Smith.. 05/28/2021

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ACUS03 KWNS 040729
SWODY3
SPC AC 040727

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Fri Jun 04 2021

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms with gusty winds and hail will be
possible across a portion of the upper Mississippi Valley as well as
the southern High Plains on Sunday.

...Upper Mississippi Valley region...

A low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within belt of stronger
westerlies will move along the international border and through
southern Manitoba and western Ontario during the day. A cold front
will accompany this feature and move through the northern Plains and
into upper MS Valley during the day. By late afternoon the front
should extend from northwest MN southwest through eastern SD into
western NE. A corridor of moderate instability is expected in the
pre-frontal warm sector with 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. The deeper
forcing for ascent attending the shortwave trough will remain north
of the international border, but frontal convergence might be
sufficient to initiate a few storms by late afternoon, especially
across MN. Storms that develop might become capable of producing a
few locally strong wind gusts and hail through early evening before
weakening as the surface layer begins to stabilize.

...Southern High Plains...

Closed upper low currently situated over TX is forecast to drift
slowly northward into OK Sunday. Modest northwest winds aloft will
prevail upstream of this feature over the southern High Plains. A
corridor of moderate instability will likely evolve where plume of
steeper lapse rates overlaps the western fringe of richer low-level
moisture across west TX. Potential will exist for a few storms to
develop over the higher terrain and within the more deeply mixed
regime across eastern NM and spread southeast. Southeasterly
low-level winds beneath modest northwest winds aloft will contribute
to 30-35 kt effective bulk shear. This environment will support some
threat for large hail and locally strong wind gusts as storms spread
southeast during the late afternoon through mid evening.

..Dial.. 06/04/2021

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ACUS03 KWNS 250807
SWODY3
SPC AC 250807

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are most likely Wednesday night over parts of the
lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. A few strong
storms cannot be ruled out.

...Synopsis...
On Wednesday, an upper trough will develop from the Upper MS Valley
into the central Plains as an 80 kt 500 mb speed max moves across
northern TX and OK. Height falls with this system will spread over
much of the OH/TN Valleys and southeastern states, with the speed
max likely intensifying through 12Z Thursday.

At the surface, low pressure will move from OK toward the MO
Bootheel trough 00Z, then will gradually deepen into WV overnight. A
cold front will trail southwestward from the low, providing lift as
it interacts with a developing moist plume across the Gulf Coast
States.

...Sabine Valley into the TN Valley...
A warm front will be situated along the northern Gulf Coast
Wednesday morning, and will move north across much of LA during the
day. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will likely exist from southeast
TX across southern LA by 00Z. The air mass will likely remain capped
during the day, but scattered thunderstorms are forecast overnight
as the front continues east. Despite strengthening deep-layer shear
(with strongly veered 850 mb flow), the main mitigating factor will
be the relatively cool boundary layer and inversion near 700 mb.
This should preclude much activity away from the front, and reduce
severe potential overall. However, deepening of the moist boundary
layer overnight along the front, beneath strong westerly flow, could
result in a few strong storms producing damaging gusts.

Given these factors, will not introduce low severe probabilities
this outlook cycle.

..Jewell.. 11/25/2024

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ACUS03 KWNS 230821
SWODY3
SPC AC 230820

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Christmas Day (Wednesday).

...Discussion...
A lead southern-stream shortwave trough will tend to weaken across
the Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley on Wednesday, while a
secondary shortwave trough modestly amplifies as it progresses east-southeastward over the southern Rockies toward far west Texas
Wednesday night. Some thunderstorms may linger during the day across
Louisiana and the upper Texas coast, and possibly into other parts
of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Related to the secondary shortwave
trough, isolated elevated thunderstorm development may also occur
late Wednesday night across far eastern New Mexico into
west/northwest Texas including the Texas Panhandle, with forecast
soundings plausibly showing a couple hundred J/kg MUCAPE across this
region by daybreak (12z) Thursday.

Additionally, a few thunderstorms could again occur near the coastal
Pacific Northwest/northern California Wednesday night as a shortwave trough/frontal band approaches and mid-level lapse rates steepen.
Little or no severe-weather potential is currently expected with any
of these scenarios, largely attributable to minimal buoyancy in each
instance.

..Guyer.. 12/23/2024

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ACUS03 KWNS 150722
SWODY3
SPC AC 150721

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN IA/NORTHERN
MO/EASTERN NE...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms, with a primary threat of large hail,
are possible on Thursday evening/night, centered on eastern
Nebraska, northern Missouri, and Iowa.

...Synopsis...
A longwave trough, consisting of multiple embedded shortwave
impulses, will become established from the southern Prairie
Provinces across the West to off the Baja CA coast. Peak surface
cyclone amplitude is expected over western KS on Thursday afternoon,
with a surface trough/baroclinic zone extending north-northeast into
MN. A dryline will arc across eastern KS into the southern Great
Plains. The cyclone will fill as it tracks east-northeast along the
baroclinic zone towards the MO/IA border area Thursday night.

...IA/MO/NE...
Along the leading edge of a stout EML and effective 700-mb warm
front, isolated to scattered elevated convection should be ongoing
at 12Z Thursday across parts of the Lower MO Valley. This activity
may persist eastward through the morning and pose a threat for
isolated severe hail. Neutral mid-level height change is anticipated
in its wake, likely confining early evening surface-based storm
potential to immediately downstream of the triple-point region in
the KS/NE/MO/IA border area. While the spatial extent of MLCIN away
from the dryline is a concern, another day of modifying moisture
return northward from the western Gulf should yield a confined plume
of upper 50s surface dew points and moderate buoyancy. A veering
wind profile with height will foster strong deep-layer shear and
supercell potential.

As the low-level jet becomes rather strong across OK/KS/MO, greater
convective coverage is anticipated Thursday night. Elevated storms
producing large hail should be the primary hazard from the
post-frontal environment in central/eastern NE to across the Mid-MS
Valley by early morning Friday.

..Grams.. 04/15/2025

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ACUS03 KWNS 250731
SWODY3
SPC AC 250730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains
and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms
are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday
evening/night.

...Discussion...
A moderately strong mid-level jet streak will extend from the
Southwest and into the Central Plains on Sunday as a mid-level
trough advances eastward through the Intermountain West. As this
occurs, a strong surface cyclone will develop in the central High Plains/northern Plains. This strengthening cyclone will draw richer
low-level moisture into the northern Plains while a dryline sharpens
across the High Plains.

Forecast guidance is consistent showing a sharp dryline extending
from southwest Nebraska southward to the Texas Big Bend. Mid to
upper 60s dewpoints east of this dryline and strong heating will
support moderate to strong instability by Sunday afternoon. Forecast
soundings show a weakly capped airmass along the entirety of the
dryline. Therefore, weak height falls and a sharp dryline
circulation will likely be sufficient for at least isolated
supercell development along the dryline. At this time, storm
coverage appears too sparse to support greater probabilities, but a
favorable environment will support a conditional threat for all
severe weather hazards wherever supercells can develop.

Farther north, near the surface low, storm coverage probabilities
increase due to stronger forcing. A slight risk has been introduced
across portions of central Nebraska into southern South Dakota where
the greatest potential for late afternoon/evening supercell
development exists. As the low-level jet intensifies after 00Z, more
widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated along and north
of the warm front across the Dakotas and into western Minnesota
Sunday night.

..Bentley.. 04/25/2025

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ACUS03 KWNS 290718
SWODY3
SPC AC 290717

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
TEXAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected from central Texas
into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the Great Lakes. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail.

...Discussion...
A mid-level trough will eject across the Midwest into the
Mississippi and Ohio Valleys region on Thursday, with a broad area
of enhanced southwesterly flow extending from the lower Mississippi
Valley into the Great Lakes region. A cold front will sag southward
through this region, with potential for scattered thunderstorm
development throughout the day Thursday across a broad region. A
primarily marginal risk for wind and hail will be possible with this
activity. This overall risk is limited by displacement of better
shear northward through time with respect to the more favorable air
mass across Tennessee southward into northern MS/AR/northern LA.
Nonetheless, dew points in the mid 50s to 60s will extend as far
north as the Great Lakes, where stronger deep layer shear is
forecast which supports bringing the probabilities into this region.

Early in the D3/Thursday period, a line of thunderstorms may be
ongoing across northeastern Texas into central Arkansas. Some re-intensification of this activity will be possible through the
afternoon as the air mass downstream warms and becomes favorably
unstable. Weaker shear profiles and forcing gradually shifting
northward through the afternoon/evening will likely keep this threat
lower. Nonetheless, potential for damaging wind will be possible.

Further west across the dryline in central Texas, deep layer flow
will remain modest enough to support potential for some thunderstorm development by the late afternoon. While low level shear will be
weak, deep layer flow will support potential for instances of severe
hail, given steep low to mid-level lapse rates.

..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/29/2025

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ACUS03 KWNS 030739
SWODY3
SPC AC 030738

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into
parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very
large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional
strong to severe storms capable of large hail are possible along the
eastern Florida Peninsula coast.

...Synopsis...
With the upper-level blocking pattern still in place, movement of
the upper lows in the Ohio Valley and Southwest will be slow. The
Southwest upper low is expected to make enough progress eastward
that stronger mid-level winds will spread more broadly across the
southern Plains.

...Southeast Colorado into southern High Plains/central Texas...
Moisture return will continue roughly along the Rio Grande Valley
into portions of central Texas and the Permian Basin. Models differ
on the northward advancement of this moisture, but generally agree
that low 60s F dewpoints should reach southeast New Mexico and parts
of the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend. As the mid-level shortwave trough
ejects into the region by the afternoon, convection is expected to
form within the Davis Sacramento Mountains as well as on the surface trough/dryline. These initial storms will likely be supercellular
given 50-55 kts of effective shear and 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Large
to very-large hail and isolated severe gusts would be the main
threats. During the evening, the low-level jet and moisture
advection will strengthen. Upscale growth into one or more clusters
of storms will be possible as this occurs. This pattern would
support MCS development and a greater risk for severe wind gusts,
but with the placement of the theta-e gradient uncertain, an
increase in severe probabilities will be withheld at this point.

Additional strong/severe storms are possible along the pseudo warm front/moisture gradient in central Texas during the afternoon. There
is some potential for additional activity during the evening
overnight depending on the evolution of convective clusters/MCSs
farther west.

...Florida...
Moderately strong flow aloft will continue on Monday across the
Florida Peninsula on the southern flank of the upper low.
Temperatures aloft will remain relatively cool (-10 to -12 C at 500
mb) and stronger surface heating should promote 1500 to perhaps 2000
J/kg MLCAPE. As storms develop on the eastern sea breeze boundary, a
few strong to severe storms will be capable of large hail and
isolated damaging winds.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Early day precipitation and cloud cover make afternoon
destabilization uncertain in this region. Winds fields will support
organized storms, however. If confidence increases in greater
destabilization within parts of the Blue Ridge/Piedmont region, a
marginal hail/wind risk may be warranted.

..Wendt.. 05/03/2025

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ACUS03 KWNS 171921
SWODY3
SPC AC 171921

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday
from parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas.

...Parts of New England to the Southeast...
A mid-level trough and associated surface cold front will move east
from the eastern Great Lakes to the Atlantic coast on Thursday.
Ahead of this cold front, upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are
forecast from the southeast to New England. Modest heating ahead of
this front should result in moderate to strong instability ahead of
the cold front Thursday afternoon. Mid-level flow will gradually
strengthen from south to north with increasing storm
organization/severity expected. The most focused zone of a
potentially greater severe weather threat will likely exist from
eastern Pennsylvania northward into eastern New York and Vermont.
While instability is not forecast to be as strong this far north,
strong forcing and strong shear may result in supercells and
organized bowing segments with damaging wind gusts as the primary hazard.

...Southwest Montana...
Weak height falls are expected across western Montana on Thursday afternoon/evening. Weak instability is forecast to develop across
the region as temperatures warm into the 80s. These high-based
thunderstorms will be capable of isolated severe wind gusts given
the very deeply mixed boundary layer and strong shear across the region.

...Upper Midwest...
A southeastward moving mid-level shortwave trough will traverse
northern Minnesota and Wisconsin Thursday afternoon. Some
strengthening of the low-level jet is anticipated as this shifts
southeast with increasing isentropic ascent. Moderate instability
within this zone may permit isolated strong to severe storms where
isentropic ascent is maximized. Large hail and damaging wind gusts
would be the primary threat.

...Northern Plains...
Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across the
northern Plains Thursday afternoon/evening. Storms may develop along
the dryline/surface trough. However, rising heights aloft may keep
convective coverage limited across the region. In addition, a
nocturnally strengthening low-level jet may result in additional
strong to severe storm development across portions of the northern
Plains Thursday night.

..Bentley.. 06/17/2025

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ACUS03 KWNS 040707
SWODY3
SPC AC 040706

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A few storms may produce isolated severe wind and hail along the
central High Plains on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
Zonal upper flow, with multiple embedded mid-level impulses, will
become established over the northern CONUS as an upper trough
continues to meander along the CA coastline on Sunday. A weak
surface trough will become established over the Northeast while a
relatively nebulous surface pattern will characterize much of the
remaining CONUS. Widespread rich low-level moisture, amid an
uncapped airmass, is expected across much of the U.S. east of the
Rockies on Sunday afternoon, supporting thunderstorm development
across the Great Plains into parts of the Great Lakes/MS Valley and
toward the Carolina Piedmont. Weak upslope flow along the central
High Plains, beneath cooler temperatures aloft, will promote
adequate instability amid modest vertical wind shear to support an
isolated severe threat.

...Central High Plains...
By Sunday afternoon peak heating, low 60s F surface dewpoints will
advect northwestward across western NE into eastern CO and WY,
beneath 8.5 C/km low and mid-level lapse rates, promoting over 2000
J/kg MLCAPE over several locales. By early evening, modest 500 mb
westerlies will overspread a 25 kt south-southeasterly low-level jet
across the central High Plains, resulting in up to 40 kts of
effective bulk shear. There is an appreciable chance for a few of
the stronger storms to organize into multicells and supercells,
especially across northeastern CO into western NE, where the best buoyancy/shear overlap should occur. Isolated severe hail and wind
are the main threats, though a tornado could not be ruled out,
especially if a sustained supercell can develop.

..Squitieri.. 07/04/2025

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ACUS03 KWNS 010713
SWODY3
SPC AC 010712

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail
will be possible on Sunday across parts of the High Plains.

...High Plains...
At mid-levels, flow will become northwesterly across much of the
High Plains on Sunday, as a ridge becomes established across the
Intermountain West. At the surface, a moist axis will be in place
across the Great Plains, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in
the 60s F. By afternoon, moderate instability is expected to develop
along the western edge of this moist airmass. As surface heating
takes place, isolated thunderstorm development is expected in areas
where low-level convergence becomes maximized. Near the instability
axis, the models are forecasting moderate deep-layer shear and steep
low to mid-level lapse rates. This should be enough for an isolated
severe threat, with a few severe wind gusts and hail possible. These
storms are expected to form in the afternoon, as a shortwave trough
exits the region. Subsidence behind the trough should keep any
severe threat localized.

..Broyles.. 08/01/2025

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ACUS03 KWNS 140724
SWODY3
SPC AC 140723

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Sporadic strong storms are possible Saturday from the Black Hills
eastward to Wisconsin.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper ridge will remain over the Plains on Saturday, with the
upper high centered over MO. Low-level moisture will remain abundant
over much of the Plains and MS Valley, with southerly winds along
and south of an east-west oriented front. This front will stretch
roughly from SD to WI, and provide a focus for bouts of
thunderstorms through the period.

Areas of storms may be ongoing Saturday morning from SD into WI,
where warm southwest winds will continually impinge upon the frontal
zone. Some of this activity could produce sporadic strong gusts.

Later in the day, further destabilization could result in a renewal
of storms from central MN into WI. While moderately unstable,
deep-layer shear will be modest, with somewhat disorganized storm
modes possible. Predictability is too low to denote the exact
corridor for isolated severe at this time.

Farther west, afternoon storms will be possible over the Black Hills
and surrounding areas, especially late in the day and into the
evening. Some of this initial activity could produce localized hail
or strong gusts. Low-level winds will be weak, with little overall
focus. As such, will defer possible low probabilities to later
updates.

..Jewell.. 08/14/2025

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