FOUS11 KWBC 160820
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
320 AM EST Sat Nov 16 2024

Valid 12Z Sat Nov 16 2024 - 12Z Tue Nov 19 2024

...Western U.S....
Days 1-3...

As one storm system originally over the Intermountain West last
night departs (leaving some light-moderate mountain snow over parts
of the central Rockies in its wake this morning), attention shifts
to the next Pacific storm system that is set to bring an onslaught
of heavy snow to the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies this
weekend and into early next week. Precipitation will arrive
Saturday morning as a warm front approaches from the West. Snow
levels start out around 3,000ft Saturday morning, but strong warm
air advection associated with the warm front will cause snow levels
to rise above 7,000ft in the OR Cascades, while they are more
focused around 5,000ft in the northern WA Cascades Saturday night.
This same moisture plume, which is associated with a >500 kg/m/s
IVT that also happens to be above the 90th climatological
percentile according to NAEFS, will advect rich low-mid level
moisture well inland into the northern Rockies Saturday night. By
Sunday, while moisture advection into the Cascades will not be as
strong, a cold front passing through on Sunday will cause snow
levels to plummet to as low as 2,000ft in the WA Cascades and
2,500ft in the Oregon Cascades by Sunday evening.

These falling snow levels will also occur inland across the
Northern Rockies Sunday night and into Monday. NAEFS by 00Z Monday
shows 500mb heights that are below the 10th climatological
percentile throughout the northwestern U.S.. By Monday afternoon,
700mb temperatures are unusually cold across the Pacific NW with
temps as cold as the 2.5 climatological percentile. This unusually
cold air-mass is in place at the same time as steady onshore flow
perpendicular to the Cascades and northern Rockies continues to
support moderate-heavy snow from the Olympics, Cascades, and
northern Rockies to as far south as the Salmon Mountains of
northern California. Heavy snow not only looks to continue through
Monday night in the Cascades and Olympics, but a much stronger
Pacific storm system arrives on Tuesday with more heavy snow and
much stronger winds.

Through 12Z Tuesday, WPC PWPF shows which chances (>70%) for
snowfall >18" in the Oregon Cascades, the northern Bitterroots of
the Idaho Panhandle, and the tallest peaks of the Lewis Range. The
northern Washington Cascades show high chances (>70%) for over 2
feet of snowfall with some of the tallest peaks above 7,000ft
topping 3 feet. Impacts will be the worst in these aforementioned
areas with Moderate to Major Impacts shown on the WSSI, which
includes some of the notable passes in the OR/WA Cascades.
Elsewhere, WPC PWPF shows high chances (>70%) for >12" of snowfall
in the Blue, Boise, and Sawtooth Mountains. Similar high chance
probabilities exist in the Tetons for >8" of snowfall. The WSSI
shows Minor to localized Moderate Impacts in these mountain ranges.

...Eastern MT & Western ND...
Day 1...

Over the past 24 hours, guidance shows the upper level trough
tracking through southern Montana tonight to be more potent and
compact than originally shown. The region remains beneath the
divergent left-exit region of a 250mb jet streak located over the
Four Corners region. As the 700mb low tracks through eastern
Montana this morning, a ribbon of anomalous 700mb moisture aloft
will wrap around the northern and western flank of the low while
strong vertical velocities aloft and dynamic cooling allow for
heavy snow to ensue over northeast Montana. Latest CAMs show
excellent upward vertical velocities within a highly saturated DGZ
around 600-550mb. The 00Z HREF Snowband Probability Tracker (SPT)
does show a swath of snowfall rates that could hover around 2"/hr,
if not higher in some cases. Residents in these areas can expect
rapidly accumulating snowfall this morning with US Routes 2 and 85
to the north and west of Williston likely to feature treacherous
travel conditions. Slick roads and significantly reduced
visibilities are expected where the heaviest snowfall occurs. By
this afternoon, the storm system will be over eastern North Dakota
and tracking to the northeast. Periods of snow will continue across
western North Dakota before finally concluding Saturday evening.


The probability of significant ice across the CONUS is less than
10 percent.

Mullinax

$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 170812
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
312 AM EST Sun Nov 17 2024

Valid 12Z Sun Nov 17 2024 - 12Z Wed Nov 20 2024

...Western U.S....
Days 1-3...

A developing active pattern is in its early stages as the first in
a series of Pacific storm systems revolves beneath the base of a
longwave trough that will become quasi-stationary in the Gulf of
Alaska to start the period. Then, as a strong ridge builds over the
Aleutians mid-week, the longwave trough will dive south into the
northeast Pacific and direct a steady barrage of rich Pacific
moisture at the region into the second half of the week. Tonight,
the warm front associated with the initial surge in Pacific
moisture is working across the interior Northwest. Meanwhile, a
cold front will push across western WA/OR Sunday morning that will
cause snow levels to plummet to as low as 2,000ft in the WA
Cascades and 2,500ft in the OR Cascades by this afternoon. By
Sunday evening, some locations on the windward side of the Cascades
could see snow levels as low as 1,000ft. It is also worth noting
that there are likely to be some instances of freezing rain today
with low-moderate probabilities for >0.01" of freezing rain in
parts of eastern OR and the northern ID Panhandle.

The falling snow levels will occur well inland across the Northern
Rockies Sunday night and into Monday. NAEFS shows 500-700mb temps
and heights that are below the 10th percentile throughout the
Northwest on Monday. This unusually cold air-mass is in place at
the same time as persistent onshore flow, courtesy of the longwave
trough to the north, strikes mountain ranges such as the Cascades
at an orthogonal angle to maximize the snowfall potential through
Monday. Following a brief lull Monday night, a rapidly
strengthening storm system (both the GFS and ECMWF have the low sub
950mb by Tuesday afternoon!) will direct a stronger atmospheric
river at the Pacific Northwest with not only exceptional moisture
advection (>750 kg/m/s IVT on NAEFS would be above the 97.5
climatological percentile Tuesday afternoon), but intense winds
along the mountainous terrain. Robust warm air-advection late
Tuesday and into Tuesday night will lead to snow levels rising to
above 3,000ft in the WA Cascades and Olympics, around 4,000ft in
the OR Cascades, and 6,000ft in the northern California ranges by
Wednesday morning. The concern would be for the potential for a
heavier/wet snow type to rapidly accumulate, while powerful wind
gusts potential lead to tree damage and power outages Tuesday
night and into Wednesday.

All told, there is no shortage of snow in the forecast for the
Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. Snow is likely to be
measured in feet along not just the Cascades above 3,000ft, but the
Olympics, the Salmon/Shasta/Siskiyou of northern California, and
well inland through the Blue, Sawtooth, Boise, Bitterroot, Tetons,
and Lewis Mountain Ranges. The latest WSSI shows Moderate to Major
Impacts in the Cascades and Bitterroots with impacts including not
just dangerous travel conditions (including notable Cascade
passes), but the weight of the snow and strong winds by Tuesday
night could result in tree damage and power outages in some areas.

...Northern Plains...
Day 3...

Confidence is increasing in a powerful late November cyclone to
track from the Southern Plains on Monday and race north into the
Midwest Monday night. Both NAEFS and ECMWF SATs support a highly
anomalous area of low pressure Monday night, but the ECMWF is
farther west and closer to the Missouri River than the NAEFS, which
is located farther east over central Iowa. By Tuesday morning, the
NAEFS (a GFS/CMC ensemble based tool) shows the storm about to
cross the Mississippi River in southeast MN while the ECMWF is over
southwest MN. The primary reason for this is the ECMWF shows a
slightly slower and stronger 500mb solution than the GFS, albeit
they are not overly different in the storm evolution.

Where they differ is that the ECMWF (RGEM as well) phases sooner
with an upper level disturbance over the northern High Plains and
is pulled farther west than the GFS. By 21Z Tuesday, both the ECMWF
and RGEM show a closed 500mb low near Bismarck, while the GFS is
more elongated and does not close off fully until a few hours later
near the ND/Canada border. These details are critical in
determining where the deformation zone (or heaviest snow bands) set
up; over the Dakotas or more over south-central Canada. For the
moment, WPC PWPF shows moderate-high probabilities (50-70%) for

4" of snowfall over north-central ND. It is worth noting that the

WPC PWPF does show low chances (10-30%) for snowfall >8", and near
the North Dakota/Canada border, a small 10% chance area for >12" of
snowfall. Residents in the Dakotas should monitor the forecast
closely over the next 24-48 hours.

While exact amounts are unclear, the exceptionally strong storm
system over Minnesota coupled with high pressure building in over
the Northern Rockies will make for a very windy setup over the
Northern Plains. Snow is still expected to fall across much of
central and western North Dakota and wind gusts of 30-40 mph would
result in whiteout conditions for areas that, in some cases, would
experience their first round of accumulating snowfall this season.
The Probabilistic WSSI (WSSI-P) shows moderate-high chances
(50-70%) for Minor Impacts across much of central North Dakota with
the highest probabilities focused in north-central North Dakota.
The WSSI-P shows Snow Amount and Blowing Snow to be the primary
impacts in these areas. In summary, while exact amounts remain low
confidence at this range, the combination of some accumulating snow
and hazardous visibility reductions due to blowing snow are still
likely to cause some treacherous travel conditions in these areas
late Tuesday and into Wednesday morning.


The probability of significant ice across the CONUS is less than 10
percent.

Mullinax
$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 220831
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
331 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

Valid 12Z Fri Nov 22 2024 - 12Z Mon Nov 25 2024

...Pacific Coast through the Interior Northwest and Great Basin... Days 1-3...

Persistent closed low centered off the Pacific Northwest coast will
remain energized by vorticity maxima swinging through the
associated trough this period. This will result in amplification of
the gyre, noted by an expansive region of 500-700mb height
anomalies reaching below -1 sigma, and approaching -3 sigma in the
core of the trough. Beneath this trough, deepening surface low
pressure will approach the WA coast today, but likely get pulled
back to the west on Saturday before landfall in response to
secondary shortwave energy digging to its south. This will result
in persistent onshore and divergent mid-level flow, accompanying
upper level jet energy to spread moisture onshore as a continuation
of the ongoing atmospheric river (AR) across northern CA through
early Saturday. While IVT values exceeding 500 kg/m/s wane and
pivot southward by the end of D1, this will still result in
plentiful moisture and widespread moderate to at times heavy
precipitation pushing onshore the Pacific Coast into the interior Northwest.

Snow levels within this AR will be quite high, generally 6000-8000
ft, except east of the WA Cascades on D1 where they will remain
entrenched around 4000 ft before rising. This indicates that most
of the heavy snow will be above pass levels, except in the higher
Cascade Passes D1, and the Sierra Passes D1-D2. WPC probabilities
D1 are high for more than 6 inches of snow in the northern WA
Cascades, the Salmon River Range, and portions of the Northern
Rockies near Glacier NP. On D2, snowfall is more robust and
expansive, with a greater than 90% chance of 6 inches again in the
Northern Rockies and Salmon River/Sawtooth Ranges. More
impressively, the Sierra will be favorably located to be impinged
upon by moisture by the end of D1, leading to pronounced upslope
snow. WPC probabilities are above 80% for 12+ inches through
Saturday, with 2 feet possible above 8000 ft.

By D2 onward, snow levels crash again as a cold front pushes
onshore, but this is accompanied by reduced moisture advection as
the column begins to dry out. Some moderate snow will persist
through onshore flow, especially in the Sierra where an additional
6-12 inches is possible, but otherwise WPC probabilities for more
than 6 inches are between 30-50% and focused across the Wasatch,
Uintas, and ranges of NW WY.

...Appalachians and Northeast... Days 1-2...

Impressive upper low over the Northeast will feature a complex
evolution through the weekend resulting in a couple surface lows and
varying areas of heavy snow.

The Central Appalachians, especially from the Laurel Highlands
southward across WV and as far south as the Great Smokey Mtns of
TN/NC, will benefit from prolonged upslope flow on the western
periphery of the upper low resulting in waves of heavy snowfall
through Saturday. WPC's snowband probability tracker depicts an
extended period of 1-2"/hr snowfall rates during the D1 period
across the Allegheny Mtns. WPC probabilities in this area are high

70%) on D1 for more than 8 inches of snow. Event total snowfall

could peak around 2 feet in central WV.

The ongoing potent and compact surface low churning near Long
Island is forecast to loop westward and eventually toward the south
today over eastern PA as it remains embedded within the large
500mb gyre overhead. As this occurs, an impressive plume of low-
level moisture will continue to wrap northwest into the system,
driving rich theta-e advection into a TROWAL to support some
elevated instability and enhance available moisture for heavy
precipitation early on D1. Increasing deformation is noted on
current radar trends on the W/SW side of the system as it becomes
exceptionally wrapped. This setup will support intense mesoscale
ascent and bands of heavy precipitation rotating W/SW as the low
retrogrades. Although the column will be marginally supportive of
accumulating snow outside of higher elevations (above about 1500
ft), the intense lift should dynamically cool the column and allow
efficient snowfall accumulation at times even in lower terrain.
SLRs for this event will likely be below climo due to near freezing
temps and warm soils/compaction, but still, rates of 1-2"/hr will
promote heavy accumulations, especially in the Poconos and
Catskills and surrounding areas early this morning. Most of the
ongoing snowfall is expected to occur before or right around the
start of the D1 period (12z Fri), so WPC probabilities don't
reflect the ongoing event. Nonetheless, the greatest snowfall
amounts are expected in northeast PA and neighboring areas of New
York and northern NJ, with 2-day snowfall potentially reaching
above 12" in a few highly elevated spots. This will likely result
in dangerous travel and impacts to infrastructure including
scattered power outages.

In the lower elevations of the Mid-Atlantic, some snow bands could
pivot as far SE as the I-95 corridor, so while accumulations in
the major urban areas from Washington, D.C. to New York City are
expected to be minimal, if any, these cities could see their first
"falling" snow of the season Friday morning/aftn.

Along the Adirondacks, Green, and White Mountains, the
upper low will draw moist easterly flow northward and into these
ranges Friday night through Saturday while another surface low
develops east of Maine and pivots northwest. Snow levels should be
high enough that only the highest terrain will receive significant
snow, but WPC probabilities have increased and now feature a 30-50%
chance on D2 of more than 4 inches, primarily in the White
Mountains of NH and the peaks of northern ME.

...Northern Rockies through the Northern Plains... Days 1-2...

A shortwave ejecting through the base of an anomalous trough off
the Pacific Coast will swing eastward into the Northwest Saturday
and then begin to amplify into a potent but fast moving impulse
across the Northern Rockies and into the Northern Plains Sunday.
This deepening system will drive downstream ascent through height
falls, PVA, and divergence. At the same time, a zonally oriented
jet streak will pivot south of the region, placing its favorable
LFQ atop the far northern High Plains, interacting with increasing baroclinicity as a front wavers near the international border. The
overlap of synoptic lift with the enhanced mesoscale ascent
through fgen will result in weak cyclogenesis, leading to an
expanding area of precipitation falling as snow. The column will be
plenty cold for wintry precipitation thanks to high pressure from
Canada extending southward, and as the WAA along the warm front
lifts north, it will result in an exceptionally deep DGZ to support
fluffy aggregate dendrites which should accumulate efficiently. The
biggest question remains whether or not this favorable environment
and most impactful snowfall will span south over the U.S.-Canada border.

The heaviest snowfall is likely in the terrain near the Northern
Rockies where upslope flow will enhance ascent, and WPC
probabilities support a high risk (>70%) for at least 8 inches near
Glacier NP on D2. However, heavy snowfall is also possible farther
east across northern MT along the international border D1-D2 where
the most robust synoptic ascent will materialize. A leading surge
of modest upper diffluence and WAA may lead to a burst of snow
today across northwest and northern MT. WPC probabilities for at
least 2" on D1 are high throughout northern MT. For the main
activity related to the approaching shortwave on D2, the guidance
has continued to trend a bit farther north from central MT eastward
to ND, with current WPC probabilities suggest around a 30% chance
for more than 4 inches right along the international border as far
east as north- central MT on D2, with higher probabilities for
heavy snowfall located in southern Alberta and Saskatchewan.

The probability of significant ice across the CONUS is less than
10 percent.

Snell

...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please see current
Key Messages below...

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/LatestKeyMessage_1.png

$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 230755
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
255 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

Valid 12Z Sat Nov 23 2024 - 12Z Tue Nov 26 2024

...Pacific Coast through the Intermountain West and Rockies... Days 1-3...

Strong upper low off the Pacific Northwest finally begins to
unravel while ejecting shortwaves inland across the West, with
persistent onshore flow and lowering snow levels leading to
widespread heavy mountain snowfall.

The first shortwave ejecting through the base of an anomalous
trough off the Pacific Coast will swing eastward into the Northwest
Saturday and then begin to amplify into a potent but fast-moving
impulse across the Northern Rockies and into the Northern Plains
Sunday. This deepening system will drive downstream ascent through
height falls, PVA, and divergence. At the same time, a zonally-
oriented jet streak will pivot south of the region, placing its
favorable LFQ atop the far northern High Plains and southern Canada, interacting with increasing baroclinicity as a front wavers near
the international border. The overlap of synoptic lift with the
enhanced mesoscale ascent through fgen will result in weak
cyclogenesis, leading to an expanding area of precipitation falling
as snow. The column will be plenty cold for wintry precipitation
thanks to high pressure from Canada extending southward. As the WAA
along the warm front lifts north, an exceptionally deep DGZ will
support fluffy aggregate dendrites which should accumulate
efficiently, but the most favorable environment and most impactful
snowfall will likely be just north of the U.S.-Canada border. The
greatest impacts over the U.S. from this system appear to occur
over the northern Rockies on D1, where upslope flow will enhance
ascent. WPC probabilities for at least 8 inches of snow are high
(<70%) across northwest MT and Glacier NP, as well as the Salmon
River and Clearwater Mts of Idaho.

The Pacific mountain ranges spanning from the Cascades to the
Sierra Nevada will see a few separate shortwaves move inland
before the parent upper low finally pushes eastward on D3. The
ongoing AR over central CA will come to an end by the start of D1
and allow for snow levels to fall back to around 4000-5000 ft
across the Sierra and lower (2500-3000 feet) across the Cascades.
However, IVT values will also become very weak along the West Coast
until a resurgence across the Sierra on D3 in response to the
parent upper lows eastward movement. A few locally enhanced axes
of moisture are also possible across the Pac NW D2-D3 due to the
lingering low off the coast. This results in high probabilities

70%) for at least a foot of total snowfall over the next three

days across the Sierra Nevada, Shasta Siskiyous of northern
California, Oregon Cascades, and Olympic Mts. Areas above 5000 feet
can expect the potential for up to two feet of snow.

Leftover moisture spilling across the Intermountain West and
central Rockies could combine with favorable west-east upslope
enhancement over the Wasatch Mts of Utah and Colorado ranges on D2.
WPC probabilities for at least 8 inches of snow are low (10-30%).

...Northern New England... Days 1-2...

Stacked/wrapped upper and sfc low over the Northeast will complete its counterclockwise loop this morning before a separate sfc low
develops and lifts north through Atlantic Canada along with the
larger upper low this weekend. Upslope snow into the central
Appalachians will persist through this evening via NW flow as
moisture has circulated from the Atlantic up and around
southeastern Canada back across the lower Great Lakes. A few
additional inches of snow are possible in elevations above 3000 ft
in West Virginia, with marginal surface temperatures limiting the
potential for heavier amounts.

Into New England, trailing vorticity lobe will aid this new coastal
sfc low east of Cape Cod that will track northward into Nova
Scotia by tonight, favoring increased northerly/cooler flow over
interior portions of Maine southwestward into VT. The column is
fairly mild to start over New England via SE flow ahead of the
initial front, but that will change on D1 with rain changing to
snow as the low approaches and deepens. QPF will be focused closer
to the coast, but light amounts of snow are likely for the interior
and especially the higher terrain above 2500ft or so (White
Mountains and northern ME) where WPC probabilities of at least 4
inches are >40%.

Additionally, lake effect snow showers are possible downwind of
Lake Ontario D1-D2 due to this persistent west-northwest flow
around the large low pressure system to the east. Warm boundary
layer temperatures will limit snowfall accumulations as upper
ridging quickly builds from the west. In, fact most showers may
simply fall as rain outside the higher elevations of Upstate New
York or within some of the locally heavier bands where dynamic
cooling can lower surface temperatures to near freezing.

...Upper Great Lakes... Day 3...

The fast-moving shortwave exiting the northern Plains on Sunday is
forecast to reach the Upper Great Lakes on Monday while also
taking on a negative tilt in response to a piece of upper energy
quickly rounding the southern end of the trough over the Midwest.
Surface low is expected to then deepen over the Great Lakes by the
end of D3 with upper diffluence and lake enhancement off Lake
Superior supporting periods of light to moderate snow over the
U.P. of Michigan. WPC probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow
are low (10-30%) for most of this region on D3, with medium
chances (40-60%) over the Porcupine Mts.

Snell
$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 240835
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
335 AM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

Valid 12Z Sun Nov 24 2024 - 12Z Wed Nov 27 2024

...Northern New England...
Days 1-2...

Upper low moving over Atlantic Canada is expected to stall today
and absorb approaching upper shortwave diving southeastward over
Ontario. These features combined with strong northwest flow will
support upslope snow over the higher terrain of far northern New
England (mainly the White Mts through northern Maine). WPC
probabilities of an additional 4 inches of additional snow are
medium (40-70%) over these areas. Light snow is also favored over
eastern NY (Adirondacks into the Catskills) but amounts should be
under 4 inches.

...Upper Great Lakes...
Days 1-3

Tonight, energy from two separate disturbances, one an upper level
low over the Canadian prairies, and the other an ejecting
shortwave out of central Great Basin, will merge over a strong
surface cold front diving southward over the central Plains. An
area of low pressure will then form and progress northeastward from
the Midwest to the Great Lakes on D2. The combination of upper
level energy and upper diffluence beneath the favorable left- exit
region of a quick moving 250 mb 105 kt jet streak will aid in a
blossoming precipitation shield from northern MN to northern WI and
the U.P. of Michigan into Monday morning. As the low tracks
northeast across the L.P., much colder air wrapping around the back
side of the low will allow for additional widespread lake-effect
snow and snow showers persisting into D3 for much of the U.P. WPC
probabilities for at least 4" of snow are medium (30-60%) across
the Arrowhead of MN, far northern WI, and the U.P. of Michigan.

As this low and precipitation moves eastward over the Northeast
and New England on D3, light freezing rain is possible over
interior New England as low- level cold air remains locked in
place as mid- level temperatures rapidly warm above freezing along
with the precipitation shield. Surface temperatures should also
eventually rise above freezing given the strong low forecast to
track north of the region into southern Quebec. Only the northern
White Mts and far northern Maine could see temperatures remain
around the freezing mark and the entire column potentially
remaining cold enough for light snow.

...Sierra, Wasatch, CO Rockies...
Days 1-3...

Ejecting upper shortwave and surface cold front crossing the
Intermountain West and central Rockies today will include residual
moisture from the atmospheric river impacting northern California
over the last few days and will have the potential to produce a
burst of snow over the region. Snow levels starting around
5000-6000ft will fall below 4500-5000ft by the end of D1 and
behind the cold front, but also as the column gradually dries out.
WPC probabilities for at least 6 inches of snow are mostly low
(10-30%) for the Wasatch Mts and CO Rockies, with higher chances
above 9000ft.

Troughing off the West Coast will continue during the short range
period, with a rather steady stream of moisture into the region.
Generally lighter snow is forecast for D1 above 4000ft or so
over northern CA and the Cascades WPC probabilities for at least 6
inches of snow are medium (40-70%) for these ranges and high

70%) above 6000ft. By D2, the next heavy snow event enters the

West as another surge of moisture will aim toward the Sierra with
PW and IVT values climbing above the 95th percentile per the NAEFS
ESAT. With a favorable WSW flow into the central/southern Sierra,
moderate to very heavy snow is likely for areas south of Lake Tahoe
into D3 as PW/IVT anomalies peak above the 99th percentile. Snow
levels will rise well above 7000ft to 9000ft (north to south) but
those high elevations may see several feet of snow over the two-day
period. WPC probabilities for at least 24 inches of snow are
highest above 8000ft with the highest peaks possibly receiving
closer to four feet.

Farther east, 120-140kt upper jet will stream across the Great
Basin with the axis of moisture focused across southern NV/UT. This
will set up favorable westerly flow into the Wasatch and then the
CO Rockies with moderate-to-heavy snow accumulations on D3 as snow
levels increase (7500-9000ft). The extended duration of elevated
moisture and favorable westerly flow could lead to higher
elevations receiving multiple feet of snowfall by the end of the
event on Thursday. Currently, WPC probabilities for at least 12
inches are >50% above 9000ft in the CO Rockies and Wasatch MTs
through Wednesday morning.


Snell
$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 250743
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
243 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2024

Valid 12Z Mon Nov 25 2024 - 12Z Thu Nov 28 2024

...Upper Great Lakes to New England...
Days 1-2...

Negatively tilted trough over the Upper Midwest along with a closed
low churning over south-central Canada will slide east today and
work to provide ample lift over the Upper Great Lakes during the D1
period. Additionally, broad upper diffluence within the left exit
region of a zonally oriented upper jet into the central Plains will
help create the widespread precipitation shield from northern MN
and WI into the U.P. of MI. Meanwhile, a sure low is expected to
deepen as it crosses the Great Lakes and enters southern Ontario on
Tuesday morning with the added forcing to the north of the low. Periods
of heavy snow with rates up to around 1"/hr are possible associated
from this low pressure system between northern WI to the U.P. from
late this afternoon through the evening hours per the 00z HREF
SPT. Lake -enhanced snowbands are also likely as cold west-
northwest flow follows in the wake of the low before precipitation
turns strictly lake-effect on D2. WPC probabilities are high (>70%)
across the U.P. of Michigan and medium (40-60%) across the MN
Arrowhead.

Into New England, which will be dealing with WAA and the passage of
an occluded front as the low moves into Canada Tuesday, will see some
of the colder valleys remain below freezing for a period of time
and allow for light icing. This is most likely to occur near the
White MTs of northern New England, including parts of VT, NH, and
ME. PWPF for ice >0.10 inches are about 20-40%.


...Pacific Northwest...
Day 1...

Upper low off the coast will finally move inland over SW OR and
weaken on Tuesday, with onshore flow ahead of it for D1 over the
Cascades where several inches of snow are likely. Snow levels are
around 3000-4000ft from north to south (WA to OR) and will fall by
D2 but as QPF wanes and finally moves away from the area. WPC
probabilities are most notable across the Cascades and Blue Mts in
OR, as well as the northern CA ranges.


...Sierra Nevada...
Days 1-2...

Persistent WSW flow will continue for the next few days as waves
of anomalous moisture flow across the central and especially
southern Sierra, bringing significant heavy, wet snow to higher
elevations. Precipitation is beginning to move onshore this morning
and quickly become heavier today before peaking early Tuesday as
PW/IVT approach record levels for this time of year per the NAEFS
ESAT and CFSR period. 700mb 0C line will lie W-E from central CA
eastward to near UT/AZ border, suggesting high snow levels and
generally a heavy/wet snow for many areas (and likely lower SLR
values). NBM shows snow levels around 7500ft (north) to perhaps
10,000ft (south) coinciding with the heaviest QPF. With >2-3"
liquid, even at <10:1 ratios, multiple feet of snow are likely in
the highest elevations along with snowfall rates up to 2-3"/hr.
Snow levels will drop as QPF starts to decrease towards the end of
D2 once the shortwave to the north moves out of the Great Basin.
For the two- day period, WPC probabilities for at least 18 inches
of snow are high (>70%) above ~8000ft.


...Wasatch, CO Rockies...
Days 1-3...

Several rounds of forcing in the upper levels and a potent 140 kt
upper jet initially over UT and CO will impact the region through
Wednesday and produce widespread heavy mountain snowfall. This
strong upper flow will also take advantage of ample amounts of
atmospheric moisture advecting into CA from continued onshore flow
from the Pacific. IVT values are expected to reach all-time highs
from southern UT/northern AZ to the Four Corners per NAEFS
climatological percentiles. Once the zonal jet shifts eastward, a
strong shortwave trough will approach the area on Wednesday,
resulting in much heavier snow across the Wasatch and CO Rockies.
Snow may also bleed over into the CO Front Range as the core of the
upper jet sinks south, as well as better upslope components on the
east-facing slopes of the Sangre de Cristo and Sawatch range. Snow
levels are expected to start out at the beginning of D2 in the
6000ft-8000ft range (higher south) and rise slightly on D2 before
falling rapidly below 5000 ft on Day, but while precipitation also
weakens. In total, multiple days of very favorable forcing and
continued moisture advection from the Pacific will result in a
broad 2 to 3 feet of snow over many of the higher elevations of UT
and CO. WPC probabilities are high (>70%) for at least 24 inches of
snow during the three day period for elevations in UT and CO above
10,000ft, with low probabilities (10-30%) of 4 inches of snow
across the CO Front Range on D3.

The probability of significant ice >0.25 inches across the CONUS
is less than 10 percent.

Snell


$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 030859
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

Valid 12Z Tue Dec 03 2024 - 12Z Fri Dec 06 2024

...Michigan...
Days 1-3...

LES from NNWly flow continues through mid-morning over the eastern
U.P. and down the western shore of the L.P. Localized additional
amounts of 4" are possible between 12Z and 18Z in far SW MI given
the orientation of the flow into that area as well as the current
radar coverage for the strong banding shifting down Lake Michigan.

Surface ridging ahead of the next wave spreads over MI today
shifting flow to the SW and bringing a reprieve to snow this
afternoon to the state. However, the SWly flow quickly saturates
and warm air advection snow begins over the U.P. this evening as
the moisture plume from the next low shifts in. Lake Michigan
enhancement to this snow will really kick in overnight with
heavy/repeating snow north from Grand Traverse Bay and over the
southern shore of the eastern U.P. which continues into Wednesday
morning. Day 1.5 probabilities for >12" snow are around 60% north
of Petoskey and across the Mackinac Straits.

A strong cold front from the low tracking north of the Great Lakes
sweeps across MI Wednesday afternoon with a quick return to LES
banding. Potent cold air advection over the Lakes brings heavy
bands to NW flow prone snow belts into Thursday. Particularly
strong winds can be expected given the pressure gradient between
the 990mb low and the 1037mb high over the Dakotas, so impacts will
be enhanced by the wind. Day 2 PWPF for >6" is 50-80% over the U.P.
north shore and the NW sector of the L.P. with potential prolonged
banding southeast from Grand Traverse Bay with a Superior and Lake
Michigan fetch contributing given the NW flow turning NNWly. LES
slowly decays and the wind gradiently quickly drops off on
Thursday.


Eastern Great Lakes and Northeast...
Day 1...

NWly flow will continue to produce heavy LES over the Chautauqua
Ridge from fetch over Lake Huron and then over Lake Erie through
much of today before it diminishes/pivots east as flow shifts SWly
behind a ridge axis that moves through. An additional 3-6" can be
expected today over the Chautauqua Ridge area. This afternoon the
SWly flow will bring snow, possibly banded, to around Buffalo and
the easten shore of Lake Ontario that persists into the overnight;
Day 1 PWPF for >4" are 20-40%.


Days 2/3...

SWly flow ahead of a developing clipper-type low tracking north of
the Great Lakes saturates over the interior Northeast, increasing
coverage and intensity of snow on Wednesday that continues to
expand and shift north over New England through the overnight. The
Mohawk Valley/southern Adirondacks are favored for heavier snow
Wednesday afternoon where the combination of topographic lift and
antecedant cold air overlap. Higher terrain of the Greens and
Whites get snow in this time, but the greater coverage is expected
over central Maine, generally inland from Bangor Wednesday night.
Day 2 PWPF for >6" is 50-80% over the Mohawk Valley as well as in
central Maine. The WAA based precip spreads across the rest of
Maine Thursday morning with a rain/snow line developing interior
from the Maine coast with a quick transition to heavy snow
on the cold side.

The strong cold front crossing Michigan on Wednesday crosses the
eastern Great Lakes late Wednesday night with a quick onset back to
heavy snow again on NWly flow off eastern Erie starting before
sunrise Thursday with aided fetch from Lake Huron. A decent banding
situation arrises from Lake Ontario over the Tug Hill down the
Mohawk Valley, possibly overlapping well with the snow from
Wednesday.Day 2.5 PWPF for >8" is unfortunately 60-90% from Erie Co
PA to the South Towns of Buffalo. These bands may extend decently
far inland given the rather strong winds from the 990mb low moving
into southern Quebec and the 1035mb high over South Dakota Thursday
morning.

The low quickly exits to the Canadian Maritimes Thursday with
guidance wanting to end most of the heavier banding Thursday night.
Guidance is usually too quick to cut off LES banding, but at least
in this case the surface high tracking over the Ohio Valley on
Friday should cause disruption to the bands. Day 3 PWPF for >8" is
90% over Erie Co PA and around 30% over northern Maine where the
surface low tracks and for upslope flow over the northern Greens
and Adirondacks.

The probability of significant ice across the CONUS is less than
10 percent.

Jackson
$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 060718
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
218 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2024

Valid 12Z Fri Dec 06 2024 - 12Z Mon Dec 09 2024

...Great Lakes and Northeast...
Days 1-2...

Departing area of low pressure over Atlantic Canada and modest
high pressure over the Mid-MS Valley will maintain cyclonic flow
across the Great Lakes, especially off Lakes Erie/Ontario, for the
next day or two. A shortwave within the broad trough over the
region will help back the flow enough to instigate another strong
single band off Ontario into the Tug Hill between Watertown and
Syracuse this afternoon/evening and overnight. Robust snowfall
rates of 1-3"/hr (per the HREF) will help deposit another 12-18"+
of snow over favored areas before waning on Saturday. Downwind of
Lake Erie, multi-band streamers will result in a larger area of
light to moderate snow with WPC probabilities of at least another
6" of snow >50% from Erie, PA northeastward to the Chautauqua Ridge
in NY.

Another shortwave rounding the base of the longwave trough will
slip through the Great Lakes late Sat into early Sun with generally
light snow for the U.P., northern Lower MI, into NYS and northern
New England. WPC probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow are
generally low (10-40%) except for areas with lake enhancement and
parts of the Adirondacks, Green, and White Mountains where
probabilities are moderate (40-70%).


...Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies...
Days 2-3...

An upper low currently south of the Gulf of Alaska will move
eastward over the next day or so, aimed toward British Columbia.
Ahead of it, a plume of moisture will be directed into the Pacific
Northwest starting early Saturday. Snow levels will start quite
high (around 8000-9000ft at precip onset very early Saturday) but
fall to around pass level (~4000ft) late Saturday into the
overnight hours. East of the crest, cold air in place at the
surface with overrunning WAA-driven precip supports a wintry mix of snow/sleet/freezing rain for eastern WA. Some icing is possible,
from a few hundredths to around a tenth of an inch.

A second surge in moisture will occur on Sunday associated with
the parent upper low as it opens up across the region. With snow
levels already around pass level, snow should accumulate on Sunday
with WPC probabilities for at least 6 inches of snow >50% above
about 3500ft or so.

Farther east, moisture will spread across northeastern OR and into
the northern Rockies from late Saturday through the end of the
period early Monday. Snow levels will lower through time, and
nearly all areas except the lowest valleys will change from rain to
snow. WPC probabilities for at least 8 inches of snow days 2-3 are

50% above about 5000ft or so, mostly in the Lewis Range and

across northern ID, the Blue Mountains, and into northwestern WY.


...Northern Minnesota and northeastern North Dakota...
Day 3...

Eastern extension of the northern Rockies system will manifest
itself as another upper low forming by Sunday over southern
Saskatchewan. That will move east-southeastward into early Monday
with WAA-driven precipitation to its east from northeastern ND
eastward across northern MN. Ptype will be an issue with milder air
overtopping the colder boundary layer, especially where precip
arrives near/after sunset Sunday. NBM ptype uncertainty maximizes
between all 4 types in a zone along the U.S.-Canadian border though
the majority of probabilities are either rain or snow. Still,
cannot rule out some light icing but will have time to narrow the
forecast with time. WPC probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow
are moderate (40-70%) over northern MN.


The probability of significant ice >0.25" across the CONUS is less
than 10 percent.

Fracasso


$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 070727
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
227 AM EST Sat Dec 7 2024

Valid 12Z Sat Dec 07 2024 - 12Z Tue Dec 10 2024

...Great Lakes and Northeast...
Day 1...

Shortwave on the southwest side of the expansive eastern North
American trough will zip quickly across the Great Lakes and
into/through the Northeast later today. With a surface low track
through southern Ontario, WAA-driven snow will spread across the
Northeast and end early Sunday. With a general westerly wind
component, upslope into N-S terrain (e.g., the Green and White
Mountains) will promote moderate amounts of snow with lighter
amounts in lower elevations. Some additional lake enhancement is
also likely off Lake Ontario into the Tug Hill. Quick movement of
the system should limit amounts, and WPC probabilities for at least
4 inches of snow are highest (>50%) north of I-90 in NY (Tug
Hill/Adirondacks) and into the Green and White Mountains. By later
Saturday night into early Sunday, as the system departs, could see
some late enhancement over eastern Maine where WPC probs for 4
inches are also near 50%.


...Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies...
Days 1-3...

An upper low in the northeast Pacific heading into British
Columbia will direct two shortwave troughs into the Pacific
Northwest this weekend. Snow levels will initially start out
between 8,000-9,000ft this morning, but plummet to as low as
3,000ft by early Sunday morning. Rain at most locations will change
to snow at Stevens/Snoqualmie Passes as the first wave of
precipitation wanes. East of the Cascades, lingering sub-freezing
temperatures within the boundary layer will be trapped in the
Columbia Basin as WAA and overrunning moisture aloft provide a
favorable setup for an icy wintry mix in central and northeastern
Washington today and even into parts of southeastern
OR/southwestern ID tonight. Some minor icing accumulations are
possible up to about a tenth of an inch.

The second shortwave trough makes its way through the Pacific
Northwest tonight and into Sunday. Lower snow levels support
moderate snow at pass level (esp Stevens) with this second wave of
moisture. WPC probabilities for at least 8 inches of snow are
highest above about 3500ft.

These atmospheric disturbances will push their respective plumes
of moisture east into the Northern Rockies as well, with the
heaviest snow tonight and into Sunday as snow levels decrease, SLRs
increase, and northerly low level winds aid in upslope enhancement
for snowfall rates. Highest probabilities for >6" snow are over
the terrain including the Bitterroots, Lewis Range, Blue Mountains,
and into the Little Belt Mountains in central Montana, the
Absarokas in southern Montana, and the Tetons of western Wyoming.


...Northern Minnesota and northeastern North Dakota...
Days 2-3...

The first upper level shortwave trough that brought snow to parts
of the Pacific Northwest mountain ranges will spawn low pressure
over the Canadian Prairies Sunday morning. As its warm front moves
east, WAA across the Northern Plains will result in a shield of
precipitation that passes over a sub-freezing boundary layer. While precipitation may start out as snow along the Canadian border,
mid/low-level WAA may promote an area of freezing rain for portions
of eastern ND into MN late tonight into early Sunday. Depending on
the evolution of the main low along the Canadian border and other
frontal waviness over the Corn Belt moving up toward the MN
Arrowhead, snow could be maximized over northeastern MN from north
of Duluth to the border. WPC probabilities for at least 4 inches of
snow are >50% from around the Northwest Angle southeastward to
Embarrass and points northeast.


...CO Rockies/Sangre de Cristos...
Day 3...

Height falls associated with the second wave through the Pacific
Northwest will push through the central Rockies, spreading light
snow across the region on Monday into early Tuesday. Quick movement
and general lack of moisture will limit snowfall, with WPC
probabilities of at least 4 inches >30% limited to the Sangre de
Cristos in CO and just into NM.


The probability of significant ice >0.25" across the CONUS is less
than 10 percent.

Fracasso/Mullinax
$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 080812
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
312 AM EST Sun Dec 8 2024

Valid 12Z Sun Dec 08 2024 - 12Z Wed Dec 11 2024

...Northeast...
Day 1...

Quick-moving system crossing from Ontario into Quebec before 12Z
will continue eastward across northern Maine this morning and early
afternoon before moving into Atlantic Canada. Light snow is
forecast after 12Z this morning for the Adirondacks and northern
New England, with a bit higher amounts over eastern Maine where
snow will eventually taper off later this afternoon. WPC
probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow today after 12Z are
20-40% over far eastern Maine.

Day 2...

The next winter storm to affect the region comes from a
combination of a shortwave over the Ohio Valley and a northern
stream upper low over southern Canada, both acting in concert to
coax a moisture plume northward from the Gulf of Mexico on WAA. A
mix of some freezing rain on the southern side (northeast PA
northward through NYS and also over parts of western New England)
and snow on the northern side (north of I-90) may cause some minor
impacts on Monday. WPC probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow
are not higher than 10 percent, but are moderate (40-70%) for at
least 2 inches over northern NH into western ME.

Day 3... Yet another system will start to affect the Northeast as
the pattern becomes more amplified in the East. Through 12Z Thu,
strong WAA should scour out most of the cold air over the region,
but interior Maine may see some light icing very early Wednesday
with much more precipitation into D4.


...Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies...
Days 1-2...

Second part of the two-part system will affect the NW today,
pushing moisture into a much colder environment. Moderate to heavy
snow at the higher passes may continue to cause moderate impacts
this morning before the snow starts to taper off from west to east
this afternoon. WPC probabilities depict high chances (>70%) for at
least 8 inches of snow above about 3,500ft while the more remote
areas above 5,000ft likely receive an additional 12"+ of snowfall.

Moisture will continue east of the Cascades across to the Rockies
as the cold front has moved well past the Divide. WPC probabilities
for >8" of snow are over the higher terrain including the
Bitterroots, Lewis Range, Blue Mountains, and into the Little Belt
Mountains in central Montana, the Absarokas in southern Montana,
and the Tetons of western Wyoming. Snow will continue into D2
farther east over the Black Hills where probabilities of at least 4
inches reach 60-90%.


...Northern Minnesota and northeastern North Dakota...
Day 1...

Low pressure over southern Saskatchewan this morning will move ESE
toward northern ND/MN this evening and overnight, lifting its warm
front through the region. While precipitation may start out as
snow along the Canadian border, mid/low-level WAA may promote an
area of freezing rain for portions of eastern North Dakota into
Minnesota this morning, with several hundredths of an inch of ice
possible after 12Z. Closer to the Canadian border, a colder column
supports light to modest snowfall, with the heaviest snow occurring
with the initial WAA over northern Minnesota (esp the Arrowhead,
which will be enhanced by easterly flow off Lake Superior). WPC
probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow are >50% across much of
the northern part of MN, with higher probabilities over the
Arrowhead (>80%). There, probabilities for at least 8 inches of
snow are moderate (40-70%).


...CO Rockies/Sangre de Cristos...
Day 2...

Height falls at the southwest side of a large positively-tilted
longwave trough over the middle of North America will swing through
the central Rockies on Monday, brining with it a plume of residual
Pacific moisture. High pressure building in from the north in the
wake of a cold frontal passage Monday morning will result in some
weak upslope flow into Colorado's Front Range during the day. This
upslope component will extend as far south as the Sangre de Cristos
in northern New Mexico by Monday night. Periods of light-to-
moderate snow across the region are expected as the system moves
quickly through the region and heights build in by Tuesday. WPC
probabilities show >50% probabilities for at least 4 inches mainly
limited to the Sangre de Cristos in southern Colorado and northern
New Mexico, which does include the Raton Mesa. The highest and more
remote elevations could see localized amounts approach 8" by the
time the snow comes to an end Tuesday morning.

The probability of significant ice >0.25" across the CONUS is less
than 10 percent.

Fracasso/Mullinax


$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 090741
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
241 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2024

Valid 12Z Mon Dec 09 2024 - 12Z Thu Dec 12 2024

...CO Rockies/Sangre de Cristos...
Day 1...

Height falls moving out of the Great Basin this morning will
continue southeastward behind a cold front that has pushed into the
central Rockies. High pressure over the northern Rockies and
nosing down the High Plains will promote some modest upslope flow
into Colorado's Front Range during the day today. This upslope
component will extend as far south as the Sangre de Cristos in
northern New Mexico by tonight. Periods of snow across the region
are expected as the system moves quickly through the region and
heights build in by Tuesday. WPC probabilities are high (>70%) for
at least 4 inches of snow around the Palmer Divide southward to
Raton Pass. The highest and more remote elevations could see
localized amounts around 8-10" by the time the snow comes to an end
Tuesday morning. Lighter amounts are expected through the I-25
corridor but could be heavier around Raton Pass.

...Northeast...
Days 1-2...

Shortwave moving through the Ohio Valley this morning will help
bring in another surge of moisture coincident with an advancing
warm front. Sub-freezing air mass largely resides north of I-90,
along with some higher elevations through the Catskills, this
morning. As the warm front approaches I-80 this afternoon, an area
of low pressure will form over southeastern New England, helping to
maintain some northerly flow over northern New England. However,
with broad SW to S flow between 850-700mb, warm nose will help
support areas of freezing rain over eastern NYS into New England
today, then into Maine D2. Around a tenth of an inch of icing is
expected D1-2, but WPC probabilities for at least 0.25" are 10-20%
over western Maine (into the Kennebec Valley). Snowfall may be
limited with time due to the marginal thermal profile and lack of
cold enough temperatures in the production zone for dendrites as
the warm front attempts to push through. A few inches will be
possible toward precip onset, focusing over the Green/White
Mountains into Maine where WPC probabilities for at least 4 inches
are 40-80%.


Day 3...

By D3 (Wed-early Thu), upper pattern becomes much more amplified
upstream as a vigorous system lifts northeastward out of the
Southeast. Digging upper low into MN will raise heights over the
East Coast with milder temperatures above freezing ahead of the
front. On the backside of the front, colder air will filter in atop
a lagging precip shield, supporting a rain-to-snow transition
initially over the eastern TN Valley and central/southern
Appalachians first (Wed afternoon), then eventually into NYS Wed
evening and overnight into early Thu. WPC probabilities for at
least 4 inches of snow through 12Z Thu are low to moderate
(10-40/40-70%) over the central Appalachians (eastern WV) and into
parts of central NYS into the Adirondacks which will be quicker to
change over from rain to snow. Additionally, as the low deepens
quite smartly into Canada, cyclonic flow will wrap across Lakes
Erie/Ontario as 850mb temps crash to -10 to -15C on westerly flow.
This will support single banded lake snows by early Thursday,
continuing beyond this forecast period.


...Upper Great Lakes...
Days 2-3...

Upstream anticyclonic wave breaking over northwestern Canada will
support a digging and deep upper low moving into the Great Lakes on
Wednesday. An arctic front will switch winds to northwesterly as
much colder air is dragged into the region (850mb temps -15 to -25C)
which will kick-start the lake-effect snow (LES) machine into
high gear toward the end of D3 and continuing beyond this forecast
period. WPC probabilities of at least 4 inches of snow are high

70%) over much of the northern shore of the Michigan U.P. and

along the western coast of Michigan's Mitten. For at least 8
inches of snow, the highest probabilities lie over northwestern
Lower Michigan. Snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr are likely in more intense bands.


Fracasso


$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 100759
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
259 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2024

Valid 12Z Tue Dec 10 2024 - 12Z Fri Dec 13 2024

...Northeast... Day 1...

Broad SW flow in the mid-levels to the south/southeast of a
shortwave nearing James Bay will override a nose of high pressure
from Atlantic Canada, maintaining sub-freezing low-levels across
much of central/northern New England this morning. Wavy frontal
boundary will try to lift northward into the colder air, but will
be slow to succeed until tomorrow (Wed). As precipitation moves
into the region overnight tonight into Wednesday morning, freezing
rain will be likely over much of central/northern New England,
especially in areas with a little elevation. On Wednesday, southerly/southeasterly flow will eventually win out at the low
levels, turning all areas over to plain rain. Ice accumulations of
a tenth or two of an inch are likely over parts of the Green and
White Mountains and into western Maine where the cold air may hold
on the longest. WPC probabilities for at least a tenth of an inch
of ice are >50%. Though the probabilities of at least 0.25" are
low, this may be underdone as the models are sometimes too quick to
have the cold air retreat.


...Central Appalachians... Day 2...

The southern part of the system affecting the Northeast tonight
into Wednesday will be the evolution of an increasingly negatively-
tilted and deep upper trough over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS.
Frontal boundary will clear past the Appalachians tonight, allowing
colder air to push in behind it and change rain to snow over the
Cumberland Plateau and points eastward. Upslope enhancement into
the central Appalachians will promote more modest snow totals, and
WPC probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow are >30% over
eastern WV northward through the western MD Panhandle (Garrett Co)
into the Laurel Highlands in PA.


...Northern Plains... Day 1...

The leading edge of the encroaching Arctic air-mass will track
into the Northern Plains today. Surface-based warming out in front
of the Arctic front and strong CAA aloft will allow for lapse rates
in the 500-700mb layer to be >7.5C/km in some cases, with just
enough low-level moisture for some snow squalls to develop. These
squalls could form as far north and west as eastern Montana and
western North Dakota this morning then race southward and eastward
into South Dakota this afternoon and the Missouri Valley by this
evening. Squalls could even continue to track into parts of Iowa,
northern Kansas, and northern Missouri tonight as the snow squall
parameter exceeds 1 in much of the CAM and even global guidance.
Though snow amounts will be light, squalls can lead to rapid
reductions in visibility with accumulating snow on roadways where
road temperatures drop below freezing and create icy hazards.


...Great Lakes/Northeast... Days 1-3...

Upper pattern will become increasingly amplified over the East as
ridging into the West weakens but builds quite smartly over the
northern Atlantic. This will help strengthen the jet to ~170kts out
of the southwest across the TN/OH Valley overnight tonight as
arctic air moves in from the northwest. Lake effect snow will pick
up in earnest starting this evening and overnight across the U.P.
of Michigan and then into the western side of Lower Michigan as
height falls rush through (500mb heights below the 1st percentile
per the CFSR) as the trough axis becomes quite negatively-titled
into the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic. 850mb temperatures will plunge to
-15C to -25C tomorrow with plenty of Lake-to-850 DeltaT. Snow will
continue through the period as winds slowly back from NW to WNW or
W as the upper center passes by. Into the Northeast, once the
front clears the area and temperatures fall below freezing area-
wide, snow will increase off Lakes Erie/Ontario, the latter of
which will support a strong single band into the Tug Hill Plateau
with lighter snow pretty far inland. Snow off Lake Erie may also
be a single banded aimed just into the BUF southtowns. Snow will
continue across all the Great Lakes through the end of this period
(12Z Fri) but will continue beyond then.

Through 12Z Fri, WPC probabilities of at least 12 inches of snow are
high (>70%) across the favored lake belts on NW flow over the U.P.
and northwest Michigan; between Erie, PA and Buffalo, NY (esp the
southtowns but perhaps into the southern Buffalo area); and in the
Tug Hill. Snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr (surpassing 3"/hr at times) are
likely in the more intense bands.


...WA/OR Cascades... Day 3...

Incoming shortwave or upper low will move into NorCal/Southwestern
OR Thursday, spreading some precipitation into the Cascades
southward into the Sierra. Snow levels will be around 3000ft to the
north and 5000ft to the south with QPF totals generally up to
0.50" or so. WPC probabilities for at least 6 inches of snow are
highest in the WA/OR Cascades.

Fracasso

$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 110710
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
210 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2024

Valid 12Z Wed Dec 11 2024 - 12Z Sat Dec 14 2024


...Central Appalachians...
Day 1...

The southern part of the system affecting the Northeast tonight
will evolve into a deep, negatively-tilted trough over the eastern
CONUS on Wednesday. As the associated frontal boundary moves east
of the Appalachians, colder air will fill in behind it, changing
rain to snow from the Cumberland Plateau to areas north and east.
Upslope enhancement in the central Appalachians will support modest
snow totals, with WPC probabilities of greater than 30 percent for accumulations of 4 inches or more largely confined to eastern West
Virginia but also northward into the Laurel Highlands.


...Great Lakes/Northeast...
Days 1-3...

Driven by falling 500mb heights and a negatively-tilted trough,
lake effect snow will intensify today across the Upper Peninsula of
Michigan and into western portions of Lower Michigan. 850mb
temperatures will drop to -15C and -25C (below the 5th percentile),
supporting significant lake-to-850 DeltaTs. Snow will continue
through Thursday while winds gradually turn from the northwest to
west- northwest, as the upper low dropping south through central
Canada pivots and moves east of the Great Lakes.

In the Northeast, once the front clears the region and
temperatures drop below freezing, snow will increase downwind of
lakes Erie and Ontario. Models continue to advertise intense,
single-bands targeting both the Tug Hill and the Buffalo Southtowns
beginning later today and continuing through Thursday. Snow will
gradually wind down from west to east across the Great Lakes
starting late Thu/early Fri before finally ending early Saturday
over NY as a surface ridge builds over the region.

For the event (next 72 hours), WPC probabilities for at least 12
inches of snow are greater than 70 percent across the favored lake-
effect snow belts of Upper Michigan, northwestern Lower Michigan,
the I-90 corridor from Erie to the Buffalo Southtowns, and the Tug
Hill Plateau. For some of these areas, especially those in New
York, WPC probabilities indicate that localized heavier amounts of
2 feet or more can be expected. Hazardous conditions can be
expected in the more intense bands where snowfall rates may exceed
2 inches per hour on Thursday per the 00Z HREF.

...Cascades/Sierra Nevada...
Days 1-3...

After a recent quiet period, the pattern will become more active
in the West over the next few days. A shortwave/compact upper low
will move ashore on Thursday, with some precipitation out ahead of
it today/tonight over the OR Cascades and the northern CA ranges.
Snow levels will be around 3000ft to the north and 5000ft to the
south, decreasing with the passage of the shortwave. Some
additional decreases are expected Thursday night before rebounding
late in the period as a ridge begins to build and precipitation
returns ahead of a low/trough amplifying over the eastern Pacific.
That system will have a little more moisture and amplitude,
focusing the precipitation northward into the WA Cascades by
Friday. Greatest impacts will be at the mountain passes throughout
the region from the WA Cascades southward into the norther Sierra.
WPC probabilities for 3-day snow totals of 12 inches or more are
highest over the Oregon Cascades into the Shasta-Siskiyous/Trinity
region and the northern Sierra Nevada.

...Corn Belt...
Day 3...

Upper low exiting the Rockies on Friday will start to tap limited
moisture out of the Gulf, eventually promoting an area of WAA-
driven precipitation across the Corn Belt. Cold air mass in place
beneath a warming ~850mb layer will favor an area of mixed
precipitation (sleet/freezing rain) just south of some light snow
on the northern side where the column remains below freezing.
Amounts may be light, but any freezing rain could be hazardous. WPC probabilities for at least 0.1" of ice accumulation are 10-30%
over IA through 12Z Saturday.


The probability of significant icing greater than 0.25 inches is
less than 10 percent across the CONUS this period.

Fracasso/Pereira

$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 120806
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
306 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2024

Valid 12Z Thu Dec 12 2024 - 12Z Sun Dec 15 2024

...Great Lakes.. Days 1-2...

The core of an anomalous upper low (-2 sigma at 500mb according to
NAEFS with a 510dm center) will begin to fill and drift eastward
across southern Canada on D1, with the primary mid-level trough
axis pivoting into New England by 00Z Saturday. This will be
replaced by brief shortwave ridging downstream of a potent trough
digging across the Central Plains. Until that happens, however, the
environment will remain favorable for another round of widespread
and heavy lake-effect snow (LES) in the W/NW snow belts.

At the start of the forecast period, 850mb temps will be generally
-15C to -20C, and continue to plunge to -18C to -23C by 00Z Friday
before slow warming begins. This CAA supplying the cold air will
move across Great Lakes water temperatures that are still warm,
generally +5 to +9C, supporting deltaT that is well above
threshold for heavy LES, and will drive lake-induced equilibrium
levels 10,000 - 15,000 ft, which will be well above the -10C
isotherm suggesting potential lightning in the heavier bands. This
will support snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr in many of the bands, with
locally 3-4"/hr possible downstream of Lakes Erie and Ontario.
Combined with the cold temperatures and gusty winds, significant
travel impacts are expected within LES.

The heaviest LES is likely D1 before a slow ease of CAA (and onset
of subtle WAA) wanes LES from west to east during D2, but not
before multiple feet of snow occur in the more persistent and
intense banding. WPC probabilities D1 are high (>70%) for more than
8 inches in the eastern U.P., near Traverse Bay, along the
Chautauqua Ridge, and into the Tug Hill Plateau, with high
probabilities continuing on D2 only in the Tug Hill.

...Pacific Coast and Interior Northwest... Days 1-3...

Two waves of precipitation will spread onshore the West Coast and
then inland through the forecast period bringing widespread snow
to the higher elevations.

The first wave of moisture will be ongoing to start the period as a
slowly filling closed low drops into northern CA with 500mb height
anomalies falling below -1 sigma according to NAEFS. Height falls
combined with the LFQ of an accompanying upper level jet streak
will drive ascent onshore, leading to locally heavy snow, primarily
confined to the Sierra Nevada. The strongest forcing is transient
and pushes south of the area halfway through D1, but at least a
short duration of 1"/hr snow rates is likely across the Sierra,
generally above 5000 ft. During D1, WPC probabilities for more than
6 inches of snow are above 70% in the Sierra, but probabilities for
more than 12 inches are only 10-30%.

A more significant system will then approach the coast from the
Pacific Friday into Saturday, leading to a more substantial
precipitation event after only a brief break Thursday night into
Friday. This system will again be driven by a pronounced closed low
offshore, opening into a potent trough as it shifts across CA/OR
late Saturday, reaching the Great Basin by the end of the forecast
period. Once again, downstream divergence, warm/moist advection,
and robust jet energy will combine to drive ascent. However, this
second system will be more broad, reflected by 500mb height
anomalies below -1 sigma across much of the Pacific Coast, combined
with modestly coupled jet streaks to push a strong surface low into
British Columbia and a second wave across CA. This overall more
impressive system is reflected as well by GEFS and ECENS
probabilities for 500 kg/m/s IVT lifting onshore exceeding 60%.

Snow levels across the West with this second system will generally
remain around 4000-5000 ft, with a narrow corridor exceeding 6000
ft in the strongest IVT/WAA. However strong ascent into an
environment with a deep layer of lapse rates stronger than moist-
adiabatic could lower snow levels beyond forecasts, and the NBM
25th percentile may be more representative, which reaches as low as
3000-4000 ft during the heaviest precipitation, and falls even
lower as precip begins to shift eastward. This suggests the
potential for more widespread pass-level impacts, reflected by
WSSI-P above 70% for moderate impacts due primarily to snow load
and snow rate in the Sierra and Shasta/Trinity region. Lesser, but
still notable impacts, are possible as far north as the WA Cascades.

WPC probabilities for more than 8 inches of snow on D2 are high

70%) but confined to the Shasta/Trinity region of northern CA and

the highest peak of the WA/OR Cascades. By D3, high WPC
probabilities for more than 8 inches spread across the length of
the Sierra and into the Sawtooth/Salmon River Ranges, while also
continuing near Mt. Shasta.

...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... Days 2-3...

A closed 500mb low emerging from the Central Rockies will track
eastward while deepening and pulling south in response to a potent
vorticity lobe rotating around its base. The trend in the global
guidance has been for this feature to be a little weaker and
farther south, and while this will likely result in more
interaction with a stationary front/modest low-level baroclinic
zone, the resultant downstream moisture advection may be somewhat
muted. Still, as this advects east into Missouri by Saturday
evening, it will combine with strengthening fgen in response to
surging WAA to drive moisture northward reflected by a narrow
channel of +1 sigma PWs on the NAEFS tables, while also helping to
create a surface low moving across the Central Plains and the Upper
Midwest by the end of the forecast period.

Downstream of this low, a sprawling high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic states will gradually retreat to the east. This will
allow confluent flow to merge into the Corn Belt and then Upper
Midwest, with overrunning WAA leading to a period of mixed
precipitation including sleet and freezing rain, with snow farther
north. Even where precipitation is snow, it may begin as a period
of ZR/IP due to antecedent low RH within the DGZ (no ice growth)
noted in regional soundings.

There remains considerable spread in the latitudinal gain of warm
air, but with the high retreating steadily and WAA increasing,
solutions with a farther north depiction of accumulating snow and
ice seem more reasonable, and this could result in hazardous
accretions of freezing rain, and modest snowfall as well. Current
WPC probabilities for more than 4 inches of snow are less than 10%
with this system, but the probability for at least 0.1 inches of
ice are 10-30% D2 in central IA, increasing to 50-70% D3 when
locally as much as 0.2 inches is possible.

Weiss

$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 130813
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
313 AM EST Fri Dec 13 2024

Valid 12Z Fri Dec 13 2024 - 12Z Mon Dec 16 2024


...Great Lakes.. Day 1...

Residual heavy lake-effect snow (LES) will persist through the
first half of Friday, especially east of Lake Ontario into the Tug
Hill Plateau, before increasing SW flow downstream of a shortwave
moving through the middle of the country causes WAA and shuts off
LES by the end of D1. Before that occurs, the environment remains
favorable for 2+"/hr snow rates, primarily downstream of Lake
Ontario, before intensity wanes and LES ends later in the day.
Despite a generally short duration of continuing heavy LES, WPC
probabilities for more than 6 inches are high (>70%) downstream of
Lake Ontario, with locally up to 12 inches possible.

...Western U.S...

A closed low over the eastern Pacific will amplify and shed
periodic vorticity lobes towards the Pacific Coast of the United
States and Canada. Each of these will combine with increased
moisture to cause widespread winter weather across the region.

California... Days 1-2...

One of these shortwaves will intensify into a pronounced trough,
taking on a negative tilt as it shifts into central CA Saturday
aftn /early D2/. This will act in tandem with modestly coupled jet
streaks to drive ascent, while impressive moist advection surges
IVT to 500-750 kg/m/s according to both GEFS and ECENS
probabilities. Snow levels will rise to around 5000 ft within the
core of this IVT, highest in the Trinity/Shasta/Siskiyou region,
but still support heavy snow in the higher terrain, with
accumulations aided by nearly ideal upslope flow. Although the
heaviest snowfall, which will likely feature rates above 1"/hr will
occur within the warmer snow levels/higher IVT, even as snow levels
fall behind the primary trough axis moderate to heavy snow will
persist through D2 before waning. Additionally, heavy snow through
synoptic and impressive upslope flow will extend along the length
of the Sierra, bringing substantial impacts to many of the Crest
Passes. WPC probabilities for more than 12 inches of snow is
extremely high (>90%) in the Shasta/Trinity region and the northern
Sierra D1, continuing above 70% D2 while extending down the length
of the Sierra. Local snowfall maxima of more than 4 feet are likely
in the highest terrain.

Pacific Northwest through Northern Rockies... Days 1-2...

Farther north, a stronger closed mid-level low will push into
British Columbia as it remains embedded in the downstream southerly
flow ahead of the larger scale trough axis. This will drive
persistent moist advection into the Pacific Northwest D1 into D2,
with this moisture then merging with the aforementioned shortwave
ejecting from CA to drive widespread heavy precipitation into the
Northern and Central Rockies. Snow levels will fluctuate through
the period, but generally remain around 4000-5000 ft. However,
strong ascent and ample moisture could result in locally lower snow
levels through cold-air dragging on intense snowfall rates,
especially in regions of intense upslope ascent or modest elevated
instability.

WPC probabilities for more than 6 inches of snow are high (>80%)
along the WA/OR Cascades, the Olympics, and into the Salmon
River/Sawtooth region on D1, with the highest probabilities
focusing across parts of ID and into the Tetons D2, while
remaining, albeit more modestly, in the Cascades. By D3 the highest
WPC probabilities for more than 6 inches of snowfall drop
considerably to 30-50%, focused almost exclusively in the Tetons.
Storm total snowfall of 20-30 inches likely in the higher terrain
of many of these ranges. With snow levels ranging between around
4000-5000 ft, some of the higher passes could experience
considerable impacts as well.

...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... Days 1-2...

A trough ejecting from the Central Rockies Friday night will
amplify into a closed low over the Central Plains as it digs E/SE
through Saturday, and then lifts northeast towards the Great Lakes
on Sunday. Height falls downstream of this deepening trough will
combine with weak but coupled jet streaks aloft and a residual
low-level baroclinic gradient to drive surface cyclogenesis in the
lee of the Rockies Friday night. As this low moves progressively to
the east, it will draw increased moisture northward from the Gulf
of Mexico, channeling an axis of PW anomalies as high as +2 sigma
into MO/IA Saturday. This moisture has steadily shown an increased
trend with recent model runs, likely in response to a subtly deeper
upper low.

As this feature moves east and deepens, it will interact with a
retreating but sprawling surface high (max pressure around
1050mb!). This will leave an environment that is cold enough for
wintry precipitation, but as the WAA intensifies, the high will
lose its favorable position for cold advection leading to a column
that will become overwhelmed by the WAA and warm with time.
Additionally, it will take some time for the DGZ to saturate as the
antecedent air is quite dry, so this setup continues to look more
favorable for IP (and mostly ZR), with just some snow on the
northern side. However, the stronger low could also result in some
more intense deformation to the north of the surface low, leading
to at least some modest snowfall accumulations in MN/WI.

Despite that, the primary hazard appears to be freezing rain, and
WPC probabilities have increased for significant accretion, with
locally damaging icing now possible as reflected by max
probabilities reaching around 30% for > 0.25" of ice, highest
across central IA.

...Central Appalachians... Day 3...

The same high pressure retreating eastward from the Upper Midwest
(above) will push into New England and then favorable wedge down
the coast in a Cold Air Damming (CAD) setup east of the
Appalachians. As moisture from a low pressure moving into the Great
Lakes shifts eastward, it will encounter cold air, especially in
the higher elevations, supportive of wintry precipitation. However,
the robust WAA driving the expanding precipitation shield is
likely to overrun the cold air, leading to a corridor of
significant freezing rain, with only light snow accompanying. WPC
probabilities for more than 0.1" of freezing rain have increased to
as high as 50-70% across the higher terrain from eastern WV,
through the western Panhandle of MD, and into the Laurel Highlands of PA.

Weiss

$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 140817
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
317 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2024

Valid 12Z Sat Dec 14 2024 - 12Z Tue Dec 17 2024

...Western U.S...

An active period will bring widespread winter weather to much of
the West through early next week.

A large trough just offshore the Pacific Coast to start the period
will shed two distinct compact vort maxima/shortwaves onshore on
D1. One of these will pivot northward into British Columbia, while
the second one ejects into central CA. Although the northern
impulse is a bit deeper relative to the CFSR climatology (500mb
heights below the bottom 2.5 percentile according to NAEFS), the
greater moisture/IVT will pivot into CA associated with the
southern system as the northern moisture channel lifts into Canada. Additionally, there will be a modestly coupled jet streak
downstream of the primary trough axis and in the vicinity of this
southern impulse, helping to enhance ascent to spread more
widespread moisture northeast. On D1, this will cause widespread
heavy snow from the Sierra and Shasta/Trinity region eastward into
the Salmon River/Sawtooth Ranges, Blue Mountains, and as far east
as the Tetons and Big Horns, WPC probabilities are high (>70%) for
above 12 inches in the CA ranges and into ID thanks to higher
moisture, strong synoptic lift, and impressive upslope flow driving
snowfall rates of 2+"/hr at times. 1-2 feet of snow is possible D1
across these areas.

More modest snowfall across the WA/OR Cascades and Olympics where
both ascent and moisture are more limited. Still, WPC probabilities
in the Cascades and Olympics are moderate to high (50-90%) for
more than 8 inches. Snow levels D1 will climb briefly to as high as
5000-6000 ft in the core of the max IVT/WAA/moisture plume, but
will fall gradually most of the day to as low as 2000 ft in the
Cascades and 3500 ft elsewhere. This will allow at least modest
accumulations below pass levels, but most of the accumulating snow
is likely during the period of higher snow levels.

On D2, the pattern evolves quickly as a narrow but amplified
longwave ridge builds over the Pacific Coast, forced between the
departing trough now moving into the northern High Plains and a
renewed closed low back over the Pacific Ocean. This will force a
respite in precipitation across the coast and into the Great Basin,
but wintry precipitation will continue into the Northern Rockies,
but in a slowly waning fashion. Snow levels will continue to fall
steadily D2, reaching below 1000 ft in the Northern Rockies, which
coincident with continuing (but easing) snow will result in heavy
snow accumulations across the NW WY ranges, with some light
accumulations down into most of the valleys. WPC probabilities D2
are moderate (50-70%) for an additional 6+ inches, highest in the Tetons.

Late D2 and then more substantially into D3, the large closed low
west of WA/OR will spin two distinct vorticity maxima/shortwaves
onshore, leading to increasing waves of precipitation spilling
eastward once again. With this next impulse, snow levels will
initially be low, only around 1500 ft, with modest rising
occurring in the axis of greatest IVT. Despite IVT progged to
remain only around 250 kg/m/s, this will lift snow levels to around
3500 ft west of the Cascades in WA/OR, and then potentially as
high as 4500 ft later D3 with the second wave. With impressive
ascent increasing, and upslope flow amplifying into the terrain,
heavy snowfall will result, and WPC probabilities D3 are moderate
(50-70%) for 6+ inches from the Shasta/Trinity region northward
along the Cascades.

Moisture spilling east into the interior Northwest will encounter
some trapped cold air and modest easterly flow ahead of the
accompanying WAA/IVT, such that some light freezing rain could
result on the eastern side of the Cascades. Potentially more
impressively, the accompanying WAA and associated fgen could result
in heavier snow rates farther east which could reach the valley
floors of interior WA and OR. Confidence is low this far out, but
WPC probabilities do indicate at least a low chance for 1" of snow
across much of WA east of the Cascades, with heavier snow likely
moving back into the Salmon River/Sawtooth Ranges before the end of
the period.

...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... Day 1...

A mixed snow, sleet, and freezing rain event will be ongoing to
start the forecast period as a wave of low pressure moves steadily
from Kansas into the western Great Lakes. This low will be driven
by a compact but potent closed low moving over-top the surface
low, with downstream warm and moist advection expanding the
precipitation shield northeast through the region. As this
vertically stacked system moves east, it will run into some cold
and dry antecedent air as an expansive high pressure gradually
retreats towards New England. As WAA intensifies, it will push a
warm nose above 0C, while surface wet-bulb temperatures will remain
below freezing. The guidance has narrowed the corridor of
significant freezing rain, and despite what could be moderate
precip rates (supported by soundings) and a lack of dry advection
to offset latent heat release of freezing (and to prevent
substantial warming), there is high confidence in a stripe of
significant ice accretion, especially in eastern and central IA.
Here, WPC probabilities are moderate (50-70%) for an additional
0.1+ inches of ice, leading to local event totals exceeding 0.25".

...Central Appalachians... Days 1-2...

Sprawling high pressure with impressive central pressure
approaching 1050mb will gradually pivot east through New England
during the weekend. While this feature will retreat, it will extend
down the coast east of the Appalachians as a cold-air damming
scenario, at least initially reinforced by mid-level confluence
ahead of an approaching shortwave. This impulse will lift from the
Corn Belt late Saturday to off the New England coast, with the
associated moisture and ascent producing a swath of precipitation
extending from the Southern Appalachians through southern New
England. The WAA overrunning the cold surface layer will likely
result in an axis of moderate to heavy freezing rain in the higher
elevations from southern WV through the MD Panhandle and into the
Laurel Highlands where WPC probabilities for more than 0.1 inches
of ice reach as high as 70%, and locally in excess of 0.25" is
possible near the MD Panhandle and into the southern Laurel
Highlands which is where the greatest duration of freezing rain is
expected. Surrounding this, light freezing rain could result in
accumulating ice exceeding 0.01 inches as far south as the northern
escarpment of SC, and as far north as some of the higher terrain of
Upstate NY.

While the most significant winter impacts are likely due to
freezing rain, many areas from PA through MA will experience
precipitation at least starting a snow with some light
accumulations likely in the higher elevations of the Poconos,
Catskills, and Upstate NY/western New England. At this time
however, WPC probabilities are only 50-70% for 2+ inches in these
areas. In places that receive mostly rain, a brief mix of snow and
sleet is possible during precipitation onset even as far southeast
as the I-95 corridor, but no accumulation is expected.

...Northern Plains... Days 2-3...

Vorticity maxima leftover from a weakening shortwave will lift
northeast from the Great Basin, with secondary intensification of
this feature likely over eastern MT Sunday. The guidance has
continued to trend a bit deeper and farther south with this
secondary development, suggesting a higher potential for some
moderate to heavy precipitation from MT into ND.

As the lead shortwave weakens and pushes northeast, some leading
WAA will expand light precipitation into the northern High Plains.
Forecast soundings suggest considerable dry air to overcome, but
as this occurs it will cause some wet-bulb effects to keep temps
below freezing and an axis of light freezing rain is likely from
eastern MT into western ND Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Accumulations are likely to be modest, however, as reflected by WPC probabilities for 0.1+" of ice peaking around 30% in eastern MT on
D2. Still, any freezing rain can cause hazardous travel
conditions.

Thereafter, the secondary impulse deepens into a closed low which
should cause some enhanced deformation to the north and west of the
system. This deformation acting upon some higher theta-e air
wrapping cyclonically around the low (emerging from intensifying
290K isentropic ascent downstream) will support some banded snow
rotating through ND and then into MN Sunday night and Monday. At
this time total snowfall is still expected to be light however,
with WPC probabilities for 2+ inches of snow reaching just around
50% from eastern ND into northern MN.

Weiss
$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 150727
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
227 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2024

Valid 12Z Sun Dec 15 2024 - 12Z Wed Dec 18 2024

...Pacific Northwest through the Northern Rockies... Days 1-3...

An active period of weather will bring periods of of heavy snow to
much of the region through the middle of next week.

The period begins with a broad longwave mid-level trough centered
over the Rockies. Within this trough, a modest shortwave impulse
and accompanying vorticity maxima will be shedding northeast into
the Northern Rockies, interacting with modest downstream moisture
reflected by near-normal PWs according to NAEFS. This will spread a
swath of precipitation across ID/WY/MT the first half of D1 before
an approaching shortwave ridge brings an end to the precipitation.
Most of this precipitation will be light, with the exception likely
in the vicinity of NW WY/Tetons where upslope flow and some
enhanced fgen will drive heavier rates and greater snowfall
accumulations. WPC probabilities D1 for more than 8 inches of snow
are high, above 70%, in the Tetons and adjacent Absarokas to the north.

Behind this first shortwave, the aforementioned shortwave ridging
will cause a brief respite to precipitation in the Pacific
Northwest, but this will come to an end by the start of D2 as
another amplified closed low drifts eastward across the Pacific
Ocean. Downstream of this low, mid-level divergence will approach
the coast Monday morning, with periodic PVA through shedding
vorticity lobes helping to enhance ascent. The downstream SW/WAA
ahead of this feature will surge moisture back onshore as well,
reflected by IVT approaching the 97th percentile as both GEFS and
ECENS probabilities for IVT of 500 kg/m/s reach 20-30%. This will
spread heavier precipitation back onshore the Pacific Northwest,
with snow falling above generally 3000 ft in the Cascades, and
spilling into the interior Northwest where snow levels will be even
lower, around 1500 ft. This will result in moderate to heavy snow
from the Shasta/Siskiyou/Klamath region of CA northward along the
Cascades and as far inland as the Blue Mountains and Salmon River
range. Across these areas, WPC probabilities are moderate to high
(50-70%) for at least 8 inches of snow, and locally more than 12
inches is likely (>70%) in the highest terrain of the OR Cascades
and near Mt. Shasta.

During D3, a warm front just offshore will lift northward, and the
accompanying precipitation will follow on enhanced WAA lifting
across OR/ID/WA. The intensity of this precipitation should
generally be lighter in the snow areas than on D2, but additional
accumulations exceeding 6 inches are possible (30-50%), highest in
the WA Cascades.

...Central Appalachians... Day 1...

Weakening surface low pressure moving across the OH VLY will spread
downstream moisture northward into the Central Appalachians and
Mid-Atlantic States. This moisture will surge northward on
intensifying 295K isentropic ascent, lifting atop a retreating but
still expansive high pressure centered over New England and its
resultant wedge east of the Appalachians. As the high retreats and
the surface low weakens while moving eastward, low-level flow will
veer to become primarily S/SE, not ideal for locking in any low-
level cold air. This suggests that while precipitation will begin
wintry (snow/sleet/freezing rain) in most areas from the highest
elevations of SC northward, it will quickly turn to rain outside of
the higher terrain. Even in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast as far
southeast as the I-95 corridor, precipitation may start as a brief
period of sleet or snow before turning to rain. This will limit
wintry accumulation in many areas.

However, in the higher terrain of WV, through the MD Panhandle, and
into the Laurel Highlands, a prolonged period of freezing rain is
likely, which will accrete to moderate to substantial ice amounts
through Sunday night. Some modest conditional instability reflected
by theta-e lapse rates around 0C/km will support at times briefly
heavy rain rates, somewhat limiting the accretion potential
(especially without any dry-bulbing affects), but prolonged
duration of freezing rain has still bumped WPC probabilities to
moderate (30-50%) for 0.25" centered near the MD Panhandle, with
high probabilities (>70%) for at least 0.01" stretched from NC
northward along the Appalachians into Upstate NY.

...Northern Plains... Days 1-2...

A wave of low pressure moving from MT through MN Sunday into Monday
will deepen in response to a mid-level shortwave closing off
overhead, collocated with the LFQ of a modest but poleward arcing
jet streak. As this low slowly intensifies, the downstream plume of rich theta-e air spreading northward from the Gulf of Mexico will begin
to wrap cyclonically around the low, potentially supporting modest
TROWAL development pivoting into far northern ND and northern MN
Sunday night. The leading WAA ahead of this developing low will
likely result in some modest freezing rain across far western ND
and eastern MT early D1 due to lack of saturation within the DGZ,
but WPC probabilities on D1 are above 70% for at least some icing,
with a narrow channel of 10-30% near the ND/MT border for 0.1 inches.

More impressive is likely to be the snowfall on the northern edge
of this system as it progresses east, with snow becoming more
intense Monday from eastern ND through northern MN. Here, elevated
instability beneath the TROWAL combined with modest deformation
could result in banded snow structures, offsetting otherwise modest
omega present within the column. There is still some uncertainty
into how much snow may result as precipitation expands and
intensifies Monday, but WPC probabilities have increased and are
50-70% from northern ND across into northern MN for 2+ inches, and
the WSE plumes do suggest at least a low-end potential for 4-5
inches in some areas. Regardless of the intensity and amounts of
snow, hazardous travel is likely as fluffy SLR snow combines with
gusty winds to cause snow covered roads with restricted visibility,
but WSSI-P for moderate impacts remains quite low for this area
suggesting primarily minor impacts.

Weiss

$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 160830
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
330 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2024

Valid 12Z Mon Dec 16 2024 - 12Z Thu Dec 19 2024

...Pacific Northwest through the Northern Rockies... Days 1-3...

An active period of weather continues across the West as a trough
persists offshore shedding impulses and accompanying IVT onto the
coast. Despite this, the general trends will be for bulging
thicknesses across the West with increasingly quiet weather
forecast through the period.

On D1, a strung out vorticity lobe accompanying a shortwave trough
will lift northeast towards the WA coast, driving a frontal system
eastward towards the shore. As this feature moves to the east, it
will weaken and elongate, but still push increasing moisture into
the region within confluent mid-level flow. The highest
accompanying IVT will move across CA and into the Great Basin, but
a broader surge of elevated PWs will shift into most of the Pacific
and interior Northwest, resulting in a shield of precipitation
lifting across the area. Snow levels west of the Cascade crest will
rise to around 4000 ft, but remain much lower to the east,
especially across interior WA state at just 1500-2500 ft, but then
rise again to around 3000 ft in the Northern Rockies. Where the
best overlap of synoptic lift (through height falls, downstream
divergence, and upper level diffluence) and upslope flow combine,
likely in the Shasta/Siskiyou region, the OR Cascades, and as far
east as the Salmon Rivers and Tetons. In these ranges and above the aforementioned snow levels, WPC probabilities D1 for more than 8
inches are generally 70-90%, with locally as much as 2 feet possible.

As this first wave sheds inland, it will be quickly followed by
another, more impressive surge of IVT (GEFS and ECENS probabilities
for >500 kg/m/s as high as 80%). This secondary plume will traverse
more quickly north as a low-level trough axis and following warm-
front extending from another approaching shortwave pushes from
northern CA into WA state. This surge will drive snow levels
rapidly upward, reaching as high as 8000 ft by the end of D2 west
of the Cascades, but even 5000-7000 ft as far east as the northern
Rockies and the Great Basin. This will cause a rapid decrease in
snow coverage while SLRs also fall to become much heavier (also
reflected by increasing snow load probabilities in the WSSI-P). WPC probabilities D2 are highest in the WA Cascades and Northern
Rockies where they reach 70-90% for an additional 6+ inches, with
lighter additional accumulations expected across the Salmon Rivers,
Sawtooth, and Tetons.

During D3 most of the ascent and accompanying moisture shifts
eastward into the High Plains, bringing a brief reprieve to
snowfall in the Northwest. However, early in the period /Wednesday
morning/ some light snow is likely in the higher terrain of the WA
Cascades, Okanogan Highlands, and Northern Rockies, where WPC
probabilities are moderate (50-70%) for 4+ inches of additional
snowfall. Potentially more problematic early D3 will be the threat
of some freezing rain along and east of the Cascades, including
some of the passes. The deterministic icing amounts from the
guidance are quite low, as are WPC probabilities for even 0.01
inches of ice (just 10-30%), but any light icing could be
problematic for the Wednesday morning commute.

...Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest... Day 2...

A modest mid-level impulse will traverse southeast from the
Northern Rockies to the Western Great Lakes Tuesday, producing
sharp but temporally short height falls, combined with increasing
LFQ diffluence as a jet streak pivots across the region. The trends
in the guidance have been for this jet streak to be more intense
and more strongly poleward arcing, while also being a bit
displaced to the south. Although moisture downstream of this
shortwave will be modest, it will likely be effectively wrung out
as fgen intensifies directly into the deepening DGZ, supporting
snowfall rates in a narrow channel that may exceed 1"/hr. The
system is progressive, but the briefly heavy snow should cause some
moderate accumulations and modest impacts. WPC probabilities are
currently less than 10% for 4+ inches (but 50-70% for 2+ inches),
but it is possible some higher snowfall will occur with this band.

...Northeast & Eastern Great Lakes... Day 3...

Guidance starting to converge on a solution which will bring a
progressive but impactful winter storm to the interior Northeast
Wednesday night and Thursday. Dual shortwaves, one lifting out of
the Missouri Valley Wednesday, and a second northern stream impulse
diving across the Great Lakes may interact or phase near 12Z
Thursday (end of D3) over Upstate New York. This will occur along
an eastward racing cold front, with downstream and intensifying
warm advection spreading moisture northward as an expanding
precipitation shield from the eastern OH VLY into New England.
It appears through the OH VLY and Mid-Atlantic, most of the
precipitation will be rain as the column dries before cold air can
catch the moisture.

However, across interior PA, NY, and northern New England, the
risk for heavy snow is increasing as the two shortwaves phase and
produce secondary cyclogenesis off the coast. At this time there
continues to be considerable timing and spatial spread of this
secondary low, leading to wide fluctuations in snowfall potential.
However, the setup should result in a pronounced band of heavy snow
through WAA/Fgen, resulting in an axis of heavy accumulations.
Where this is going to occur, and with what intensity, remains very
uncertain as reflected by DESI LREF plumes and very low WSSI-P
probabilities for moderate impacts. However, current WPC
probabilities have increased, and feature a 50-70% chance of at
least 4 inches of snow, greatest across the high terrain of the
Adirondacks, Greens, and Whites.

...Northern Plains... Day 3...

Zonal flow across Western Canada will become suppressed in response
to a sharpening shortwave which will amplify as it digs east of the
Northern Rockies and reaches the Dakotas before the end of the
forecast period. This shortwave is progged to remain progressive,
but should deepen substantially and will work in tandem with a
digging jet streak to drive pronounced ascent Wednesday night into
eastern MT and the Dakotas. This synoptic lift moving atop a
baroclinic gradient along a weak front will help launch
cyclogenesis, and a strong clipper type low is likely to dive into
the region D3. Impressive WAA downstream of this feature will help
deepen the DGZ (SREF probabilities for > 50mb of depth increase to
70%), which should work together with the ageostrophic response to
the jet streak to produce a band of impressive fgen. The column is
quite cold at this time and the best fgen may reside above the
DGZ, but a band of heavy snow is becoming more likely Wednesday
night. A lot of details will still need to be ironed out, but
current WPC probabilities are moderate (50-70%) for 4+ inches of
snow across northern ND, with additional moderate to heavy snow
likely to continue downstream through D4.

Weiss
$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 170746
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
246 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2024

Valid 12Z Tue Dec 17 2024 - 12Z Fri Dec 20 2024

...Pacific Northwest through the Northern Rockies... Days 1-2...

Shortwave ridging over the Pacific Northwest will quickly be
displaced by an approaching trough moving eastward from the
Pacific leading to height falls along the coast. While the core of
this feature will lift into British Columbia, a secondary vorticity
maxima will pivot onshore NW WA state Tuesday night with enhanced
ascent through PVA, height falls, and concurrent upper level
diffluence. This impulse will move quickly eastward, but will be
accompanied by a lead warm front and trailing cold front, causing
fluctuations in snow levels.

The heaviest precipitation is likely to accompany the warm front,
generally 18Z Tuesday through 12Z Wednesday, with a secondary surge
along the trailing cold front Wednesday morning. During the warm
frontal passage and accompanying WAA/moisture surge, snow levels
are progged to climb to as high as 8000 ft along and west of the
Cascades. This will limit significant snowfall to just the higher
terrain, with rain the primary p-type at the passes. However,
during the transition from cold to warm, a period of freezing rain
is possible even as low as Snoqualmie and Stevens Passes, creating
hazardous travel this evening before changing to all-rain. East of
the Crest, cold air locked in within Canadian high pressure will
allow for more substantial freezing rain/ice accretion through
early Wednesday. The subsequent cold front will produce primarily
rain, as snow levels crash behind it but occur with rapid drying as
well.

For the areas that get snow and ice accumulations, moderate impacts
are expected as reflected by the WSSI-P showing a high chance

80%) for moderate impacts in the WA Cascades and into the

foothills. Here, WPC probabilities for 0.1 inches of ice are
generally 10-30%, and 70-90+% for 6 or more inches of snow. By D2
as the cold front shifts east, additional moderate snowfall
accumulations are likely in the Northern Rockies where WPC
probabilities are 30-50% for 6+ inches.


...Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest... Day 1...

A compact and fast moving shortwave will eject from the Northern
Rockies early Tuesday and then race eastward towards the Great
Lakes. This feature will remain of low amplitude, but be
accompaniedby a potent vorticity streamer to enhance otherwise
modest mid- level ascent. More impressive will be a strengthening
jet streak beginning to arc poleward immediately downstream of the
shortwave trough axis. Together this will produce an narrow
corridor of intense ascent which can support a heavy snow band
moving generally west to east from SD through southern MN and into
WI. The most intense ascent should occur during the daylight hours,
but a deepening DGZ (SREF 100mb of depth probabilities reaching
50%) which is aligned with the greatest ascent through 700-600mb
fgen, will support heavy snow rates that could exceed 1"/hr at
times. The progressive nature of this will limit snowfall totals,
but WPC probabilities for 2+ inches are above 70% in a stripe
across eastern SD into SW MN, with locally 4-6" probable as
reflected by HREF max ensemble output in the most intense snow
banding.

Days 2-3...
After this first wave exits, a brief respite will occur before a
more pronounced system digs out of Canada and dives SW into the
Northern Plains. This will be driven by a potent shortwave dropping
from the Canadian Rockies and into North Dakota by Thursday
morning, with the primary ascent efficiently overlapped with the
LFQ of a strengthening jet streak also digging into the region.
This deep layer ascent will impinge into a low-level baroclinic
boundary as a warm front drapes eastward, resulting in rapid
cyclogenesis in eastern MT, with this low then moving into ND and
then into the Great Lakes by the end of D3.

As this wave moves eastward and deepens, WAA/isentropic ascent will
begin to intensify between 280K-285K on Thursday surging moisture
into and downstream of the system, reflected by an axis of PWs
exceeding the 90th percentile according to NAEFS. At the same time,
this WAA will occur favorably into an extremely cold column to
deepen the DGZ to more than 100mb, and intensifying fgen will drive
pronounced ascent into this DGZ. The deep DGZ, a sub-DGZ isothermal
layer, and modest winds in a very cold column suggest SLRs will be
quite high, and this will rapidly accumulate despite the general
progressive nature of this system. At this time, WPC probabilities
D2 are high (70-90%) for more than 4 inches across much of northern
ND, with a stripe of 30-50% probabilities for 4+ inches extending
as far east as the Door Peninsula of WI. Locally, 6-8" of snow is
possible across ND during the event.


...Northeast & Eastern Great Lakes... Days 2-3...

Surface low pressure will develop near the TN VLY Wednesday morning
in response to an elongated shortwave diving from the Central
Plains across the region. This shortwave will be accompanied by
modest height falls/PVA to drive ascent, and interact with the RRQ
of a distant but still noteworthy jet streak pivoting over the
eastern Great Lakes. This low will then lift northeast along a cold
front, while a secondary, and more intense, northern stream
shortwave move over the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. These
features are likely to interact across the Northeast, leading to
secondary low pressure developing off the New England coast and
deepening as it moves into Canada.

Moisture associated with these waves will surge northward on rich
theta-e advection, resulting in PWs which are progged by NAEFS to
exceed the 90th percentile in the CFSR database. This will allow
for widespread precipitation to become heavy beginning around 00Z
Thursday, with wintry precipitation spreading across interior
portions of the northeast. While there still remains some
longitudinal spread in the placement of this low as it strengthens
near New England, the ensemble clusters have begun to focus a bit
farther to the east. This will create an environment that is colder
and more supportive to wintry precipitation, especially as the low
pulls away Thursday morning. The passes of the front combined with
the isallobaric flow into the surface low will help enhance fgen as
well, which when overlapping the increased deformation NW of the
deepening low/interacting shortwaves will likely lead to some heavy
snow rates across interior New England. However, the column as a
whole still appears generally marginal for snow, so a heavy, wet
snow, with low SLRs is likely except in the highest terrain.

The progressive nature and low SLR nature of this system will limit
total snowfall amounts, but heavy accumulations are still possible,
especially in the higher terrain which could result in at least
modest impacts due to snow load. This is reflected by WPC
probabilities that feature a moderate risk (50-70% chance) of more
than 4 inches in the highest terrain of the Adirondacks, Greens,
and Whites, with lesser accumulations extending through much of
northern New England except in the lowest valleys. Locally, 12" of
snow is possible in the highest terrain of the Whites near Mt.
Washington.

Weiss
$$
d
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FOUS11 KWBC 180752
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
252 AM EST Wed Dec 18 2024

Valid 12Z Wed Dec 18 2024 - 12Z Sat Dec 21 2024

...Pacific Northwest through the Northern Rockies...
Day 1...

Compact and fast moving but potent shortwave will lift eastward
from the WA coast into the Northern Rockies today through tonight.
This feature will help drive a surface low along the international
border with Canada, pushing a warm front downstream, and then
dragging a cold front from west to east in its wake. The enhanced
ascent in the vicinity of this frontal system will act upon robust
moisture (PW anomalies +2 sigma according to NAEFS) to wring out
some heavy precipitation from the Olympics through the Cascades
and into the Northern Rockies. Snow levels will steadily rise
behind the warm front, reaching as high as 8000 ft,
limiting significant snowfall to just the highest terrain, band WPC probabilities reach 50-70% for 6+ inches in the northern WA
Cascades and Northern Rockies near Glacier NP. Although snow levels
will crash behind the cold front, this will be coincident with a
rapid drying of the column, so any residual snowfall should be light.


...Mid-Atlantic and Northeast...
Days 1-3...

A wave of low pressure will develop across the TN VLY and then race
northeast along a cold front, with secondary wave development
likely east of Maine Wednesday night. Moisture along and ahead of
this system will increase, with PWs surging towards the 90th
climatological percentile, highest east, as WAA intensifies along a
northward advancing warm front. The antecedent airmass is
marginally conducive for wintry precipitation, and without any
strong cooling from the north, locations along and east of this
low track will likely remain all rain, with just a small temporal
window for changeover back to snow as the low pulls away Thursday.

The exception will be from the Laurel Highlands through the
Adirondacks, and across much of northern New England where, despite
still a marginal atmospheric column, the precipitation should fall
primarily as snow, except in the lower valleys. A heavy and wet
(low SLR) snow is likely, which when combined with the fast
motion of this wave will keep snowfall amounts modest, and WPC
probabilities D1 above 30% for more than 4 inches of snow are
confined to the Adirondacks, Greens, Whites, and mountains of
north/central ME.

As the low moves away Thursday, some modest upslope/lake-effect
snow may occur, but in general precip intensity and coverage will
wane during Thursday. This sets the stage for an interesting
development on Friday. A shortwave digging from the Midwest and
embedded within the larger trough will sharpen and may become
negatively tilted over the Mid- Atlantic Friday, while a surface
low develops well offshore and downstream of this larger scale
trough. The guidance has trended a bit deeper with this shortwave,
leading to greater interaction with the larger low pressure
offshore. A lot of uncertainty remains, but if these systems can
interact, the overlap of moisture and some more intense ascent
due to deformation/height falls, could result in widespread, at
least light, snow across much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
Current WPC probabilities for more than 4 inches of snow are modest
at just 10-30% across much of Upstate NY, the Poconos, and eastern
MA/ME, but this event will need to be monitored with recent model
runs for the potential for heavier snowfall in some areas.


...Northern Plains to the Midwest...
Days 1-2...

A shortwave amplifying over the Canadian Rockies will dig southeast
on Wednesday moving into the Northern Plains by Thursday morning
and then continue through the Upper Midwest and then reach the
Mid-Atlantic early on Friday. As this shortwave digs and amplifies,
it will be accompanied by a sharpening jet streak to drive deep
layer ascent through overlapping height falls, PVA, and diffluence.
This synoptic lift impinging on a low-level baroclinic gradient
will result in cyclogenesis, with this low diving progressively
southeast through D1 and D2.

Downstream, moisture will begin to enhance through the region as
impressive 280-285K isentropic lift drives rich theta-e northward,
with weak TROWAL development possible on Thursday. This overlap of
moisture and ascent produces an expanding swath of snow, with the
attendant WAA surging north to deepen the DGZ while concurrently
producing a corridor of impressive fgen. The column will be
extremely cold, so the presence of a deepening DGZ with strong fgen
should cause fluffy and above-climo SLRs which will accumulate
rapidly as reflected by the WPC prototype snowband tool suggesting
1"/hr rates moving across ND and into MN. The progressive nature
of the low will somewhat minimize the potential for significant
snowfall amounts, and there remains considerable latitudinal spread
by D2, but WPC probabilities suggest a moderate risk (50-70%) in a
stripe from northern ND into eastern WI for more than 6 inches of snow.

Weiss
$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 190856
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 AM EST Thu Dec 19 2024

Valid 12Z Thu Dec 19 2024 - 12Z Sun Dec 22 2024

...Midwest to Great Lakes...
Days 1-2...

A progressive Alberta Clipper producing a swath of heavy snow over
North Dakota tonight will track across the Upper Midwest today.
Modest 850mb WAA along the warm front and 850mb theta-e wrapping
around the northern flank of the storm will prompt a snow to come
down at 1-2"/hr rates in some cases from eastern ND to central
Minnesota and central Wisconsin. The higher end of those rates will
be harder to come by east of the Mississippi River as 850mb
frontolysis sets in, leading to a reduction in snowfall rates.
Still, the 500mb shortwave trough responsible for upper level
ascent will still preside over the region and allow for periods of moderate-to-heavy snow through Thursday evening. In fact, some
snowfall could be lake-enhanced along the shores of Wisconsin and
Illinois as northerly winds advecting -10C 850mb temps race over
Lake Michigan. By Thursday night, the 850mb low will track through
northern Indiana with the best accumulating snow potential to the
north of the 850mb low track. This favors central and northern
Michigan Friday morning with a chance for the Detroit metro area to
see light accumulations Friday afternoon. The storm system will
gradually weaken into an open wave Friday afternoon as it
approaches the central Appalachians, effectively ending the period
of snowfall related to this Clipper in the Great Lakes by Friday evening.

The WSSI shows a large swath of Minor Impacts that stretch from
North Dakota and far northern South Dakota to as farther east as
northern Michigan. There are some embedded Moderate Impact areas,
primarily in parts of central North Dakota, around the Twin Cities
metro, and in eastern Wisconsin. Moderate Impacts imply these
areas can expect hazardous driving conditions with some potential
closures and disruptions to infrastructure. WPC probabilities sport
high chances (>70%) for snowfall totals >4" from central MN to the
Door Peninsula of Wisconsin. It is worth noting that there are
some localized low chance probabilities (10-30%) for snowfall
totals >8" in central MN and central WI, as well as around the
Green Bay area where lake-enhanced snowfall could result in
localized amounts approaching 10 inches.

...Central Appalachians to Northeast....
Days 2-3...

As the Alberta Clipper tracks through the Lower Great Lakes Friday
morning, a secondary 500mb vort max that raced south from south-
central Canada will begin to phase with the shortwave associated
with the Clipper. This process, starting as early Thursday night,
will lead to an amplification of the 500mb trough as it tracks
towards the Central Appalachians Friday morning. Meanwhile, off the
East Coast, increasing upper level divergence along a frontal
boundary will allow for low pressure to quickly organize and
strengthen Friday afternoon. As WAA increases along the front,
moisture will wrap around the low and lead to broad precipitation
shield just off the Northeast coast Friday night. This could result
in heavy snow along Downeast Maine, but how close to the Maine
coastline the storm gets remain lower in confidence. WPC
probabilities suggest the eastern-most portion of Downeast Maine
has low-to-moderate chances (30-50%) for snowfall >6" of snow
through Saturday evening. In addition, high pressure over Quebec
will work in tandem with the deepening storm system to tighten the
pressure gradient and strengthening low-level northerly winds off
the MA Capes. There is the potential for ocean-effect snow over
southeast MA Friday evening. WPC probabilities show low chances
(10-3) for snowfall >4", which does include the Boston metro area.

Throughout the rest of the Northeast, western NY and northern PA
will see the clipper's remnant 850mb circulation track overhead
with modest 850-700mb moisture and weak 850mb WAA will supply the
ingredients necessary for periods of snow late Thursday night and
into Friday. By Friday afternoon, the forecast over parts of the
northern Mid-Atlantic will hinge upon the strength of low-level
easterly flow and a convergence axis over the region, while
sufficient upper level divergence from the left-exit region of a
500mb jet streak arrives. Should these factors mesh together in
just the right way, a pivoting band of snow may organize some where
between northeast MD or the northern DelMarVa Peninsula on
northeast through eastern PA, the Poconos, and into the Tri-State
area. The latter is most favored for accumulating snowfall as WPC
probabilities show moderate chances (40-60%) for snowfall totals
surpassing 2" between Friday afternoon and early Saturday morning.

If there is one mountain range that is favored to witness heavier
snowfall, it is the central Appalachians in eastern WV and western
MD. As the remnant surface low of the Clipper heads east Friday
evening, its moisture source will track into the mountains at the
same time as northwesterly winds begin to increase. The end result
is upslope flow that causes periods of snow as far north as PA's
Laurel Highlands. WPC probabilities favor those windward slopes of
eastern WV with moderate chances (40-60%) for snowfall >4",
especially at elevations above 2000ft between 18Z Fri - 18Z Sat.
For all these areas mentioned in this section, the WSSI shows Minor
Impacts for impacted areas that would primarily lead to locally
hazardous travel conditions through Saturday morning.


The probabilities for significant ice accumulations are less than
10 percent.

Mullinax
$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 200803
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
303 AM EST Fri Dec 20 2024

Valid 12Z Fri Dec 20 2024 - 12Z Mon Dec 23 2024

...Great Lakes...
Day 1...

The gradually weakening clipper system will track across the Lower
Great Lakes this morning with lingering periods of snow across
much of the region, although most totals will be on the light side.
As the storm tracks east towards the Mid-Atlantic, northerly winds
will accelerate over Lakes Superior, Michigan, and Huron and lead
to a handful of lake-effect streamers containing occasional bursts
of heavy snow on Friday. Latest WPC probabilities show low chances
(10-20%) for snowfall totals >4" in parts of northwest Indiana,
near Traverse City, MI, and along the coastal areas of Michigan's
thumb. Otherwise, additional snowfall totals will generally hover
around 1-3" in parts of Michigan, Indiana, and western Ohio.

...Central Appalachians to Northeast....
Days 1-2...

As the remnant circulation of the weakening clipper system
approaches the central Appalachians, its residual moisture will
flow directly into the mountain range Friday evening. By Friday
night, as low pressure off the East Coast deepens and high pressure
builds in from the north, low-level NW winds will be favorably
oriented into the Central Appalachians with some periods of snow as
far south as the Smokeys. Upslope ascent will continue into the
central Appalachians through Friday night and gradually taper off
by Saturday afternoon. Snowfall totals in east-central WV will
likely range between 1-4" with localized totals up to 6" possible
in the tallest peaks of the WV Appalachians and the Smokeys.

Farther east, an area of low pressure will organize along a
strengthening frontal boundary off the East Coast this morning.
This low will strengthen as low-level WAA to its north and a jet
streak couplet takes shape over the Gulf Stream. Meanwhile, broad
upper level divergence out ahead of the 250-500mb mean trough axis
will supply sufficient ascent aloft in tandem with the residual
moisture from the clipper system to support periods of snow over
northern PA and western NY. Colder temperatures aloft supporting
higher SLRs will also support As the low off the East Coast
deepens, easterly flow is expected to strengthen and a low level
convergence trough will setup over the northern Mid-Atlantic coast.
Latest CAMs guidance is keying on this convergence boundary
setting up over the Delaware Valley and stretching north into the
Poconos. WPC probabilities do show moderate chances (40-60%) for
snowfall >4" in parts of the Poconos, while there are low-to-
moderate chances (30-50%) for snowfall >2" in parts of the Lehigh
Valley, Delaware Valley, and into northern New Jersey. Localized
amounts in the highest elevations of the Poconos have low chances
(10-20%) for snowfall amounts topping 6". There is a chance for
minor accumulations (coating-2") along I-95 from the Philadelphia
metro on north through the NYC and Tri-State metro regions this afternoon

Coastal New England sports the higher "boom" scenarios given the
combination of ocean-enhanced snowfall over eastern MA Friday
afternoon and the deformation axis of the coastal storm extending
far enough west to produce heavy snow over Downeast Maine Friday
night into early morning Saturday. Latest guidance is starting to
come into better agreement with a swath of 1-3" of snowfall over
eastern MA with some CAMs suggesting higher end totals (>4") within
the range of possibilities. Downeast Maine could feature the
heaviest snowfall for the event in coastal New England with WPC
probabilities showing moderate-to-high chances (50-70%) for
snowfall >4" through Saturday morning.

...Pacific Northwest...
Days 2-3...

A pair of Pacific storm systems will bring rounds of high
elevation mountain snow to the Olympics, Cascades, Blue, and
Sawtooth Mountains this weekend. Snow levels will generally be as
low as 4,000ft in the Cascades, but the heavier snowfall totals

6") will likely be confined to elevations >5,000ft in the

Olympics and Cascades. In the Blue and Sawtooth Mountains, >6"
snowfall totals will likely be confined to elevations >6,000ft.
These heavier totals will generally be above pass level in these
mountain ranges, so expect the more hazardous travel impacts to be
in the more remote and complex terrain of these mountain ranges
this weekend.


The probabilities for significant ice accumulations are less than
10 percent.

Mullinax
$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 210737
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
237 AM EST Sat Dec 21 2024

Valid 12Z Sat Dec 21 2024 - 12Z Tue Dec 24 2024

...Northeast...
Day 1...

Periods of snow on the backside of a departing winter storm
heading for Nova Scotia is expected to linger over Downeast Maine through Saturday morning before finally concluding Saturday afternoon. WPC probabilities show low chances (10-30%) for additional snowfall
totals >2" through Saturday morning. Farther west, cyclonic flow
over the Great Lakes will keep some lake-enhanced bands lingering
through the day with additional snowfall amounts of 1-3" expected
in parts of northeast OH, near the Finger Lakes of NY, and as far
south as the central Appalachians. Snow showers will taper off by
Saturday evening as high pressure builds in from the west.

...Pacific Northwest & Northern Rockies...
Days 1-3...

A trio of Pacific storm systems will escort rounds of Pacific
moisture into the Olympics and Cascades into early next week. Some
of this moisture will spill over into the Northern Rockies. Snow
will generally be confined to the higher elevations of these
mountain ranges due to flood of Pacific air infiltrating much of
western North America and keeping any frigid Canadian air-mass
intrusions at bay. For the Olympics and Cascades, the heaviest
snowfall is likely to be located at/above 4,500ft in elevation. The
first storm system arrives Saturday morning with locally heavy
snowfall possible as far south as the tallest peaks of northern
California. The heaviest snowfall from this event for the Cascades,
Olympics, and Blue Mountains comes Saturday afternoon and tapers
off Saturday night thanks to the storm's progressive movement.
Following a brief break Sunday morning, the next round of snowfall
arrives Sunday afternoon in the Cascades with the heaviest
snowfall occurring Sunday night. Then, following another break
during the day Monday as high pressure briefly builds in, snow
returns to the Olympics and Cascades Monday night. Guidance
suggests sharper height falls aloft and a weak CAD signature in
the Columbia Basin that may result in lower elevations snow/ice
east of the Cascades. Through 12Z Tuesday, WPC probabilities show
high chances (>70%) for snowfall >8" in elevations >5,000ft in
parts of the Olympics, Cascades, and as far east as the Blue Mountains.

Some of this Pacific moisture will also result in high elevation
snow in parts of the Bitterroots, Sawtooth, Boise, Absaroka, Lewis, and
Teton Mountains. Of the ranges referenced, the Sawtooth and Teton
Ranges above 7,000ft feature moderate-to-high chances (50-70%) for
snowfall totals >8" through early Tuesday morning.


...Northern Plains to the Great Lakes...
Days 2-3...

The first in a series of Pacific Northwest storm systems will make
its way into Montana while the divergent left-exit region of a
110kt 250mb jet streak moves in over the Northern Plains. Southerly
flow at the lowest levels of atmosphere will intersect a frontal
boundary that gives way to weak vertical ascent over parts of North
Dakota and central Minnesota. The moisture source and DGZ aloft is
marginal, while 850mb temps rise >0C despite surface temps
remaining below freezing. This should lead to light icing
accumulations from northeast Montana and northern North Dakota to
central Minnesota Sunday afternoon and into Sunday night.

By Monday morning, a more consolidated surface low will form in
the Upper Mississippi Valley at the same time 925-850mb moisture
(with origins out of the Gulf of Mexico) streams into the Great
Lakes. 850mb WAA over a boundary layer air-mass that is cold and
quite dry will support wet-bulb temperatures that support mostly
snow from the Michigan U.P. to the northern half of Michigan's
Mitten. Broad 250-500mb troughing will also provide adequate lift
atop the atmosphere, giving rise to a more solid shield of
snowfall over the region. WPC probabilities show moderate chances
(40-60%) for snowfall totals >4" in the far northern portions of
Michigan's Mitten and in the eastern-most areas of Michigan's U.P.
In fact, there are some low-chance probabilities (10-30%) for
localized amounts >8" in the eastern Michigan U.P.

This same moisture source, synoptic-scale forcing, and isentropic
glide will translate over the eastern Great Lakes Monday night
with potentially 1-3" of snowfall along the Chautauqua Ridge and
along the Tug Hill. Localized amounts could top 4" along the Tug
Hill where some upslope enhancement would allow for slightly
heavier snowfall rates and thus higher totals than their neighbors
in western NY through Tuesday AM.


The probabilities for significant ice accumulations are less than
10 percent.

Mullinax
$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 220800
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EST Sun Dec 22 2024

Valid 12Z Sun Dec 22 2024 - 12Z Wed Dec 25 2024

...California, Pacific Northwest, & Intermountain West...
Days 1-3...

A pair of atmospheric rivers (AR) are going to make for an active
multi-day stretch of weather from California on north through the
Northwest and into the Rockies. The first AR arrives Sunday
afternoon, which NAEFS shows will top 750 kg/m/s off the Oregon
coast Sunday morning, will weaken on approach but still deliver

90th climatological percentile precipitable water values into the

northwestern U.S.. This AR will neither be accompanied by an
unusually cold air-mass, nor will it be directed at a continental
polar air-mass over the Northwest. Snow levels will initially be
as low as 4,000ft in the Cascades and Olympics, but rise to above
5,000ft by Sunday night as WAA increases aloft. This same streams
of moisture will advance inland through the Northern Rockies Sunday
night and into Monday with locally heavier snowfall possible in the

5,000ft peaks of the Blue Mountains, above 7,000ft in the Salmon

River and Sawtooth Mountains of Idaho, and the Tetons in Wyoming.
The peaks of the Tetons above 8,000ft sport moderate-to-high
chances (50-70%) for snowfall totals >6", while the Blue, Salmon
River, and Sawtooth show similar probabilities for >4" through
Monday evening.

By Monday afternoon, the next AR is already getting ready to strike
the Pacific Northwest coastline, but this AR is noticeably stronger
than the one arriving late Sunday. NAEFS shows a larger 750 kg/m/s
fetch (above the 99th climatological percentile off the northern
CA coast) with origins stemming out of the subtropical Pacific. The
initial round of precipitation arriving Monday evening will be
primarily rain in western OR and northern CA (snow levels as high
as 7,000ft), but snow will be most likely in the Cascades and Blue
Mountains. By Tuesday morning, sharper height falls from the
approaching upper trough will force snow levels to drop to as low
as 4,000ft in the Cascades, Olympics, and Blue, while farther
south, snow levels fall to ~5,000ft in the CA ranges and northern
Great Basin. Unlike Sunday's AR, Tuesday's AR will have a higher
longevity with >90th climatological percentile IVTs extending as
far inland as the Wasatch and on south to the Mogollon Rim Tuesday
night. Mountain snow will be common throughout much of the
Intermountain West Tuesday night with heavy snow advancing into the
Tetons, Uinta, and Wasatch by early Wednesday morning.

WPC probabilities depict high chances (>70%) for snowfall >6" for
the central Sierra Nevada above 7,000ft. Farther north, moderate
chances (40-60%) for snowfall >4" are shown in the higher terrain
of the Blue, Salmon River, and Sawtooth ranges. Lastly, the Wasatch
and Tetons show low chances (10-30%) for snowfall >4" above
8,000ft through 12Z Wednesday, but additional snowfall is possible
Wednesday afternoon. In total through 12Z Wednesday, there are high
chances (>70%) for snowfall totals >12" for elevations above
5,000ft in the Cascades, while similar high chance probabilities
for >8" of snow are present in the Blue, Salmon River, Sawtooth,
Tetons, and central Sierra Nevada.


...Northern Plains, Great Lakes, to Northeast...
Days 1-3...

A progressive 500mb shortwave trough over western Montana this
morning will be the catalyst for the next winter storm to track
through the Midwest today, the Great Lakes on Monday, and the
Northeast Monday night into Tuesday morning. The initial wave of
low pressure will be quite weak on Sunday, but modest upper level
ascent aided by a 110kt 250mb jet streak's left-exit region over
the Northern Plains. In addition, the moisture source and DGZ are
marginal while low level temperatures above the surface are >0C.
This is an icy wintry mix setup from northeast Montana through
central North Dakota and into central Minnesota Sunday and into
Sunday night. WPC probabilities shows moderate-to-high chances for
ice accumulations >0.01" for much of central North Dakota. The
potential for light icing extends as far east as eastern Wisconsin,
northern Illinois, southern Michigan, and northern Indiana by
Monday morning.

Monday morning is when the storm system tracking through the Great
Lakes becomes more organized, while at the same time generating a

300 kg/m/s IVT (>90th climatological percentile values via NAEFS)

oriented at Michigan and the eastern Great Lakes. An expansive
area of 850-700mb WAA over a boundary layer air-mass that remains
quite cold and dry allows wet- bulb temperatures to support snow
being the primary precipitation type for much of Michigan's Mitten
and the eastern Michigan U.P.. Combined with excellent upper level
divergence courtesy of a broad 250-500mb trough to the west, and
there is likely to be a swath of heavy snow over northern Michigan
and the far eastern Michigan U.P.. Residents in souther Michigan
should anticipate some wintry precipitation, although it remains
unclear if snow or a wintry mix (causing light ice accumulations
in the process) will be dominant precipitation types. Latest WPC
probabilities show moderate-to-high chances (50-70%) for snowfall
totals >4"in northern Michigan and over the thumb of Michigan,
while some parts of northern Michigan also have moderate chances
(40-60%) for localized totals surpassing 6" through Monday afternoon.

This same storm system will direct its anomalous moisture source
and modest low-level WAA into the Northeast Monday night.
Sufficient upper-level divergence provides support for the healthy
shield of precipitation throughout the region, while the air-mass
remains quite cold and dry ahead of the storm (temps in the teens,
dew points in the single digits). Higher SLRs of 12-16:1 are
anticipated in these areas and the ground is very cold, which
combined with the event occurring at night, will maximize snowfall
accumulation potential. The storm races off over Nova Scotia by
midday Tuesday and snowfall should taper off by Tuesday afternoon.
WPC probabilities do show moderate-chance probabilities (40-60%)
for snowfall >4" in parts of northern NY (including the Tug Hill)
and in the tallest peaks of the Green mountains. Should guidance
continue to trend wetter, it is possible for an increase in
snowfall amounts in subsequent forecast. Downeast Maine also sports
similar moderate-chance probabilities for >4" of snowfall through
Tuesday morning. For those affected areas listed above, the WSSI-P
does sport moderate-chance probabilities (40-60%) for Minor Impacts
from northern Michigan and northern NY to Downeast Maine.

Mullinax
$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 222036
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
336 PM EST Sun Dec 22 2024

Valid 00Z Mon Dec 23 2024 - 00Z Thu Dec 26 2024

...California, Pacific Northwest, & Intermountain West...
Days 1-3...

As the first of a pair of atmospheric rivers (AR) causing active
weather continues moving ashore in northern CA, OR, and WA,
significant precipitation associated therewith should diminish into
tonight as the moisture plume shears apart over the interior
Pacific Northwest. GEFS integrated vapor transport (IVT) analysis
shows this first AR has topped at about 600 kg/m/s off the Oregon
coast this morning. This AR will neither be accompanied by an
unusually cold air-mass, nor will it be directed at a continental
polar air-mass over the Northwest. Snow levels are currently over
7,000ft as per 18Z NBM analysis from the Cascades west. As the
precipitation moves inland, snow levels will remain above 6,000 ft
into Idaho and the interior Northwest. These very high snow levels
will confine any significant snowfall through Monday evening to the
highest peaks of the northern Washington Cascades and the Blue,
Salmon River, Tetons, and Sawtooth Ranges. The peaks of the Tetons
above 8,000ft sport moderate- to- high chances (50-70%) for
snowfall totals >6", while the Blue, Salmon River, and Sawtooth
show similar probabilities for >4" through Monday evening.

By Monday afternoon, the next AR will be moving into the Pacific
Northwest coastline, especially northern California. This AR is
noticeably stronger than the one moving ashore now. NAEFS shows a
larger 750 kg/m/s fetch (above the 99th climatological percentile
off the northern CA coast) with origins stemming out of the
subtropical Pacific. The initial round of precipitation arriving
Monday evening will be primarily rain in western OR and northern CA
(snow levels as high as 7,000ft), but snow will be most likely in
the Cascades and Blue Mountains. By Tuesday morning, sharper height
falls from the approaching upper trough will force snow levels to
drop to as low as 4,000ft in the Cascades, Olympics, and Blue,
while farther south, snow levels fall to ~5,000ft in the CA ranges
and northern Great Basin. Unlike today's AR, Tuesday's AR will
have a higher longevity with >90th climatological percentile IVTs
extending as far inland as the Wasatch and on south to the Mogollon
Rim Tuesday night. Mountain snow will be common throughout much of
the Intermountain West Tuesday night with heavy snow advancing
into the Tetons, Uinta, and Wasatch by early Wednesday morning.

WPC probabilities depict high chances (>70%) for snowfall >6" for
the central Sierra Nevada above 7,000ft. Farther north, moderate
chances (40-60%) for snowfall >4" are shown in the higher terrain
of the Blue, Salmon River, and Sawtooth ranges. Lastly, the Wasatch
and Tetons show low chances (10-30%) for snowfall >4" above
8,000ft through 12Z Wednesday, but additional snowfall is possible
Wednesday afternoon. In total through 12Z Wednesday, there are high
chances (>70%) for snowfall totals >12" for elevations above
5,000ft in the Cascades, while similar high chance probabilities
for >8" of snow are present in the Blue, Salmon River, Sawtooth,
Tetons, and central Sierra Nevada. Snow will continue into Utah and
Colorado through the day on Wednesday with a 30-50% chance of 3-6
inches of snow through Wednesday night.


...Northern Plains, Great Lakes, to Northeast...
Days 1-3...

A progressive 500mb shortwave trough over western Montana this
morning will be the catalyst for the next winter storm to track
through the Great Lakes on Monday and the Northeast Monday night
into Tuesday morning. The initial wave of low pressure is quite
weak, with modest upper level ascent aided by a 110kt 250mb jet
streak's left-exit region over the Northern Plains. In addition,
the moisture source and DGZ are marginal while low level
temperatures above the surface are above freezing. This is an icy
wintry mix setup from northeast Montana through central North
Dakota and into central Minnesota into tonight. WPC probabilities
shows moderate-to-high chances for ice accumulations >0.01" for
much of west-central North Dakota. The potential for light icing
extends as far east as eastern Wisconsin, northern Illinois,
southern Michigan, and northern Indiana by Monday morning.

Monday morning is when the storm system tracking through the Great
Lakes becomes more organized, while at the same time generating a

300 kg/m/s IVT (>90th climatological percentile values via NAEFS)

oriented at Michigan and the eastern Great Lakes. An expansive
area of 850-700mb WAA over a boundary layer air-mass that remains
quite cold and dry allows wet- bulb temperatures to support snow
being the primary precipitation type for much of Michigan's Mitten
and the eastern Michigan U.P.. Combined with excellent upper level
divergence courtesy of a broad 250-500mb trough to the west, and
there is likely to be a swath of heavy snow over northern Michigan
and the far eastern Michigan U.P.. Residents in southern Michigan
should anticipate some wintry precipitation, although it remains
unclear if snow or a wintry mix (causing light ice accumulations
in the process) will be dominant precipitation types. The latest
WPC probabilities show high chances (70-90%) for snowfall totals

4" in northern Michigan and over the thumb of Michigan, while some

parts of northern Michigan also have moderate chances (40-60%) for
localized totals surpassing 6" through Monday afternoon.

This same storm system will direct its anomalous moisture source
and modest low-level WAA into the Northeast Monday night.
Sufficient upper-level divergence provides support for the healthy
shield of precipitation throughout the region, while the air-mass
remains quite cold and dry ahead of the storm (temps in the teens,
dew points in the single digits). Higher SLRs of 12-16:1 are
anticipated in these areas and the ground is very cold, which
combined with the event occurring at night, will maximize snowfall
accumulation potential. The storm races off over Nova Scotia by
midday Tuesday and snowfall should taper off by Tuesday afternoon.
WPC probabilities show moderate-chance probabilities (40-60%) for
snowfall >4" in parts of northern NY (including the Tug Hill) and
in the tallest peaks of the Green mountains. Should guidance
continue to trend wetter, it is possible for an increase in
snowfall amounts in subsequent forecast. Downeast Maine also sports
similar moderate-chance probabilities for >4" of snowfall through
Tuesday morning. For those affected areas listed above, the WSSI-P
does sport moderate-chance probabilities (40-60%) for Minor Impacts
from northern Michigan and northern NY to Downeast Maine.

Wegman/Mullinax
$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 230757
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
257 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2024

Valid 12Z Mon Dec 23 2024 - 12Z Thu Dec 26 2024

...The West...
Days 1-3...

An active pattern continues this week with mountain snow expected
from the West Coast mountain ranges to both the Northern and
Central Rockies. This stormy pattern in the short range is due to
three atmospheric rivers (ARs) bringing plume after plume of
Pacific moisture into the western U.S.. The first AR will gradually
weaken throughout the remainder of the day, but residual Pacific
moisture and a lack of a meaningfully cold air will keep most
heavy snowfall in the Northern Rockies above 7,000ft. Snow should
taper off over the Northern Rockies by Monday evening.

The second AR arrives Monday evening with IVT values topping 1,000
kg/m/s off the Oregon coast and moisture origins stemming out of
the subtropical Pacific. The initial round of precipitation
arriving Monday afternoon will be primarily rain in northern CA,
western OR, and western WA as snow levels in the OR Cascades are as
high as 8,000ft and even topping 9,000ft in northern CA. The
Cascades and Blue Mountains will have the better odds of staying
mostly snow above 5,000ft. By Tuesday morning, sharper 700-500mb
height falls from the approaching upper trough will force snow
levels to drop as low as 3,000ft at pass level in the WA Cascades
and below 6,000ft in the Sierra Nevada by Tuesday afternoon. The
Sierra Nevada have the best odds for an impactful snowfall event
with the Winter Storm Outlooks now sporting 50% odds of snowfall
exceeding warning criteria for elevations >7,000ft. Periods of
high elevation snow in the Great Basin and Wasatch are likely
Tuesday night but heavier accumulations (>4") will be mostly
confined to elevations at/above 8,000ft. Through 12Z Wednesday, WPC probabilities show moderate-to-high chances (50-70%) for snowfall

8" above 7,000ft in the Sierra Nevada, above 5,000ft in the Cascades/Olympics/Blue Mountains, and above 8,000ft in the Tetons.

The third and more expansive AR arrives Wednesday as a powerful
sub-960mb low tracks towards the British Columbia coast. NAEFS
shows this AR with moisture origins northwest of Hawaii that will
be directed at the Pacific Northwest, including IVT values topping
the 97.5 climatological percentile. Unlike the first pair of ARs,
this one will have a slightly colder air-mass to work with at the
onset while mean 700-300mb winds out of the WSW are better aligned
orthogonally to enhance upslope ascent into the Olympics and
Cascades. This is a recipe for heavy/wet snow in the Olympics and
Cascades Wednesday afternoon and into Wednesday night. Latest WPC
probabilities show high chances (>70%) for >8" of snowfall for
elevations >3,000ft, and similar chances for >12" of snowfall
above 5,000ft. The WSSI-P does show 50-70% odds for Moderate
Impacts in these ranges through Thursday AM, which would include
some of the WA Cascade passes.


...Northern Plains, Great Lakes, to Northeast...
Days 1-2...

A positively tilted 250-500mb trough over the Midwest this morning
is providing sufficient upper-level ascent over the Great Lakes and
supporting a weak area of low pressure tracking towards southern
Wisconsin. Broad 850mb WAA and 290K isentropic glide via SWrly flow
will introduce a slug of Gulf of Mexico moisture (embedded within a

300 kg/m/s IVT) into the region which maintains sub-freezing

boundary layer temperatures as the precipitation arrives. This
will result in periods of snow on the north side of the low that
stretches from southeast MN and central WI to northern MI today and
into tonight. WPC probabilities show moderate-to-high chances
(50-70%) for snowfall totals >4" across the northern tier of
Michigan's Mitten with low chances (10-30%) or >6". Some light
icing is possible in parts of southeast MN, western WI, southern
MI, and northern IN where there are moderate-to-high chances
(50-70%) for ice accumulations >0.01". With ground temperatures so
cold, even minor amounts <0.1" can cause slick conditions on roadways.

As the storm heads east Monday night, storm system will direct its
anomalous moisture source and modest low-level WAA into the
Northeast. Modest upper-level divergence in the form of a
strengthening 250mb jet streak aloft provides support for the
healthy shield of precipitation throughout the region, while the
air-mass remains quite cold and dry ahead of the storm (temps in
the teens,single-digit dew points). Higher SLRs of 12-16:1 are
anticipated in these areas and soil temperatures are near freezing,
which combined with the event occurring at night, will maximize
snowfall accumulation potential. The storm races off over Nova
Scotia by midday Tuesday and snowfall should taper off by Tuesday
afternoon. WPC probabilities show moderate-chance probabilities
(40-60%) for snowfall >6" in parts of northern NY (including the
Tug Hill) and in the tallest peaks of the Green and White
Mountains. These mountain ranges are favored for the heaviest
snowfall given the added help of upslope flow. Downeast Maine
sports moderate-chance probabilities for >6" of snowfall through
Tuesday morning. For those affected areas listed above, the WSSI-P
has increased its chances for Minor Impacts to moderate-to-high
chances (50-70%) from northern MI on east through northern NY and
into northern New England.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Day 2...

Residents in the Mid-Atlantic will want to monitor the forecast
closely Tuesday morning as the same tongue of moisture bringing
snow to the Northeast could bring a swath of light snow and/or
wintry mix from the central Appalachians to the New Jersey Shore.
Soils temperatures are close to freezing and light ice or snow
accumulations could make for slick travel conditions Christmas Eve
morning. WPC probabilities do show some low chance probabilities
(10-30%) for ice accumulations >0.01" in parts of the DC,
Baltimore, and Philadelphia metropolitan areas Tuesday morning.
Odds of >0.01" ice accumulations (low-to-moderate chances, or
30-50%) are greater to the west of these cities in parts of
northern MD, southeast PA, and the central Appalachians.

Mullinax
$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 261945
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
245 PM EST Thu Dec 26 2024

Valid 00Z Fri Dec 27 2024 - 00Z Mon Dec 30 2024

...The West... Days 1-3...

Widespread active weather to impact the Pacific and Interior
Northwest through the weekend.

Broad troughing centered south of Alaska will shed periodic
shortwave energy eastward towards the Pacific Coast through the
weekend, although accompanying surface lows are progged to remain
north into Canada. This will result in a pattern which features
impressively convergent flow coming eastward from the Pacific,
leading to rounds of elevated IVT as period atmospheric rivers (AR)
surge onshore. This moisture combined with strong jet streaks aloft
will result in widespread heavy precipitation across much of the
Pacific and Interior Northwest, with precipitation spreading as far
south as the Sierra, and as far east as the Central Rockies, at times.

The first wave will move onshore late Thursday night into Friday
morning as the low pressure lifting into British Columbia pushes a
warm front eastward and into OR/WA. The accompanying moist
advection will push IVT above the 99th percentile according to the
CFRS climatology, highest into the Great Basin, but the northern
periphery of >90th percentile IVT will lift into OR/ID, and GEFS
IVT probabilities for 500 kg/m/s peak above 50% even as far east as
the Foothills. The overlap of moisture with ascent (aided by
transient LFQ jet level diffluence and periods of upslope in N-S or
NW/SE terrain features) will result in widespread precipitation D1
from the Sierra and coastal OR through the Great Basin and into the
Central Rockies. Snow levels in the highest IVT core will reach
5000-6000 ft, but remain around 3000-4000 ft farther north, leading
to at least modest winter impacts at the Passes. WPC probabilities
D1 for more than 8 inches of snow are high (70-90%) for parts of
the Sierra, OR Cascades, Blue Mountains, Salmon River/Sawtooth
region, Uintas, Tetons, and into the Park Range of CO. Locally 1-2
feet is likely in the highest terrain.

A second, somewhat weaker, impulse will follow immediately in the
wake of this first wave and lift northeast into British Columbia
once again, with the attendant warm front and accompanying
warm/moist advection lifting into WA/OR late Friday night into
Saturday. Once again, enhanced ascent through jet streak will help
expand moisture, with upslope flow driving the most intense
precipitation into the Cascades and farther east in the Salmon
River/Sawtooth Ranges. Snow levels with this second wave will be
slightly higher than the first, around 8000 ft across CA/Great
Basin, and 4000-6000 ft as far north as the WA Cascades. Heavy snow
is likely once again above these levels, and in some places farther
east into ID/MT/WY snow intensity may decrease between the two
waves, but will never really shut off. Current D2 WPC probabilities
are high (70-90%) for more than 8 inches again from the WA
Cascades, into the Northern Rockies, and across the Tetons.

Yet a third wave in this persistent confluent onshore flow will
push onshore Saturday night and Sunday as a more pronounced
shortwave trough digs eastward and comes onshore near the OR/WA
coast at the end of the forecast period. This will again be
accompanied by onshore flow and enhanced IVT, but mesoscale forcing
for ascent may be a bit more robust Sunday as a warm front stalls
in the vicinity beneath the favorable LFQ of a more potent stream.
The axis of higher moisture is more restrictive this day as NAEFS
PWs above the 97.5 percentile are in a narrow channel from OR to
UT, but this is also where some enhanced fgen may occur through the
favorable overlap of low-level WAA and upper level diffluence.
Uncertainty is considerable in the placement of this corridor, but
another round of heavy snow is likely above generally 4000-6000 ft
on Sunday. WPC probabilities D3 are above 70% for 8 inches D3
across the spine of the Cascades, into the Salmon River/Sawtooth
region, Blue Mountains, and continue in the vicinity of
Yellowstone NP. 3-day total snowfall of 3-5 feet is possible in the
hied terrain of the Cascades and Tetons.

...Interior Mid-Atlantic and Northeast... Days 2-3...

A shortwave rotating through the base of an elongated trough
positioned from the Northern Rockies through the Ohio Valley will
lift northeast into the Great Lakes Friday night into Saturday
morning while a surface high pressure sits south of New England.
The confluent flow between these two features will surge a plume of
moisture northward on 300K isentropic ascent leading to PW
anomalies as high as +2 sigma according to NAEFS from the Central
Appalachians through the northern Mid-Atlantic. The surface high
will slowly retreat during this period, but cold air at the surface
will at least initially be trapped leading to some light freezing
rain accumulations. WPC probabilities for 0.1" or more are 10-30%,
focused in the Catskills and southern Adirondacks, but light icing
accumulating to above 0.01" may impact much of PA, Upstate NY, and
southern New England.

After a brief break in precipitation, a more significant wave of
low pressure will develop across the Ozarks Saturday evening in
response to a potent shortwave trough digging through the primary
trough axis from the Central Plains. This shortwave will gradually
weaken into D3 as it encounters mid-level ridging across the
eastern CONUS, but a favorably placed jet streak will leave
sufficient diffluence through the RRQ to allow slow deepening of
the surface wave as it moves into the eastern Great Lakes and then
Ontario Province by the end of the forecast period. To the east of
this low, precipitation will expand on renewed WAA, while subtle
wedging of the retreating high clings across northern PA, Upstate
NY, and northern New England. Eventually all of the precipitation
should turn to rain as WAA overwhelms the column, but a period of
icing is likely before that time, leading to at least modest
accumulations of ice. Some of the recent WSE plumes are quite
aggressive across NH/ME, so there is potential for heavier icing,
but at this time the WPC probabilities for 0.1" or more are capped
at 30-50% in central ME.

Weiss
$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 270849
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
349 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024

Valid 12Z Fri Dec 27 2024 - 12Z Mon Dec 30 2024

...The West...
Days 1-3...

Prolonged winter weather impacts for terrain in the Pacific and
Interior Northwest persist through the weekend.

Broad troughing centered south of Alaska will continue to shed
shortwave energy through the Northwest through Saturday night
before the trough axis swings inland on Sunday. Convergent flow off
the Pacific is featured ahead of the main trough axis, leading to
rounds of elevated IVT as periodic atmospheric rivers (AR) surge
onshore. This moisture combined with powerful jet streaks aloft
will result in widespread heavy precipitation across much of the
Pacific and Interior Northwest, with the Sunday trough axis
spreading precip down to the central Sierra Nevada.

An ongoing wave will cross the OR coast early this morning with a
notable moisture surge crossing the Great Basin and lifting over
the north-central Rockies into this evening. Snow levels around 6000
ft are expected over NV/UT/CO, around 5000 ft in ID, and remain
around 3000-4000 ft in the Cascades, allowing at least modest
winter impacts at the most passes. WPC probabilities for >6" on Day
1 are high (70-90%) for the higher WA/OR Cascades, Blue Mountains,
Salmon River/Sawtooths, Wasatch, Uintas, Tetons, and into the Park
Range of CO. An additional 18" are likely in the highest terrain.

The next vort lobe arrives into the PacNW coast this evening which
is south of the surface low track into Vancouver Island and under a
150+ kt Wly jet streak. Enhanced ascent from jet streak will help
expand moisture, with upslope flow driving the most intense
precipitation into the Cascades and farther east in the Salmon
River/Sawtooth Ranges. Snow levels rise with this moisture surge
are generally 4000-6000 ft in the Cascades and the north-central
Rockies. Heavy snow is expected in terrain with Day 2 snow
probabilities for >8" 50-90% in the OR/WA Cascades, Salmon
River/Sawtooths and Tetons south through the Wasatch.

Confluent onshore flow with moderate to locally heavy precip
continues to push onshore until the trough passage Sunday
afternoon. Mesoscale forcing for ascent will be more robust Sunday
with the trough axis passage with snow levels generally around
3000 ft in WA with a baroclinic zone across OR where snow levels
should quickly rise to around 6000 ft. Day 3 WPC probabilities
are above 70% for >8" along the spine of the Cascades, yet again
through the Salmon River/Sawtooths, Blue Mountains, expand up
through the Bitterroots and Tetons south through the southern
Absarokas into west-central WY.
Additional 3-day total snowfall of 3-5 feet is likely in the higher
terrain of the Cascades, Sawtooths, and Tetons.


...Central Appalachians and Northeast...
Days 1-3...

A pair of lows tracking up through the Great Lakes today through
Sunday will bring some freezing rain risk to the Northeast late
tonight and again Sunday night. Surface cold air will be initially
be trapped leading to some light freezing rain accumulations. Day
1.5 WPC ice for >0.1" around around 10% from the Poconos to the
southern Adirondacks with Day 2 up to 10% in south-central NH.

After a brief break in precipitation, a more significant wave of
low pressure will develop across the Ozarks Saturday evening in
response to a potent shortwave trough digging through the primary
trough axis from the Central Plains. A favorably placed jet streak
will leave sufficient diffluence through the right entrance region
to allow deepening of the surface wave as it moves into the
eastern Great Lakes Sunday night. To the east of this low,
precipitation will expand on renewed WAA, while subtle wedging of
the retreating high clings across northern PA, Upstate NY, and
northern New England. Eventually all of the precipitation should
turn to rain as WAA overwhelms the column, but a period of icing is
likely before that time, leading to at least modest accumulations
of ice, particularly over areas with frozen ground. Day 3 ice probs
for >0.1" are only up to 5% in central Maine - will see if these
probabilities continue to trend down in the coming forecast cycles.


Jackson
$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 280917
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
417 AM EST Sat Dec 28 2024

Valid 12Z Sat Dec 28 2024 - 12Z Tue Dec 31 2024


...The West...
Days 1-3...

Ongoing wintry precipitation over the Northwest and northern
Rockies terrain into Monday before tapering off for at least a
day.

Broad ridging over the eastern Pacific and trough over the Gulf of
Alaska drive impressively confluent and zonal flow with embedded
impulses into the Northwest through tonight before a notable trough
pushes ashore Sunday and tracks over the northern Rockies through
Sunday night. At atmospheric river centered along and south of the
jet maximum and its associated high snow levels (6000-8000ft) will
shift north from CA through OR today/tonight while snow levels
remain lower over WA (around 4000ft). Day 1 snow probs are 50-90%
for the CA and OR Cascades with most WA passes impacted. Moisture
already farther inland will continue to produce heavy snow in
terrain over the Rockies from northern CO through northern
UT/western WY, central ID, and western MT where Day 1 snow probs
for >8" are 50-90%.

The base of the trough/vort max digs south to the far northern CA
coast by Sunday morning. This will surge heavy precip up the PacNW
which will be accompanied by rapidly falling snow levels under the
trough, creating a heavy snow situation for much of the Cascades
Sunday. Snow levels drop below 4000ft Sunday afternoon in OR and
3500ft in WA. Day 2 snow probs for >8" are 60-90% along the extent
of the Cascades.

The AR surge inland means increasing snow levels Sunday over the
northern Rockies with values generally 6000ft in central ID before
dropping to around 4000ft Sunday evening before ridging cuts off
precip late Sunday night. Day 2 snow probs over the northern
Rockies are 60-90% for >8" in the Bitterroots, Salmon
River/Sawtooths, and around Yellowstone including the Red Lodge and
Tetons down toward the Wind River.

Moisture will get shunted east of the Northern Rockies late Sunday
night into Monday though high pressure building south from the lee
of the Canadian Rockies will maintain snow in and around Glacier
NP. Day 3 snow probs for >8" are 60-80% there. A much needed break
looks to last 24-36 hours over the rest of the Northwest on Monday.


...Mid-Atlantic and Northeast...
Days 1-2...

Pockets of light icing persist this morning over interior sections
of the northern Mid-Atlantic and interior New England. Freezing
drizzle is a concern tonight for portions of inland Maine. Further
light icing is possible over northern Maine Sunday night ahead of
the next system tracking up the Great Lakes. These icing totals are
expected to stay below a tenth inch.


...North-Central Plains...
Day 3...

The powerful trough that shifts over the Pacific Northwest coast
Sunday will dive ESE on a 150kt jet and reach southern KS by
Monday, pushing into MO that evening. This will produce an
efficient overlap of height falls and diffluence atop a warm front
to drive sfc cyclogenesis over northern OK into northern AR. Warm
and moist advection ahead will lift into a modest TROWAL, providing
support for ascent and a somewhat narrow swath of snow from
northeast WY and along the SD/Neb border before tracking into less
favorable thermals over IA Monday night. Day 3 snow probs for >4"
are around 50% for the Black Hills and around 20% for much of SD.
There is latitudinal differences in guidance with the 00Z ECMWF/GFS
farther south/more into Neb than the farther north (and heavier)
Canadian.

Jackson
$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 290840
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
340 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

Valid 12Z Sun Dec 29 2024 - 12Z Wed Jan 01 2025

...The West...
Days 1-2...

Strong trough with the base over far northern CA reaches the
Pacific Northwest this morning, sweeping east to the Great Basin by
this evening on a powerful 150kt zonal jet. The atmospheric river
going on ahead of the trough will be brought into focus up through
the OR Cascades today with height falls allowing snow levels to
drop to mountain passes such as Santiam by midday. Onshore flow and
cellular activity continues over the Cascades through tonight. Day
1 snow probs for >8" are 60-90% along the OR Cascades and 50-80%
for the WA Cascades, including around Snoqualmie Pass. The base of
the trough sends a strong plume of moisture down the northern/
central Sierra this afternoon with snow levels generally above 7000ft.

This afternoon through tonight, the jet will continue through the
Great Basin to the central Rockies, promoting broad lift on the
poleward exit region from ID to WY. Combined with favorable upslope
into the terrain, heavy mountain snow is again expected for the
central ID ranges into the Tetons/Yellowstone and SW MT where Day 1
snow probs for >12" are 50-80%. Monday morning through the
afternoon, height rises will spread east from the PacNW and produce
a welcome lull in activity through Tuesday.

Pacific Northwest...
Day 3...

Broad zonal flow below a Gulf of Alaska low reaches the PacNW coast
Tuesday night with light to moderate precip with snow levels
generally around 2000ft in WA and 3000ft in OR. Day 3.5 snow probs
(ending 00Z Thur) are generally 40-70% for >6" in the WA/OR Cascades.


...North-Central Plains...
Days 1-2...

Strong trough that pushes over the Pacific Northwest today rides a
150kt zonal jet over the CO Rockies early Monday while high
pressure builds south from the lee of the Canadian Rockies.
Convergence between this high and lee cyclogenesis over KS will
support an expanding area of precipitation over eastern MT and
northeast WY tonight where it is cold enough for snow and then
across western SD through central Neb Monday where temperatures
become increasingly marginal. A general swath of a quarter inch can
be expected through this path, but local enhancements from terrain
(like the Black Hills) and mesoscale banding will result in locally
heavy snow. Day 1.5 snow probs for >4" are splotchy along this path
with generally 20-50% probs from central MT through central SD and
the Pine Ridge of Nebraska (along with 80% probs in the Black
Hills). Those probs continue farther east over SD Day 2, but there
are still latitudinal differences with both the 00Z GFS and ECMWF
still being a bit farther south with accumulating snow over the
Nebraska Sandhills. Furthermore, the developing low over MO Monday
evening may allow some localized banding/dynamic cooling for snow
in southeast Neb/western IA, but it would be hard to overcome the
rather marginal thermals.


...Northeast...
Day 3...

The low tracking over KS/MO on Monday shifts east to the Mid-
Atlantic through Tuesday before shifting up the Northeastern
Seaboard Tuesday night. It's a progressive system, but with the
surface low translating to the coast around Long Island then
strengthening as it tracks northeast, there is a threat for banding
on the back side of the low. Marginal thermals, especially for the
end of the year, are present, but interior elevations in the
banding zone should see some snow accumulation. Please monitor this
storm which will affect New England through Wednesday and may
include some wintry mix in interior valleys.

Jackson
$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 300800
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EST Mon Dec 30 2024

Valid 12Z Mon Dec 30 2024 - 12Z Thu Jan 02 2025

...Pacific Northwest...
Days 1-3...

Onshore flow and a couple impulses of upper level energy will race
across the Pacific Northwest through the day today. While snow
levels will be dropping with cold advection, the amount of moisture
over the area will also lessen with time. Snow levels will drop to
between 2,000 and 6,000 ft from north to south, which may allow
for some light accumulations in the populated valleys. The jet
stream will shift southward with time, which will also gradually
lessen the forcing for snow across much of the higher elevations of
WA/OR/ID/MT from west to east through the day. Thus, the heaviest
snow for today will be over the next few hours of this morning,
with diminishing snow over most of the mountains by tonight.
Heavier snow may persist the longest near Glacier N.P. in
northwestern MT. Quiet weather (other than some light snow at the
highest peaks near Glacier N.P. and into Wyoming) will persist
through the day Tuesday.

The next front will move ashore and into the Cascades starting
Tuesday night. It will push across the Pacific Northwest through
Wednesday night. The heaviest snow through this period will be
through the WA and OR Cascades, where some of the highest peaks of
the southern WA and OR Cascades have an over 80% chance of seeing 4
inches or more of snow through Wednesday afternoon. Through the day
Wednesday snow will move inland, dropping additional higher
elevation shows into northern Idaho and northwest Montana.
Probabilities into ID and MT are between 30-60%, with the highest
probabilities near Glacier N.P.


...North-Central Plains...
Day 1...

A 500 mb shortwave trough riding the polar jet stream will combine
with the LFQ of a 140 kt jet to cause cyclogenesis across portions
of SD and NE today. North of the low center, an expanding
precipitation shield may feature localized bands of heavier snow,
especially over south-central SD through the day today. The surface
low will track southeastward with the progressive shortwave
trough, so any one location can expect a 6-12 hour window of snow
through tonight. The heaviest snow totals are likely in the Black
Hills today where WPC probabilities of snow totals over 4 inches
are over 80% and probabilities of totals over 8 inches are over
50%. This is largely due to the localized upslope expected on the
north facing slopes which will enhance snow totals and rates.
Across the Plains of SD, probabilities of 4 inches are between
30-50% with 10-30% chances of 8 inches or more. As the low moves
into the Midwest late tonight through Wednesday, a lack of colder
air further east will make the predominant precipitation type
become rain, so the wintry threat with this low will diminish
greatly late tonight.


...Northeast...
Days 2-3...

The low tracking over KS/MO today shifts east to the Mid-Atlantic
through Tuesday before shifting up the New England coast Tuesday
night. It's a progressive system, but with the surface low
translating to the coast around Long Island then strengthening as
it tracks northeastward, there is a threat for banding on the back
side of the low as colder air is pulled in from Canada. Very warm
(for this time of year) air is in place even into interior New
England presently. By Tuesday night, the approaching precipitation
from the southwest with colder air close behind may encounter some
lingering cold air in the sheltered valleys of northern NH and
western ME. Thus, the precipitation may begin as freezing rain
before changing over to snow Wednesday. WPC probabilities for 0.01"
of ice are between 40-60%, primarily Tuesday night, for northern NH
and much of western ME.

Marginal thermals should be overcome at higher elevations over the
Adirondacks and Green/White Mountains esp >1500ft. To the west,
colder air will rush in behind the system across the still mild
Great Lakes and support some lake-enhanced/effect snow downwind of
Erie/Ontario on NW flow Wednesday thru the end of this forecast 00Z
Thu. Sufficient moisture will also be present over the central
Appalachians (eastern WV into the Laurel Highlands) for some
upslope snow. WPC probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow are
moderate (30-60%) there on the west side of the system as it
retreats to Canada. Over New England, higher probabilities ~50-70%
exist over parts of the higher elevations >2500ft in the
Adirondacks, along the northern spine of the Green Mountains, and
into the White Mountains in NH into northwestern Maine where banded
snow is more likely as the low scoots across the Gulf of Maine
into eastern Maine Wednesday afternoon. Snow will continue into
interior New England through Wednesday night. Meanwhile lake-effect
and upslope snow will keep light snow going through Wednesday night
from western New York and northeast Ohio through the mountains of
western Pennsylvania and West Virginia.

Wegman

$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 310905
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
405 AM EST Tue Dec 31 2024

Valid 12Z Tue Dec 31 2024 - 12Z Fri Jan 03 2025

...Pacific Northwest to Northern Rockies...
Days 1-3...

Lull today over the Northwest ends this evening as a plume of
Pacific moisture streams in ahead of a trough emanating from a
Gulf of Alaska low. A vort lobe from this trough ejects ESE over WA
tonight and Wyoming Wednesday night. The front with this wave
stalls near the OR/WA border tonight before slowly lifting north
through Thursday as the intensity of moisture advection increases.
Snow levels of 2000 to 3000 ft linger over the Cascades into
Wednesday before rising steadily south of the front with levels in
southern OR reaching 7000ft while they remain 2000ft in the North
WA Cascades (though rates generally remain light north of the
front). Day 1.5 snow probs for >8" are 50-90% in the OR Cascades
and 30-50% in the southern WA Cascades. This moisture shifts inland
with Day 2 snow probs for >8" 30-60% over the Sawtooths and Tetons
south along the WY/ID border. A powerful low which will be
directing the atmospheric river approaches the OR Coast Thursday
night. Snow levels of 6000-8000ft persist over OR with lower values
in WA allowing some Day 3 snow probs for >8" around 30% in the
North WA Cascades. Sufficient cold air pools in the Columbia Basin
by Thursday night to allow a threat of ice accretion in the lower
Basin into the Columbia Gorge Thursday night.


...Great Lakes, Central Appalachians, Northeast...
Days 1-3...

The surface low currently crossing St. Louis is presenting
deformation banding over IA and northern IL, but
uncharacteristically for a late December night, there is
insufficient cold air for significant snowfall. However, cold
conveyor flow from the east and further development should allow
for some decent snow bands to develop later this morning over
southern MI and far northern IN. Tonight expect LES bands to form
off Lakes Superior and Michigan that persist into Thursday. Day 2.5
snow probs are high near Whitefish Bay.
A coastal low develops at the triple- point over the central Mid-
Atlantic this evening and quickly becoming the dominant low. This
low tracks up the New England coast through Wednesday with dynamic
cooling driven snow over terrain of northern New England late
tonight into Thursday before lake enhanced snow develops in to lake
effect snow bands off the still ice free Lakes Erie and Ontario.
Day 2.5 snow probs for >8" are 50-80% for the Tug Hill and northern
Adirondacks as well as the length of the Greens in NT and the
Presidential Range in NH.
Upslope flow into the central Appalachians turns into snow late
tonight that continues through Wednesday. Day 1.5 snow probs for

6" are 40-80% from the PA Laurels through the Potomac and

Allegheny Highlands west from the Allegheny Front. The progression
of the low slows over Atlantic Canada Wednesday night through
Thursday night which allows LES to persist. Day 2 snow probs are
50-80% from Erie through southern Buffalo and around 80% on the Tug
Hill. The focus shifts a bit north for Day 3 with snow probs for
an additional >8" over the Tug Hill around 60%.


Jackson



$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 010929
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
429 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2025

Valid 12Z Wed Jan 01 2025 - 12Z Sat Jan 04 2025

...The West...
Days 1-3...

A prolonged atmospheric river (AR) event continues to provide
moisture to the northwestern states through Friday night. A potent
trough crosses the Pacific Northwest coast on Friday which will
define the end of this AR, though an active winter pattern is
expected to continue over the Northwest through the weekend.

Rising snow levels in the core of the AR today into the OR/CA
border cause snow levels on the Klamath and southern Cascades to
rise above 7000ft.

...North-Central Rockies...
Days 1-2...
A shortwave impulse on the leading edge of the AR pushes ESE from
Washington state this morning and crosses Wyoming this evening.
Sufficient moisture, baroclinicity from existing stalled fronts,
and topographic lift will bring snow to the north- central Rockies
today into Thursday. Lee cyclogenesis aids develop over north-
central CO terrain that persists through Thursday morning. Day 1
snow probs for >8" is 40-80% for much of the central/southern ID
terrain, from the Tetons through the Wasatch, and northern CO
ranges that extend into southern WY.

Pacific Northwest into California...
Days 2-3...
Ridging behind the impulse causes further height rises as massive
AR moisture continues to stream in. A persistent frontal boundary
near the WA/OR border allows snow levels over the WA Cascades to
remain 4000ft or less through Thursday. Day 2 snow probs for >6"
are 20-40% over the WA Cascades. Meanwhile, sub-freezing wet-bulb
temps in the Columbia Basin and possibly Gorge Thursday afternoon
could result in some minor ice accumulations through Thursday night.

A potent trough south of a mid-level low that tracks into western
WA on Friday provides a focus for lift with the robust moisture in
the AR for the Cascades through the northern Sierra Nevada while
height falls lower the snow level before the enhanced precip
diminishes Friday night. Snow levels of 7000-8000ft from central OR
through northern CA late Thursday night drop below 6000ft Friday
afternoon under the trough with snow levels of 4000-5000ft
persisting over WA. Day 3 snow probs for >8" are generally 20-40%
from the northern Sierra through southern WA terrain, while values
are 30-70% in the northern WA Cascades and in terrain of far
northern ID into MT.


...Great Lakes and Northeast...
Days 1-3...

Developing low over NY will track north over Maine through
tonight the drift farther north over the Canadian Maritimes into
Friday night causing snow over Northeast terrain today with lake
enhanced snow this evening becoming lake effect snow over the
Great Lakes that persist in earnest through Friday night. Snow this
morning is focused on the White Mtns above 2000ft snow levels with
heavy rates in the higher terrain and far interior Maine this
afternoon. Heavy lake enhanced snow develops off Lake Erie this
morning, shifting up off Lake Ontario and over the Adirondacks and
the Green Mtns this evening. Day 1 snow probs for >6" are highest
east of Erie, Ontario and the northern Adirondacks. Rates should
exceed 1"/hr for a few hours in each of these areas raising the
threat. Single banded LES persists from Lake Ontario through Friday
night with the WNW flow maximizing upstream moisture fetch with
Lake Superior, northern Lake Huron and the Georgian Bay (all of
which are nearly open water) in the stream lines for the Tug Hill.
Day 2 snow probs are 90% for >8" for the Tug Hill and around 60% for Day 3.

Meanwhile, general multi- band LES is expected off Superior and MI
all three days on WNW flow. The heaviest snow is through Thursday
in the U.P. where preferred snow belts in WNW flow have >50% probs for >6".


...Midwest through Central Appalachians...
Days 1-3...

The shortwave impulse crossing ESE over WY this evening and
promoting lee cyclogenesis tonight over CO will track over the
Central Plains late tonight into Thursday. Surface-850mb
frontogenesis over northeast Nebraska will help to draw an
inverted trough from KS which will track to KY by Thursday evening.
low pressure along the front and track east towards the Missouri
This wave is compact, but the presence of strong 850mb FGEN and air
cold enough for snow will generate narrow bands of moderate to
locally heavy snow from northeastern Nebraska through Iowa and
possibly IL/IN/OH (though the wave weakens). Day 1.5 snow probs
for >2" are 30-70% over northeast Neb and much of IA with values
generally 10% or less over northern IL/IN into OH.
A northern stream impulse interacts with this wave on Friday just
before it reaches the central/WV Appalachians which will enhance
lift along with topography and Great Lakes moisture to produce
enhanced upslope snow from the PA Laurels through the Allegheny
Highlands of WV. Day 3 snow probs for >6" are 50-80% from around Mt
Davis down the Allegheny Front through the Allegheny Highlands.

Jackson
$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 110734
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
234 AM EST Sat Jan 11 2025

Valid 12Z Sat Jan 11 2025 - 12Z Tue Jan 14 2025

...Central Appalachians...
Day 1...

Exiting storm off the Mid-Atlantic will be closely followed by the
mid-level shortwave, helping to wring out a few inches of snow
over the central/southern Appalachians (but mainly central WV
northward to the Laurel Highlands) this morning that will diminish
later this evening.


...Northern/Central Rockies to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
Days 1-3...

Upper trough that entered the PacNW yesterday will continue
through the Rockies today as a positively-tilted trough with
multiple embedded vort maxes along its axis. This will yield a
broad swath of light to moderate snow over much of the Rockies
today from central Idaho into Montana southward to the CO Rockies
along/ahead of the cold front. Favored areas on D1 for snow include
the Little/Big Belts, Big Snowy Mountains, and into the Bighorns
where WPC probabilities for at least 8 inches of snow are >50% with
the higher peaks likely receiving >2ft of snow through D2.

To the east, the northern extent of the upper trough will carry a
clipper system out of Canada with an area of low pressure tracking
across central ND to southern MN by this evening. Light to perhaps
modest snow is forecast around the low, focused via WAA and beneath
some upper divergence on the northern side of the system from the
Red River Valley eastward across northern MN. QPF should be near
and below 0.25" but with a deeper DGZ snow ratios should be >15:1
which should yield an area of 3-4" between Fargo and Duluth where
WPC probabilities for at least 4 inches D1 are >20%. Low pressure
will turn the corner northeastward across northern WI and across
the western U.P. into Quebec, favoring southerly flow into the
eastern U.P. along with compact convergence over the western
portion of Lake Superior which will favor the Keweenaw Peninsula as
well as Isle Royale along a sfc trough axis. Lighter snow is
expected southward and eastward across much of the Great Lakes
though there could also be some enhancement along the western side
of Lower Michigan via land/lake sfc convergence. WPC probabilities
for at least 4 inches of snow D2 are >50% over the aforementioned
favored areas that also includes the North Shore from Duluth up to
Grand Portage where there are >50% probabilities for at least 8
inches of snow.

By D3, a new upper low out of central Canada will drop southward
into MN and expand across the Great Lakes, maintaining cyclonic
flow across the region with cold 850 temperatures (-24C at the core
of the upper low and -10C dropping to -15C into the Tug Hill by
the end of the period. This will support widespread lake-effect
snow on general northwesterly to westerly flow that favor modest
snows over the typical lake belt areas. Amounts may be light/modest
(several inches) with some locally higher amounts along the
northern coast of the U.P. and also east of Lake Ontario.

Lastly, on the west side of the incoming cold upper low D3,
additional vorticity will stream southward across the northern
Plains which will carry light snow over eastern MT
south/southeastward that could accumulate several inches over the
Black Hills thanks to some favorable upslope.


For the Day 1-3 period, the probability of significant icing of at
least 0.10" is less than 10 percent across the CONUS.


Fracasso


$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 120743
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
243 AM EST Sun Jan 12 2025

Valid 12Z Sun Jan 12 2025 - 12Z Wed Jan 15 2025

...Northern Rockies/Western High Plains...
Days 1-2...

The southwest side of a positively-tilted upper-level trough will
carry waves of vorticity across the northern Rockies today with
additional snowfall over the higher peaks of central Montana into
Wyoming as well as across northern NM. Another wave will sink
southward through eastern Montana tomorrow with a bit more light
snow for the Black Hills. WPC probabilities for at least 6 inches
of snow are >50% in the Little Belt and Big Snowy Mountains as well
as the Big Horns.


...Great Lakes...
Days 1-3...

Area of low pressure over MN this morning will lift northeastward
across northern WI into the U.P. of Michigan and Lake Superior this
afternoon as it takes on a negative tilt in response to an
approaching upper low moving southward out of central Canada. This
will favor much of the U.P. and the northeastern Arrowhead of MN
for modest snow today beneath the TROWAL as the system occludes.
WPC probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow are high (>70%)
over the northeastern Arrowhead (~Grand Marais to Grand Portage),
over the Keweenaw Peninsula into the Porcupine Mountains, and also
around the Hiawatha National Forest via southerly flow ahead of the front.

By D2, the deep upper low will cross into northern MN with a core
of 850mb temps < -20C. Sfc trough will still linger across Lake
Superior as the main area of low pressure only slowly drifts
eastward, allowing height falls to push into the U.P. to continue
the snow through Monday. Downstream, the cold front will continue
eastward and help foster in a westerly to WSW flow over the eastern
Great Lakes, allowing lake effect snow to increase into NW Lower
Michigan first, then downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Core of
the upper low will continues its path southeastward across the
Great Lakes Mon into Tue eventually pushing off the Northeast coast
by the end of the period. However, NW flow will remain which will
continue the lake effect snow over all the Great Lakes, but
especially off Lakes Erie/Ontario D3.

For the D2-3 period, WPC probabilities for at least 8 inches of
snow are highest off Lake Erie from Erie, PA to the Buffalo
southtowns across the Chautauqua Ridge. Localized totals may be in
the 12-18 inch range. East of Lake Ontario, the Tug Hill will help
maximize snow totals there, especially south of Watertown in the
higher elevations (Redfield) where WPC probabilities for at least
12 inches of snow are >70%.

For the Day 1-3 period, the probability of significant icing of at
least 0.10" is less than 10 percent across the CONUS.

Fracasso

$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 130719
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
219 AM EST Mon Jan 13 2025

Valid 12Z Mon Jan 13 2025 - 12Z Thu Jan 16 2025

...Northern Rockies/Western High Plains...
Day 1...

Weak shortwave diving through central/eastern MT this morning will
sink southward through WY atop a surface boundary over eastern MT
into the Black Hills, supporting generally light snow with some
terrain enhancement. Areas in the Black Hills have a high chance

70%) of at least 4 inches of snow today.

...Great Lakes...
Days 1-3...

Occluded area of low pressure over Lake Superior this morning will
only slowly move to the east, leaving a surface trough across the
region and NW flow into the U.P. of Michigan. Additional height
falls via a cold closed low moving out of Canada into northern MN
will maintain/invigorate cyclonic flow across all the Great Lakes
behind the cold front moving into New England. Lake effect snow
will pick up in earnest over the eastern Great Lakes and maintain
itself over Lake Superior into the U.P. and northwest Lower MI for
the next 2-3 days. Snow will gradually wind down from NW to SE late
D2 into D3 ahead of a Canadian system.

For the period, WPC probabilities of at least 8 inches of snow are

50% over the Keweenaw Peninsula and over the eastern U.P. on NW

flow, as well as into northwestern Lower MI. East of Lake Erie, WPC probabilities for at least 8 inches of snow are >50% from Erie, PA
through the Chautauqua Ridge to near the Buffalo southtowns with
some totals likely over a foot. East of Lake Ontario, snowfall will
maximize into the Tug Hill Plateau where WPC probabilities for at
least 12 inches of snow are high (>70%) and even have a small area
of >50% probs for at least two feet around Redfield.


...PA/NY...
Days 1-2...

Approaching cold front today may instigate some snow squalls
across the region given relatively steep low-level lapse rates. On
Tuesday, approaching vort max may again provide an atmosphere
conducive for some snow squalls, with the models generally showing
an area of >1 in the snow squall parameter. Amounts will generally
be light but these can be hazardous to drivers.


For the Day 1-3 period, the probability of significant icing of at
least 0.10" is less than 10 percent across the CONUS.


Fracasso

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FOUS11 KWBC 140708
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
208 AM EST Tue Jan 14 2025

Valid 12Z Tue Jan 14 2025 - 12Z Fri Jan 17 2025

...Great Lakes...
Days 1-3...

Deep cyclonic flow is in place over the Great Lakes and will start
to erode from NW to SE starting later today. Light to moderate
snow over the western Great Lakes will wane later tonight with an
additional few inches of snow over the favored lake belts. East of
Lakes Erie/Ontario, locally heavy amounts will fall over the
typical snowbelts today then start to lessen in intensity and
transition from single banded to more multi-banded as the upper
trough swings through. Starting tomorrow evening, an approaching
shortwave and surface warm front will bring in some light WAA-
driven snow to the western Great Lakes that will progress through
the eastern Great Lakes.

For the lake effect snow, WPC probabilities of at least an
additional 6 inches of snow D1-1.5 are highest (>70%) over
northwest PA into southwestern NY where 10+" are likely in the
band. East of Lake Ontario, WPC probabilities for at least an
additional 12 inches of snow are highest in the Tug Hill Plateau.
By D3, as the weaker system moves through the area, WPC
probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow are low (10-40%)
downwind of Lakes Erie/Ontario and also over the central
Appalachians thanks to some modest upslope.


...Eastern OH/W PA...
Day 1...

Steep lapse rates amplified by an amplified shortwave moving
through the base of the broader scale trough may support snow
showers and potential squalls east and southeast of Lake Erie this
afternoon. The NAM and GFS continue to show Snow Squall Parameter
values greater than 2 as 850mb temps of -15C or so move across the
region. Accumulations will generally be light, but a brief period
of intense, wind-driven snow may create hazardous driving conditions.


For the Day 1-3 period, the probability of significant icing of at
least 0.10" is less than 10 percent across the CONUS.


Fracasso


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FOUS11 KWBC 230718
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
218 AM EST Thu Jan 23 2025

Valid 12Z Thu Jan 23 2025 - 12Z Sun Jan 26 2025

...Great Lakes...
Days 1-3...

Cyclonic flow across the east will be amplified by a shortwave
moving through the flow which will push a cold front eastward
across the Great Lakes late Thursday into Friday, followed by
renewed CAA. This CAA will be somewhat short lived as a brief
period of shortwave ridging follows in its wake, primarily
resulting in subtle WAA D2, before a second, but weaker and
displaced farther north, shortwave digs across the region driving
another cold front eastward. This will result in two rounds of CAA
across the now cold lakes (GLERL total ice coverage up to 24%), so
despite steepening lapse rates the duration and intensity of any
subsequent lake effect snow (LES) will be modest.

This results in the heaviest snow likely occurring D3 as reflected
by WPC probabilities for more than 6 inches reaching 30-50% east of
Lake Ontario and across the Keweenaw Peninsula, but D1
probabilities for 4+ inches are also high (70%) in the eastern
U.P., along the eastern shore of Lake Michigan, and east of Lake
Ontario. 3-day total snowfall may eclipse 12 inches in the most
prolonged snow bands.


...The West...
Days 1-3...

An upper ridge dominating the flow across much of the West will
quickly be replaced by an amplifying trough beginning the latter
half of D1. This will occur in response to a shortwave trough
digging across British Columbia/Alberta and connecting with
secondary energy from the Pacific moving into the Pacific
Northwest. Together, these will force a longwave trough to deepen,
with height falls rapidly beginning Friday across the Pacific and
Interior Northwest as secondary energy digs southward through the
trough. With time, this feature is progged to become even more
impressive, taking on a negative tilt near CA Saturday and then
potentially closing off into an amplified low as reflected by both
ECMWF and GFS deterministic 500mb fields, and supported by NAEFS
700-500mb height anomalies falling to below the 10th percentile
over CA and portions of the Great Basin.

This synoptic evolution will help push a cold front southward
through the Central Rockies and Great Basin, while the placement of
the upper low results in downstream divergence and pronounced SW
flow atop the sinking front. The result of this will be increasing
isentropic ascent and expanding precipitation, generally in the
form of snow as the swath of precip pivots south from the Northern
Rockies through the Great Basin, accompanied by snow levels falling
from 1500-3000 ft ahead of the front to less than 500 ft below it.
Most of the precipitation should be light to moderate as PW
anomalies are generally normal to below normal, but some heavier
snowfall is possible, especially D3 as a stripe of fgen develops in
the LFQ of a strengthening jet streak collocated with the
WAA/isentropic ascent from the Great Basin east to the Front Range
of CO. Some enhanced ascent will also occur in this area due to
increasing upslope flow on the NE flow around a high pressure to
the north.

This evolution will spread a swath of snowfall southward each day.
On D1, WPC probabilities for 4+ inches are moderate (50-70%) across
some of the higher terrain of central Montana. By D2 the coverage
of moderate probabilities increases and spread across the
Absarokas, NW WY ranges, and into the CO Rockies including the Park
Range. By D3, WPC probabilities for 4 inches or more are highest
across the Front Range and Park Range of CO, with some lower
probabilities as far east as the Sierra. Days 2-3 snowfall could
exceed 1 foot in parts of the Colorado Rockies.


For the days 1-3 period, the probability of significant icing
greater than 0.10" is less than 10 percent.


Weiss


...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please see current
Key Messages below...

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/LatestKeyMessage_2.png

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FOUS11 KWBC 240819
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
319 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2025

Valid 12Z Fri Jan 24 2025 - 12Z Mon Jan 27 2025

...Great Lakes...
Days 1-3...

Cyclonic flow will persist across the Great Lakes and Northeast
through the period, although modest amplitude of this troughing
will result in generally progressive flow. Within this flow several
shortwaves will traverse WNW to ESE atop the region, each one
driving renewed surges of CAA across the Great Lakes. There may be
as many as 4 weak shortwaves through the period, with subtle
thickness rises in between each feature, and this will result in
waves of lake effect snow (LES) with variable wind direction
driven by CAA behind each impulse. The Great Lakes have cooled
dramatically in the past 7-10 days, reflected by the warmest
waters now generally around +5 C, and regional ice coverage up to
24% (85% on Lake Erie now), which will somewhat limit the intensity
of any LES, and the heavy snow during this period will be more
driven by repeated rounds of moderate snow than very heavy rates.
The exception will most likely be east of Lake Ontario and across
the Keweenaw Peninsula. This is reflected by WPC probabilities for
4+ inches exceeding 70% both D2 and D3 east of Lake Ontario and
into the Tug Hill Plateau where 3-day snowfall of 1-2+ feet is
possible, and by 4+ inch probabilities exceeding 90% across the
Keweenaw on D2 where locally as much as 12 inches is possible.


...The West...
Days 1-3...

A shortwave digging south from British Columbia will begin to
amplify as its accompanying vorticity surges into WA/OR this aftn.
This feature will continue to dive southward while amplifying,
reaching CA by the start of D2, and most guidance now supports the
development of a closed low over central CA Saturday aftn/evening
where 500-700mb heights fall as low as the 1st percentile according
to the NAEFS climatology. This feature will likely then crawl
southward as it becomes cutoff, with multiple closed height
contours, over CA through D3, reaching potentially only as far
south as the Los Angeles area by the end of the forecast period.
This amplified closed low development and the accompanying
longwave trough will force downstream jet development, as the
subtropical jet arcs northeast from near Baja into the Central
Plains, reaching as high as 110 kts D2, and then as high as 150kts
D3 as secondary enhancement occurs over CA.

This evolution will have a two-pronged effect on the precipitation
and snowfall across the West. First, the shortwave digging south
will push a cold front southward beneath it, causing snow levels to
crash rapidly in its wake from 3000-5000 ft to below 500 ft,
although across the southern Great Basin and southern CA snowfall
levels will fall only to around 3000 ft. Most of the precipitation
D1-D2 associated with this front will be modest due to normal, to
below normal, PWs. However, the developing jet streak combined with
the frontal passage and post-frontal upslope flow will result in an
axis of stronger ascent through fgen (and the upslope), leading to
a swath of heavy snowfall from the Absarokas of MT southward
through WY, and most impressively into the Colorado Rockies,
including the Park Range, D1-2. The strongest fgen will likely
reside west-to-east from CO through the Sierra, providing
additional heavy snow accumulations for portions of UT and NV. WPC probabilities D1-2 are moderate to high (50-90%) for 4+ inches
across these areas, with the most substantial snowfall likely
across CO where 12-18 of total snowfall is possible.

D2-D3 snowfall begins to ramp up downstream of the slowly sinking
closed low, in response to increasing WAA/moist advection and
impressive deep layer ascent as mid-level divergence overlaps with
increasing LFQ jet-level diffluence. This will spread periods of
moderate to heavy precipitation northeast into the Sierra, as well
as the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges of CA, with some moisture
spilling into the Great Basin (including Mt. Charleston) as well.
The airmass across this region is likely to be characteristically
different from that farther to the north as the front stalls, so
snowfall in this area will be more elevated and with lower SLR.
Still, the favorable ascent and moisture overlap will likely
produce rounds of heavy snow, and WPC probabilities D2 are
moderate (50-70%) for 4+ inches in the Sierra, and expand D3 into
the southern CA ranges, reaching 70-90% for 4+ inches, and as high
as 10-30% for 8+ inches, with the highest accumulations expected
above 5000 ft.


For the days 1-3 period, the probability of significant icing
greater than 0.10" is less than 10 percent.


Weiss

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FOUS11 KWBC 250741
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
241 AM EST Sat Jan 25 2025

Valid 12Z Sat Jan 25 2025 - 12Z Tue Jan 28 2025

...Great Lakes and Interior Northeast...
Days 1-3...

Cyclonic flow will persist across the Great Lakes and Northeast
through the period, although modest amplitude of this troughing
will result in generally progressive flow. Within this flow several
shortwaves will traverse WNW to ESE atop the region, each one
driving renewed surges of CAA across the Great Lakes. Two
additional shortwaves are progged to move across the region, one
Saturday night, and another Sunday night, with subtle thickness
rises in between each feature, and this will result in waves of
lake effect snow (LES) with variable wind direction driven by CAA
behind each impulse. The Great Lakes have cooled dramatically in
the past 7-10 days, reflected by the warmest waters now generally
around +5 C, and regional ice coverage up to 24% (85% on Lake Erie
now), which will somewhat limit the intensity of any LES, and the
heavy snow during this period will be more driven by repeated
rounds of moderate snow than very heavy rates, but favorable fetch
across Lake Superior D1, and Ontario D2 will produce rounds of
heavy LES with rates 1"/hr or more possible. This is reflected by
WPC probabilities that are moderate (50-70%) for 6+ inches across
the Keweenaw Peninsula D1, and high (>90%) for 6+ inches D2 into
the Tug Hill Plateau.

Then on D3, the core of the cyclonic gyre begins to drop south
from the Hudson Bay, driving sharp height falls and extremely
confluent mid-level flow to its south. As this dives southward, it
will push a cold front draped west to east from Saskatchewan to
Upstate NY by the end of D3, causing enhanced ascent and strong
flow across the Lakes. This will result in additional moderate to
heavy snow, with expansion into Upstate NY, especially in the
upslope region of the Adirondacks, Monday. While moisture is
expected to be significant across due to both synoptic and lake
enhancement, there is some uncertainty as to how the snowfall will
accumulate due to SLRs that may be extremely fractured due to
strong winds within an otherwise favorable DGZ. The models have
trended upward with snowfall, however, and current WPC
probabilities for more than 4 inches of snow are as high as 70-90%
downstream of Lake Ontario and into the Adirondacks.


...The West...
Days 1-3...

A strung out lobe of vorticity emanating from a shortwave closing
off over Northern California this morning will help push a cold
front southward, but with only a lazy loss of latitude through the
period. This slow evolution will be in response to the
amplification of the mid-level pattern, as the shortwave deepens
into a closed low and then drifts over central CA through at least
Sunday night before finally dropping farther south towards northern
Baja late Monday /D3/. Height falls, although slow, will be
impressive as 500-700mb heights drop to around the 1st percentile
according to the NAEFS climatology, helping to drive deep layer
ascent through the region. This ascent will be additionally
enhanced by two distinct downstream jet streaks, one lifting away
into the Central Plains Sunday, with a more intense jet streak
developing over southern CA/northern Baja Monday. The overlap of
the LFQ of this jet streak, the mid-level height falls, and
impressive downstream mid-level divergence will result in
increasing lift across the Desert SW and Great Basin, leading to
expanding rounds of precipitation Sunday and Monday before
weakening and drying out late in the period. This will be in
addition to a round of heavy snow along the front and enhanced by
isentropic ascent, fgen, and upslope flow from the Sierra east to
the CO Rockies on D1.

WPC probabilities for heavy snow D1 are aligned west to east just
north of the surface front, from the central Sierra through the
northern CO Rockies, where they reach 70-90% for 6+ inches, highest
in the Park Range of CO, the Wasatch Front of UT, and the Sierra
in CA where locally as much as 10" of snow is possible on D1.
Although amounts are less otherwise, a fairly continues stripe of
2-4" of snow is possible along this axis today and tonight.

As the upper low consolidates, moisture and ascent become focused
in the southern half of CA, the Great Basin, reaching the Four
Corners by D3. Snow levels will hover around 3000-4000 ft during
this time, resulting in heavy snow in much of the higher terrain as
far south as the San Bernardino and San Jacinto Mountains. WPC
probabilities D2 are moderate (30-50%) for 6+ inches in portions of
the southern Sierra, as well as most of the Peninsular and
Transverse ranges, and also for Mt. Charleston in NV. By D3,
precipitation expands east, and WPC probabilities for 4+ inches
reach 10-30% across the Kaibab Plateau of AZ, with additional
significant snowfall again progged over Mt. Charleston and the San
Bernardino Mountains.


For the days 1-3 period, the probability of significant icing
greater than 0.10" is less than 10 percent.

Weiss
$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 260746
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
246 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2025

Valid 12Z Sun Jan 26 2025 - 12Z Wed Jan 29 2025

...Great Lakes and Interior Northeast...
Days 1-3...

A cold and snowy period is expected through Wednesday morning
across all of the Great Lakes. A persistent longwave trough will
remain in place through the period, with several disturbances
moving through. These shortwave disturbances will locally enhance
the coverage and intensity of snowfall over and downwind (south and
east) of the lakes. Cyclonic flow will keep a steady supply of cold
air moving over the lakes, which in turn will keep the lake-effect
snows going almost constantly through Tuesday, especially east of
Lake Ontario. This morning, the first of these disturbances will
cross over the lower lakes. The associated cold front will briefly
lower temperatures and increase forcing, resulting in heavier
lake-effect behind the front through the day today. Surface ridging
will quickly build in behind the front, but the second disturbance
quickly approaches behind the ridging. This back-and-forth between disturbance/trough and ridging will result in rapid sloshing of the
lake-effect over a larger area downwind of the lakes. However, the
bands won't stay in any one place very long, limiting the
accumulations for most. The disturbances themselves will largely
track well north of the Canadian border, so the souther/eastern
lakes should have the more persistent lake-effect since the
associated wind direction changes will be a bit slower to occur.

A third disturbance in the form of a clipper low will move across
all of the lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday, which will simply
maintain the lake-effect while shifting the bands with the wind.
The clipper itself will make for a general light snowfall over
areas outside of the lake-effect bands as well, though where the
bands are most persistent and where topography can uplift
additional moisture (such as on the Tug Hill Plateau of NY), is
where the greatest snowfall totals are expected.

GLERL analysis of the lakes shows the average lake temperature of
around 40 degrees for Lakes Michigan, Huron, and Ontario. Lake Erie
is over 80% ice covered, and Lake Superior is around 37 degrees.
This would correspond to 850 mb temperatures needing to be at or
colder than -9 to -10 degrees Celsius in order to maintain the
minimum instability for lake-effect. Through this period, only on
Monday ahead of the second disturbance's cold front will this
criterion not be met.

In addition to the lake-effect, the cold fronts associated with
each disturbance, especially the second one on Monday/Monday Night,
will be capable of causing snow squalls outside of the lake-effect
areas. The snow squall parameter will be over 5 at times as the
front moves over the U.P. late Monday afternoon, and the St.
Lawrence Valley Monday night. The parameter will lower a bit to
between 2 and 4 as it moves over the rest of New York State and New
England through Tuesday morning.

WPC probabilities for over 8 inches of snow through D3/Wednesday
morning are high (>80%) across the Tug Hill Plateau and western
Adirondacks of northern New York. Probabilities are moderate
(50-70%) across the Lake Superior shoreline of the eastern U.P.,
and low (10-30%) for northern Michigan and far western New York
south of Buffalo, due to Lake Erie being largely frozen over.

...Southwest, Great Basin, and Central Rockies...
Days 1-3...

An upper level cutoff low will begin the period this morning over
central California. This feature will be the focus for wintry
weather across the mountains of the Southwest through Wednesday
morning. The upper level low will drift south into southern
California through Monday, then drift eastward into Arizona through
Wednesday morning. Due to the slow movement of the low and the cold
air associated therewith, snow will be the dominant precipitation
type over many of the higher elevations. The low will also bring
much needed rainfall to the fire stricken areas in and around Los Angeles.

While the cutoff low itself will be slow-moving, plentiful upper
level energy/shortwaves rotating around the low will locally
increase precipitation intensity, especially where flow off of the
Pacific lines up orthogonal to the terrain. This is most likely in
the southern Sierras and portions of the Transverse Ranges,
especially northeast/inland of Los Angeles. WPC probabilities of 8+
inches of snow are low (10-40%) for the southern Sierras and
portions of the Transverse Ranges through Wednesday.

By Tuesday, the cutoff low moving into Arizona will shift the
greatest lift and divergence east into the Four Corners region. A
lack of moisture generally over this area should confine the areas
of potential heavy snow to the higher elevations of Utah and
Colorado, but amounts are generally unlikely to exceed 8 inches.


For the Days 1-3 period, the probability of significant icing
greater than 0.10" is less than 10 percent.

Wegman

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FOUS11 KWBC 300858
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2025

Valid 12Z Thu Jan 30 2025 - 12Z Sun Feb 02 2025

...Northeast & Northern Mid-Atlantic...
Days 1-3...

Deep low pressure over eastern CO this morning will eject east to
the Middle Mississippi Valley tonight with copious Gulf moisture
available will have directed an exceptional IVT over the eastern
third of the U.S. with values topping 1,000 kg/m/s over the TN
Valley. Pockets of freezing rain are likely late tonight into
Friday over northeast PA and southern NY with Day 1.5 ice probs for

0.1" in the 20-30% range. Farther north, boundary layer

temperatures will remain below freezing and allow for snow to be
the primary precipitation type Friday/Friday night from south of
Lake Ontario across the Adirondacks on east through the Green and
White Mountains and southern/eastern Maine.

As the primary low weakens Friday evening across NY, a new coastal
low will form east of the MA Capes Friday night. The low will be a
fast mover with periods of snow Friday night concluding by Saturday
morning. The EC remains more suppressed/quicker with the solution
resulting in less snow than the stronger/slower/snowier GFS. Day 2
WPC probabilities for >4" are 10-30% for lower elevations from
east of Buffalo and through eastern Maine and 30-60% in terrain of
the Adirondacks, Green and White Mountains. However, should banding
develop on the northern end of the precip shield, the motion would
be along the west-east orientation and lead to localized heavy
snow of several inches. Hopefully the variation in track and
magnitude improves in the next model suite.


...Southern Rockies and Central High Plains...
Day 1...

Mid-level is now over the CO High Plains where it will continue to
develop through this morning. Strong ascent around and under this
low will persist into the afternoon with moisture aiding snow,
heavy at times, for the southern Front Range and Sangre de Cristos
and Raton Mesa. Banding extends northeast from the Palmer Divide
with snow accum to the eastern CO border. Day 1 snow probs for >4"
after 12Z are 40-70% for these areas. Snow should conclude
this afternoon as the low tracks east.


...Pacific and Interior Northwest...
Days 1-3...

An atmospheric river (AR) crosses the WA/OR coasts tonight as an
approaching trough gets drawn into a deep low drifting south from
the southern AK coast. IVT within this AR ranges between 300-500
kg/m/s Friday morning, which is as high as the 99th climatological
percentile per NAEFS. WAA increases with the AR, causing snow
levels to rise tonight through Friday morning to 4000-5000ft for
the Cascades and west. However, height falls from both the trough
crossing and the approaching cold-core low causes snow levels to
plummet Friday night through Saturday. Snow levels reach sea level
in western WA on Saturday with a strong baroclinic zone over OR
and into the northern Rockies. Upslope flow into the
Cascades/Olympics will continue through Friday night before
diminishing to more moderate rates under the colder trough Saturday
night. Heavy snow persists through Saturday for the northern
Rockies. Farther south, the westerly IVT will continue to pump
copious Pacific moisture into the West with the northern California
ranges seeing the heaviest precipitation Saturday and continuing
into next week in a prolonged onshore flow. Snow levels will be
notably higher on that side of the baroclinic zone with snow levels

7,000ft in the Sierra Nevada, and >5,000ft in the Trinity/Shasta.

Day 1.5 WPC snow probabilities for >6" are high (60-90%) in the
WA Cascades and 50-80% in the OR/CA Cascades and northern
Bitterroots. These probabilities greatly expand Friday night with
Day 2.5 snow probs for >6" high (50-90% for the length of the
Cascades/High Sierra, Sawtooths, Bitterroots, and Absarokas/Wind
River around and south of Yellowstone.
There is concern for ice accretion at lower elevations of eastern
WA and northern ID, and western MT where surface temps have rarely
gotten above freezing in recent days. Should snow transition over
to a sleet/rain mix, ground conditions are so cold that freezing
rain would occur on these surfaces even with air temperatures above
freezing. Expect wintry conditions to linger through Monday as the
IVT to the south persists and a more frigid air- mass inches its
way south from southwest Canada, resulting in more mountain snow
and possibly icy conditions in some valleys of the Pacific
Northwest and Intermountain West.

Jackson



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FOUS11 KWBC 310915
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
415 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

Valid 12Z Fri Jan 31 2025 - 12Z Mon Feb 03 2025

...Northeast...
Days 1 & 3...

Mid-level low pressure over OK early this morning will shift ENE
over the Midwest today and continue to direct broad and strong
moisture advection to the east. A few pockets of freezing rain are
likely over northern PA and Upstate NY on the leading edge of the
warm air advection through this evening with a few hundredths of an
inch possible. Meanwhile, the northern edge of the precip shield
will feature snow bands east from Buffalo across the Adirondacks,
Green, and White Mountains, along with southern NH and far southern
Maine where Day 1 snow probabilities for >4" are around 20%,
perhaps 40% for the higher terrain. Uncertainty has reigned with
the banding potential, but the consensus has agreed on moderate
banding at best starting later this afternoon with max potential
around 6" despite the w-e orientation of the bands in the direction
of motion. Snow tapers off by sunrise Saturday.

The next shortwave trough is currently well off the PacNW Coast,
but rides a strong jet over the Great Lakes on Sunday and the
Northeast Sunday evening. This allows a warm front to lift over the
Northeast with a fairly quick hitting round of snow. Day 3 snow
probabilities for >4" are currently 20 to 40% for only the Tug
Hill, Presidential Range of the Whites in NH and southern Maine.


...Upper Great Lakes...
Day 2...

A fast moving upper level shortwave trough tracking across the
Northern Plains Saturday night will coincide with the diffluent
left- exit region of a 250mb jet streak to provide modest ascent
over the Upper Midwest with an eastward surface low track over
northern MN Saturday night. The warm front ahead of the low lifts
north Saturday evening, increasing 850-700mb WAA to provide
additional low- level ascent and periods of snow from northern MN
on east across the Upper Midwest Saturday afternoon/evening.
Northern WI and the southern MI Upper Peninsula see moderate snow
with locally enhanced lift on the North Shore of Lake Superior on
southeast-to- easterly flow. Light snow spreads over much of MI
early Sunday while the heavier snowfall over northern MN/northern
WI tapers off by Sunday afternoon. WPC snow probabilities for >4"
are 20-50% over northern WI/western U.P. and the MN Arrowhead with
60% probabilities for >6" along the North Shore escarpment.


...Pacific and Interior Northwest/Great Basin...
Days 1-3...

An active and prolonged wintry pattern for much of the Pacific Northwest/Interior West/Great Basin is expected through midweek. Mild temperatures in an atmospheric river (AR) will limit heavier snow
to the higher mountain locations with Cascades snow levels around
5000ft through this evening. Colder air under a trough axis and an
approaching cold-core upper low drifting down the BC coast will
become entrenched over the Northwest as precip rates decrease to
light to moderate Snow levels drop to sea level over western WA and
possibly northwest OR on Saturday where they remain through midweek.
The AR will remain focused into northern CA Saturday through
Tuesday with high snow levels (8000ft and up) on the south side of
a strong baroclinic zone.

For D1, strong IVT (>90th percentile over much of the region
today) and WAA will drive heavy precip and multiple feet of snow
above pass level in the Cascades. Day 1 Probabilities for >8" are
50-80% for the Bitterroots and Sawtooths, and 40-60% for the High
Sierra Nevada and western WY ranges.

Starting tonight colder air will filter in (in typical fashion)
then rush in with a vengeance by Sunday as the upper low over
coastal BC sinks closer to the region. Though QPF will be lighter
overall over WA/OR as the moisture plume focuses into
NorCal/northern Sierra, SLRs will rise and snow levels will fall,
bringing accumulating and impactful snow well below pass level by
Saturday afternoon then into the lowlands/Seattle and possibly
Portland metro by Saturday night. For areas north of CA/NV,
continued onshore flow ahead of the upper low will lead to less QPF
each day but more snow coverage from the cold.

Days 2 and 3 snow probabilities for >8" are focused over
OR/northern CA east across the north-central Rockies with the
heaviest snow continuing over the Sawtooths, Absarokas/Wind River
south through the Wasatch and higher ridges of northern Nevada.


Jackson


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FOUS11 KWBC 020914
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
414 AM EST Sun Feb 2 2025

Valid 12Z Sun Feb 02 2025 - 12Z Wed Feb 05 2025


...Western U.S. across the Northern Plains...
Days 1-3...

...Atmospheric River (AR) and upper low maintain prolonged heavy
snow from Oregon/California border to the Northern Rockies through Monday...

Deep upper low persists over Vancouver Island through Monday before
drifting southwest off the PacNW coast with troughing lingering
there through Thursday. Another upper low moving east to the north
of Hawaii moving eastward will maintain onshore flow into the West
over the next several days, focusing the moisture axis from CA/OR
border through southern Idaho through western WY terrain through
Monday before shifting south over CA Monday night through Tuesday
night. Tight baroclinic zone north of this moisture axis maintains
lower elevation snow with enhanced totals in terrain through this time.

48hr probs for >2' ending 12Z Tuesday are 50-90% over terrain from
the Shasta/Siskiyou. Fremont Mtns in southern OR, the Sawtooths,
and Yellowstone through Wind Rivers. Beneficial precip for this
area, but major impacts to any passes in this area with snow levels
around 4000ft in the heavier snow. Snow levels are 5000-8000ft in
the core of the AR moisture axis over northern CA/NV/UT. However,
on Monday afternoon height falls as troughing expands over the NW
low brings snow farther south into CA. Heavy snow reaches the
northern Sierra Nevada by Monday evening with a slow progression of
heavy snow down the length of the Sierra with hourly rates
exceeding 2"/hr into Wednesday. Day 3 probs for >1' are 60-95% for
the length of the Sierra Nevada with a few feet in the High Sierra
(snow levels generally 5000-6000ft in the heaviest snow.

Cold continues over western WA/OR with occasional snow in the
Seattle/Portland metro areas through Tuesday night. A few to
several inches at a time are possible given the banding potential under/adjacent to the upper low just to the north.

The tilting axis that brings snow to CA Monday night also shifts
snow across the northern Rockies through MT through Tuesday night.
Day 3 snow probs for >4" are high over the Sawtooths and Absarokas
(adding to the extreme totals of the previous two days) with 40-60%
probs over the Bitterroots and all western MT ranges into the
north-central MT Plains.


...Northern Plains, Great Lakes, Northeast...
Days 1-3...

Zonal flow sends two shortwave troughs east over the northern tier
through Monday night.

Shortwave trough axis over MN shifts east across the Great Lakes
and New England through tonight. Final snow band works over the
North Shore in MN through mid-morning with locally heavy rates from southeasterly flow lifting over the Arrowhead. Expanding precip
shield over MI rest of the morning where a couple inches are
possible with more moderate snow across the Northeast late
afternoon through the evening. Local terrain enhancements over the
Tug Hill/southern Adirondacks/Berkshires/Greens/Whites and coastal
Maine where Day 1 snow probs for >4" are 20-40%.

The next shortwave trough enters the northern Plains this afternoon
with east-west oriented snow bands forming in the left exit region
of a 130kt+ jet streak producing a narrow axis of moderate snow
from southeast MT and along the SD/ND border where Day 1 snow probs
for >4" are 30 to 60%. These bands maintain their strength as they
shift east across central MN/northern WI and the northern L.P. late
tonight through Monday morning where Day 1.5 snow probs for >4" are 30-60%.

This jet induced swath of snow shifts across Ontario Monday, then
grazes northern NY and northern New England Monday night. Day 2
snow probs for >4" are 40-80% for the northern Adirondacks,
northern VT/NH, and northern Maine.


Jackson

$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 030807
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
307 AM EST Mon Feb 3 2025

Valid 12Z Mon Feb 03 2025 - 12Z Thu Feb 06 2025

...Western U.S. across the Northern Rockies... Days 1-3...

...Atmospheric River (AR) and upper low maintain prolonged heavy
snow from Oregon/California border and Sierra Nevada to the
Northern Rockies through Wednesday...

Current WV satellite imagery pinpoints our two distinct features
that have been controlling the ambient weather pattern across the
Western half of the CONUS. The first is an analyzed ULL centered
over Vancouver island that has provided significantly lower heights
across the PAC Northwest. The steady onshore component of the mean
flow has provided waves of small mid-level perturbations to meander
onshore with light precip in-of the Cascades of WA/OR. The main
player in the ULL positioning is the aid it has provided for our
second "player" within atmospheric schema; a progression of
shortwave troughs moving ashore within a west to east aligned
stationary boundary bisecting NorCal through the Northern Sierra,
extending inland to as far east as the Absaroka and Wind River
Ranges in western WY. Each shortwave pulse has aided in increased
IVT advection with a highly anomalous (+5 to +8 deviations via
NAEFS) transport of PAC moisture into the confines of the above
locations and everywhere in-between (Northern NV thru ID). This
direct moisture source has provided a steady ground for moderate to
heavy snowfall within the higher terrain confined over the above
locations with the upslope component within the Shasta/Siskiyou
areas aiding in heavy snow totals >12" above 6500ft.

This pattern will maintain general continuity given the prolonged
structure of the AR wave train with some adjustment in the aligned
flow likely to occur later this afternoon. A more amplified
shortwave trough coupled with a southwestern retrograde of the ULL
off the BC coast will provide a slightly more meridional component
to the flow with a greater southwest-northeast alignment shifting heavier precip further south compared to the past 24-36 hrs. This will
generate a better signal for heavy snow within the Northern Sierra
with areas along I-80 getting into the greater potential for
significant snowfall Monday night and beyond. The pattern evolution
will manifest itself for a period of 24-36 hrs before the primary
shortwave trough currently centered over the Pacific finally shunts
eastward with a landfall timing centered around Tuesday night,
kicking out of the area later Wednesday morning. This will lead to
significant snowfall across the Northern and Central Sierra on
Tuesday through that Wednesday morning time frame totals >12"
highly likely within the latest snowfall probability fields for D1
and D2 (50-80%).

Further inland, the pattern progression will provide some changes
in the overall time frames of impact as the realignment of the mean
flow will allow for the heavier snowfall encompassing portions of
ID through western WY to scale back in intensity with more
lingering light to moderate snowfall anticipated late Monday night
through much of Tuesday. Current snowfall totals across the
Absaroka and Wind River Ranges have been pretty significant since
the beginning of the pattern evolution with the inland extension
of the AR so any additional accumulation will still provide
impacts, but will at least curb the heaviest precip threat to
points further northwest. Conditions will deteriorate over Central
ID into the Northwest Rockies in MT thanks to the flow alignment
and shortwave perturbations advecting overhead. Probs for >8" over
those areas will rise to 70-90% during the D2 time frame, a
considerable adjustment compared to the previous periods.

The aforementioned shortwave over the Pacific will move inland of
CA with sights downstream over the Northern Rockies during the D3
time frame leading to a secondary pulse of heavier snowfall back
across the interior with an emphasis on the Absaroka and Wind River
Ranges once again. Associated upper-level speed max with the
disturbance will nose inland with the Northern Rockies situated
within the LER of a 125kt jet streak providing ample support for a
better defined QPF maxima that will situate itself over the above
areas. High probs are forecast for >8" (40-70%) on D3 likely
bringing totals over the course of 5-days to 3 to 6' thanks to the
onslaught of heavier precip and broad upslope flow within the
interior ranges of the west.

...Great Lakes, Upper Midwest, & Northeast... Day 1...

Persistent zonal flow regime will continue through D1 with an
analyzed speed max over the Northern Plains this morning pushing
eastward within the west to east aligned flow. Nose of the 25H jet
will push through the Upper Midwest, eventually nosing into the
northern Lower Peninsula of MI with a swath of snowfall breaking
out just before the beginning of the period. As the jet core moves
overhead, increasing ascent under the influence of the jet will
generate a period of moderate to heavy snowfall as regional omega
improves significantly within the 850-600mb layer as progged by
recent bufr soundings in the zone of interest. A solid 3500' of
favorable DGZ depth provides a sufficient layer for better crystal
growth that will promote a better defined dendrite scheme during
peak snowfall later this morning and afternoon before the setup
wanes. The progressive nature of the event will limit the max
potential below double-digits, however west-east aligned banding
signatures within recent CAMs signal areas that could benefit from
prolonged longitudinal banding with the storm motion also focused
on a similar west to east alignment. Areas that can situate within
persistent banding will likely experience rates ~1"/hr for several
hours before the event fades as primary forcing shifts eastward
into Ontario and eventually the Northeast U.S. Snowfall probs for

4" are forecast between 40-70% across the Door Peninsula of WI,

extending east through the northern half of the Lower MI peninsula
with a maxima focused downwind of Grand Traverse Bay, including the
town of Gaylord.

Further downstream over Upstate New York and New England, the same
jet presence upstream over the Great Lakes will shift focus into
the interior Northeast with increasing ascent generally aligned
over areas downwind of Lake Ontario within the Tug Hill and
Adirondacks, eventually encompassing Northern New England with the
greatest impacts in-of the Green and White Mountains of VT/NH. The
strongest signal for heavy snow is within the Adirondacks and
adjacent North Country with probs for >4" upwards of 70-90% within
those zones with 40-70% extending back towards the Tug Hill and
points west near Pulaski and north along I-81. Snow levels across
New England will be sufficient for snowfall above 1000', however
greater impacts will be mainly relegated to zones above 2000' with
a strong gradient in the snow probability fields for >4" with <20%
in those lower elevations with a solid 50-80% within the highest
elevations of the Green and White Mountains.

Light ice accumulations will be found across areas of Northern PA
and Western NY within a shallow moist layer present south of the
main axis of lift, especially in the post-frontal regime that will
transpire as the disturbance exits through Northern New England.
Totals will be solidly <0.1" with a majority of the ice accretion
likely relegated to a glaze to perhaps 0.01-0.05" at max.

Day 3...

Secondary disturbance(s) originating upstream across the Northern
and Central Rockies will eject eastward within a very progressive
upper flow evolution. Northern wave over WY/MT will progress east-
northeast across the Northern Plains with snowfall breaking out
downstream within a increasingly diffluent mid-level pattern.
Light to moderate snow will transpire over Dakotas with the
greatest impactful snowfall likely to occur over the Upper Midwest
in MN, especially as the disturbance moves into the Arrowhead by
the end of D3. Modest probabilities of >4" exist within northern MN
and the Arrowhead with a swath of 40-60% located over Duluth and
points northeast, as well as the northern most reaches of MN with
the highest probs long the Canadian border.

...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic... Day 3...

Second disturbance referenced in the section above will motion more
west to east across the Plains into the Ohio Valley and Mid
Atlantic by the second half of D3. High pressure over the Great
Lakes will shift eastward into the Northeast U.S by the beginning
of D3 with cold air funneling south into the Mid Atlantic with
guidance signaling a classic CAD wedge pattern initiating east of
the Appalachian front. Limited blocking downstream over the North
Atlantic will preclude any chance for the high pressure to hang on
across the region with the continued eastward progression of the
surface ridge eventually shifting off the Atlantic seaboard.
Despite its positioning, time frame of interest for precipitation
across the Ohio Valley and Northeast will be occurring after peak
diurnal heating with wet bulb temperatures into the upper 20s and
low 30s by the time precipitation breaks out across areas of IN/OH
over into the Central Mid-Atlantic. Primary concern with the
pattern is the low to mid-level WAA regime as the surface
reflection encroaches from the west leading to a mixed ptype likely
correlating to more icy (IP/ZR) hydrometeors compared to plain
snow that we will see for points well to the north. Recent trends
within deterministic have been for colder wedge to hang on more
thoroughly for places east of the Apps with the highest ice probs
located in- of the Laurel Highlands due to elevation factors
leaning colder at precip onset, as well as a secondary ice maxima
over the northern Ohio Valley where cold air will be able to hang
on through much of the event given stronger WAA pattern displaced
further downstream into the Mid-Atlantic comparatively.

Ice probs of >0.1" are very high (80+%) across west-central PA
with the focus in-of the Laurel Highlands where even some modest
20-40% probs for >0.25" of ice accretion are forecast as of the
latest WWD progs. Northern Ohio Valley doesn't carry the
probabilistic maxima for >0.25" like the mountains to the east,
however >0.1" ice accretion is sufficiently within the 40-70%
range, very much a non-trivial depiction that will have to be
monitored closely. Lower probs exist within the Central Mid
Atlantic east of the Blue Ridge, however a similar prob of 40-70%
for >0.1" of ice exists for locations northwest of the fall line
across MD extending into southern PA with lower, non-zero probs
further east into the I-95 corridor and adjacent lowlands. Setup is
delicate with multiple variables involved including depth of cold
air, strength of LLJ providing WAA pattern, as well as timing of
precip onset. These factors will determine the magnitude of ice
potential in-of the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley with guidance
starting to hone in on specifics as we move closer to the event.

Kleebauer
$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 070818
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
318 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

Valid 12Z Fri Feb 07 2025 - 12Z Mon Feb 10 2025

...Pacific Coast through the Northern/Central Rockies... Days 1-2...

Active period of winter weather continues over the next few days
throughout the West as a potent area of low pressure progresses
across the Intermountain West and Rockies through early Saturday,
while onshore flow continues throughout the Pacific Northwest in
concert with a cold airmass in place.

Low pressure currently analyzed entering the OR High Desert early
this morning is expected to track into ID today and drag along IVT
up to the 99th climatological percentile within areas of snowfall
per the 12z NAEFS. The northern precipitation shield extending
across OR, ID, and the northern Rockies will be mainly associated
with strong mid-level WAA through tonight before the upper trough
begins to shear within fast-zonal flow across the north-central
United States. Snow levels are expected to be around 3,000-5,000ft
throughout central ID, western WY and far southwestern MT, with
much lower snow levels just to the north within the arctic airmass
intruding from western Canada. Precipitation is also ongoing across
the Sierra Nevada this morning, but should come to an end by this
afternoon. WPC probabilities for at least 6 inches are high (>70%)
on D1 across the Sawtooths of ID and from the Wasatch Mts of UT
through the western ID and southwest MT ranges. These high probs
also extend into the northern CO ranges on D2 as upslope flow
enhances with the approaching cold front.

Elsewhere, weak area of low pressure moving onshore the PacNW early
D2 is expected to spread light snow and snow showers throughout the
region where deep cold air remains in place. This results in snow
levels outside of the immediate coast under a few hundred feet. WPC probabilities D1-D2 for at least 4 inches of snow are high
(60-90%) across the Cascades.

...Northern Plains through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley... Days 1-2...

As the potent shortwave exits the Northern Rockies Friday evening
and begins to race east within flat/progressive flow entrenched
across the CONUS, a west-east oriented band of snowfall is forecast
to spread across the north-central United States. This shortwave
trough will remain positively tilted through its evolution across
the region and has trended flatter/weaker over the last few
forecast cycles, but still falls within a favorable jet streak
environment and associated PVA to produce impressive omega. This deep
layer lift as well as enhanced IVT (progged to exceed the 90th
percentile of the CFSR climatology into the Plains/Upper Midwest).

This moisture will be additionally enhanced by a surge of
WAA/isentropic ascent, especially along the 285-295K surfaces,
downstream of the parent shortwave. At the same time, the DGZ is
progged to deepen considerably in response to this WAA, which is
reflected by SREF DGZ 100mb depth probabilities reaching 50% from
the SD-ND border through central MN and into central WI. With the
column being quite cold, this could result in fluffy and efficient
dendrites that can accumulate rapidly. However, it should be noted
that the best fgen lies at the top of this DGZ, so may not really
manifest as an efficient "cross-hatch" signature for snow growth,
and with the column so cold large aggregates will be difficult to
achieve. Still, an above-climo SLR seems likely, and snowfall rates
of 1-2"/hr should be supported within this translating swath of snow.

The progressive nature of the system combined with the slightly
less than ideal snow growth, will somewhat limit total snowfall,
but a swath of 4-8 inches still appears likely. The weaker/flatter
upper shortwave has lead to a slight northward trend with recent
guidance and will need to be monitored for short term mesoscale
trends. Current WPC probabilities are 50-70% for 6+ inches across
central MT just to the north of Billings. These probs then lower
over the High Plains before increasing again near in the northern
Plains/Upper Midwest. D1-D2 WPC probabilities for at least 6 inches
are low (10-20%) along the ND-SD border and increase to medium
(30-60%) across central MN and central WI as better jet dynamics
increase lift over this region. This stripe of snow will also
extend into the L.P. of MI Saturday afternoon, with 30-50% probs of 6+ inches.

Farther to the southeast, the WAA will lift a warm nose more
robustly immediately downstream of a developing surface low into
the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley, primarily after 12Z Saturday. This
will cause a stripe of mixed precipitation to develop from
Illinois through eastern Ohio, resulting in another round of
accumulating sleet/freezing rain across these areas. WPC
probabilities for 0.01" of ice are moderate (40-70%) from eastern
IL through eastern OH, with locally more than 0.1" possible
(10-30%) in IN/OH.

...Mid-Atlantic and Northeast... Days 1-3...

Behind a strong low deepening in far eastern Canada, a potent cold
front will race quickly southeast in its wake, leading to
pronounced CAA and briefly impressive low- level convergence. This
will have a two- pronged impact to winter weather across the
Northeast. The first will be an increased threat for convective
snow showers and snow squalls Friday morning, especially across
Upstate NY and into Northern New England. Although the timing of
the front is not ideal for impressive squalls, there is forecast to
be enough overlap of low level RH, fgen, and instability to
support scattered to widespread convective snow showers and
isolated squalls. This is supported by simulated reflectivity in
the high-res CAMs as well as HREF probabilities showing low-end
chances for 1+"/hr rates. Additionally, current radar observations
and a recent Snow Squall Warning issued across western NY confirms
the ingredients for convective pockets of snow are in
place. Accumulations with any squalls will be minor, but briefly
heavy rates and lowered visibility could cause hazardous travel.

Then behind this front, CAA causes a drop in 850mb temperatures to
support sfc-850mb delta T nearing 20C across Lake Ontario (Lake
Erie is now completely ice covered). EL's approaching 15,000 ft
over Lake Ontario will help support a single band of lake effect
snow (LES) with rates at times reaching 1-2"/hr beginning this
aftn and persisting into Saturday aftn, with some upstream
connection to Lake Huron aiding in the threat. This will likely
lead to some heavy snowfall accumulations, especially across the
Tug Hill Plateau, where WPC probabilities for 4+ inches of snow D1
are above 70%, leading to LES total snowfall as much as 12 inches
in isolated areas.

A more significant system begins to take shape on D2. Despite the
generally flat and progressive flow across the CONUS, a potent
shortwave trough ejecting from the Plains will move into the Ohio
Valley by 00Z/Sun, and then continue rapidly east across New
England on Sunday. This will be accompanied by an impressive upper
jet streak progged to reach 170kts as it arcs across the northern
tier of the CONUS, with New England anticipated to be located in
the left-exit region for favorable upper divergence and increased
ascent. Downstream and to the south of this overlapping synoptic
ascent, a wave of low pressure will begin to develop along a warm
front as it lifts northward in response to intensifying WAA,
leading to an expansion of precipitation on D2 from the Ohio Valley
northeast through the Mid- Atlantic and into New England.

High pressure ahead of this developing low will retreat to the east
Sunday, with the resultant isentropic ascent maximizing along the
290-300K surfaces. Mixing ratios within this lift are quite
impressive, 4+g/kg, which will push a plume of PWs exceeding the
90th percentile according to the NAEFS climatology into the Mid-
Atlantic and Southern New England. As this low skirts east off the
NJ coast, it will likely intensify south of New England, and the
resultant ageostrophic flow and CAA in its wake will halt the
progression of the accompanying warm nose, keeping mixed
precipitation confined to the Mid-Atlantic states. There remains
some uncertainty along the northern and southern fringes of the
snowfall forecast, with QPF the question for northern New England,
and ptype the question along southern New England. However, in
between there is increasing confidence in a swath of heavy
snowfall (around 5-8 inches on average) from Upstate New York
through much of New England. Despite the fast moving system, WPC
probabilities for at least 6 inches of snow are high (70-80%) from
the southern Adirondacks eastward to the Boston metro area and
neighboring portions of southern VT/NH.

Additionally, a swath of moderate to heavy icing is expected
across the Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states as a warm
nose quickly leads to sleet/freezing rain as the predominant ptype
within the climatologically favorable CAD regions. WPC probs for
more than 0.1" of ice are above 80% (20-40% for 0.25" in the Laurel
Highlands and MD Panhandle), with 50-70% 0.1" probs extending
across northern MD and southern PA.

Snell/Weiss

...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please see current
Key Messages below...

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/LatestKeyMessage_2.png

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FOUS11 KWBC 090835
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
335 AM EST Sun Feb 9 2025

Valid 12Z Sun Feb 09 2025 - 12Z Wed Feb 12 2025

...Great Lakes and Northeast...
Days 1-2...

A significant winter storm will wind down this morning across New
England as an area of low pressure pulls away from southern New
England leading to rapid drying and renewed CAA. Light snow should
finally come to an end along coastal regions by about 16z or so.
However, the CAA behind the accompanying cold front will setup an
environment favorable for LES E/SE of Lake Ontario and SE Lake
Superior. Shifting winds (more N/NW early, becoming more W D2 and
weakening by D3) will result in a shifting band of LES. Latest
Great Lakes ice analysis shows Lake Ontario remaining mostly ice
free with surface water temperatures around 3 to 4 degrees C. For
D1, the most significant accumulations are likely in the northern
Finger Lakes region, where they have a 70-90% chance of exceeding
4" near the lake shore, with D3 probabilities for 4+ inches
reaching 50-70% focused in the Tug Hill Plateau. Additionally,
probabilities for 4+ inches are 30-50% D1-2 across the Keweenaw
Peninsula and near Whitefish Point in the U.P. of MI.


...Central Plains through the Mid-Atlantic...
Days 2-3...

The next in this parade of systems across the CONUS begins to
develop D2/Monday as a shortwave trough ejects from near Baja and
then moves east into the Southern Plains by Tuesday evening. This
shortwave will remain embedded within a longwave trough axis as it
moves east through its evolution, but 00z guidance has trended
slightly more amplified with the longwave pattern. This subtle change
can be traced to a more consolidated western trough and faster Pac
NW shortwave that pumps up the eastern U.S. ridge ever so slightly
in order to prompt more southwesterly upper flow as opposed to
straight zonal winds. This trend, should it persist, would give the
impressive IVT (up to the 97.5th climatological percentile per the
12z NAEFS) the ability to bring the precipitation shield a bit
farther north across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic, where snow
is the dominant ptype. Additionally, upper diffluence will likely
increase with time as a downstream jet streak intensifies towards
150kts and arcs sufficiently poleward while leaving its tail across
the Central Plains and into the Lower MS VLY by Tuesday evening.
This will provide additional deep layer ascent as the system
organizes over the Mid-Atlantic through D3 and promoting a longer
duration moderate to heavy snowfall. Snow ratios for a majority of
the event are expected to remain around climo or slightly below
(8-11:1) due to an elevated DGZ and strong winds through it. So,
the main question remains how far north and how heavy QPF is should
the more amplified trend continue.

Light snow is expected to develop first across the central Plains
and Mid-Mississippi Valley on D2 as the upper jet begins to
intensify over the central U.S., which then begins to quickly
expand eastward into the Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians on D3.

WPC probabilities at this time for snowfall are highest for 4+
inches in the higher elevations of WV/VA where they peak above 70%,
and locally 6+ inches of snow is possible. Elsewhere, WPC
probabilities for 4" have increased and reach 40-60% across
central/northern VA, MD, and DE. Probabilities for at least 2" are
low 10-20% across the central Plains and Mid-Mississippi Valley,
but increase to above 70% across eastern KY and western WV.

There also exists the potential for an area of mixed ptype
associated with this system, one over the Ozarks of AR and a more
impressive area extending from western NC to southwest VA. The set
up supports a potentially significant ice storm in the Piedmont
and Foot Hills of the central/southern Appalachians where a
classic CAD setup and overrunning precip combine to create an
environment ripe for freezing rain. Large high pressure spanning
across the northern and eastern U.S. through Tuesday will
consolidate and reposition over southern Quebec by early Wednesday.
As a constant flow of precipitation remains aimed at the southern
Appalachians, cold northerly flow at the surface also continues
along and just east of the Blue Ridge Mts. while modest mid-level south-southwesterly flow brings the warm nose into central VA. As
a result, WPC probabilities for at least 0.25" of ice have
increased to around 20-40% from northwest NC to much of southwest
VA east of the continental divide. Additional freezing rain is also
likely during the period following D3, with moderate- level WSSI-P
values up to 40-60%. Lower probabilities of 10-30% for at least
0.1" of ice exist across the AR Ozarks.


...Central Rockies and Central Plains...
Day 3...

Another winter storm will quickly develop by the end of D3 (Tuesday
night) across the central Rockies/Plains as the aforementioned long
wave trough over the West begins to lift northeastward due to
interacting shortwaves initially over the Northeast and near
northern Baja California. This interaction reinvigorates the
extended and strong jet streak arching from the Mid-Mississippi
Valley to New England, prompting optimal upper diffluence in the
central Plains. At the surface, large high pressure up to the 99th climatological percentile per the 12z NAEFS will supply cold air
throughout much of the Plains and a cold front well south to the
Southern Plains. Thus, forcing will be mostly elevated and for the
northern parts of the precipitation shield a very deep DGZ (over
300 mb for parts of KS, NE, and IA Monday morning per the 00z GFS)
and very light winds could support snow ratios well above climo.
WPC probabilities through the end of the forecast period (12z
Wednesday) reach above 70% in the highest terrain of the CO Rockies
and are 40-70% for much of western and central KS, with the
majority of snowfall expected from this event after 12z Wednesday.


Snell

$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 130856
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

Valid 12Z Wed Feb 12 2025 - 12Z Sat Feb 15 2025

...Great Lakes and Northeast...
Day 1...

Low pressure moving through the Ohio Valley this morning will
continue northeastward into southeastern Ontario, with broad WAA-
driven snow over northern New England D1 and an icy mix where
boundary layer sub-freezing temperatures persist beneath the
warming layer ~750-850mb (e.g., North Country, Green and White
Mountains). By this afternoon, a forming area of low pressure near
the Gulf of Maine will help maintain a colder column over much of
Maine, favoring more snow for the Pine Tree State via northerly
flow. After 00Z, the whole system will depart into Atlantic Canada.
WPC snowfall probs for >4" are highest (>50%) in the higher
elevations of the Adirondacks and Green/White Mountains, as well as
over the northern half of Maine. Freezing rain probs for >0.1" ice
are low (10-20%) over parts of central New England.

In its wake, NW/WNW/W flow across the mostly unfrozen Great Lakes
will support lake effect snow as 850mb temps of -15 to -20C move
across the region. WPC probabilities for >6" low (10-50%) over the
eastern U.P. of MI but are high (>70%) south of Buffalo with some
moisture flux through the ice and especially southeast off Lake
Ontario just north of SYR up to FZY. Snowfall totals locally over a
foot are possible.


...Sierra Nevada, Pacific Northwest through the Rockies...
Days 1-3...

...Atmospheric River with heavy Sierra Nevada snow affects
California tonight into Friday. Key Messages are linked below...

Upper low approaching 130W this morning is directing an
atmospheric river (AR) into NorCal then shifts south down the coast
to SoCal tonight as the low opens/splits into a slow-moving trough.

The atmospheric river has IVT around 500 kg/m/s (near the MAX in
the CFSR climo period) making for a wave of moderate to heavy
topographically- enhanced precip over the Sierra Nevada. Snow
levels around 6000-7000ft across CA this morning will drop back to
5000-6000ft under the trough axis tonight (Sierra) and around
4500ft (Shasta/Trinity). SLRs will be low to moderate given the
strong WAA, resulting in plenty of Sierra cement (>5ft and perhaps

8ft at the highest peaks). Snowfall rates will lessen into early

Friday (as SLRs rise a bit) and end completely by Friday night as
upper ridging builds in.

The lingering cold air brings light lowland snow and icing
potential for southern WA through western OR. Freezing rain threat
will advance northward on the edge of the precip shield this
morning from western OR (Coastal Ranges) northward across the
Columbia River into southwestern WA. WPC probs for >0.1" are
moderate (40-80%) for mainly the Coast Ranges west of the
Willamette Valley.

Moisture quickly spreads east throughout the Intermountain West
through Friday ahead of the slow-moving trough axis. Moisture
transport into the Great Basin and Wasatch/Rockies will be notable
per the ECMWF EFI and NAEFS IVT percentiles >99th percentile. WPC
probs for >8" are above 80% for the Tetons through the Wasatch and
Tushar Mtns (UT) and across the western slopes of the CO Rockies
with >60% probs for the Sawtooths of ID, and Kaibab Plateau in AZ
and northern NM ranges. Snow rates peak early Fri from west to east
as the trough axis drifts over the Rockies, but broad light to
locally moderate snow persists over much of the terrain into early
Sat (end of D2). By Sat/D3, the last piece of the broad longwave
trough will slip through the central Rockies, yield another several
inches of snow centered over western CO where WPC probs for at
least 6 inches are moderate (40-70%).

Finally, a sprawling North Pacific system will enter the PacNW at
the end of D3 with generally light snow for the WA Cascades.


...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes/Northeast...
Days 2-3...

Leading edge of the western trough Friday afternoon will manifest
itself at the poleward exit region of a 140kt upper jet across the
Plains and near the equatorward entrance region of the northern
stream jet across southern Ontario. This will promote broad lift
over the Upper Midwest with accompanying WAA atop an inverted
surface trough. Quick westward flow aloft will keep the system
moving through the region, but potential exists for a quick-hitting
few inches of snow with room for some localized bands of heavier
snow across WI. WPC probs for >4" snow are >50% over much of
central and southern WI to the IL border and into Lower MI.

Farther east into D3, snow will expand into the Northeast on
continued WAA ahead of a deepening upper trough and strengthening
upper jet arced from the Lower MS Valley to the St. Lawrence River
Valley. Light to moderate snow is forecast across southern Ontario
eastward into NY and New England where WPC probs for >4" snow are
moderate (40-70%), especially above 1500ft or so. Across the
interior Mid-Atlantic, cold surface temperatures from the departing
high pressure will be overrun with WAA precip, resulting in areas
of freezing rain from the southern Appalachians northward through
the Laurel Highlands into the Catskills. WPC probs for at least
0.1" icing are moderate (40-70%) with low-end (10-30%) probs for at
least 0.25" icing. This will depend on how strong the southerly
flow will be to scour out the cold surface temperatures vs precip
timing/onset and intensity.

Fracasso/Jackson

...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please see current
Key Messages below...

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/LatestKeyMessage_2.png

$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 180811
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
311 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2025

Valid 12Z Tue Feb 18 2025 - 12Z Fri Feb 21 2025


...Great Lakes...
Days 1-3...

Cyclonic flow over southern Canada and the Great Lakes on the
western side of the elongated upper trough axis will favor a
continuation of the lake effect snow for the next couple of days.
With 850 temperatures in the -20sC and NW to WNW flow, multi-bands
will form off the Upper Lakes with a strong single band off Lake
Ontario with an impressive multi-lake moisture feed. THe pattern
will be slow to unfold, but by early Wednesday a closed low will
begin to form over the Corn Belt which will help disrupt the
pattern enough to diminish the lake effect snow, but then those
height falls will bring in a general/light snow to the region on
Thursday. WPC probabilities for at least 8 inches of snow over the
next two days are near 50% over the eastern U.P. of Michigan. Over
central NY between ROC-FZY-SYR, the strong single band will
continue to dump snow at 1-3"/hr rates with significant
accumulation in a narrow swath -- perhaps more than 12-18 inches

60% probs). By day 3, snowfall will be light with most areas

seeing less than 4 inches of snow.


...Pacific Northwest through the Central Rockies...
Days 1-3...

Height falls over the Great Basin this morning will continue
southeastward today, giving some additional snow to the CO Rockies.
To the north, additional height falls out of Canada will drop
through central MT with some light snow to the central ID ranges,
southwestern MY, and the western WY ranges where WPC probabilities
for at least 6 inches of snow are low (<40%) to the north but high

70%) over western WY and the high peaks of the northern CO Rockies.

By day 2, a Pacific system will start to move into the Northwest,
spanning the latitudes from NorCal up to the Canadian border. IVT
will be modestly high (~90th percentile) into NorCal/southern
OR/northern NV toward Idaho, supporting light to moderate snows for
the terrain with snow levels near 3000ft to the north and 5000ft
to the south that will rise a bit as the core of the moisture plume
pushes through. The system will move steadily along and clear the
coast with QPF starting early Thursday, pushing into northern
UT/southern ID and into the Rockies. However, moisture will wane
and snow will become lighter overall into D3 with the snow confined
mainly to the Unitas and higher CO Rockies by then. For the 3-day
period, WPC probabilities for at least 8 inches of snow are highest

70%) over the higher terrain above 6000ft closer to the coast,

7000-8000ft over the Great Basin, and 9000ft over CO/WY.


...Central Plains through the Mid-Atlantic States...
Days 1-2...

A significant winter storm is underway over the Central Plains
which will spread eastward through the Mid-South into the southern
Mid-Atlantic with potentially major impacts including heavy snow
and significant ice.

Snow is already underway across KS into MO this morning, driven by
lead shortwaves ahead of the Rockies trough. Through this morning,
as the stronger height falls approach the region, snow will expand
over the central and southern Plains eastward beneath the RRQ of
the upper jet and atop the Arctic air mass driven in by the strong
cold front overnight. With sufficient moisture influx from the
Gulf, snow rates will increase over southern KS into southern MS
later this morning into the afternoon with >1"/hr rates at times
per the WPC snowband tool and HREF probs. Snow will advance
eastward into the Mid-South later this evening and overnight but
likely diminish somewhat in intensity. To the south, the shallow
Arctic air mass will continue southward but southerly flow aloft
will maintain >0C temperatures, favoring a mix of sleet and
freezing rain over parts of OK into AR, northern LA, and western
MS. For the D1 period, WPC probabilities of at least 4 inches of
snow are high (>70%) from southeastern KS and northeastern OK
eastward to western KY. Within this region, probabilities of at
least 8 inches of snow are >60% near Joplin to Springfield, MO.
Icing to the south should generally be light but there is a low
change (10-30%) of at least 0.10" accretion near the Oachita
Mountains in AR.

By Wednesday morning, the next phase of the system will take shape
over the northern Gulf as the entrance region of the upper jet
touches the LA/MS coast, helping to favor cyclogenesis. The
northern part of the system will still spread snow across the Mid-
South eastward to the central Appalachians where some orographic
lift will help wring out several inches of snow into eastern
KY/southern WV/southwestern VA. The larger QPF-maker will be the
forming Gulf low that is forecast to track ENE to NE across north
FL before turning northeastward along the Gulf Stream just off the
SC/NC coasts. With the cold air mass in place through the East,
this sets up a southern slider snow event with an axis of heavy
snow along the VA/NC border into the Tidewater and southern
DelMarVa. The incoming northern stream upper low will lag behind
just enough to not phase until farther downstream, but enough
ingredients will be coming into place in the formative stages of
this system to yield a modest to heavy snowfall for parts of the
southern Mid-Atlantic, with a cutoff near a line along I-66/I-95
into southern NJ. WPC probabilities for at least 6 inches of snow
are highest over southeastern VA and northeastern NC, squarely
through the Norfolk area.

Like places farther west, the >0C air aloft will rise up and over
the cold surface temperatures over eastern NC, setting up a
freezing rain event that may be significant along and east of I-95
between the VA border and into northeastern SC. There, WPC
probabilities for at least 0.10" icing are >50% with some areas
receiving more than 0.25" accretion.


...Southeastern Mass...
Day 3...

The exiting system from the Southeast/southern Mid-Atlantic will
track northeastward, and may clip southeastern MA/Cape Cod D3 on
its way into Atlantic Canada. The question revolves around the
speed of the incoming northern stream upper low and how much it can
capture the exiting system. Given the uncertainty leading into the
event in the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic, there are still a wide range
of solutions from zero to moderate snow over part of the region.
For now, there are low (10-40%) probabilities of at least 4 inches
of snow over Cape Cod and the Islands.


Fracasso


...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please see current
Key Messages below...

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/LatestKeyMessage_2.png

$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 220711
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
211 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

Valid 12Z Sat Feb 22 2025 - 12Z Tue Feb 25 2025



...Pacific Northwest through the Northern Rockies...
Days 1-3...

A closed mid-level low tracking slowly south of the Aleutians will
shed lobes of vorticity eastward and onshore the Pacific Coast,
spreading precipitation from the Pacific Northwest through the
Northern Rockies into early next week.

Generally W to SW flow will persist across the Pacific during this
time, with enhanced confluence south of the Aleutian Low enhancing
moisture advection and IVT as an atmospheric river (AR). Both ECENS
and GEFS probabilities indicate that IVT will almost certainly

90%) exceed 500 kg/m/s, with potentially 3 consecutive days of

IVT exceeding 250 kg/m/s surging onshore beginning this evening.
Within this moisture plume, PWs are progged by NAEFS to exceed the
99.5 percentile of the CFSR database, especially late D1 through
the end of D2 from the WA/OR coasts to as far inland as the Central
Rockies. Shortwaves/vorticity spokes rotating within this flow will
cause periodic enhancement to ascent leading to heavier and more
widespread precipitation. Although the timing of these features is
not fully agreed upon by the guidance, consensus suggests bouts of
heavier precipitation are likely beginning late D1 and again late
D2. While this will result in heavy snow in higher terrain features
across the region through the period, snow levels will climb
steadily within the AR/accompanying WAA. Snow levels begin the
period around 4000-6000 ft, then climb to as high as 7000-9000 ft,
especially during D2. This will keep most significant snow
accumulations above area pass levels.

Although waves of heavy snow are likely in the higher terrain each
day, the heaviest accumulations are forecast on D2 when WPC
probabilities support a high risk (>70%) for more than 6 inches of
snow across the higher WA Cascades, the Northern Rockies near
Glacier NP, the Sawtooth, and near the Grand Tetons/Yellowstone NP.
During D3, the highest probabilities shift back into the WA/OR
Cascades with slightly lower snow levels supporting high
probabilities (>70%) for more than 6 inches, and 3-day snowfall in
the Cascades could be measured in several feet above 5000 ft
elevation. Additionally, some light icing is expected in the
Columbia Basin and parts of eastern OR where WPC probabilities D2
reach 10-30% for up to 0.1" of ice.

Weiss

$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 230738
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
238 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

Valid 12Z Sun Feb 23 2025 - 12Z Wed Feb 26 2025

...Pacific Northwest through the Northern Rockies...
Days 1-3...

Long duration atmospheric river (AR) begins before the forecast
period, and continues through Tuesday. This AR is driven by
confluent mid-level flow overlapped by multiple impressive Pacific
jet streaks, resulting in pronounced onshore flow of moisture. The
accompanying IVT has a high probability (>80% from ECENS and GEFS)
of exceeding 500 kg/m/s through Monday, with a slow wane
thereafter. Within this plume of moisture, forcing for ascent will
be periodically enhanced by shortwave troughs rotating through the
flow as impulses shed from a strong closed mid-level low out over
the Pacific Ocean. Each of these impulses will produce enhanced
ascent to expand and intensify the accompanying precipitation,
leading to rounds of heavy snow from the Cascades through the
Northern Rockies. However, the WAA within the AR will lift snow
levels to as high as 8000 ft, before latitudinal variations develop
on either side of a stalled front.

For D1, a closed 500mb low pushing onshore British Columbia will
pulse a lobe of vorticity into WA state, accompanied favorably by
coupled jet streaks. This will combine with a cold front pushing
eastward to enhance ascent and drive rounds of heavy precipitation
from northern CA through the Northern Rockies, with upslope flow
into terrain features resulting in the heaviest accumulations of
precipitation. Snow levels during this time will rise to generally
6000-8000 ft, keeping snow confined above pass levels. However,
where it does snow, accumulations will be significant as reflected
by WPC probabilities that indicate a high risk (>70%) for 8+ inches
in the Sawtooth, Northern Rockies near Glacier NP, and the Tetons of WY.

This first front will then become elongated west-east as the
mid-level pattern becomes flattened in response to a sharper trough
approaching from the West. This will allow some colder air to drain
southward but remain confined generally to WA, northern ID, and MT,
with a sharp gradient in snow levels existing along this boundary
(3000 ft north, 6000 ft south). This will be relatively short lived
however, as the stronger trough axis drives a potent closed low and accompanying surface low towards the WA/OR coast late Monday. This
will once again result in enhanced ascent through WAA, PVA, and
upper diffluence, with a second surge in precipitation expanding
east across the area. Snow levels climb again to as high as 6000 ft
in many areas late Monday into early Tuesday, before the associated
cold front drives eastward by the end of the period. While this
will cause snow levels to fall quickly, it will also result in
rapid drying of the column, bringing an end to the heavy
precipitation.

D2 snowfall is likely to be heaviest along the spine of the
Cascades and into the Olympics of WA, where WPC probabilities are
high (>90%) for 8 inches, and locally 1-3 feet is possible in the
highest elevations. During D3 the heaviest precipitation spreads
inland as far as the Northern Rockies and into the vicinity of
Yellowstone NP, but the heaviest accumulations are likely again
across the WA Cascades where WPC probabilities are above 50% for an
additional 8+ inches of snow.


Weiss


$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 240647
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
147 AM EST Mon Feb 24 2025

Valid 12Z Mon Feb 24 2025 - 12Z Thu Feb 27 2025

...Pacific Northwest through the Northern Rockies...
Days 1-2...

Ongoing atmospheric river (AR) will intensify and continue through
today and into Tuesday before eroding as the driving trough pivots
inland. Until that occurs, persistent advection of moisture on IVT
exceeding 500 kg/m/s is expected into WA/OR and then spilling as
far east as portions of the Northern Rockies. This AR will be
driven by confluent flow downstream of an impressive closed low
(NAEFS 500-700mb height anomalies below -1 sigma) which will be
overlapped by a strengthening upper jet streak. Weak impulses
shedding eastward from this closed low as it moves into British
Columbia will help to periodically enhance ascent, with additional
lift likely in the vicinity of a surface low moving near the Strait
of Juan de Fuca Tuesday morning. Impressively confluent flow will
keep moisture advection nearly perpendicular to the Cascades and
other N-S ranges, leading to strong upslope ascent as well.

The guidance is well aligned overall with the synoptic and
mesoscale features, leading to high confidence in the evolution of
this event. However, the consensus has trended colder Monday in
areas north of a draped front from west-east near the WA/OR border.
This will keep snow levels more suppressed, generally remaining
around 3000-3500 ft in WA, ID, MT D1 before a slow rise occur late
D1 due to the enhanced WAA as a warm front lifts north ahead of
the surface low. Thereafter, snow levels crash again quickly during
D2 as the accompanying cold front pivots east. Despite the lowering
snow levels D2, this will occur in tandem with a drying column,
which indicates most of the heavy snow should accumulate only at
the higher elevations thanks to rapid wane of precipitation
coverage and intensity by the second half of D2.

WPC probabilities for heavy snow accumulating to more than 6 inches
are high (>90%) in the Olympics and along the crest of the Cascades
D1, with locally 2-3 feet possible at the highest elevations.
Additionally, impactful pass-level snow is likely especially at
some of the higher passes like Washington Pass. During D2, heavy
snow continues across the Cascades but also expands eastward
towards the Northern Rockies. WPC probabilities D2 are high (>70%)
for 6+ inches across the higher elevations of these ranges, before precipitation winds down into D3.


Weiss



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FOUS11 KWBC 250630
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
130 AM EST Tue Feb 25 2025

Valid 12Z Tue Feb 25 2025 - 12Z Fri Feb 28 2025

...Pacific Northwest through the Northern Rockies...
Day 1...

Strong surface low pressure will be moving eastward near the Strait
of Juan de Fuca, pivoting onshore beneath a strong but filling
upper level shortwave trough. This upper feature will weaken
rapidly as it gets replaced by upper level ridging, resulting in
the surface low eroding as it moves across WA state. E/SE of this
stacked system, the ongoing atmospheric river (AR) will persist
another 12 hours as reflected by GEFS/ECENS IVT probabilities,
surging moisture into the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies
D1. The lingering precipitation D1 is expected to be lighter than
the heavy amounts that have fallen already, but still should
result in heavy snow in the WA Cascades and Northern Rockies,
including the Bitterroots and Lewis Range, especially above
3000-3500 ft. In these areas, WPC probabilities for 6+ inches of
snow are high (>90%), and pass level impacts will continue until
snow wanes at the end of D1.


...Northeast...
Day 3...

A modest wave of low pressure will move northeast from the Great
Lakes across New England Thursday into Friday, with an accompanying
cold front trailing in its wake. The low will likely track across
central New England, with the accompanying WAA causing
precipitation to expand in the form of snow across northern New
England. Although the system will be fast moving, brief heavy snow
is likely in the higher terrain of the White Mountains of NH where
WPC probabilities reach 30-50% for 4+ inches of accumulations.
Later D3, as the cold front passes to the east, post-frontal
upslope flow will develop into the Adirondacks and northern Greens,
with modest lake enhancement occurring into the Tug Hill Plateau.
In these areas, WPC probabilities for 4+ inches reach 30-50% as
well, but generally later in the D3 period than what will occur
across the NH terrain.


Weiss

$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 260711
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
211 AM EST Wed Feb 26 2025

Valid 12Z Wed Feb 26 2025 - 12Z Sat Mar 01 2025

...Upper Great Lakes through the Northeast...
Days 2-3...

A series of shortwave troughs moving through the flow this week
will result in an amplified longwave trough deepening across the
eastern CONUS. This will create period of active wintry weather
from the Upper Great Lakes through northern New England.

The first of these shortwaves will pivot southeast from the Upper
Midwest Wednesday night, reaching the Great Lakes before 12Z
Thursday and then pushing into New England on Friday. This will
sharpen the associated longwave trough across the east, driving a
cold front across the region, which will be draped from a wave of
low pressure likely developing downstream of the lead shortwave. As
this low moves E/NE from Michigan to New England, accompanying WAA
will help spread precipitation northeastward as PWs surge to +1 to
+2 sigma according to NAEFS ensemble tables. The surface low
tracking across northern New England will allow precipitation to
start as snow in many places from Upstate New York into New
England, but changeover to a mix and then rain across all but the
higher terrain of the Adirondacks, Whites, and northern Maine.

Then as the subsequent cold front pushes through on Thursday,
upslope flow in a still moist column will drive periods of moderate
snowfall across the Adirondacks, Greens, and Tug Hill Plateau, the
latter aided by lake Ontario moisture enhancement. This will
result in locally heavy snow exceeding 4 inches as reflected by WPC probabilities D2 that are moderate to high (30-70%) across these
mountain ranges, with locally 6+ inches possible in the higher
terrain and across the Tug Hill Plateau.

A subsequent shortwave will race southeast immediately on the heels
of this first system, pushing an Alberta Clipper type low from
northern MN early Friday to New England Saturday. This system will
be compact and progressive, but a strengthening shortwave and
favorable positioning of an upper level jet streak will produce
significant ascent to spread moderate to heavy precipitation across
the region. Although this system will Alas be progressive, a
region of overlapping frontogenesis and deformation north of the
surface low will result in an axis of heavier precipitation, and
since the column will be quite cold behind Thursday's cold front,
this will produce a swath of heavy snow from the Arrowhead of MN,
across the U.P. of MI, eastward into northern New England. WPC
probabilities D3 are high (>70%) for 4+ inches from the eastern
U.P. through the far northern portion of the L.P., with 30-70%
chances for 4+ inches encompassing that region as far west as the
tip of the Arrowhead to as far east as the western Adirondacks.

Weiss


$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 270803
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
303 AM EST Thu Feb 27 2025

Valid 12Z Thu Feb 27 2025 - 12Z Sun Mar 02 2025


...Northeast...
Day 1...

The first in a pair of winter storms tracks through the Northeast
today. NAEFS shows a sub 1004mb low tracking through the eastern
Great Lakes that is below the 10th percentile. This low is also
directing a narrow >500 kg/m/s IVT towards New England that is
above the 90th climatological percentile. As anomalous moisture is
directed towards the northern Appalachians, a sufficiently cold
air-mass located over New England will support periods of snow,
particularly in the northern Appalachian ranges. With low-level WAA
and 290k isentropic glide aloft, periods of snow will be ongoing
from the Adirondack on east through the Green and White Mountains
this morning. As low pressure tracks into the Champlain Valley
around midday, snow will track into the northern two-thirds of
Maine with a wintry mix just north of the Maine coastline. The
storm will race northeast into the St. Lawrence Valley of southern
Quebec by Thursday evening with a dry slot moving in aloft that
effectively shuts off most accumulating snowfall beyond 00Z Friday.
WPC probabilities show low-to-moderate chances (30-50%) for
snowfall >6" in the peaks of the Green and White Mountains. Most
snowfall totals >500ft in elevation that are not in the Green and
White Mountains are most likely to see anywhere from 1-4" of
snowfall through Thursday afternoon. The WSSI does show a swath of
Minor Impacts from southern VT and central NH on east through the
southern half of Maine. Residents in these areas could contend with
hazardous driving conditions, particularly in areas with complex
terrain.


...Upper Great Lakes through the Northeast...
Days 2-3...

An unusually strong clipper system diving southeast from southern
Canada will head for the Upper Great Lakes on Friday. The storm
will reside beneath the diffluent left-exit region of a 90-100 knot
500mb jet streak, while also sporting an unusually strong NWrly IVT
that surpasses 300 kg/m/s on the western flank of the Clipper. The
low-level circulation at 850mb is also rather potent with heights
that are below the 0.5 climatological percentile by 18Z Friday
according to NAEFS. This equates to what would be a "front-end
thump" of heavy snow late Thursday night across the Minnesota
Arrowhead, then across the Michigan U.P. and far northern Michigan
Friday morning where the best 850mb FGEN ensues. Just north of the
850mb FGEN is where snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr are possible for
several hours. A dry slot and warming boundary layer should limit
snowfall over the Michigan U.P. and northern Michigan Friday
afternoon. As the storm heads east though, additional snow is
likely on the back side of the storm as low-level CAA over Lake
Superior increases Friday evening. Snow should taper off by
Saturday morning in the Upper Great Lakes. WPC probabilities show moderate-to-high chances (50-70%) for snowfall totals >6" in the
MN Arrowhead with similar chances for >8" in the Keweenaw
Peninsula, the, Huron Mountains, and eastern Michigan U.P..
Localized amounts approaching a foot are possible closer to Sault
Ste. Marie, MI.

The storm continues its march east into southern Ontario Friday
evening with the same method of producing periods of heavy snow as
far east as the Tug Hill and Adirondacks of northern New York.
Unlike the Upper Great Lakes, however, the storm track is farther
north through the St. Lawrence Valley. WPC's Snowband Probability
Tracker, utilizing the 00Z HREF guidance, shows the potential for
1"/hr rates from the Tug Hill to as far east as the Green and White
Mountains Friday night. The dryslot and warming low level-
temperatures arrive Saturday morning with only northern Maine
likely to still see periods of moderate-to-heavy snow through rest
of the day Saturday. Snow should taper off throughout the Interior
Northeast by Saturday night. WPC probabilities show moderate-to-
high chances (50-70%) for snowfall >6" in the Tug Hill and
Adirondacks neighboring the Tug Hill through Saturday morning.


Mullinax


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FOUS11 KWBC 280808
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
308 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

Valid 12Z Fri Feb 28 2025 - 12Z Mon Mar 03 2025


...Upper Great Lakes through the Northeast...
Days 1-2...

An unusually strong clipper system (MSLP below the first
climatological percentile per the ECMWF) diving southeast from
southern Canada will head for the Upper Great Lakes this morning.
The storm will reside beneath the diffluent left-exit region of a
90-100 knot 500mb jet streak, while also sporting an unusually
strong NWrly IVT that surpasses 300 kg/m/s on the western flank of
the surface low. The low-level circulation at 850mb is also rather
potent with heights that are below the 0.5 climatological
percentile by 18Z Friday according to NAEFS. This equates to what
is effectively a "front-end thump" of heavy snow that began
overnight in the Minnesota Arrowhead and is now heading for the
Michigan U.P. and far northern Michigan today where the best 850mb
FGEN occurs. The 00Z HREF suggests snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr are
possible for several hours this morning. A dry slot and warming
boundary layer should limit snowfall over the Michigan U.P. and
northern Michigan Friday afternoon, resulting in a narrow swath of
heavy snow. As the storm heads east though, additional snow is
likely on the back side of the storm as low-level cold-air
advection (CAA) over Lake Superior increases Friday evening. Snow
should taper off by Saturday morning in the Upper Great Lakes. WPC probabilities show moderate-to-high chances (50-70%) for snowfall
totals >6" in the MN Arrowhead with similar chances for >8" in the
Keweenaw Peninsula, Huron Mountains, and eastern Michigan U.P..
Localized amounts approaching a foot are possible closer to Sault
Ste. Marie, MI and neighboring communities to the south along the coast.

The storm continues its march east into southern Ontario Friday
evening with the same method of producing periods of heavy snow as
far east as the Tug Hill and Adirondacks of northern New York.
WPC's Snowband Probability Tracker, utilizing the 12Z HREF
guidance, shows the potential for 1"/hr rates from the Tug Hill to
as far east as the Green and White Mountains Friday night. Unlike
the Upper Great Lakes, however, the storm track is farther north
through the St. Lawrence Valley. This burst of heavy snow will
eventually give way to diminishing snowfall rates late Friday night
and into Saturday morning in these areas. By Saturday morning,
only northern Maine likely to still see periods of moderate-to-
heavy snow through rest of the day Saturday. However, as the
Arctic front approaches midday Saturday, steepening lapse rates
and strong upper-level ascent aloft is a recipe for snow squalls.
Plummeting temperatures could result in quick accumulations on some
surfaces, but the biggest concern is for dramatic reductions in
visibilities within impacted areas of northern New York and as far
east as northern New England Saturday afternoon. Travelers on
roadways should be sure to have a reliable way to receive snow
squall warnings should they be issued on Saturday. Snow should
gradually taper off throughout the Interior Northeast by Saturday
evening, with some lake-effect showers lingering into Sunday. WPC
probabilities show moderate-to-high chances (50-70%) for snowfall

6" in the Tug Hill and Adirondacks neighboring the Tug Hill

through Saturday morning. Similar probabilities for >4" of snowfall
are depicted across northern Maine, as well as the Green and White
Mountains through Sunday morning. Localized amounts topping 8" are
possible in the tallest peaks of the Green and White Mountains.


...California & Great Basin...
Day 3...

A closed upper-low approaching California on Sunday will direct an
IVT that is topping out not much higher than 250 kg/m/s at the
Sierra Nevada and Southern California ranges. 850mb and 700mb winds
topping the 90th climatological percentile (per NAEFS) may aid in
some modest upslope flow, but this IVT is not particularly strong,
which should limit most heavy amounts to the highest/more remote
elevations. Snow levels will be as low as 4,000ft from the Sierra
Nevada on east into the Great Basin, but the heavier amounts will
generally be confined to elevations above 6,000ft. Snow will fall
heaviest over the Sierra Nevada and as far north as the
Shasta/Siskiyou Sunday afternoon and into Sunday night. As the
upper low approaches Sunday night, Pacific moisture will spill over
into the Great Basin with moderate-to-heavy snowfall along the
ridge lines of central Nevada Sunday night and into Monday. WPC
probabilities depict moderate-to-high chance probabilities (50-70%)
for snowfall >8" at elevations above 7,000ft in the Sierra Nevada
through Monday morning. Similar moderate-to-high chance
probabilities for >4" of snowfall exist along the ridges of
central Nevada through Monday morning.


Mullinax



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FOUS11 KWBC 010805
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
305 AM EST Sat Mar 1 2025

Valid 12Z Sat Mar 01 2025 - 12Z Tue Mar 04 2025


...Great Lakes through the Northeast...
Day 1...

The winter storm responsible for periods of heavy snow in parts of
northern Michigan marches east into southern Ontario today. Periods
of snow will stick around from the White Mountains to northern
Maine this morning. Following a break in the snow this morning, the
passage of a strong Arctic front paired with a deep upper trough
approaching from the west will provide a source of lift aloft.
Combine increasing surface-based heating that steepens low-level
lapse rates, and the stage is set for scattered snow showers and
snow squalls from the Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley on east
through the Interior Northeast throughout much of the day Saturday.
Plummeting temperatures could aid in rapid snowfall accumulations
in wake of the cold frontal passage, but there is also a concern
for bursts of heavy snow and gusty winds that cause dramatic
reductions in visibility for those on roadways and for aviation.
Travelers on roadways should be sure to have a reliable way to
receive snow squall warnings should they be issued. Snow should
taper off not long after sunset Saturday evening, although some
residual lake-effect snow showers may stick around into parts of
Saturday night. WPC probabilities through 06Z Sunday show moderate-
to-high chances (50-70%) for >4" of additional snowfall in the Tug
Hill, the White Mountains, and far northern Maine.


...California & Great Basin...
Days 2-3...

A closed upper-low tracking into California on Sunday will direct
an IVT topping out around 250 kg/m/s at the Sierra Nevada and
Southern California ranges. While SWrly low-level winds may provide
some marginal upslope flow enhancement, this IVT is not
particularly strong, thus limiting most heavy amounts to the
highest/more remote elevations. Snow levels are expected to be as
low as 4,000ft from the Sierra Nevada on east into the Great Basin,
but the heavier amounts will generally be confined to elevations
above 6,000ft. Snow will fall heaviest over the Sierra Nevada and
as far north as the Shasta/Siskiyou Sunday afternoon and into
Sunday night. As the upper low approaches Sunday night, Pacific
moisture will spill over into the Great Basin with moderate-to-
heavy snowfall along the 6,000-7,000ft ridge lines of central
Nevada Sunday night and into Monday. Moisture and a potent upper
low will then eventually reach the central Rockies late Monday. WPC probabilities depict moderate-to-high chances (50-80%) for
snowfall >8" at elevations above 7,000ft in the Sierra Nevada
through Monday morning. Similar moderate-to-high chance
probabilities for >6" of snowfall exist along the ridges of
central Nevada through Monday evening.

...Northern & Central Rockies to the Central Plains...
Day 3...

The upper low responsible for the mountain snow in the mountain
ranges of California and the Great Basin will make its way into the
Central Rockies on Monday. Falling heights and residual Pacific
moisture will support moderate to locally heavy snowfall in the
Wasatch, Uinta, southern Wyoming Rockies, and northern Colorado
Rockies. WPC probabilities show moderate-to-high chances (50-80%)
for snowfall >6" at elevations above 9,000ft. Farther north,
temperatures will gradually cool as a cold front ushering in
Canadian high pressure moves south. Lingering Pacific moisture,
combined with weak easterly upslope flow will allow for light-to-
moderate snowfall in the Northern Rockies between Monday afternoon
and Tuesday morning.

There remains a fair amount of spread regarding the snow potential
in the Central and Northern Plains. The synoptic-scale jet stream
setup is generally agreed upon; a strong jet streak over northern
Mexico will place its divergent left-exit region over the central
Plains Monday night. Along with strong PVA ahead of the 500mb low
in the Rockies will result in cyclogenesis in lee of the Colorado
Rockies that will organize and strengthen a surface low rather
quickly by Tuesday. Where guidance differs are on the storm track,
the rate at which the storm deepens, and the extent to which the
colder air to the north is in place soon enough to result in a
swath of heavy snow in the Northern Plains. The GEFS members are
generally are a little faster, farther north, and deeper with the
storm by 12Z Tuesday compared to the ECENS which is slower and
farther south. The one thing these ensembles have in common is
focusing on the Palmer Divide and over the Raton Pass with strong
enough NErly upslope flow, along with strong dynamic cooling aloft
to support heavier snowfall. Even in this case, however, any faster
storm motion could mean less snowfall, and the opposite for
heavier snow should the storm slow down. Through 18Z Tuesday, WPC
probabilities show moderate chances (40-60%) for snowfall >4" along
the Palmer Divide, but lesser chances (10-20%) along Raton Pass.

With a lack of sufficiently cold air east of the Rockies, snowfall
potential will be more directly tied to the deformation axis
placement and dynamic cooling aloft from the Denver metro on north
and east. Residents in the Central and Northern Plains will want
to monitor the forecast closely over the weekend as this is a
complex storm system whose final storm track is not resolved yet.


Mullinax




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FOUS11 KWBC 060901
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
401 AM EST Thu Mar 6 2025

Valid 12Z Thu Mar 06 2025 - 12Z Sun Mar 09 2025

...Great Lakes and Maine...
Days 1-2...

Primary surface low near the northern Ontario/Quebec border will
continue to drift northeast through today. The negatively tilted
upper trough south of this low will shift up the Mid-Atlantic coast
today with rapid surface cyclogenesis tonight over the Gulf of
Maine. LES on northeasterly flow develops tonight over the eastern
U.P. and over Upstate NY (particularly near Syracuse) where Day
1.5 snow probs for >4" are 40-60%. Wrap around snow lifts over
eastern/northern Maine late tonight/Friday morning with Day 1.5
snow probs for >4" are 40-60% over northern Maine.


...Southwest, Central Rockies across the Central Plains into the
Midwest, then Southern Rockies, and Southern Plains...
Days 1-2...

...Heavy snow bands today into Friday from Wyoming across northern
Nebraska into northern Iowa...

Mid-level low along the far northern CA coast will shift south to
southern CA through tonight before further developing over the Four
Corners Friday night and shifting east to the TX Panhandle Saturday.
Meanwhile, the leading base of the trough currently over SoCal
will eject northeast over the southern Rockies by this afternoon,
across the central Plains tonight before weakening as it approaches
Chicago Friday.

Strengthening SWly jet ahead of the leading trough will allow for
quick ejection and rapid lee-side cyclogenesis over eastern CO/KS
this afternoon through tonight. Rapid banding of precip north of
this low will spread north over much of WY this morning, then shift
east over northern Neb tonight, persisting, but in a weakened state
over IA Friday. Snow totals have increased through this swath with
Day 1 snow probs for >8" over 80% in central WY terrain and 40-70%
over northern Neb. Ample Pacific moisture ahead of this wave will
keep snow levels over the Great Basin and Four Corners 4000-7000 ft
today, but will fall under the upper trough to 3000-4000ft. Day 1
WPC probabilities are high (>70%) for >8" across the terrain of
eastern NV, the Wasatch, Uintas, Wind Rivers, western CO ranges and
the highest terrain along the Mogollon Rim. Day 1 snow probs are
also high for >6" in the SoCal peninsular ranges.

SW of this secondary low, the pivoting upper low moving across the
Four Corners will drive another area of pronounced ascent leading
to periods of moderate to heavy snow across the Desert Southwest
and extending east through the TX/OK Panhandles. The column across
this region is modestly cold enough to support snow, with snow
levels around 5000-7000 ft, but steep lapse rates aloft beneath
the low will help cause strong lift to dynamically cool the
column. This suggests a mixture of rain and snow, becoming all snow
near the surface at times of heavier precipitation rates and in
terrain. Day 2.5 WPC for >6" are 40-80% over the southern Sangre
De Cristos with >4" probs 20-60% east of terrain such as the Raton
Mesa.


Jackson



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FOUS11 KWBC 070855
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
355 AM EST Fri Mar 7 2025

Valid 12Z Fri Mar 07 2025 - 12Z Mon Mar 10 2025

...New York/New England...
Days 1-3...

Negatively tilted longwave trough over New England will lift north
over the Canadian Maritimes today as the surface low continues to
develop on its transit of the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Heavy snow on
the back side of this surface low under the upper trough will
continue over eastern/northern Maine this morning where Day 1 PWPF
for >6" is 50-80%.

WNW flow off Lake Ontario will continue to allow lake effect snow
(LES) over Upstate NY today with upslope snow over the Adirondacks,
northern Greens, and Whites. Day 1 PWPF for >4" are 20-40% over the
southern Tug Hill down through Syracuse and Utica as well as over
the Presidential Range in NH (which are repeated for Day 2 on
continued upslope flow).

A northern Alberta Clipper tracks over Ontario on Sunday, reaching
northern NY/New England Sunday night. Day 3 PWPF for >4" is around
20% for the northwest facing Adirondacks.


...Central Plains through the Midwest to the North-Central Appalachians...
Day 1...

The leading shortwave trough from Low pressure over the West is now
over northeast CO and will eject east through the Midwest today on
a strengthening WSWly jet. Robust, but narrow banding continues
across northern Neb/IA early this morning, and shifts east over
Chicago this afternoon. However, the wave is being sheared and the
surface low is filling, so the banding intensity should continue to
wane as it tracks east. Sufficient overlap of synoptic ascent
through the left-exit of the jet streak aloft, 850-600mb
frontogenesis, and ample Gulf-sourced moisture will continue to
drive the snow bands that should see rates drop to moderate by
mid-morning. PWPF for additional snow >2" after 12Z are 30-60% from
northeast Neb across north-central IA and along the IL/WI border.
Snow tonight reaches western PA and the central Appalachians where
there are 20-40% PWPF for >2".


...Four Corners States through Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles...
Days 1-2...

A closed low over over the southern CA border is at the base of the
still positively-tilted trough over the West. This low tracks over
southern AZ today and NM tonight before moving over the TX
Panhandle on Saturday. Further reinforcing troughs will slow the
progress east and prolong the snow fall over AZ terrain today and
the southern Rockies onto the southern High Plains tonight into
Saturday. Snow levels hover in the 4000-5000 ft range over the
Southwest, but start around 6000ft this evening over the I-25
corridor near the CO/NM border/Raton Mesa. Day 1 PWPF for >8" are
50-90% along the Mogollon Rim/White Mtns, and over the southern San Juans/Sangre de Cristos including the Raton Mesa.

Decent dynamics make for snow levels around 3500ft in the TX
Panhandle in banding on the north side of the sfc low. Snow
probabilities have risen here with Day 1.5 PWPF for >4" 40-70%
over the TX/OK Panhandles and over 80% in northeast NM.


...Western Washington...
Days 2-3...

A hearty plume of Pacific moisture tracks into western WA ahead of
the next low dropping south from the Gulf of Alaska Saturday
through Sunday night. Snow levels are generally around 4000ft
through Sunday in the WA Cascades before dropping to 2000ft Sunday
night under the trough axis. Day 2.5 PWPF for >6" is limited to the
highest Olympics/northern WA Cascades, but the Day 3 drops down to
pass level with greater coverage of >40% probabilities.


Jackson

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FOUS11 KWBC 080840
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
340 AM EST Sat Mar 8 2025

Valid 12Z Sat Mar 08 2025 - 12Z Tue Mar 11 2025

...Southern Rockies through Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles into western
Oklahoma... Day 1...

Closed low over AZ/NM border will slowly fill as it shifts east to
northwest TX today and along the Red River tonight. A strong SWly
jet streak persists over west TX today, aiding ascent as the
associated surface trough shifts east. This deep layer lift and
increasing moisture will result in expanding precip over N Texas
and OK through this afternoon with an axis of moderate to heavy
precipitation across the TX Panhandle through central OK. Height
falls under the upper low and dynamic cooling in the banding should
allow snow to fall/accumulate over the TX Panhandle into western
OK this afternoon. 00Z HREF mean snow rates are generally not that
high, up to 0.75"/hr, though diurnal effects are probably causing
some of the limitation. Generally speaking, if snow bands become
strong/heavy enough they can overcome diurnal effects and
accumulate. Day 1 PWPF for >4" is 40-60% across the central TX
Panhandle, particularly along the I-40 corridor. Some probabilities
for >2" extend east into OK, but really it comes down to the
banding. The NAMnest likely remains too heavy/snowy, but the recent
HRRRs have trended a bit colder/snowier and a blend of these two
models is probably a decent approach.


...Washington to northwest Montana...
Days 2-3...

A deepening trough from low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska will
interact with a building ridge across the Desert Southwest to
funnel strengthening S/SW flow into western WA tonight, expanding
east to the northern Rockies through Monday. A weak shortwave and
accompanying vorticity lobe will swing onshore Sunday evening, and
along with the right entrance of a jet streak over Canada, enhance
lift. This will result in increasing wintry precipitation over the
WA Cascades and Olympics, pivoting into the Northern Rockies Sunday
night. Snow levels on the WA Cascades will generally be around
4000 ft during the heaviest precipitation, but will crash to as low
as 1500 ft just before precip ends Monday morning. This combined
with the transient nature of forcing suggests most of the impactful
snow will remain above pass levels, but Day 2 WPC probabilities
for >6" are 70-90% in the WA Cascades, with Day 2.5 probs 30-60%
for the Lewis Range in Glacier NP.


The probability of significant icing is less than 10 percent.


Jackson


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FOUS11 KWBC 090846
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
446 AM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Valid 12Z Sun Mar 09 2025 - 12Z Wed Mar 12 2025


...Upstate New York and Northern New England...
Day 1...

A clipper currently crossing into Ontario will track across
northern New England late tonight. Some Great Lake moisture will be
present in the otherwise continental airmass. Upslope flow onto the
Adirondacks and northern Greens/Whites will lead to snow tonight
with potential for 0.5"/hr snow rates per the 00Z HREF. Given a
weaker clipper will cross this morning, snow from both has Day 1
PWPF for >6" of 30-70% in the highest terrain.


...Washington State to Northwest Montana...
Day 1...

Northern stream shortwave trough crosses WA this evening and
northern MT late tonight. The transitive nature of the trough
combined with modest available moisture will limit total
precipitation, but heavy snow accumulations are still likely above
4000-5000 ft. Day 1 WPC snow probabilities are above 70% for 6+
inches in the higher northern WA Cascades, generally above pass
level, and 30-60% in the higher ridges around Glacier NP. Precip
from this trough quickly cuts off Monday morning across the
Northwest.


...Northwest and California...
Day 3...

A much stronger trough amplifies as it digs off the West Coast
Tuesday night. Enhanced moisture and height falls from the
approaching trough allow moderate precip to cross the PacNW coast
Tuesday night. Snow levels at onset will be near 3500ft in WA,
4500ft in OR, and 5000ft in CA, dropping thereafter through
Wednesday ahead of the trough axis. Particularly heavy snow is
expected in California in noted by Key Messages found on the wpc
website. Further information can also be found in the medium range
discussion (PMDEPD) and from local WFO products.

The probability of significant icing is less than 10 percent.

Jackson

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FOUS11 KWBC 110849
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
449 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Valid 12Z Tue Mar 11 2025 - 12Z Fri Mar 14 2025


...The West...
Days 1-3...

...Impactful heavy snow for most California mountain ranges
Wednesday into Thursday, then mostly the southern Intermountain
West and Rockies late week. Please see current Key Messages linked
below...

A strong northern stream trough currently rounding a cold-core low
over the Gulf of Alaska will further strengthen as it dives south
off the West Coast through Wednesday. The base of the trough
continues to dig south from the Central to Southern California
Coasts Thursday before ejecting east over the Four Corners Thursday
night and re-developing into a deep low over the south-central
Plains Friday.

Mountain snow begins tonight as moisture streams in ahead of the
trough axis along the length of the Cascade Range through the
Siskiyou/Shasta and northern Sierra Nevada. Day 1 snow
probabilities for >6" are 30-70% in the WA Cascades which will
expand and increase for Day 2 as snow rates increase to moderate
and snow levels drop below many Cascades passes.

This moisture surge shifts inland over CA Wednesday through
Wednesday night with the now heavy precipitation axis shifting
south with the base of the trough with snow levels generally 5000
to 6000ft at the onset of heavy snow. Height falls from the
approaching trough axis allow snow levels to drop Wednesday
afternoon through night along the Sierra Nevada with heavy snow as
low as 4,500ft in elevation before rates decrease (as low levels
further drop). The cooling column and ample moisture should result
in extreme hourly snowfall rates of 2-4"/hr in these ranges. The
combination of heavy/wet snow and increasing winds also posing a
potential risk for scattered areas of power outages and tree
damage. Day 2 snow probabilities for >18" are 50-99% in the
Shasta/Siskiyou and along the length of the higher Sierra Nevada.
1 to 4ft can generally be expected above about 6000ft.

Heavy snow will also reach the Transverse Ranges in Southern
California Wednesday night through Thursday morning with snow
levels dropping from around 6000 to 4000ft. Day 2.5 WPC snow
probabilities are 50-90% for the higher San Gabriel and San
Bernardino Ranges. 00Z Wed

East of the Pacific Mountain ranges, the expansive swath of
Pacific moisture will expand well inland Wednesday night through
Thursday night. The heaviest inland snowfall is likely to occur on
Thursday as the powerful cold front sweeps across Nevada, Utah, and
northern Arizona before shifting across Colorado and New Mexico
Thursday night. Day 3 snow probabilities for >8" are 40-80% over
the central and southern NV ranges, much of Utah terrain, the
Kaibab Plateau north of the Grand Canyon, along the Mogollon Rim to
the White Mtns of AZ, and the San Juans of southwest CO. This low
rapidly re-develops Friday over the south-central Plains.

The next wave quickly shifts toward the OR/CA border Thursday night
on a powerful NWly jet. Further info on the redeveloping low over
the Plains and the next wave into the West Coast can be found in
the WPC medium range discussion (PMDEPD), and from local WFOs.


The probability of significant icing is less than 10 percent.

Jackson


...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect and linked below...

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/LatestKeyMessage_1.png

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FOUS11 KWBC 160723
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
323 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Valid 12Z Sun Mar 16 2025 - 12Z Wed Mar 19 2025

...Great Lakes... Day 1...

Guidance continues to intensify secondary low pressure developing
across the Ohio Valley early this morning downstream of a potent
shortwave trough emerging from the MS VLY. The resulting
intensification of this surface low is partly due to more
impressive downstream ridging interacting with the shortwave as it
develops a negative tilt over MO/IL/IN. Height falls and the LFQ of
an almost due-north advecting jet streak will help lower surface
pressures, and the the surface low is progged to deepen rapidly as
it lifts across the L.P. of MI and into Ontario province.

Moisture downstream of this surface low will be impressive, with
isentropic ascent lifting north from the Gulf surging PWs to above
the 99th percentile across the Mid-Atlantic, with the increasing
cyclonic flow pushing the accompanying theta-e ridge westward into
Michigan as a modest TROWAL. The overlap of this TROWAL with an
intensifying deformation axis will result in impressive omega,
partially driven by an intersection of fgen into the DGZ, to cause
rapid cooling of the column and resultant heavy snowfall. The
system is progressive off to the northeast, so the duration of
heavy snow is likely to be limited, but both the HREF and WPC
prototype snowband tool indicate a corridor of 1+"/hr snowfall
rates across the western L.P. for the first 6-10 hours of the
forecast. While the intensity has gotten stronger with recent model
runs, the placement has been quite consistent, and despite
antecedent conditions that are not favorable for snow
accumulations, these intense rates should still result in several
inches of snowfall as reflected by WPC probabilities for 2+ inches
that range from 10-30% near Chicago, IL, to above 70% near Traverse
City, MI, with 4-6" possible in the vicinity of the latter.

...The West... Days 1-3...

The period begins with the Pacific Coast sandwiched between an
anomalous ridge to the east across the Intermountain West, and an
amplifying trough well to the west over the Pacific Ocean. Between
these two features, pinched mid-level flow will surge moisture
eastward into the Pacific Northwest, with IVT progged to approach
750 kg/m/s, funneling along a cold front and focused into OR. As
the upstream trough over the Pacific deepens and pivots eastward,
it will shed periodic lobes of vorticity into the Northwest, with
an accompanying surface low likely moving towards the OR/CA
border at the start of D2 /12Z Monday/. This surface low will
briefly intensify ascent (which will already be impressive through
height falls, PVA, upslope flow, and LFQ jet-level diffluence),
while also pushing the strongest moisture channel southward into
CA. While this suggests the highest PW anomalies will pivot south
as well towards the Sierra, sufficient upper level flow will
maintain elevated moisture well inland through D2, providing the
impetus for continued moderate to heavy snowfall across the terrain as
far east as the NW WY ranges.

For D1, the heaviest snowfall is likely within the plume of highest
IVT along the cold front from the OR Cascades eastward into the
Salmon River/Sawtooth ranges, and south into northern CA and the
Sierra. Here, WPC probabilities are high (>70%) for more than 8
inches of snow, with locally 2-3 feet possible in the Cascades and
near the Shasta/Trinity region, although snow-levels indicate the
heaviest accumulations will remain above 5000 ft before falling in
tandem with weakening snow intensity. During D2, the heaviest snow
becomes primarily focused in the Sierra where a high risk (>70%)
is progged by WPC probabilities for more than 12 inches, leading to
2-day snowfall as much as 2-4 feet in the higher elevations above
4000 ft. This will still result in significantly impacted travel
across the Sierra passes Monday into Tuesday.

Most of the forcing and moisture advect east by D3, so heavy snow
should wane across much of the West as it focuses instead into the
Central Rockies, but additional snowfall of a few inches is
possible (10-30%) in the Wasatch and Northern Rockies.

...Central Rockies to the Central Plains... Days 2-3...

The next in this impressive series of significant low pressure
systems to impact the Plains will develop late Monday in the
Central Rockies and then strengthen into the Central Plains Tuesday.

This system will initially develop downstream of a large trough
which will cross out of CA and the Great Basin, reaching the Four
Corners states Tuesday morning. Downstream height falls and PVA
will help drive large scale ascent into the region, which will be
additionally enhanced by a subtropical jet streak strengthening
through the primary trough axis. As this jet streak pivots
poleward, the LFQ will overlap with the mid-level height falls to
help drive surface pressure falls, and lee cyclogenesis the latter
portion of D2 /after 00Z Tuesday/. However, this jet streak will
outrun the primary forcing in response to vorticity shedding
rapidly to the east, with secondary troughing and a more
pronounced, negatively tilted, trough developing over the Central
High Plains later Tuesday. This will result in secondary jet streak development, with even more impressive diffluence overlapping the
more structured height falls/mid-level divergence. It is this
secondary development around 00Z Wednesday that will potentially
become a powerful cyclone with heavy snow across the Central Plains
and into the Upper Midwest by the end of the forecast period.

Although the first low is weaker, it will interact with a cold
front dropping out of the interior Northwest, leading to some
enhanced ascent through fgen and upslope flow across Wyoming on D2.
Moisture streaming into the wave from the E/SE, as well as aloft
from the S/SW will manifest as precipitation across WY, but with
the heaviest snowfall likely occurring in the terrain of the Big
Horns, NW WY ranges, and along the axis of greatest fgen over
N-central WY D2. However, total snowfall is expected to be modest
this period except above 4000 ft in the NW WY ranges and Big Horns,
where WPC probabilities for 6+ inches are above 70%.

Then during D3, snowfall becomes much more expansive and heavy as
the secondary, stronger, low develops and spreads snow from the
Central Rockies into the Central Plains. There is still
considerable placement and intensity uncertainty as reflected by
broad spread in the D3-D4 clusters, but the GFS members appear to
be the deepest and fastest solutions, with the CMC/ECMWF ensembles
supporting slightly less spread and are favored at this time. With
significant spread still in place, WPC probabilities are somewhat
compromised, but still support a high risk (>70%) of 6+ inches from
the Wind Rivers through the Laramie Range and into much of the CO
Rockies where heavy snow rates are likely both through
fgen/upslope flow. Farther east, increasing deformation over the
Central Plains by the end of the period will result in increasing
coverage of heavy snowfall, and while current WPC probabilities for
4+ inches are only around 10% across NE/KS, these will likely
increase and spread northeast into D4.

Additionally, as this secondary low intensifies, the pressure
gradient is progged to become quite intense, regardless of the
model preference, and WSSI-P is already featuring a widespread
30-50% probability of moderate blowing snow impacts, suggesting
the potential for near-blizzard conditions in some areas, but those
details still need to be ironed out as the event approaches.

Weiss

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FOUS11 KWBC 200657
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
257 AM EDT Thu Mar 20 2025

Valid 12Z Thu Mar 20 2025 - 12Z Sun Mar 23 2025


...Pacific and Interior Northwest...
Days 1-3...

Progressive pattern out of the North Pacific will maintain an
unsettled period for the Pacific Northwest into the northern
Rockies. Initial front has moved past the Cascades as of early this
morning and will continue eastward across the Divide later today.
Next system will be forced by a modestly strong incoming jet
(130kts) tonight with westerly flow focusing into the Cascades,
followed by height falls from the northwest (southwestern Canada)
late Fri into early Sat. That system will dig much farther west out
ahead of incoming ridging into WA/OR, finally setting up some
drier periods on Saturday.

Low snow levels in the Cascades of around 2000-3000ft this morning
will rise through the day and overnight to around 3500-4500ft
(north to south) coincident with the next surge of moisture. Snow
levels will fall again late Fri into early Sat as the Canadian
height falls push into WA then into northern ID, down to around
1500-3000ft from north to south as the precipitation gradually
ends.

Three-day totals of at least 12 inches of snow are likely (>70%
chance) above 3500-4500ft or so from north to south along the
Cascades with some higher elevations receiving more than 2-3 ft.
Significant snow is also possible at many passes given the lower
snow levels. There is a >60% chance of at least 8 inches of snow
above 2500-3000ft or so. Farther east, significant snow in excess
of 12 inches is likely (>70% chance) across the Blue Mountains, central/northern Idaho, northwestern Montana, and into western
Wyoming. The southern extent of the snow will clip northern Utah
and the CO Rockies as well with light/modest amounts near 6 inches
(UT) and nearing 12 inches into CO, especially above 10,000ft.


...Upper Midwest...
Day 3...

The system exiting the High Plains late Sat will continue to dig
into the northern Plains overnight into early Sun. Low pressure
will coalesce over eastern SD Saturday evening and lift into MN
thereafter, bringing WAA-driven snow to northeastern MN, northern
WI, and the western U.P. of Michigan. Amounts will generally be
light through 12Z Sun, perhaps 1-2.5", and the probability of at
least 4 inches is less than 10%. Additional accumulation is likely
beyond this forecast period.


...Great Lakes/Appalachians/Northeast...
Days 1-2...

Exiting system responsible for blizzard conditions over the
central Plains will move into Canada with snow ending over Michigan
this afternoon. Additional snow accumulations will be light (an
inch or so). To the south, colder air will change rain to snow over
the central/southern Appalachians with upslope-driven
accumulations persisting into early Friday. Several inches of snow
are possible at the higher elevations above 3500ft, but WPC
probabilities for at least 4 inches are low (10-40%) along the
TN/NC border. By day 2, low pressure over Cape Cod early Fri will
lift into Nova Scotia with backside snow over northern New England,
but mostly at higher elevations above 2500ft and amounts will
generally be light (<3 inches). The highest peaks of the White
mountains may see more than 4 inches (probabilities generally
10-50%).


For days 1-3, the probability of significant icing of at least
0.10" is less than 10 percent across the CONUS.


Fracasso

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FOUS11 KWBC 210713
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
313 AM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Valid 12Z Fri Mar 21 2025 - 12Z Mon Mar 24 2025

...Northeast...
Day 1...

Low pressure near Cape Cod this morning will move through the Gulf
of Maine and into Nova Scotia this afternoon, helping to draw in
colder air on the back side of the exiting precipitation shield.
Rain will change to snow from west to east with some light
accumulation over most areas, but the higher terrain of the White
Mountains may see a few inches. There, WPC probabilities of at
least 4 inches of snow are 10-40%. In addition, there is a
possibility of some modest snow amounts over eastern Maine outside
the higher terrain as the low deepens in the Gulf of Maine this
afternoon. Snow will end by midnight over eastern Maine.


...Pacific/Interior Northwest to Central Rockies...
Days 1-3...

Onshore flow continues in the PacNW with a due east jet off the
northeast Pacific aimed into WA/OR. Current jet max along the
Columbia River will continue eastward this morning, but another
will be right on its heels which will promote a moisture plume into
the OR/WA Cascades this afternoon/evening. Snow levels around
3000-5000 ft will still impact the passes today. Snow will lessen
into day 2 (Sat) as height falls dig into the northern Rockies,
which will continue eastward into day 3. By then, upper ridging
will move into the PacNW with a system into the southern AK
Panhandle, allowing snow levels to rise much higher to above 6000ft
Sunday afternoon into early Monday. Three-day totals of at least
12 inches of snow are likely (>70% chance) above 4000ft or so but
primarily on day 1.

West-to-east jet will continue to advance the moisture plume into
the northern Rockies, favoring the Blue, Sawtooth, Bitterroots,
Lewis Range, Absaroka, and Tetons through Saturday morning.
Elevations above 5,000ft in the Blue, Sawtooth, Bitterroots, and
Lewis Range have at least a 70% chance of receiving at least 12
inches of snow through tomorrow morning. Probabilities are a little
lower to the south (Absarokas and Tetons), but many areas will
still see at least 8 inches of snow (>70% chance above 7000ft or so).

On the south side of the jet and moisture plume, northern UT into
the CO Rockies will likely see at least 8 inches of snow above
9000ft or so (>70% chance), starting later tonight into Saturday
then ending Saturday night.


...Upper Midwest & Great Lakes...
Days 2-3...

Height falls associated with a shortwave exiting Montana Saturday
evening will continue to deepen into MN by Sunday morning in
response to the amplification of the upper pattern upstream. Low
pressure over SD will track eastward into MN with broad WAA ahead
of it over the Upper Midwest. Surface temperatures will be fairly
marginal with some areas starting as rain before mixing with and
changing to snow as the low strengthens on Sunday. As it does,
colder air will wrap around its northwest side over northern MN
moderate snow likely for a time Sunday afternoon. Models have been
wavering on the strength of the upper and sfc features (and thus
the QPF and ultimately the snow), but the eastern Arrowhead (Lake
Shore) may be in a favorable spot for heavier snow due to easterly
flow off Lake Superior. SLRs may start on the lower end below 10:1
then rise as colder air works its way in, but will also combat
afternoon solar insolation where rates are not as heavy. All told,
WPC probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow days 2-3 are at
least 10 percent generally north of I-94, with increasing
probabilities northward and northeastward into the Arrowhead. This
also includes northern WI into the U.P. of Michigan from a
combination of front-end WAA snow and wraparound snow after the low
passes through. Despite likely closing off up to 500mb, the system
will remain progressive but will not clear the area until after 12Z Mon.


For days 1-3, the probability of significant icing of at least
0.10" is less than 10 percent across the CONUS.


Fracasso


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