ACUS01 KWNS 200058
SWODY1
SPC AC 200057

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Valid 200100Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM INDIANA INTO
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND FAR WESTERN OHIO...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening mainly
over Indiana, parts of Kentucky and into Tennessee.

...IN into western KY...
A primary line of storms stretches from central IN into western KY
and TN as of 01Z, with secondary line of storms along the IL/IN
border in association with the cold front. Given the loss of heating
and relatively narrow zone of instability, the primary risk of
damaging gusts, hail, and perhaps a brief tornado should be greatest
over the next 1-2 hours, and will then wane within the 03-06Z time
frame. Even so, isolated strong storms cannot be ruled out as far
east as central OH and south into parts of MS and AL as the front
pushes through tonight.

For more in-depth information, see mesoscale discussions 249, 250,
and 251.

..Jewell.. 03/20/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 241957
SWODY1
SPC AC 241956

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...20Z Update...
Only minor changes to the thunderstorm forecast were made based on
current observations. Cold air remains in place across the lower
Mississippi Valley this afternoon with ongoing and expected
precipitation reinforcing this airmass through Sunday morning. As
previously mentioned, a slow improvement in the environment is
possible from southeast Louisiana into southern Mississippi and
western Alabama. Given the current observations, it may take longer
to move warm/moist air inland than expected. Confidence in this
occurring before 12Z Sunday remains too low for severe
probabilities. See the previous forecast for additional information.

..Wendt.. 01/24/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0942 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026/

...LA/MS/AL Overnight...
The primary surface cold front has pushed off the mid/upper TX Gulf
coast, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. As the primary
upper trough approaches later tonight, increasing southerly
low-level winds ahead of the front will transport Gulf moisture
northward into parts of southeast LA and southern MS/AL. This will
result in some destabilization and increase in low-level/deep-layer
vertical shear. Despite a slowly improving environment for strong
convection, the main upper forcing is expected to lag to the west of
this region until after 12z. Therefore, will maintain
less-than-marginal severe probabilities for the overnight period.

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